Trends for strategic foresight - Cristina Ferraz

Understanding the future:
trends for strategic foresight ©
Cristina Ferraz
UNDERSTANDING THE FUTURE:
TRENDS FOR
STRATEGIC FORESIGHT
Cristina Ferraz
@cristinaferraz
www.cristinaferraz.es
Image credit: Johnny Valley – Getty Images : Source
©
Cristina Ferraz

Cristina Ferraz
THE BASICS

Cristina Ferraz
If there were only a word to define the era we
are living in today,
it would be change.
And if it were to be a second word,
it would be fast.
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Cristina Ferraz
“We live in an age dominated
increasingly by creators
and empathizers,
pattern recognizers
and meaning makers”
Daniel Pink
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Cristina Ferraz
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Trend analysis is
not a crystal ball…

Cristina Ferraz
… but rather a mindset
to approach future challenges.
Trends are an essential part of
uncovering innovation opportunities.
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Cristina Ferraz
trend: (noun) a general direction in which something is developing or
changing.
(noun) a sign of change.
Trends are all the manifestations of change
observed everyday around us
Despite popular belief, a trend
is not something trendy.
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Cristina Ferraz
Trend research helps adapt to fast changing time and reinforce a
leadership position in the market by guiding innovation from
vision to downstream.
Trends are people focused and infuse meaning to propositions
by making sure people stay at the heart of the process from the
beginning to the end.
Adding higher level trends besides aesthetic trends helps
grounding the portfolio strategy and gives strategic advantage
over competitors.
1.
3.
Some facts on trends and business
2.

Cristina Ferraz
Visual assets
The photographs,
illustrations, and other visual
elements that reinforce the
understanding of the trend
and help infer its meaning.
*
* Verbal assets
The wording, expressions
and references that help
express the trend fully and
communicate it accurately.
Trends are made of…
Quantitative content
Statistics, data, factors… all
factual information that
supports and fleshes out a
particular trend.
Qualitative content
The content of a trend,
expressed verbally or
visually, that is not made of
factual data.
*
*

Cristina Ferraz
Demographics Politics
Sociocultural
Technology
Economy Environmental
Trends are influenced by…

Cristina Ferraz
Trends can be observed according areas….
Art
Architecture
Communication
Cinema
Food
Fashion
Health
Interiors Technology
Multimedia
Music
Product Design
Retail
Transportation
Advertising
Lifestyle
Gadgets
Literature
Cities
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Cristina Ferraz
The most relevant trend
classification for strategy is
according impact:
Sociocultural trends
5-10 years
Value change
Lifestyle trends
1-5 years
Behaviour change
Shifts
10-20 years
Paradigm changes
Market and proposition trends
0-1 year
Proposition change
Not all trends are the same…

Cristina Ferraz
Shifts – a change on paradigms
10-30 years
Maxi-level
A change in the basic assumptions within a given ruling theory of science, sociology
or culture. Think of a mega driver as a change from one way of thinking to another.
It's a revolution, a transformation, a sort of metamorphosis. They are the big
underlying forces that drive other trends.
E.g., the change from an industrial to an electronic era, or the urbanization of the world.
Sociocultural trends – a change on values
5-10 years
Mega-level
Sociocultural drivers or trends are culturally specific sociological tendencies, which
modify the value system, the moral, the ways of thinking. They are basically the way
for individuals and societies to adapt to the big drivers, or maxi trends. They signify a
change in society and culture.
E.g. : societal changes driven by the appearance of Generation D, the trend of smart homes, a shift
towards a raising awareness on oneself well-being.
Lifestyle trends – a change on behaviours
1 -5 years
Macro-level
Lifestyle trends are changes in consumer lifestyle and behaviour, driven by socio
cultural trends. They signify new practices within consumption, services, way of
living, technology and product usage, etc.
E.g.: bleisure or the merge of the personal and professional life, the rethink of luxury as conscious
consumption rather than opulence.
0-1 year
Micro-level
Market & proposition trends – a change on propositions
Proposition trends and market signals are concrete changes in characteristics of
products, spaces or services that support a behavioural change defined in a
lifestyle trend.
E.g.: the look and feel of industrial craft and the associated use of particular materials, the
appearance of pop up shops.

Cristina Ferraz
TRENDS AND BUSINESS
TRANSLATION

Cristina Ferraz
How are societies and
values changing?
How do consumers
behave?
In what kind of world
do we live in?
What happens in culture
and in markets?
5-10 years
Value change
Lifestyle trends
1-5 years
Behaviour change
Shifts
10-20 years
Paradigm changes
0-1 year
Proposition change
A trend framework for strategic foresight
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Cristina Ferraz
Image credit: http://drtglobal.com/
Mega level
5 – 10 year
Micro level
0 – 5 year
Macro level
1 – 5 year
Maxi level
10 – 30 year
Market & proposition trends
What happens in culture and in our market?
Lifestyle trends
How do consumers behave?
How are societies and values changing?
Shifts
In what kind of world do we live in?
Trends and their business relevance
Time scope Trend level Business relevance
Proposition development
With the goal to help articulate a proposition
within a strategy and from a particular insight.
Portfolio development
With the goal to provide consumer insights
and input for innovation
Strategy & vision development
With the goal to create a vision of the future
environment of your business

Cristina Ferraz
From understanding shifts to
proposition strategy
Micro level
0 – 5 year
Mega level
5 – 10 year
Maxi level
10 – 30 year
Macro level
1 – 5 year
Market & proposition trends
What happens in culture
and in our market?
Lifestyle trends
How do
consumers behave?
How are societies
and values changing?
Shifts
In what kind of world
do we live in?
One shift can imply and drive many trends (societal changes, consumer
behaviours and market trends) – allowing for a strategy to be developed at many
levels (portfolio/proposition/roadmap) to respond to a same shift coherently.
Understanding many shifts and its implications is an enabler
for navigational strategy.

Cristina Ferraz
To influenceTo innovate
Two ways to navigate disruption with trends
5-10 years
Value change
Lifestyle trends
1-5 years
Behaviour change
Shifts
10-20 years
Paradigm changes
0-1 year
Proposition change

Cristina Ferraz
5-10 years
Value change
Lifestyle trends
1-5 years
Behaviour change
Shifts
10-20 years
Paradigm changes
0-1 year
Proposition change
Goal:
To better anticipate on changes in
society and future needs of the
consumer and of the market place.
Challenge:
To interpret and apply the new insights
for a specific organization, in order to
influence and define its innovation
roadmap.
Trend use:
Understand trend causality and
implement trend insights to generate a
connected, E2E strategy.

Cristina Ferraz
5-10 years
Value change
Lifestyle trends
1-5 years
Behaviour change
Shifts
10-20 years
Paradigm changes
0-1 year
Proposition change
Goal:
To slowly influence the needs and
appetites of customers and open and
grow a new spot on the market place.
Challenge:
To roadmap the company’s innovation
and measure the influence and
acceptance of each roadmap’s step.
Trend use:
Understand trend causality and drive
bottom-up value and behavioural
change.

Cristina Ferraz
Why trends: To
understand societal and
value shifts and adapt
corporate strategy and
decision making
accordingly.
Why trends: To direct
innovation programs
and maintain value
proposition roadmaps
relevant to the
consumer needs.
Why trends: To
understand emerging
needs that can be the
basis of new, innovative
propositions..
Profiles’ source: Business Model Generation – A. Osterwalder, Y. Pigneur.
Trends: Who and why

Cristina Ferraz
Why trends: To better
assess the success of a
future investment and
complement analytical
strategies.
Why trends: To drive
execution across
multiple touchpoints
and make propositions
and messaging
coherent.
Why trends: To help
communicate with
consumers and refine
the proposition or
service to them.
Trends: Who and why

Cristina Ferraz
Why trends: To better
assess the success of a
future investment and
complement analytical
strategies.
Why trends: To drive
execution across
multiple touchpoints
and make propositions
and messaging
coherent.
Why trends: To help
communicate with
consumers and refine
the proposition or
service to them.
Trends: Who and why
Anyone in contact
with consumers

Cristina Ferraz
“The best way to predict the future
is to invent it.”
Alan Curtis Kay
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Cristina Ferraz
CRISTINA
FERRAZ
INNOVATION, DESIGN THINKING AND
CREATIVE STRATEGY
There is much more on trends and
how they can support business strategy
and help navigate disruption.
Should you want to know more, get in
touch!
Cristina Ferraz is a creative strategist,
innovation and design thinking expert with
more than 10 years of international experience
in helping companies determining what to
make and do, why do it and how to do it.
Her professional career expands across
corporate innovation, consultancy and
academics, fields in which she successfully
implements trend analysis for innovation and
strategic processes.
For more information visit
www.cristinaferraz.es

Trends for strategic foresight - Cristina Ferraz

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