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Trends for strategic foresight - Cristina Ferraz

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Struggling to navigate disruption? Here's how trends can help you.

Trend analysis has been increasingly winning a space in current business strategy as a methodology to provide qualitative insights that help identify new horizons and changing values.

Trend analysis helps adapt to fast-changing times and reinforce a leadership position in the market by guiding innovation from vision to downstream. Adding trend knowledge to any business toolkit gives strategic advantage to your proposition and promotes disruptive innovation. Trend foresight helps us discover emerging consumer behaviours and needs, spot qualitative growth opportunities, create vision landscapes on a determined subject, define critical emerging drivers shaping the future of industry and enrich decision-making from a qualitative and intuitive perspective.

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Trends for strategic foresight - Cristina Ferraz

  1. 1. Understanding the future: trends for strategic foresight ©  Cristina Ferraz UNDERSTANDING THE FUTURE: TRENDS FOR STRATEGIC FORESIGHT Cristina Ferraz @cristinaferraz www.cristinaferraz.es Image credit: Johnny Valley – Getty Images : Source ©  Cristina Ferraz
  2. 2. Understanding the future: trends for strategic foresight ©  Cristina Ferraz THE BASICS
  3. 3. Understanding the future: trends for strategic foresight ©  Cristina Ferraz If there were only a word to define the era we are living in today, it would be change. And if it were to be a second word, it would be fast. Image credit: http://www.digitizedchaos.com/2012/08/28/lego-creation-nation/
  4. 4. Understanding the future: trends for strategic foresight ©  Cristina Ferraz “We live in an age dominated increasingly by creators and empathizers, pattern recognizers and meaning makers” Daniel Pink Image credit: http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-xoKwX42SZ3c/UerQ2mV66uI/AAAAAAAAAvc/Dbpb5M-JsdE/s1600/Dot-to-dot-closeup.jpg
  5. 5. Understanding the future: trends for strategic foresight ©  Cristina Ferraz Image credit: http://www.gettyimages.in/detail/photo/fortune-teller-with-glowing-crystal-ball-royalty-free-image/157312038 Trend analysis is not a crystal ball…
  6. 6. Understanding the future: trends for strategic foresight ©  Cristina Ferraz … but rather a mindset to approach future challenges. Trends are an essential part of uncovering innovation opportunities. Image credit: http://www.gettyimages.in/detail/illustration/brain-made-of-gears-royalty-free-illustration/467333739
  7. 7. Understanding the future: trends for strategic foresight ©  Cristina Ferraz trend: (noun) a general direction in which something is developing or changing. (noun) a sign of change. Trends are all the manifestations of change observed everyday around us Despite popular belief, a trend is not something trendy. Image credit: http://www.blogtrw.com/2015/01/5-elementos-que-van-a-transformar-la-experiencia-hotelera/
  8. 8. Understanding the future: trends for strategic foresight ©  Cristina Ferraz Trend research helps adapt to fast changing time and reinforce a leadership position in the market by guiding innovation from vision to downstream. Trends are people focused and infuse meaning to propositions by making sure people stay at the heart of the process from the beginning to the end. Adding higher level trends besides aesthetic trends helps grounding the portfolio strategy and gives strategic advantage over competitors. 1. 3. Some facts on trends and business 2.
  9. 9. Understanding the future: trends for strategic foresight ©  Cristina Ferraz Visual assets The photographs, illustrations, and other visual elements that reinforce the understanding of the trend and help infer its meaning. * * Verbal assets The wording, expressions and references that help express the trend fully and communicate it accurately. Trends are made of… Quantitative content Statistics, data, factors… all factual information that supports and fleshes out a particular trend. Qualitative content The content of a trend, expressed verbally or visually, that is not made of factual data. * *
  10. 10. Understanding the future: trends for strategic foresight ©  Cristina Ferraz Demographics Politics Sociocultural Technology Economy Environmental Trends are influenced by…
  11. 11. Understanding the future: trends for strategic foresight ©  Cristina Ferraz Trends can be observed according areas…. Art Architecture Communication Cinema Food Fashion Health Interiors Technology Multimedia Music Product Design Retail Transportation Advertising Lifestyle Gadgets Literature Cities Image credit: https://24orecloud.ilsole24ore.com/guida-al-cloud/allattacco-dei-big-data-con-il-cloud/
  12. 12. Understanding the future: trends for strategic foresight ©  Cristina Ferraz The most relevant trend classification for strategy is according impact: Sociocultural trends 5-10 years Value change Lifestyle trends 1-5 years Behaviour change Shifts 10-20 years Paradigm changes Market and proposition trends 0-1 year Proposition change Not all trends are the same…
  13. 13. Understanding the future: trends for strategic foresight ©  Cristina Ferraz Shifts – a change on paradigms 10-30 years Maxi-level A change in the basic assumptions within a given ruling theory of science, sociology or culture. Think of a mega driver as a change from one way of thinking to another. It's a revolution, a transformation, a sort of metamorphosis. They are the big underlying forces that drive other trends. E.g., the change from an industrial to an electronic era, or the urbanization of the world. Sociocultural trends – a change on values 5-10 years Mega-level Sociocultural drivers or trends are culturally specific sociological tendencies, which modify the value system, the moral, the ways of thinking. They are basically the way for individuals and societies to adapt to the big drivers, or maxi trends. They signify a change in society and culture. E.g. : societal changes driven by the appearance of Generation D, the trend of smart homes, a shift towards a raising awareness on oneself well-being. Lifestyle trends – a change on behaviours 1 -5 years Macro-level Lifestyle trends are changes in consumer lifestyle and behaviour, driven by socio cultural trends. They signify new practices within consumption, services, way of living, technology and product usage, etc. E.g.: bleisure or the merge of the personal and professional life, the rethink of luxury as conscious consumption rather than opulence. 0-1 year Micro-level Market & proposition trends – a change on propositions Proposition trends and market signals are concrete changes in characteristics of products, spaces or services that support a behavioural change defined in a lifestyle trend. E.g.: the look and feel of industrial craft and the associated use of particular materials, the appearance of pop up shops.
  14. 14. Understanding the future: trends for strategic foresight ©  Cristina Ferraz TRENDS AND BUSINESS TRANSLATION
  15. 15. Understanding the future: trends for strategic foresight ©  Cristina Ferraz How are societies and values changing? How do consumers behave? In what kind of world do we live in? What happens in culture and in markets? Sociocultural trends 5-10 years Value change Lifestyle trends 1-5 years Behaviour change Shifts 10-20 years Paradigm changes Market and proposition trends 0-1 year Proposition change A trend framework for strategic foresight Image credit: http://drtglobal.com/
  16. 16. Understanding the future: trends for strategic foresight ©  Cristina Ferraz Image credit: http://drtglobal.com/ Mega level 5 – 10 year Micro level 0 – 5 year Macro level 1 – 5 year Maxi level 10 – 30 year Market & proposition trends What happens in culture and in our market? Lifestyle trends How do consumers behave? Sociocultural trends How are societies and values changing? Shifts In what kind of world do we live in? Trends and their business relevance Time scope Trend level Business relevance Proposition development With the goal to help articulate a proposition within a strategy and from a particular insight. Portfolio development With the goal to provide consumer insights and input for innovation Strategy & vision development With the goal to create a vision of the future environment of your business
  17. 17. Understanding the future: trends for strategic foresight ©  Cristina Ferraz From understanding shifts to proposition strategy Micro level 0 – 5 year Mega level 5 – 10 year Maxi level 10 – 30 year Macro level 1 – 5 year Market & proposition trends What happens in culture and in our market? Lifestyle trends How do consumers behave? Sociocultural trends How are societies and values changing? Shifts In what kind of world do we live in? One shift can imply and drive many trends (societal changes, consumer behaviours and market trends) – allowing for a strategy to be developed at many levels (portfolio/proposition/roadmap) to respond to a same shift coherently. Understanding many shifts and its implications is an enabler for navigational strategy.
  18. 18. Understanding the future: trends for strategic foresight ©  Cristina Ferraz To influenceTo innovate Two ways to navigate disruption with trends Sociocultural trends 5-10 years Value change Lifestyle trends 1-5 years Behaviour change Shifts 10-20 years Paradigm changes Market and proposition trends 0-1 year Proposition change
  19. 19. Understanding the future: trends for strategic foresight ©  Cristina Ferraz Sociocultural trends 5-10 years Value change Lifestyle trends 1-5 years Behaviour change Shifts 10-20 years Paradigm changes Market and proposition trends 0-1 year Proposition change To influenceTo innovate Two ways to navigate disruption with trends Goal: To better anticipate on changes in society and future needs of the consumer and of the market place. Challenge: To interpret and apply the new insights for a specific organization, in order to influence and define its innovation roadmap. Trend use: Understand trend causality and implement trend insights to generate a connected, E2E strategy.
  20. 20. Understanding the future: trends for strategic foresight ©  Cristina Ferraz Sociocultural trends 5-10 years Value change Lifestyle trends 1-5 years Behaviour change Shifts 10-20 years Paradigm changes Market and proposition trends 0-1 year Proposition change To influenceTo innovate Two ways to navigate disruption with trends Goal: To slowly influence the needs and appetites of customers and open and grow a new spot on the market place. Challenge: To roadmap the company’s innovation and measure the influence and acceptance of each roadmap’s step. Trend use: Understand trend causality and drive bottom-up value and behavioural change.
  21. 21. Understanding the future: trends for strategic foresight ©  Cristina Ferraz Why trends: To understand societal and value shifts and adapt corporate strategy and decision making accordingly. Why trends: To direct innovation programs and maintain value proposition roadmaps relevant to the consumer needs. Why trends: To understand emerging needs that can be the basis of new, innovative propositions.. Profiles’ source: Business Model Generation – A. Osterwalder, Y. Pigneur. Trends: Who and why
  22. 22. Understanding the future: trends for strategic foresight ©  Cristina Ferraz Why trends: To better assess the success of a future investment and complement analytical strategies. Why trends: To drive execution across multiple touchpoints and make propositions and messaging coherent. Profiles’ source: Business Model Generation – A. Osterwalder, Y. Pigneur. Why trends: To help communicate with consumers and refine the proposition or service to them. Trends: Who and why
  23. 23. Understanding the future: trends for strategic foresight ©  Cristina Ferraz Why trends: To better assess the success of a future investment and complement analytical strategies. Why trends: To drive execution across multiple touchpoints and make propositions and messaging coherent. Profiles’ source: Business Model Generation – A. Osterwalder, Y. Pigneur. Why trends: To help communicate with consumers and refine the proposition or service to them. Trends: Who and why Anyone in contact with consumers
  24. 24. Understanding the future: trends for strategic foresight ©  Cristina Ferraz “The best way to predict the future is to invent it.” Alan Curtis Kay Image credit: http://www.gettyimages.in/detail/photo/bsinessman-making-frame-with-fingers-rear-view-royalty-free-image/124275461
  25. 25. Understanding the future: trends for strategic foresight ©  Cristina Ferraz CRISTINA FERRAZ INNOVATION, DESIGN THINKING AND CREATIVE STRATEGY There is much more on trends and how they can support business strategy and help navigate disruption. Should you want to know more, get in touch! Cristina Ferraz is a creative strategist, innovation and design thinking expert with more than 10 years of international experience in helping  companies determining what to make and do, why do it and how to do it. Her professional career expands across corporate innovation, consultancy and academics, fields in which she successfully implements trend analysis for innovation and strategic processes. For more information visit www.cristinaferraz.es

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