Evaluation of the upcoming version of the global production system

1. Copernicus
Atmosphere
Monitoring
Service
CAMS General Assembly, Athens, 14-16 June 2016
S. Chabrillat (BIRA-IASB), H.J. Eskes (KNMI)
and the CAMS-84 team
Evaluation of the upcoming
version of the global
production system

2. 2
o-suite versus e-suite
• o-suite = operational run delivering global AN, FC of
Reactive Gases and Aerosols (GHG not considered here)
• Model = C-IFS (Cy41R1) - CB05 (from TM5 model)
• e-suite = experimental run  will be o-suite next week
• 2 FC/day: from AN at 0UTC and 12UTC. FC from 12UTC
available at 22UTC: 12h earlier than o-suite
• Same model, same vert. grid, same assim. obs.
• Horiz. resol. ↗ from T255 (~80km) to T511 (~40km)
 model better uses horiz. resol. of emissions
(0.5° anth+bio, 0.1°x0.1° fires)

3. 3
Evaluation approach
• Compare o-suite and e-suite vs same indep obs. as
quarterly reports, w/same methodology & for same species:
tropo O3, tropo NO2, CO, CH2O, aerosols, strato O3
• Schedule:
• End of March: quicklooks to ECMWF - in case major issues are found
which could imply aborting the e-suite run.
• 20 April: deadline for input (to KNMI & BIRA)
• 21-26 April: telecon to discuss findings, agree on conclusions
• 26-29 April: report to ECMWF, decision on upgrade
• week of 2 May: publish report including possible feedback

4. 4
Exemples of quicklooks used for “early green light”
CO vs MOPPIT, IASI
NO2 vs MAXDOAS
at Xianghe (Beijing)O3 vs surf GAW surf at HPB
O3 vs sondes: N. mid-lat bias Aer OD550 model comp.

5. 5
Evaluation of tropo O3 : vertical profiles
 biases slightly change but not significant
 more differences in lower layers
O3 sondes IAGOS aircrafts

6. 6
Evaluation of tropo O3 : surface
Use GAW, ESRL, AIRBASE networks
At most stations, no significant differences
(both underestimate obs over EU region)
except for stations located in complex terrain
where significantly improved results
likely due to the increased model resolution.
Largest improvements: Boulder, HPB
(close to mountain ranges) and
Mediterranean best case: Al Cornocales, Spain
Station (ESRL)

7. 7
o-suite vs e-suite model resolution around Al Cornocales
Current o-suite
grid does not
resolve Gibraltar
strait at latitude of
this station;
e-suite grid starts
doing it
80 km
40 km

8. 8
Evaluation of tropo NO2
• vs GOME-2 tropo column
avg over std regions
 no improvement
• vs DOAS at Xianghe
(near Beijing, high pollution):
significant improvement
from surface to 2km

9. 9
Evaluation of tropo CO
• no significant/consistent
improvement vs IAGOS
profiles or MOPITT, IASI
satellites or ground-based
FTIR (NDACC, TCCON)
• Exemple: IAGOS, 3 East Asia
airports  varied results
Evaluation of CH2O, strato O3
• no significant differences

10. 10
Evaluation of aerosols
• vs Aeronet sun
photometers: very similar.
• e-suite simulates slightly less
sea salt and dust AOD than
current o-suite.
• Maps of Angstrøm
coefficient (low values =
coarse particles = more dust)
confirm less dust in central
Asia in the e-suite.
• Maybe cause for slight
degradation of performance
(against AOD) in China?
• Elsewhere: no consistent
degradation/improvement.
e-suite o-suite
AOD
Angström

11. 11
• New version operational next week. Full eval report publised 29 April at
http://atmosphere.copernicus.eu/quarterly_validation_reports
• No significant differences should be expected
from this global production system upgrade. Exceptions:
• Decrease of dust aerosols in central Asia;
not in obs  slight degradation of performance
• Improvements may be expected close to surface
due to horiz resol increase (~80km  ~40km) especially in
• regions with complex terrain (O3 ; noted on Boulder, HPB)
• Highly polluted regions (NO2 ; noted in Xianghe)
• Good training for next model upgrade (expecting more impact!)
Conclusions