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CAMS GS Global Analyses


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How are global analyses, forecasts and re-analyses produced? What is the status of the global system?

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CAMS GS Global Analyses

  1. 1. How are global analyses, forecasts and re-analyses produced? Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service Richard Engelen (ECMWF) On behalf of CAMS30 team
  2. 2. OBSERVATIONS Metop-B GOME-2 Metop-A GOME-2 OMI SBUV OMI Ozone observations per 12 hours
  3. 3. ANALYSIS & FORECAST Full 3-D fields that are forecasted 5 days ahead.
  4. 4. CAMS SERVICE CHAIN Space Agencies In-situ component National scale CAMS
  5. 5. GLOBAL SERVICES Real-time Analyses AER, CHEM Forecasts AER, CHEM, GHG Delayed-mode Analyses GHG Reanalysis Analyses AER, CHEM, GHG Supplementary Analysis GFAS
  6. 6. GLOBAL SYSTEM C-IFS Observation operators Chemical module GHG module Aerosol module Chemical module Aerosol module Meteorology 4D-Var GHG module
  7. 7. Data Acquisition Data Assimilation Forecast Data Dissemination Interaction with data providers User support Validation Routine verification Routine monitoring Emissions GLOBAL SERVICE CHAIN
  8. 8. CURRENT STATUS • 80 km horizontal resolution • One 5-day forecasts per day • 00UTC forecast available before 22 UTC • 40 km horizontal resolution • Two 5-day forecasts per day • 12UTC forecast available before 22 UTC
  9. 9. GFAS AND GHG SYSTEMS GFAS currently provides daily estimates of global fire radiative power and fire emissions of many species. Aim is to better estimate diurnal cycle and forecasted emissions (links with Land and Emergency services) and fully embed in operational global system. GHG system analyses CO2 and CH4 5 days behind real-time and provides daily real-time 10-day forecasts of the same species. Aim is to merge the two systems and run them as close to real-time as observation availability allows.
  10. 10. CAMS REANALYSIS CAMS interim reanalysis MACC reanalysis MACC/CAMS real-time Control Using experience from MACC and CAMS-interim reanalyses, the 1st CAMS Reanalysis will start later this year. 2003 – 2017 All current species Additional observations Ozone score
  11. 11. USE OF GLOBAL SERVICES • Boundary conditions (CAMS, PANDA, HTAP,…) • Pollution and long-range transport on global scale (e.g., large wildfires, volcanos eruptions, dust storms) • Input for downscaling applications (e.g., smartphone apps) • Input for national forecasting services (e.g., dust, UV) • WMO warning advisory centres • Scientific community (field campaigns, scientific studies, ...) • ...
  12. 12. GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT Innovation distinguishes between a leader and a follower Steve Jobs • Use new satellite products: S3, S5p, OCO-2, S-NPP • Improved UV products (health) • More accurate surface aerosol and deposition (health, solar energy) • Nitrates (key link between chemistry and aerosol) • Stratospheric chemistry (ozone layer) • Volcanic eruptions (impact on air travel and climate) • More accurate methane emissions (monitoring of carbon cycle) • Increased resolution • …