The Need for Better Strategic Foresight CBS Competitiveness Day 2014 @ Copenhagen Business School

1. SEMINAR
Creating Better Strategic Foresight from Stakeholder Insights
September 8, 2014
The Need for Better Strategic Foresight
Torben Juul Andersen
Professor
Center for Global Strategic Responsiveness (CGSR)
Department of International Economics and management

2. 2
The Business Environment
“INDUSTRY”
Political and legal conditions
Social and demographic changes Technological shifts
Economic conditions
FIRM
Abrupt, Complex, Dynamic, Uncertain, Unpredictable, Unknown
What is going on?
Conflict zones, e.g., Ukraine,
Middle East, Syria, etc.
Trade embargos, regulation, etc. Financial and debt market crisis
The Internet …
An aging population in the west
New demand patterns
What are the implication?
© Andersen, T. J. (2014)

3. 3
Frontal lobes
Amygdala
Hippocampus
The New ’Brain’ Metaphor
Andersen, T.J. (2013), Strategic Management, Cambridge University Press.
Unexpected events happen
responsive actions are taken, and reactions observed → new insights!
Combining fast responsive actions and observations with slow forward-looking reasoning!
© Andersen, T. J. (2014)

4. 4
Who are the First to Know?
Does the information pass through the middle?
Top management?
… or the frontline employees?
The Chief Executive is the last
to know what is going on!
[Andy Grove]
© Andersen, T. J. (2014)

5. 5
Strategic Decision-Making
Forward-looking strategic planning considerations give ‘aspirations’ to strategic actions
Time
Top management:
Frontline managers & employees
Strategic planning discussions
Emerging strategic decisions
Dispersed strategic initiatives
Middle management:
© Andersen, T. J. (2014)

6. 6
Responsive Actions
Time
Top management:
Emerging strategic decisions
Dispersed strategic initiatives
Strategic planning discussions
Frontline managers & employees
Middle management:
Actions are taken in response to observed changes and provide new experiential ‘insights’
Does top management get these new insights in a timely and unbiased manner?
© Andersen, T. J. (2014)

7. 7
Interaction Between Top and Bottom
Level
Time
Frontline employees
the middle management layer
Top management
”INTERACTION”
Andersen, T.J. (2002), ’How to Reconcile the Strategy Dilemma?’, European Business Forum.
Other involved stakeholders
Get the information faster straight from the sources!
© Andersen, T. J. (2014)

8. 8
Central and Peripheral Processes
C
Strategic context
Create effective interaction between employees, and other stakeholders,
around the organizational periphery (P) and the executives at the center (C)
P
P
PP
P
Communication and
information processing
Communication and
information processing
Strategic context
Strategic context Strategic context
P
Andersen, T.J. (2013), Strategic Management, Cambridge University Press.
Individuals in (and around) the organization observe what is going on!
© Andersen, T. J. (2014)

9. 9
Conclusions
1) The business environment is increasingly uncertain
and unpredictable
2) The environmental context is evolving along the way
as we and others act
3) Individual stakeholders around the periphery, or in
the frontline, are the first to observe and sense new
developments
4) This information is not communicated effectively to
top management
5) But, this can be accomplished by employing
systematic data aggregation techniques
© Andersen, T. J. (2014)