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“GENERATING RENEWABLE ENERGY” TRACK
CLEANTECH INNOVATE – MARCH 20, 2018
Ben Lynch
Founder & Managing Partner
Tel.: +44 7852 211 278
ben.lynch@cleantechcapitaladvisors.com
LEVELISED COST OF ENERGY – THEN (2010)
2
Source: Ben Lynch
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Coal-fired
Naturalgas
Geothermal
Nuclear
CSP
PV
Solidwaste
Biomass
Landfillgas
Wind
Traditional Renewable
0
10
20
30
40
50
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
2032
2034
2036
2038
2040
2042
2044
2046
2048
2050
Electricity - retail
Electricity - wholesale
Photovoltaic
Wind
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
500
400
300
200
100
0
LCOE comparison [US$/MWh] LCOE trend [US$/MWh]
LEVELISED COST OF ENERGY – NOW (2018)
3
Source: Lazard
Renewable
Conventional
CLEAN ENERGY INVESTMENT(1) – WORLDWIDE [$BN]
4
https://www.ishares.com/uk/individual/en/products/251753/ishares-
global-government-bond-ucits-
etf?siteEntryPassthrough=true&locale=en_GB&userType=individual
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
1) Asset finance, Distributed generation, Public markets, VC/PE
Note:
Energy smart technologies: digital energy, smart grids, power storage, hydrogen & fuel cells, advanced transportation, energy efficiency (demand & supply side)
Other renewables: small hydro (< 50MW), marine energy generation
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
CLEAN ENERGY INVESTMENT(1) – UK [$BN]
5
https://www.ishares.com/uk/individual/en/products/251753/ishares-
global-government-bond-ucits-
etf?siteEntryPassthrough=true&locale=en_GB&userType=individual
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
1) Asset finance, Distributed generation, Public markets, VC/PE
Note:
Energy smart technologies: digital energy, smart grids, power storage, hydrogen & fuel cells, advanced transportation, energy efficiency (demand & supply side)
Other renewables: small hydro (< 50MW), marine energy generation
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
RENEWABLE ENERGY GENERATION – WW TECH $$
6
https://www.ishares.com/uk/individual/en/products/251753/ishares-
global-government-bond-ucits-
etf?siteEntryPassthrough=true&locale=en_GB&userType=individual
Source: CB Insights
RENEWABLE ENERGY GENERATION: TOP VCS
7
Source: CB Insights
SO WHAT WENT WRONG?
8
Source: Cleantech Capital Advisors
ChinaPolitics
Financial
Crisis
Oil Price
Too
Successful
Limited
Exits
Bankruptcies
Over-
Hyped
Shale
Gas
RENEWABLE ENERGY GENERATION: HYPE CURVE
9
Source: Gartner Group; Cleantech Capital Advisors
Plateau of Productivity
INVESTORS HAVE MOVED ON
10
Materials
Components
Systems
Software
Services
Hardware
Business
Model
2005-2010 2011-2015 2016+
“Cleantech 1.0” “Cleantech 2.0” “Cleantech 3.0”
Investor interest moving from narrow/broad vertical focus to horizontal enablers
Source: Cleantech Capital Advisors
SO: FUNDING YOUR REG COMPANY?
11
Source: Cleantech Capital Advisors
Software-
enabled
Alignment
with CVC
Niche
segment
Bootstrap /
Grants
Component
/ Material
Strong
Execution
Services Outsource
Production
…..
WHO WE ARE (CLEANTECH CAPITAL ADVISORS)
12
Expertise in Cleantech and Resource Efficiency
 Corporate finance advisory firm providing Strategic, Capital Raising and M&A (buy/sell) advice
 Despite sector challenges, CCA was established with the conviction that there is a large number of very exciting
emerging companies and investment opportunities in the space
 25+ years global technological, industry, strategy & financial experience in Cleantech & Resource Efficiency
 Focus on equity (enabling technologies)
Strong relationships with cleantech investors and industry participants
 Key relationships with international cleantech / resource efficiency oriented public equity, private equity,
venture capital, senior debt and project finance investors
 Longstanding relationships with leading corporate participants (pure-play, conglomerates)
 Based in London City but counterparty reach and transaction experience in Continental Europe (opening Paris
office during 2018); CCA can also project clients into other geographies
Senior-level dedicated attention throughout transaction process
 Clients receive dedicated attention of a senior CCA executive throughout the entire process
 CCA can fully prepare our client with all relevant sales and marketing materials, including teasers, management
presentations, information memoranda, models, roadshow coaching and rehearsals, and due diligence review
materials that are ready for a potential counterparty
Putting our clients first
 We provide a full suite of advisory services from pre transaction to closing. You can choose only the tasks you
need or have the entire process managed seamlessly
 CCA uses its extensive knowledge of relevant and active cleantech-oriented investors & corporates to ensure its
clients find the best strategic and financial outcome
13
Dedicated to Cleantech & Resource Efficiency growth
Ben Lynch
Managing Partner
Tel.: +44 7852 211 278
ben.lynch@cleantechcapitaladvisors.com
Skype: ben.lynch-jbl
London
15 Old Bailey
London EC4M 7EF
Paris
38 Boulevard Marbeau
75116 Paris

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Ben Lynch - Cleantech Capital Advisors Limited

  • 1. “GENERATING RENEWABLE ENERGY” TRACK CLEANTECH INNOVATE – MARCH 20, 2018 Ben Lynch Founder & Managing Partner Tel.: +44 7852 211 278 ben.lynch@cleantechcapitaladvisors.com
  • 2. LEVELISED COST OF ENERGY – THEN (2010) 2 Source: Ben Lynch 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 Coal-fired Naturalgas Geothermal Nuclear CSP PV Solidwaste Biomass Landfillgas Wind Traditional Renewable 0 10 20 30 40 50 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040 2042 2044 2046 2048 2050 Electricity - retail Electricity - wholesale Photovoltaic Wind 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 500 400 300 200 100 0 LCOE comparison [US$/MWh] LCOE trend [US$/MWh]
  • 3. LEVELISED COST OF ENERGY – NOW (2018) 3 Source: Lazard Renewable Conventional
  • 4. CLEAN ENERGY INVESTMENT(1) – WORLDWIDE [$BN] 4 https://www.ishares.com/uk/individual/en/products/251753/ishares- global-government-bond-ucits- etf?siteEntryPassthrough=true&locale=en_GB&userType=individual Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 1) Asset finance, Distributed generation, Public markets, VC/PE Note: Energy smart technologies: digital energy, smart grids, power storage, hydrogen & fuel cells, advanced transportation, energy efficiency (demand & supply side) Other renewables: small hydro (< 50MW), marine energy generation 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0
  • 5. CLEAN ENERGY INVESTMENT(1) – UK [$BN] 5 https://www.ishares.com/uk/individual/en/products/251753/ishares- global-government-bond-ucits- etf?siteEntryPassthrough=true&locale=en_GB&userType=individual Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 1) Asset finance, Distributed generation, Public markets, VC/PE Note: Energy smart technologies: digital energy, smart grids, power storage, hydrogen & fuel cells, advanced transportation, energy efficiency (demand & supply side) Other renewables: small hydro (< 50MW), marine energy generation 30 25 20 15 10 5 0
  • 6. RENEWABLE ENERGY GENERATION – WW TECH $$ 6 https://www.ishares.com/uk/individual/en/products/251753/ishares- global-government-bond-ucits- etf?siteEntryPassthrough=true&locale=en_GB&userType=individual Source: CB Insights
  • 7. RENEWABLE ENERGY GENERATION: TOP VCS 7 Source: CB Insights
  • 8. SO WHAT WENT WRONG? 8 Source: Cleantech Capital Advisors ChinaPolitics Financial Crisis Oil Price Too Successful Limited Exits Bankruptcies Over- Hyped Shale Gas
  • 9. RENEWABLE ENERGY GENERATION: HYPE CURVE 9 Source: Gartner Group; Cleantech Capital Advisors Plateau of Productivity
  • 10. INVESTORS HAVE MOVED ON 10 Materials Components Systems Software Services Hardware Business Model 2005-2010 2011-2015 2016+ “Cleantech 1.0” “Cleantech 2.0” “Cleantech 3.0” Investor interest moving from narrow/broad vertical focus to horizontal enablers Source: Cleantech Capital Advisors
  • 11. SO: FUNDING YOUR REG COMPANY? 11 Source: Cleantech Capital Advisors Software- enabled Alignment with CVC Niche segment Bootstrap / Grants Component / Material Strong Execution Services Outsource Production …..
  • 12. WHO WE ARE (CLEANTECH CAPITAL ADVISORS) 12 Expertise in Cleantech and Resource Efficiency  Corporate finance advisory firm providing Strategic, Capital Raising and M&A (buy/sell) advice  Despite sector challenges, CCA was established with the conviction that there is a large number of very exciting emerging companies and investment opportunities in the space  25+ years global technological, industry, strategy & financial experience in Cleantech & Resource Efficiency  Focus on equity (enabling technologies) Strong relationships with cleantech investors and industry participants  Key relationships with international cleantech / resource efficiency oriented public equity, private equity, venture capital, senior debt and project finance investors  Longstanding relationships with leading corporate participants (pure-play, conglomerates)  Based in London City but counterparty reach and transaction experience in Continental Europe (opening Paris office during 2018); CCA can also project clients into other geographies Senior-level dedicated attention throughout transaction process  Clients receive dedicated attention of a senior CCA executive throughout the entire process  CCA can fully prepare our client with all relevant sales and marketing materials, including teasers, management presentations, information memoranda, models, roadshow coaching and rehearsals, and due diligence review materials that are ready for a potential counterparty Putting our clients first  We provide a full suite of advisory services from pre transaction to closing. You can choose only the tasks you need or have the entire process managed seamlessly  CCA uses its extensive knowledge of relevant and active cleantech-oriented investors & corporates to ensure its clients find the best strategic and financial outcome
  • 13. 13 Dedicated to Cleantech & Resource Efficiency growth Ben Lynch Managing Partner Tel.: +44 7852 211 278 ben.lynch@cleantechcapitaladvisors.com Skype: ben.lynch-jbl London 15 Old Bailey London EC4M 7EF Paris 38 Boulevard Marbeau 75116 Paris

Editor's Notes

  1. Delighted to present perspectives on REG based on experience over past 15yrs Last year presented on negawatts (EE), this year MW By way of introduction, CCA is a CF-A in CT & RE sector WRT REG, in the past 5yrs we have helped companies in the PV, WP, BM sectors raise equity funding
  2. This is some analysis I did in 2010 around LCOE for WP & PV The reason I got excited in REG (esp. PV) 15yrs ago was experience in SC – cost curve (in that industry ‘Moore’s Law’) PV especially very expensive then: $125-300/MWh But seemed inevitable that PV & WP would reach cost parity with FF electricity pretty soon (depending on segment, geo …)
  3. Fast forward to today, and WP & PV very competitive in many cases now (depending on segment, geo …) For utility-scale talking about $30-50/MWh PV has clearly gone faster than anyone expected So WP & PV huge success stories
  4. And yet REG project investment has basically stagnated $300bn+/- (cyclical) since 2011 Within that WP & PV remain the stalwarts
  5. In the UK the REG situation is much worse; 2017 < 2009 We all have our views on why and I’m not going to go into that here … OfS WP will likely continue to grow (with some volatility); but the other technologies?
  6. This REG project situation is mirrored in the $$ invested in REG “tech” If a served (project) market isn’t really growing, why would VCs invest a lot? Again, most investment PV & WP
  7. Likewise, the previous leading VCs in REG tech have more-or-less disappeared from the scene in the sector Not that many participate anymore, and indeed some have just “gone” completely! …
  8. Lot’s of things went wrong – China, financial crisis, FF prices … But not all was bad – let’s not forget that the industry also suffered from its own success – higher-than-expected installations creating huge 20yr liabilities for governments, leading to reduction/elimination of FiTs For PV & WP ASPs more the problem than volumes -> is that success or failure?
  9. While PV & WP (and to an extent BM & ST) are well along the hype curve, others are stuck in the trough Who knows for sure if FC, marine, CSP will flat-line/die or take off?
  10. So investors have moved on When I started in this sector, it was all about PV & WP (“Cleantech 1.0”) Then there was a phase when investor subsector interest broadened, to include EE, SG, ES, WT … To a degree that hasn’t been a huge success either, especially for HW plays So now ‘de rigeur’ among CT investors is horizontal software-enabled business models Between you and me, I don’t know what SW runs without HW, but in many VCs’ minds “someone else has to fund the HW development”
  11. Given that sobering view, what should you do if your let’s face it HW-centric REG company needs funding? Well, there’s no silver bullet Some of the kind of things you can be doing to increase your changes of funding are: … And if you can get along like that, ultimately, when you get to a particular level of commercial maturity, it become much easier to fund “success” than “wannabe” So to conclude: - REG is here to stay - There will continue to be innovation in the REG sector - It won’t be easy to raise funding, but with the right strategy, it can be done - Now let’s see how our REG speakers do …