8. SO WHAT WENT WRONG?
8
Source: Cleantech Capital Advisors
ChinaPolitics
Financial
Crisis
Oil Price
Too
Successful
Limited
Exits
Bankruptcies
Over-
Hyped
Shale
Gas
9. RENEWABLE ENERGY GENERATION: HYPE CURVE
9
Source: Gartner Group; Cleantech Capital Advisors
Plateau of Productivity
10. INVESTORS HAVE MOVED ON
10
Materials
Components
Systems
Software
Services
Hardware
Business
Model
2005-2010 2011-2015 2016+
“Cleantech 1.0” “Cleantech 2.0” “Cleantech 3.0”
Investor interest moving from narrow/broad vertical focus to horizontal enablers
Source: Cleantech Capital Advisors
11. SO: FUNDING YOUR REG COMPANY?
11
Source: Cleantech Capital Advisors
Software-
enabled
Alignment
with CVC
Niche
segment
Bootstrap /
Grants
Component
/ Material
Strong
Execution
Services Outsource
Production
…..
12. WHO WE ARE (CLEANTECH CAPITAL ADVISORS)
12
Expertise in Cleantech and Resource Efficiency
Corporate finance advisory firm providing Strategic, Capital Raising and M&A (buy/sell) advice
Despite sector challenges, CCA was established with the conviction that there is a large number of very exciting
emerging companies and investment opportunities in the space
25+ years global technological, industry, strategy & financial experience in Cleantech & Resource Efficiency
Focus on equity (enabling technologies)
Strong relationships with cleantech investors and industry participants
Key relationships with international cleantech / resource efficiency oriented public equity, private equity,
venture capital, senior debt and project finance investors
Longstanding relationships with leading corporate participants (pure-play, conglomerates)
Based in London City but counterparty reach and transaction experience in Continental Europe (opening Paris
office during 2018); CCA can also project clients into other geographies
Senior-level dedicated attention throughout transaction process
Clients receive dedicated attention of a senior CCA executive throughout the entire process
CCA can fully prepare our client with all relevant sales and marketing materials, including teasers, management
presentations, information memoranda, models, roadshow coaching and rehearsals, and due diligence review
materials that are ready for a potential counterparty
Putting our clients first
We provide a full suite of advisory services from pre transaction to closing. You can choose only the tasks you
need or have the entire process managed seamlessly
CCA uses its extensive knowledge of relevant and active cleantech-oriented investors & corporates to ensure its
clients find the best strategic and financial outcome
13. 13
Dedicated to Cleantech & Resource Efficiency growth
Ben Lynch
Managing Partner
Tel.: +44 7852 211 278
ben.lynch@cleantechcapitaladvisors.com
Skype: ben.lynch-jbl
London
15 Old Bailey
London EC4M 7EF
Paris
38 Boulevard Marbeau
75116 Paris
Editor's Notes
Delighted to present perspectives on REG based on experience over past 15yrs
Last year presented on negawatts (EE), this year MW
By way of introduction, CCA is a CF-A in CT & RE sector
WRT REG, in the past 5yrs we have helped companies in the PV, WP, BM sectors raise equity funding
This is some analysis I did in 2010 around LCOE for WP & PV
The reason I got excited in REG (esp. PV) 15yrs ago was experience in SC – cost curve (in that industry ‘Moore’s Law’)
PV especially very expensive then: $125-300/MWh
But seemed inevitable that PV & WP would reach cost parity with FF electricity pretty soon (depending on segment, geo …)
Fast forward to today, and WP & PV very competitive in many cases now (depending on segment, geo …)
For utility-scale talking about $30-50/MWh
PV has clearly gone faster than anyone expected
So WP & PV huge success stories
And yet REG project investment has basically stagnated $300bn+/- (cyclical) since 2011
Within that WP & PV remain the stalwarts
In the UK the REG situation is much worse; 2017 < 2009
We all have our views on why and I’m not going to go into that here …
OfS WP will likely continue to grow (with some volatility); but the other technologies?
This REG project situation is mirrored in the $$ invested in REG “tech”
If a served (project) market isn’t really growing, why would VCs invest a lot?
Again, most investment PV & WP
Likewise, the previous leading VCs in REG tech have more-or-less disappeared from the scene in the sector
Not that many participate anymore, and indeed some have just “gone” completely! …
Lot’s of things went wrong – China, financial crisis, FF prices …
But not all was bad – let’s not forget that the industry also suffered from its own success – higher-than-expected installations creating huge 20yr liabilities for governments, leading to reduction/elimination of FiTs
For PV & WP ASPs more the problem than volumes -> is that success or failure?
While PV & WP (and to an extent BM & ST) are well along the hype curve, others are stuck in the trough
Who knows for sure if FC, marine, CSP will flat-line/die or take off?
So investors have moved on
When I started in this sector, it was all about PV & WP (“Cleantech 1.0”)
Then there was a phase when investor subsector interest broadened, to include EE, SG, ES, WT …
To a degree that hasn’t been a huge success either, especially for HW plays
So now ‘de rigeur’ among CT investors is horizontal software-enabled business models
Between you and me, I don’t know what SW runs without HW, but in many VCs’ minds “someone else has to fund the HW development”
Given that sobering view, what should you do if your let’s face it HW-centric REG company needs funding?
Well, there’s no silver bullet
Some of the kind of things you can be doing to increase your changes of funding are: …
And if you can get along like that, ultimately, when you get to a particular level of commercial maturity, it become much easier to fund “success” than “wannabe”
So to conclude:
- REG is here to stay
- There will continue to be innovation in the REG sector
- It won’t be easy to raise funding, but with the right strategy, it can be done
- Now let’s see how our REG speakers do …