1. Theorising an instrument for a
‘Low Carbon Bretton Woods’
Dr. Michele Stua
SPRU – Brighton, 2 May 2014

2. Index
 Frameworks
 The instrument: Global Emissions
Reduction (GER)
 Effects analysis
 Open elements and conclusions

3. Frameworks
 Contextual framework
– Climate Change (CC)
– Persistent regional economic crises
– Current living systems' sustainability
– Enduring crisis of the current economic mode
 Policy framework
– Climate change negotiations
 Theoretical framework
– Multi-level perspective
– Transition management

4. Persistent problems
“1. The rebound effects from energy efficiency
improvements are significant and limit the potential
for decoupling energy consumption from economic
growth. 2. The contribution of energy to productivity
improvements and economic growth has been greatly
underestimated. 3. Sustainability requires both
improved efficiency and a principle of 'sufficiency'.
4. Sustainability is incompatible with continued
economic growth in rich countries. 5. A zero-growth
economy is incompatible with a fractional reserve
banking system”.
Sorrell, 2010, pp. 1784-1785

5. Persistent problems
“The world today is very different from the one faced
by the global leaders who met to plan the post-war
economy in 1944 in Bretton Woods [...]. The emphasis
on GDP in developed countries now fuels social and
environmental instability. It also blinds developing
countries to possibilities for more-sustainable models
of development [...]. Nonetheless, GDP remains
entrenched [...]. Much of the problem is that no
alternative measure stands out as a clear successor.
Creating that successor will require a sustained,
transdisciplinary effort to integrate metrics and build
consensus”.
Nature, 2014, p. 284-285

6. Persistent problems
“In the context of the international climate change
negotiations, the issue of equity has [...] implied
that the burden of mitigation lies mostly, if not
exclusively, with high-income developed nations
[...]. One weakness of framing the problem
exclusively along these lines is that it [...]
effectively ignores the different benefits that could
be provided by wider or deeper global action to
reduce emissions”.
Garibaldi, 2014, pp. 82-83

7. Persistent problems
“As long as the UNFCCC inhabits a world
divorced from modern structural realities [...] the
vested interests that feel threatened, and the
countries (and groups within them) who consider
tackling climate change to be someone else’s
responsibility, will continue to drag everything to
the lowest common denominator”.
Grubb, 2014, p. 326

8. “The interesting idea is that now
accelerated by the economic crisis,
political windows of opportunity open up
to take more substantial steps towards
sustainability transitions”.
Loorbach and Lijnis Huffenreuter, 2013, p. 43

9. The instrument:
Global Emissions Reduction
(GER)

10. GER objectives
 Boosting anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs)
emissions reductions
 Boosting economy worldwide
 Transforming energy systems
 Supporting sustainability (in all its meanings)
 Leading to more equitable wealth distribution
 Stimulating a renewal in financial systems
 Introducing an international representative currency
 Contributing to the establishment of a new ‘green
deal’
 Supporting scientific research on climate change

11. GER scope
 An anthropogenic GHGs emissions reduction target
must be agreed between the parties
 A distribution of global emissions duties must be
approved
 A mandatory non-compliance compensation must be
defined and accepted by all the parties
 An international institution (the International Climate
Fund – ICF), to issue reductions certifications (the
GERs) and recognise parties' duties compliance,
must be instituted
 Any actor from parties shall be entitled to produce,
sell, buy and trade GERs inside and within the same
parties

12. GER functioning
 Setting up a new global representative currency
(commodity)
– GHGs can be defined as a measurable commodity,
becoming finite once defined a global emissions cap
– GHGs provisions are given by the emissions levels of
the different parties referring to the year defining the
cap
– GHGs agreed reduction corresponds to an agreed
binding consumption of the commodity, distributed
through the emissions duties between the parties
– The commodity consumption is recognised only after
presentation of GERs, corresponding to effectively
happened reductions

13. GER functioning (cont.)
 Setting up a new global representative currency
(currency)
– GERs become then the only currency representing
the GHGs commodity
– In a context of quantified reductions in specified
time-period, the maximum amount of possibly
circulating GERs is defined since the beginning
– The direct correspondence between GERs and
GHGs reductions maintains their fixed exchange
rate

14. GER functioning (cont.)
 GER technical functioning shall in principle follow the
already tested clean development mechanism
(CDM) system, supported by two main reforms
 The first reform lies upon the identification of
emissions duties for any involved party
 The second reform lies upon the extension to any
involved actor of the rights to produce and trade
GERs anywhere between and within the parties
 Extending both emissions duties and reduction
activities worldwide will imply the overcoming of the
additionality issue

15. GER functioning (cont.)
 GER functioning in a multi-level perspective
– Climate change representing the landscape for a
variety of regimes
– Related regimes include both GHGs emitters and
GHGs affected systems
– GER functions as tool to cope with regimes
persistent problems
– GER functions as tool to change rules inside the
regimes
– GER functions as tool to open windows of
opportunities for new actors to enter the regimes

16. Effects analysis

17. Effects contextualisation
 GER's effects shall be framed as multi-level
and multi-domain
– A single effect may simultaneously affect different
domains
– A single effect may simultaneously act at different
levels
– Combinations of effects may lead to specific
effects both in levels and domains
 Three main typologies of effects
– Direct
– Potential
– Mixed

18.  A complete effects' identification and
categorisation is constrained by GER's flexibility
 A domain-based approach is conceived as
starting point
 Most of the proposed effects are still incomplete
in their development
 Most of the proposed effects contain forms of
policy proposals
Effects contextualisation (cont.)

19.  GHGs emissions and CC scientific debate
contribution (direct)
 Economy (direct/mixed)
 Energy (direct/mixed)
 Sustainability (direct/mixed/potential)
 Finance (direct/mixed)
 Monetary system (direct/mixed/potential)
Effects by domain

20. Effects in a multi-level perspective
 GER activation and effects will lead to a
radical transformation of CC-related regimes
 Persistent problems affecting regimes (i.e.:
rebound effect, environmental integrity,
economic sustainability, monetary lock-in) will
be overcome
 Regimes' radical transitions aim to lead to a
change at landscape level (CC)

21. Open elements and conclusions

22. Open elements
 Activation
– GER activation requires a strong and
generalised policy acceptance of its principles
and structure
– Efforts must be concentrated in filling the
existing gaps between the current status of the
proposal and required agreements for a real
GER activation
– Time constrains represent the biggest
challenge to the proposal

23. Open elements (cont.)
 Effects
– Involved actors reactions to GER effects cannot
be clearly previewed or estimated
– GER effects can be manipulated at any level
through the adoption of tailored policies and
strategies

24. Open elements (cont.)
 Duration
– GER has been designed as a temporary
instrument that will be exhausted by the
achievement of a virtually zero global
anthropogenic GHGs emission rate
– A totally new instrument will be required for
the following stage and relevance shall be
given also to early studies on it

25. Conclusions
 Climate change negotiations represent the
ultimate international framework to discuss
and agree on a radical systemic
transformation
 The transformation shall encompass a variety
of domains, overcoming the mere climate
change
 The here-proposed instrument represents an
ambitious but viable option for the
transformation

26. Conclusions (cont.)
 The instrument requires substantial technical
and political efforts to be set up
 Its effects are likely to have a steady
influence on all involved parties
 The instrument has a deadline represented
by the virtually zero anthropogenic GHGs
emissions level
 A new proposal to define the 'post-GER' shall
be studied and developed along the years

27. References
Garibaldi, J., A., 2014. The economics of boldness: equity, action, and
hope. Climate Policy, Vol. 14, No. 1, 82–101.
Grubb, M., 2014. Climate policy: a new era. Climate Policy, Vol. 14,
No. 3, 325–326.
Loorbach, D., A., Lijnis Huffenreuter, R., 2013. Exploring the economic
crisis from a transition management perspective. Environmental
Innovation and Societal Transitions 6 (2013) 35-46.
Nature, 2014. Time to leave GDP behind. 16 January 2014, vol. 505,
Nature, 283–285.
Sorrell, S., 2010. Energy, Economic Growth and Environmental
Sustainability: Five Propositions. Sustainability 2010, 2, 1784-1809.

28. Thank you