A Bottom-up Approach toMitigation for Developing Countries? Pedcris M. Orencio M1 76093201
Key Points Bottom-up approaches such as NAMAs for developing countries may have substantial advantages over top down approaches Top down approaches based on emission caps risk creating counterproductive incentives to set overly high emission targets or to avoid early action in order to receive greater financing and higher caps later Top down approaches may be in practice reduce rather than increase the predictability of emission level and of emission reductions against BAU baselines or meaningful targets Strengthening domestic institutions in developing countries is needed for successful low carbon development and financing program but are underemphasized in top down approaches
Climate Change Mitigation Climate change mitigation is action to decrease the intensity of radiative forcing in order to reduce the potential effects of global warming. Mitigation is distinguished from adaptation to global warming, which involves acting to tolerate the effects of global warming. Most often, climate change mitigation scenarios involve reductions in the concentrations of greenhouse gases, either by reducing the sources or by increasing the sinks.
Mitigation according to IPCC According to the WG3 of the IPCC AR4: “stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations is possible at a reasonable cost, with stabilization between 445ppm and 535ppm costing less than 3% of global GDP” Mitigation options for the main sectors in the near-term, addressing also cross-sectorial matters such as synergies, co-benefits, and trade-offs were provided. Information on long-term mitigation strategies for various stabilization levels, paying special attention to implications of different short-term strategies for achieving long-term goals were also provided.
Important Questions for ClimatePolicy Making How much is the GHG emission and how much energy can be saved? In what sectors and at what costs? These questions can be determined either by top- down or bottom up approaches The top-down approach tends to focus more on available technologies and their characteristics The bottom-up approach focus on the processes within the economy on the basis of observed historic behavior
Climate Policy Uncertainty Principle Incentivizing low carbon development (Bottom-up) Enhancing the institutional change from within Reforming the industries will result to failure The more imperfect the institutions, the more markets will be missing or incomplete and the less useful price signals will be used as a driver of change The incentive problems brought by the absence of caps on developing countries (Top down) Reductions from BAU trajectories The issue of transaction costs in establishing baselines High emission targets or delayed implementation
Take for Example the CleanDevelopment Mechanism (CDM) It is one of the flexibility mechanisms in the Kyoto Protocol Based on the idea of “emission reduction production” to promote clean development in developing countries The developing country gains credits from producing the emission cuts, which are less expensive than those of Annex I countries
Top Down Approach in CDM Setting the developing countries’ binding targets to GHG emissions Establishing the baseline emissions for CDM based on statistical analysis of existing model runs Intervention of developed countries contrary to the host state’s development framework Issue of “low-hanging fruit” or sold-out hypothesis Carbon leakage Lower transaction costs using the standard BAU approach
Bottom-up Approach for CDM Ensuring concerns on the abatement costs and potentials to society in designing the host development country’s climate policy Implementation of unilateral versus bilateral CDM projects in the economics of global carbon market to address the issue of developed countries’ over- intervention Issue of “additionality” Project based approach incur more transaction cost
Definitely Bottom up Approach Potential alignment of interests between development actions and climate mitigation Ensures measure to address climate challenge through rethinking the approach Setting per capita emission caps based on current emission levels Satisfy political demands by making meaningful commitments (North and South) to limit emissions Greenhouse development rights framework Development threshold to sustain human development Tied to nature of economic, social and political institutions