To crash or not to crash. Take the guesswork out of your project deadlines. Review of Cost Time Trade-Offs of Crashing a Project Probability of Completing a Target Date using PERT Analysis Techniques

1. DIAGNOSTICS FOR
TIME MANAGEMENT
TO C R A S H O R N OT TO C R A S H ?
TA K E T H E G U E S S W O R K O U T O F Y O U R D E A D L I N E .

2. PROJECT TIME MANAGEMENT
KNOWLEDGE AREA
• AGENDA:
– COST TIME TRADE OFFS OF CRASHING
– PROBABILITY OF COMPLETING A PROJECT BASED ON PERT ANALYSYS
• PMBOK GUIDE 6TH EDITION
• DEVELOP SCHEDULE: TOOLS AND TECHNIQUES –
– SCHEDULE COMPRESSION – CRASHING (6.5.2.6)
– DATA ANALYSIS – SIMULATION MODELS (6.5.2.4)
• PLANNING PROCESS GROUP

3. WHO WE ARE
• ROBERT DAVIES – LEAD ELECTRONICS ENGINEER, PRIDE MOBILITY PRODUCTS
• MS ENGINEERING OPERATIONS AND STRATEGY 2018’
• OVER A DECADE OF EXPERIENCE IN ELECTRICAL/ELECTRONIC SYSTEMS DESIGN
• 4 US PATENTS (PENDING) & 1 EU PATENT (PENDING)
• APRIL DAVIES – PROJECT COORDINATOR, TMG HEALTH / COGNIZANT
• MS PROJECT MANAGEMENT (HEALTHCARE ADMINISTRATION) 2018
• MA COMMUNICATION ARTS – MARYWOOD UNIVERSITY
• DECADE OF EXPERIECNE IN EXECUTIVE LEVEL SUPPORT AND SPECIAL PROJECTS
• CAPM JUNE 2017

4. PROJECT
CRASHING

5. PROJECT CRASHING
• The PMBOK defines project crashing as a technique used to
shorten the schedule duration for the least cost by adding
resources.
• Crashing is one method of schedule compression used to
accelerate the schedule duration to meet constraints, key
dates and other schedule objectives without reducing the
project scope.

6. COST TIME TRADE OFFS OF
CRASHING
• When managing a project it’s not uncommon for a project
manager to be faced with these scenarios.
–A project is falling behind schedule.
And/or
–The scheduled completion date of a project is moved
forward.
–In either scenario, we need to determine how to speed up
the activities that occur within the project’s pipeline.

7. DETERMINING ACTIVITIES TO CRASH
• The concern lies in the question of:
– Which activities should be shortened?
– How many activities should be shortened?
• The project manager needs to review the critical activities and
determine which would have the least impact to the cost.
• Costs need to be compared, but how?
• Assumptions:
– Manager is working to ensure that the cost of the crash is permissible.
– The shortened activity time will allow us to meet the due date.
– Total cost of crashing is as small as possible.

8. PROJECT COSTS
• Project direct costs to the project that consist of labor, materials,
equipment and contractor expenses.
• Direct cost are assigned to each of the project activities.
• Under a normal assumption, the direct costs represent normal delivery
of project activities.
• Changes to the normal delivery of of these activities would constitute an
increase to the project’s direct costs.
• The sum of all project costs is equivalent to the sum of all activities and
the total direct cost of the project.
• Not all costs are the same for every activity, therefore it could be
difficult to determine which activity to shorten.

9. COST TIME TRADE OFF
Crash Point
Cost
Activity 1
Activity 2
Crash Point
Normal

10. HOW TO CRASH A PROJECT
1) Compute the crash cost per time period.
2) Find the critical path of the project’s network.
3) Find the activities on the critical path that can be
crashed and have the smallest crash cost.
4) Update activity times to determine if the desired due
dates can be reached.

11. THE DILEMMA

12. T H E D E L I M M A
Julie Anne’s boss tells her
that she must complete her
project at an earlier than
anticipated due date. He is
willing to pay any price to
have the project come in
sooner then planned. Julie
Anne needs to determine
which activities to crash, by
how much, and how to meet
his 13 week deadline which
was shortened from 15
weeks. She would like to
speed up her project by 2
weeks at the least minimal

13. STEP 1
Compute the crash cost per time period.
Crash Cost per Period =
Crash Cost – Normal Cost
Normal Time – Crash Time

14. CALCULATING CRASH COST
Crash Cost =
Crash Cost – Normal Cost
Normal Time – Crash Time
Activity Normal Time Crash Time Normal Cost Crash Cost Cost per
time period
A 2 1 22,000 22,750 750
B 3 1 30,000 34,000 2,000
C 2 1 26,000 27,000 1,000
D 4 3 48,000 49,000 1,000
E 4 2 56,000 58,000 1,000
F 3 2 30,000 30,500 500
G 5 2 80,000 84,500 1,500
H 2 1 16,000 19,000 3,000

15. CRITICAL PATH
POP QUIZ

16. STEP 2
Find the Critical Path
S
0
F
3
G
5
E
4
B
3
D
4
C
2
A
2
H
2
Activity
Duration

17. STEP 2
Find the Critical Path
S
0
F
3
G
5
E
4
B
3
D
4
C
2
A
2
H
2
Activity
Duration

18. STEP 3
• Find the critical path activities with smallest crash cost.
Activity Normal
Time
Crash
Time
Normal
Cost
Crash
Cost
Cost per
time
period
Critical
Path
A 2 1 22,000 22,750 750 Yes
B 3 1 30,000 34,000 2,000 No
C 2 1 26,000 27,000 1,000 Yes
D 4 3 48,000 49,000 1,000 No
E 4 2 56,000 58,000 1,000 Yes
F 3 2 30,000 30,500 500 No
G 5 2 80,000 84,500 1,500 Yes
H 2 1 16,000 19,000 3,000 Yes

19. STEP 4
Update activity times to determine if the desired due dates can be
reached.
S
0
F
3
G
5
E
4
B
3
D
4
C
2
A
2
H
2
Activity
Duration
15 weeks
Act T $
A 1 750
C 1 1,000
E 2 1,000
G 2 1,500
H 1 3,000

20. STEP 4
Update activity times to determine if the desired due dates can be
reached.
S
0
F
3
G
5
E
4
B
3
D
4
C
2
A
2
H
2
Activity
Duration
15 weeks
Act T $
A 1 750
C 1 1,000
E 2 1,000
G 2 1,500
H 1 3,000

21. STEP 4
Update activity times to determine if the desired due dates can be
reached.
S
0
F
3
G
5
E
4
B
3
D
4
C
2
A
1
H
2
Activity
Duration
14 weeks
Total: $750
Act T $
A 1 750
C 1 1,000
E 2 1,000
G 2 1,500
H 1 3,000

22. STEP 4
Update activity times to determine if the desired due dates can be
reached.
S
0
F
3
G
5
E
4
B
3
D
4
C
2
A
1
H
2
Activity
Duration
13 weeks
Act T $
A 1 750
C 1 1,000
E 2 1,000
G 2 1,500
H 1 3,000
Total: $2,750

23. STEP 4
Update activity times to determine if the desired due dates can be
reached.
S
0
F
3
G
5
E
4
B
3
D
4
C
2
A
2
H
2
Activity
Duration
15 weeks
Act T $
A 1 750
C 1 1,000
E 2 1,000
G 2 1,500
H 1 3,000
Total: $1,500

24. STEP 4
Update activity times to determine if the desired due dates can be
reached.
S
0
F
3
G
2
E
4
B
3
D
4
C
2
A
2
H
2
Activity
Duration
12 weeks
Act T $
A 1 750
C 1 1,000
E 2 1,000
G 2 1,500
H 1 3,000

25. SUCCESSFUL CRASH REMINDERS
• Ensure that the cost to crash is as small as possible.
• Update your project with new activity times and budget with
new cost considerations. Crashing only works for critical path
activities.
• Crashing can increase risk. Reevaluate risk as needed.
• Ensure your resources are available to complete the crash.
• Receive the proper prior authorization to make the change (CR)
• Remember to be considerate of money. Consider the approach
of take only what is needed.
• Remember Responsible Crashing: Always Weigh Impact to
Quality
– 4 Hour House – What is the cost of quality.
– https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oDB1O5cadQw

26. PERT ANALYSIS

27. WHAT IS PERT?
• The program (or project) evaluation and review
technique, commonly abbreviated PERT, is a
statistical tool, used in project management…

28. PERT
HISTORY?
• Initially PERT stood for
Program Evaluation
Research Task
• Started by the US NAVY
1950’s – as part of a
(CPM) analysis Critical
Path Method.
• Design to simplify and
plan complex projects i.e.
building of a nuclear
submarines.

29. WHAT DOES PERT DO?
• PERT - in its simplest form is a tool for estimating
the probability of completing a task (program or
project) in a given time constraint.
• “What is the confidence level of completing phase
2 by Oct 15th ?” said the VP

30. EXAMPLE OF PERT

31. PERT STEP 1.
• Identify Critical Path Tasks
• The longest possible continuous pathway taken from the
initial event to the terminal event. It determines the total
calendar time required for the project; and, therefore, any
time delays along the critical path will delay the reaching
of the terminal event by at least the same amount.

32. PERT STEP 2.
• Optimistic : The
minimum possible
time required to
accomplish a task,
assuming
everything
proceeds better
than is normally
expected.

33. PERT STEP 3.
• Likely : The best
estimate of the time
required to
accomplish a task,
assuming everything
proceeds as normal.

34. PERT STEP 4.
• Pessimistic : The
maximum possible
time required to
accomplish a task,
assuming
everything goes
wrong (but
excluding major
catastrophes).

35. PERT STEP 5.
• Calculate Expected Duration using given inputs

36. PERT STEP 6.
• Calculate Standard Deviation / Variance

37. PERT STEP 6.2.0
• Calculate Standard Deviation / Variance

38. PERT STEP 7.
• Given a due date we can calculate the
probability of meeting a particular due date

39. PERT STEP 8.
• Now we look up
Z in the Normal
Distribution
Table

40. PERT STEP 9.
• That’s it! Report the probability of completion in
percentage i.e. 0.99 equates to 99% probability.

41. QUESTIONS AND
CONCLUSION