Successfully reported this slideshow.
We use your LinkedIn profile and activity data to personalize ads and to show you more relevant ads. You can change your ad preferences anytime.

Dan North Embracinguncertaintyv3

1,554 views

Published on

Agile - Embracing Uncertainty

  • Three ages align very well with Dave Snowden's Cynfin model - I like the three ages because it tells you how you typically traverse the cynefin model:
    Chaos ->[explore]-> Complex -> [stabilize] -> Complicated -> [commoditize] -> Simple
       Reply 
    Are you sure you want to  Yes  No
    Your message goes here

Dan North Embracinguncertaintyv3

  1. 1. Embracing Uncertainty Dan North, DRW @tastapod
  2. 2. Patterns of Effective Delivery @tastapod
  3. 3. Faster Software Delivery @tastapod
  4. 4. With apologies to George Lucas…Fear leads to RiskRisk leads to ProcessProcess leads to Hate…and suffering and product backlogs @tastapod
  5. 5. With apologies to George Lucas…Fear leads to RiskRisk leads to ProcessProcess leads to Hate…and suffering and product backlogs @tastapod
  6. 6. Understanding riskImpact ∞ Likelihood [0.0, 1.0] @tastapod
  7. 7. Snowbird 2001Individuals and interactions over processes and toolsWorking software over comprehensive documentation Customer collaboration over contract negotiation Responding to change over following a plan @tastapod
  8. 8. Everywhere 2012Individuals and interactions over processes and toolsWorking software over comprehensive documentation Customer collaboration over contract negotiation Responding to change over following a plan @tastapod
  9. 9. Everywhere 2012Processes and tools over individuals and interactionsWorking software over comprehensive documentation Customer collaboration over contract negotiation Responding to change over following a plan @tastapod
  10. 10. Everywhere 2012Processes and tools over individuals and interactionsComprehensive documentation over working software Customer collaboration over contract negotiation Responding to change over following a plan @tastapod
  11. 11. Everywhere 2012Processes and tools over individuals and interactionsComprehensive documentation over working software Contract negotiation over customer collaboration Responding to change over following a plan @tastapod
  12. 12. Everywhere 2012Processes and tools over individuals and interactionsComprehensive documentation over working software Contract negotiation over customer collaboration Following a plan over responding to change @tastapod
  13. 13. We crave certainty! Faith becomes religionComplex questions become simplistic answers Interpretation becomes dogma We would rather be wrong than uncertain @tastapod
  14. 14. So we resist uncertaintyWe resist uncertainty of scopeWe resist uncertainty of technologyWe resist uncertainty of effortWe resist uncertainty of structure We resist uncertainty of the future @tastapod
  15. 15. Agile methods optimize for certainty Certainty gives us predictability Predictability gives us repeatability Repeatability gives us a feeling of safety @tastapod
  16. 16. Three Ages: a model of growth1. Explore - optimize for discovery2. Stabilize - optimize for repeatability3. Commoditize - optimize for efficiency Agile methods optimize for the Second Age @tastapod
  17. 17. Deliberate discoveryIgnorance is your biggest constraintYou are second order ignorant (but not third!)You can actively reduce your ignoranceSome unexpected bad things will happen @tastapod
  18. 18. Deliberate discoveryIgnorance is your biggest constraintYou are second order ignorant (but not third!)You can actively reduce your ignoranceSome unexpected bad things will happen @tastapod
  19. 19. Deliberate discoveryIgnorance is your biggest constraintYou are second order ignorant (but not third!)You can actively reduce your ignoranceSome unexpected bad things will happen @tastapod
  20. 20. Deliberate discoveryIgnorance is your biggest constraintYou are second order ignorant (but not third!)You can actively reduce your ignoranceSome unexpected bad things will happen @tastapod
  21. 21. Real Options Options have value Options expire Commit deliberately“Never commit early unless you know why” @tastapod
  22. 22. Embracing uncertaintyEmbrace uncertainty of scopeEmbrace uncertainty of technologyEmbrace uncertainty of effortEmbrace uncertainty of structure @tastapod
  23. 23. Why you won’t believe me Attribution bias Confirmation bias Bias biasBut most of all, that craving for certainty! @tastapod
  24. 24. tl; drExpect the unexpected @tastapod
  25. 25. tl; drExpect the unexpectableAnticipate ignoranceEmbrace uncertainty – it’s inevitable! @tastapod
  26. 26. Thanks for listening @tastapod http://dannorth.net dan@dannorth.net @tastapod

×