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Leveraging AI the Right Way (for Product Managers)

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David Murgatroyd
David Murgatroyd

Artificial Intelligence is transforming almost every kind of product as innovative techniques receive deserved attention. But careful leadership from Product Managers is crucial in turning that innovation into something that’s not only valuable but that also respects your own values. This talk provides frameworks to identify where AI can impact our products in the ways we want and to maximize that impact throughout the product life cycle.

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Leveraging Artificial Intelligence the Right Way David Murgatroyd ( @dmurga) #Unbox2018 October 12, 2018 (please don’t sue me for copyright violation, Flight of the Conchords!)
@dmurga
@dmurga
@dmurga
@dmurga The Role of Product & Tech in Discover Weekly
@dmurga The Role of Product & Tech in Discover Weekly
@dmurga The Role of Product & Tech in Discover Weekly
@dmurga The Role of Product & Tech in Discover Weekly
@dmurga
@dmurga The Role of Product & Tech in Discover Weekly
@dmurga
@dmurga
@dmurga DevelopmentResearch
@dmurga Sureit’svaluable? DevelopmentResearch
@dmurga Sureit’svaluable? Experi- mental DevelopmentResearch Hypoth- esized Known Unknown
@dmurga Sureit’svaluable? Experi- mental DevelopmentResearch Hypoth- esized Known Unknown Sure it’s possible?
@dmurga Sureit’svaluable? Experi- mental DevelopmentResearch Hypoth- esized Known Unknown Known to Our Org.Known to World Sure it’s possible? Unknown to World
@dmurga Sureit’svaluable? Experi- mental DevelopmentResearch Hypoth- esized Known Unknown Known to Our Org.Known to World Sure it’s possible? Unknown to World
@dmurga Sureit’svaluable? Experi- mental DevelopmentResearch Hypoth- esized Known Unknown Known to Our Org.Known to World Sure it’s possible? Unknown to World Fundamental
@dmurga Sureit’svaluable? Experi- mental DevelopmentResearch Hypoth- esized Known Unknown Known to Our Org.Known to World Sure it’s possible? Unknown to World Fundamental Applied
@dmurga Sureit’svaluable? Experi- mental DevelopmentResearch Hypoth- esized Known Unknown Known to Our Org.Known to World Sure it’s possible? Unknown to World Fundamental Applied Discovery
@dmurga Sureit’svaluable? Experi- mental DevelopmentResearch Hypoth- esized Known Unknown Known to Our Org.Known to World Sure it’s possible? Unknown to World Fundamental Applied Delivery Discovery
@dmurga Sureit’svaluable? Experi- mental DevelopmentResearch Hypoth- esized Known Unknown Known to Our Org.Known to World Sure it’s possible? Unknown to World Fundamental Applied Delivery Discovery Product Management
@dmurga Sureit’svaluable? Experi- mental DevelopmentResearch Hypoth- esized Known Unknown Known to Our Org.Known to World Sure it’s possible? Unknown to World Fundamental Applied Delivery Discovery Product Management New Technology
@dmurga Sureit’svaluable? Experi- mental DevelopmentResearch Hypoth- esized Known Unknown Known to Our Org.Known to World Sure it’s possible? Unknown to World Fundamental Applied Delivery Discovery Product Management New Technology
@dmurga Sureit’svaluable? Experi- mental DevelopmentResearch Hypoth- esized Known Unknown Known to Our Org.Known to World Sure it’s possible? Unknown to World Fundamental Applied Delivery Discovery Product Management
@dmurga Sureit’svaluable? Experi- mental DevelopmentResearch Hypoth- esized Known Unknown Known to Our Org.Known to World Sure it’s possible? Unknown to World Fundamental Applied Delivery Discovery Product Management Artificial Intelligence
@dmurga Artificial Intelligence: Machines doing things only humans did before.
@dmurga
@dmurga
@dmurga Which result is better?
@dmurga ~3K monthly listeners ~3M monthly listeners Which result is better?
@dmurga ~3K monthly listeners Popularity rank for this user: 92nd ~3M monthly listeners Popularity rank for this user: 1,117th Which result is better?
@dmurga (Disclosure: I’m the user.) ~3K monthly listeners Popularity rank for this user: 92nd ~3M monthly listeners Popularity rank for this user: 1,117th Which result is better?
@dmurga How could a system make this decision?
@dmurga Machine Learning: How could a system make this decision?
@dmurga Machine Learning: A technique for pursuing Artificial Intelligence. How could a system make this decision?
@dmurga Situations Query is exact match for artist name Query is prefix of artist name with 1 letter wrong Artist is in user’s top-100 by popularity Artist has >1M monthly listeners How could a system make this decision?
@dmurga Situations % of time this was true of clicked artist Query is exact match for artist name 30% Query is prefix of artist name with 1 letter wrong 10% Artist is in user’s top-100 by popularity 20% Artist has >1M monthly listeners 35% How could a system make this decision?
@dmurga Query is exact match for artist name 30% Artist is in user’s top-100 by popularity 20% Query is prefix of artist name with 1 letter wrong 10% Artist has >1M monthly listeners 35% Which result is better?
@dmurga Query is exact match for artist name 30% Artist is in user’s top-100 by popularity 20% Query is prefix of artist name with 1 letter wrong 10% Artist has >1M monthly listeners 35% 30% * 20% 10% * 35% Which result is better?
@dmurga Query is exact match for artist name 30% Artist is in user’s top-100 by popularity 20% Query is prefix of artist name with 1 letter wrong 10% Artist has >1M monthly listeners 35% 30% * 20% 10% * 35% Which result is better?
@dmurga Query is exact match for artist name 30% Artist is in user’s top-100 by popularity 20% Query is prefix of artist name with 1 letter wrong 10% Artist has >1M monthly listeners 35% Machine Learning is just fancy counting. Which result is better?
@dmurga Machine Learning isn’t magic it’s math!
@dmurga How fancy is that math?
@dmurga Too much Little hope of generalizing to new points!
@dmurga Better This will probably generalize better.
@dmurga Sureit’svaluable? Experi- mental DevelopmentResearch Hypoth- esized Known Unknown Known to Our Org.Known to World Sure it’s possible? Unknown to World
@dmurga Sureit’svaluable? Experi- mental DevelopmentResearch Hypoth- esized Known Unknown Known to Our Org.Known to World Sure it’s possible? Unknown to World Think It & Build ItDream It Tweak It
@dmurga Sureit’svaluable? Experi- mental DevelopmentResearch Hypoth- esized Known Unknown Known to Our Org.Known to World Sure it’s possible? Unknown to World Think It & Build ItDream It Tweak It 11 Product Management Skills that ML Changes
@dmurga Sureit’svaluable? Experi- mental DevelopmentResearch Hypoth- esized Known Unknown Known to Our Org.Known to World Sure it’s possible? Unknown to World Think It & Build ItDream It Tweak It 11 Product Management Skills that ML Changes
@dmurga 1. What are your high-level business metrics? 4 Steps & 3 Skills To Tweak Your Product with ML
@dmurga What are your high-level business metrics? Increase consumption (minutes/week)
@dmurga 1. What are your high-level business metrics? 2. What fuzzy decisions impact those metrics? 4 Steps & 3 Skills To Tweak Your Product with ML
@dmurga What fuzzy decisions impact those metrics? It’d be great if we could predict what users will click. Decision: ordering of search results
@dmurga Sureit’svaluable? Experi- mental DevelopmentResearch Hypoth- esized Known Unknown Known to Our Org.Known to World Sure it’s possible? Unknown to World Think It & Build ItDream It Tweak It 11 Product Management Skills that ML Changes
@dmurga Skill #1 - Hypothesis Generation Fuzzy decision hypotheses machine learning enables: ● “We could move our metrics if we could predict …” ○ Which way is this stock price likely to move? ○ Is it going to rain in the next hour? ● “We could move our metrics if we could perceive …” ○ Who is in this picture? ○ What did the user just say? ○ What places are mentioned in this document? ● “We could move our metrics if we could personalize …” ○ Which new legislation is most likely to affect this company? ○ What new songs are most likely to be liked by this user?
@dmurga 1. What are your high-level business metrics? 2. What fuzzy decisions impact those metrics? 4 Steps & 3 Skills To Tweak Your Product with ML
@dmurga 1. What are your high-level business metrics? 2. What fuzzy decisions impact those metrics? 3. What are the quality metrics for those fuzzy decisions? 4 Steps & 3 Skills To Tweak Your Product with ML
@dmurga What are the quality metrics for those fuzzy decisions? How often did the user click something and listen to it?
@dmurga Sureit’svaluable? Experi- mental DevelopmentResearch Hypoth- esized Known Unknown Known to Our Org.Known to World Sure it’s possible? Unknown to World Think It & Build ItDream It Tweak It 11 Product Management Skills that ML Changes
@dmurga Skill #2 - Metrics
@dmurga 1. What are your high-level business metrics? 2. What fuzzy decisions impact those metrics? 3. What are the quality metrics for those fuzzy decisions? 4 Steps & 3 Skills To Tweak Your Product with ML
@dmurga 1. What are your high-level business metrics? 2. What fuzzy decisions impact those metrics? 3. What are the quality metrics for those fuzzy decisions? 4. Is there data to measure those quality metrics? 4 Steps & 3 Skills To Tweak Your Product with ML
@dmurga Sureit’svaluable? Experi- mental DevelopmentResearch Hypoth- esized Known Unknown Known to Our Org.Known to World Sure it’s possible? Unknown to World Think It & Build ItDream It Tweak It 11 Product Management Skills that ML Changes
@dmurga Is there data to measure those quality metrics? Billions of searches with clicks!
@dmurga Skill #3 - Data User query Time Result clicked? dmurga pfr 09/23/20183:15PM PFR true dmurga pfr 09/23/20183:15PM Paramore false dmurga pfr 09/23/20183:15PM Prince false Where to get it? ● Logs
@dmurga Skill #3 - Data User query Time Result clicked? dmurga pfr 09/23/20183:15PM PFR true dmurga pfr 09/23/20183:15PM Paramore 0 dmurga pfr 09/23/20183:15PM Prince 0 Persona query Result Relevance? (1-5) Folk Dad pfr PFR Folk Dad pfr Paramore Folk Dad pfr Prince Where to get it? ● Logs ● Annotation
@dmurga Skill #3 - Data User query Time Result clicked? dmurga pfr 09/23/20183:15PM PFR true dmurga pfr 09/23/20183:15PM Paramore 0 dmurga pfr 09/23/20183:15PM Prince 0 Persona query Result Relevance? (1-5) Folk Dad pfr PFR 3 Folk Dad pfr Paramore 2 Folk Dad pfr Prince 2 Where to get it? ● Logs ● Annotation
@dmurga Skill #3 - Data User query Time Result clicked? dmurga pfr 09/23/20183:15PM PFR 1 dmurga pfr 09/23/20183:15PM Paramore 0 dmurga pfr 09/23/20183:15PM Prince 0 Persona query Result Relevance? (1-5) Folk Dad pfr PFR 3 Folk Dad pfr Paramore 2 Folk Dad pfr Prince 2 Where to get it? ● Logs ● Annotation ● 3rd Parties
@dmurga 1. What are your high-level business metrics? 2. What fuzzy decisions impact those metrics? 3. What are the quality metrics for those fuzzy decisions? 4. Is there data to measure those quality metrics? 4 Steps & 3 Skills To Tweak Your Product with ML
@dmurga Sureit’svaluable? Experi- mental DevelopmentResearch Hypoth- esized Known Unknown Known to Our Org.Known to World Sure it’s possible? Unknown to World Think It & Build ItDream It Tweak It 11 Product Management Skills that ML Changes
@dmurga Sureit’svaluable? Experi- mental Development Hypoth- esized Known Unknown Known to Our Org.Known to World Sure it’s possible? Unknown to World Think It & Build ItDream It Tweak It 11 Product Management Skills that ML Changes Research
@dmurga Sureit’svaluable? Experi- mental DevelopmentResearch Hypoth- esized Known Unknown Known to Our Org.Known to World Sure it’s possible? Unknown to World Think It & Build ItDream It Tweak It 11 Product Management Skills that ML Changes
@dmurga Skill #4 - Product Discovery & ML predictperceivepersonalize
@dmurga Skill #4 - Product Discovery & ML Assist predictperceivepersonalize
@dmurga Skill #4 - Product Discovery & ML AggregateAssist predictperceivepersonalize
@dmurga Skill #4 - Product Discovery & ML AggregateAssist Automate predictperceivepersonalize
@dmurga Skill #4 - Product Discovery & ML AggregateAssist AnticipateAutomate predictperceivepersonalize
@dmurga Development Sureit’svaluable? Experi- mental Research Hypoth- esized Known Unknown Known to Our Org.Known to World Sure it’s possible? Unknown to World Think It & Build ItDream It Tweak It 11 Product Management Skills that ML Changes
@dmurga Skill #5 - Design & ML
@dmurga ML’s output is often wrong, unintutive, off-brand, and varying by user. Skill #5 - Design & ML
@dmurga ML’s output is often wrong, unintutive, off-brand, and varying by user. Skill #5 - Design & ML
@dmurga ML can elicit unexpected behavior or unintended incentives in users. Skill #5 - Design & ML
@dmurga ML can elicit unexpected behavior or unintended incentives in users. Skill #5 - Design & ML
@dmurga ML’s output is often wrong, unintutive, off-brand, and varying by user. ML can elicit unexpected behavior or unintended incentives in users. Skill #5 - Design & ML
@dmurga Sureit’svaluable? Experi- mental DevelopmentResearch Hypoth- esized Known Unknown Known to Our Org.Known to World Sure it’s possible? Unknown to World Think It & Build ItDream It Tweak It 11 Product Management Skills that ML Changes
@dmurga Skill #6 - Unfairness & ML Unfair Characteristics Unfair Focus (See pubs by my colleagues Henriette Cramer, Jean Garcia-Gathright, and Sravana Reddy for more!)
@dmurga Skill #6 - Unfairness & ML (See pubs by my colleagues Henriette Cramer, Jean Garcia-Gathright, and Sravana Reddy for more!)
@dmurga Metric All Dark F Dark M Light F Light M Error % 6.3 20.8 6.0 1.7 0.0 Skill #6 - Unfairness & ML (See pubs by my colleagues Henriette Cramer, Jean Garcia-Gathright, and Sravana Reddy for more!) Unfair Focus
@dmurga Metric All Dark F Dark M Light F Light M Error % 6.3 20.8 6.0 1.7 0.0 Skill #6 - Unfairness & ML (See pubs by my colleagues Henriette Cramer, Jean Garcia-Gathright, and Sravana Reddy for more!) Unfair Characteristics Unfair Focus
@dmurga Sureit’svaluable? Experi- mental DevelopmentResearch Hypoth- esized Known Unknown Known to Our Org.Known to World Sure it’s possible? Unknown to World Think It & Build ItDream It Tweak It 11 Product Management Skills that ML Changes
@dmurga Skill #7 - Prioritization & ML Bug Error
@dmurga Skill #7 - Prioritization & ML Bug Error
@dmurga Sureit’svaluable? Experi- mental DevelopmentResearch Hypoth- esized Known Unknown Known to Our Org.Known to World Sure it’s possible? Unknown to World Think It & Build ItDream It Tweak It 11 Product Management Skills that ML Changes
@dmurga Sureit’svaluable? Experi- mental DevelopmentResearch Hypoth- esized Known Unknown Known to Our Org.Known to World Sure it’s possible? Unknown to World Think It & Build ItDream It Tweak It Skill #8 - Team Structure
@dmurga Sureit’svaluable? Experi- mental DevelopmentResearch Hypoth- esized Known Unknown Known to Our Org.Known to World Sure it’s possible? Unknown to World Think It & Build ItDream It Tweak It Skill #8 - Team Structure
@dmurga Sureit’svaluable? Experi- mental DevelopmentResearch Hypoth- esized Known Unknown Known to Our Org.Known to World Sure it’s possible? Unknown to World Think It & Build ItDream It Tweak It Skill #8 - Team Structure
@dmurga Sureit’svaluable? Experi- mental DevelopmentResearch Hypoth- esized Known Unknown Known to Our Org.Known to World Sure it’s possible? Unknown to World Think It & Build ItDream It Tweak It Skill #8 - Team Structure
@dmurga Sureit’svaluable? Experi- mental DevelopmentResearch Hypoth- esized Known Unknown Known to Our Org.Known to World Sure it’s possible? Unknown to World Think It & Build ItDream It Tweak It 11 Product Management Skills that ML Changes % %
@dmurga Skill #9 - Performance Tradeoffs & ML % %
@dmurga Skill #9 - Performance Tradeoffs & ML % %
@dmurga Skill #9 - Performance Tradeoffs & ML % %
@dmurga Sureit’svaluable? Experi- mental DevelopmentResearch Hypoth- esized Known Unknown Known to Our Org.Known to World Sure it’s possible? Unknown to World Think It & Build ItDream It Tweak It 11 Product Management Skills that ML Changes % %
@dmurga Sureit’svaluable? Experi- mental DevelopmentResearch Hypoth- esized Known Unknown Known to Our Org.Known to World Sure it’s possible? Unknown to World Think It & Build ItDream It Tweak It 11 Product Management Skills that ML Changes % %
@dmurga Skill #10 - Science & ML Don’t believe either end of the hype spectrum. Industry giants with large resources and product portfolios do a lot of basic research. WE’RE GONERS
@dmurga Sureit’svaluable? Experi- mental DevelopmentResearch Hypoth- esized Known Unknown Known to Our Org.Known to World Sure it’s possible? Unknown to World Think It & Build ItDream It Tweak It 11 Product Management Skills that ML Changes % %
@dmurga Identify user needs that fit these, especially if your competitors haven’t. Skill #11 - Strategy & ML AggregateAssist AnticipateAutomate
@dmurga Sureit’svaluable? Experi- mental DevelopmentResearch Hypoth- esized Known Unknown Known to Our Org.Known to World Sure it’s possible? Unknown to World Think It & Build ItDream It Tweak It 11 Product Management Skills that ML Changes % %
@dmurga 1. Hypothesis Generation 2. Metrics 3. Data 4. Product Discovery 5. Design 6. Fairness 7. Prioritization 8. Team Structure 9. Performance Tradeoffs 10. Research 11. Strategy 11 Product Management Skills that ML Changes % %
@dmurga 1. Hypothesis Generation This Talk from Andrew Ng 2. Metrics Tutorial from my colleague 3. Data Wikipedia Article on Data Splits 4. Product Discovery Article on Kinds of ML Tasks 5. Design Book: Designing Agentive Tech 6. Fairness Paper from my colleagues 7. Prioritization A talk of mine that goes deeper 8. Team Structure A different talk of mine that goes deeper 9. Performance Tradeoffs Article: Striking a balance 10. Research TWIML Podcast 11. Strategy Book: The Inevitable 11 Product Management Skills that ML Changes - Resources % %
Thanks! Questions? David Murgatroyd (@dmurga) Suggestions: Say more about how ML affects the product life cycle? What roles do teams building ML products need? How do you set OKRs for ML efforts? What is this Deep Learning thing I keep hearing about? Didn’t y’all just win MassTLC’s ML in Action Award? Hiring in Boston, NYC, London, and Stockholm!

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