apidays Paris 2022 - APIs the next 10 years: Software, Society, Sovereignty, Sustainability December 14, 15 & 16, 2022 Are the providers’ sustainability strategies... sustainable ? Arnaud Gueguen, Sustainability Consultant at DarwinX and Member of Lean ICT and Climate Education Working Group at Shift Project ------ Check out our conferences at https://www.apidays.global/ Do you want to sponsor or talk at one of our conferences? https://apidays.typeform.com/to/ILJeAaV8 Learn more on APIscene, the global media made by the community for the community: https://www.apiscene.io Explore the API ecosystem with the API Landscape: https://apilandscape.apiscene.io/ Deep dive into the API industry with our reports: https://www.apidays.global/industry-reports/ Subscribe to our global newsletter: https://apidays.typeform.com/to/i1MPEW

1. 1
Arnaud Gueguen
The Shift Project
Are the providers’ sustainability strategies... sustainable ?
Exploring the question through the lens of Systems Theory

2. 2
ICT Climate Impact
Exponential GHG emissions
àWhat is the problem we’re looking at ?
+6%/year = double every 12 y
à exponential issue = system growth issue
?
ICT GHG
MTons CO2e/y
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
2
0
1
4
2
0
1
6
2
0
1
8
2
0
2
0
2
0
2
2
2
0
2
4
2
0
2
6
2
0
2
8
2
0
3
0
“Systems thinking [is] a way of thinking about (…) the forces and
interrelationships that shape the behavior of systems. This discipline helps us
to see how to change systems more effectively, and to act more in tune with
the natural processes of the natural and economic world. ». Peter Senge
àWhat are these System Theory lens?

3. 3
Network
+26%/year
DC Traffic
+35%/year
DC Storage
+40%/year
Smartphone
+9%/year
3.6 devices/capita
In the world
7,6 billions
IIoT
+60%/year data
on mobile network
DATA DEVICES
Mobile
Network
https://theshiftproject.org/article/impact-environnemental-du-numerique-5g-nouvelle-etude-du-shift/
Usage
Effect
Capacity
Effect
« Reinforcing feedback loops are self-enhancing, leading to
exponential growth or to runaway collapses over time »
ICT Dynamics
Reinforcing Feedback loop
R
D.Meadows

4. 4
ICT Energy Efficiency
Positive effect .. and Rebound effect
Technical innovation both favoured the exponential
growth of the sector and contained its energy demand
Data
Cost Data
Demand
ICT
Business
Growth
Investment/
Innovation
Capacity
Energy
Efficiency
« Notre métier, c’est d’optimiser la consommation
électrique : depuis 2015, on a multiplié notre
activité par six, alors que la consommation n’a été
augmentée que de 148 % », M. Castagné - Equinix

5. 5
ICT Energy Efficiency
What now ?
https://www.datacenterfrontier.com/sponsored/article/21438638/stream-data-centers-neither-moores-law-nor-virtualization-can-save-us-now
Moore’s Law no longer holding , server
virtualization largely complete, PUE improvement
has stalled.
« Data centers supported exponentially more
workloads with relatively tiny increases in power
consumption. But the drivers of those gains will
no longer save us. Now data center operators
will need more watts, more infrastructure,
and more people to support more workloads »
S.Lawrence and M.Licitra from Stream Data
Centers
https://journal.uptimeinstitute.com/is-pue-actually-going-up/
The sunset of technical optimization is
bound to accelerate short term energy
demand

6. 6
ICT Renewable Energy
Energy ‘matching’ : what for ?
The goal of energy matching through
PPA/Certificate is to display ‘market_based’ carbon
free energy.
This procurement of renewable electricity is having (…) no
impact at all on emissions reductions either for the company
or for the country.
*They do not lead to renewable electricity generating the
actual power that is consumed by the corporation (…)
*They do not actually lead to increased renewable electricity
generation (…) as the majority of renewable electricity being
purchased either already exists or is being supported through
Government mechanisms (...)
UK Climate Change Committee
https://ecoinfo.cnrs.fr/2022/07/05/carbon-neutralities-of-ict-companies/
location
market
Ex : Google 2016-2020 :
Consumption multiplied by 2,5
MB emission divided by 1,5
(=1/4 of LB emissions)
https://www.theccc.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/Corporate-Procurement-of-Renewable-Energy-Implications-and-
Considerations-Terri-Wills.pdf

7. 7
Renewable Energy
Competition for Metals
Accelerating decarbonation is an
intersectoral competition for metals.
Independent KU Leuven study, commissioned by EU
industry, echoes IEA warning of supply challenges for
several metals needed in Europe’s energy
Meeting the European Union’s Green Deal goal of climate
neutrality by 2050 will require 35 times more lithium and
7 to 26 times the amount of increasingly scarce rare earth
metals compared to Europe’s limited use today.
The energy transition will also require far greater annual
supplies of (many metals) essential to Europe’s plans for
producing the electric vehicles and batteries, renewable
wind, solar and hydrogen energy technologies, and the grid
infrastructure needed to achieve climate neutrality.
According to the study, Europe could face problems
around 2030 from global supply shortages for five
metals especially: lithium, cobalt, nickel, rare earths, and
copper.
https://eurometaux.eu/media/hxdhepyp/press-release-study-quantifies-metal-supplies-needed-
to-reach-eu-s-climate-neutrality-goal.pdf
Microsoft signs 900MW PPAs for Ireland, 28% of
nation's target for 2030
Google : clean energy projects that we signed over the
past few years across Belgium, Denmark, Chile and
Finland are now operational – providing important
clean energy resources to the grids where we operate
Eurométaux-Louvain

8. 8
Towards a ‘True’ ICT Sustainability
A paradigm issue
Accepting System Theory physical law
« no physical system can grow forever in a finite
environment (…) A quantity growing exponentially
toward a constraint or limit reaches that limit in a
surprisingly short time »
Agreeing on a common meaning of ‘Digital
Sustainability’
Based on earth boundaries recognition and the
need to ‘make ICT last’ for future generations
Revisiting ICT Business models
« The growth-oriented business models of Big Tech
companies must be controlled and eventually
replaced by business models that are oriented
towards the common good »
D.Meadows
Working on new Governance for a Digital
‘Sufficiency’
Organize consultation with civil society to
determine priority uses and methods of
deployment
D4S. Science in Dialogue
https://digitalization-for-sustainability.com
The Shift Project

9. 9
Questions ?
(and reading for Christmas)
IMPACT
ENVIRONNEMENTAL
DU NUMÉRIQUE :
TENDANCES À 5 ANS
ET GOUVERNANCE
DE LA 5G
Mise à jour des scénarios prospectifs
des impacts du numérique mondial et
propositions pour le déploiement d’une
5G raisonnée
NOTE D’ANALYSE
MARS 2021
Note
d’analyse
–
Impact
environnemental
du
numérique
:
tendances
à
5
ans
et
gouvernance
de
la
5G
Table des
matières
L’impact environnemental
du numérique : du constat
à l’action
Infographie bilan
Les impacts du numérique
mondial – mise à jour des
scénarios prospectifs
La 5G : des questions qui
n’ont toujours pas été
traitées
A - Consolidation du modèle :
l’insoutenabilité du numérique
confirmée
B - Les dynamiques de croissance
du numérique
Conclusion - Pour rendre
le système numérique
européen résilient, il nous
faut un plan
A - Le système numérique ne
deviendra pas soutenable par
automatisme
B - La 5G : simple brique d’une
infrastructure à mettre au
service de la résilience
1 - Périmètre de la modélisation
2 - Description du modèle
3 - Consommation énergétique : une
croissance problématique
4 - L’empreinte carbone mondiale du
numérique
5. Comparaison avec les résultats de 2018,
implications et conclusions
1 - L’explosion du trafic de données
2 - La multiplication des terminaux
5
4
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8
17
8
9
12
14
16
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20
26
27
30
31
39
31
34
38
40
40
41
42
1 - L’évolution de nos réseaux : une histoire
d’usages
2 - Panorama du débat sur la 5G :
politisation mais polarisation
1 - L’augmentation des impacts est
inévitable si les usages ne sont pas
encadrés
2 - Des usages qui décrivent un certain
futur technologique et sociétal
3 - La priorité est de déployer un réseau
robuste qui permet l’accès aux services
essentiels
A - Les questions à instruire
B - Les actions à mener
C - Les acteurs à mobiliser
D - Pour construire un numérique
éuropéen soutenable
27
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02
03
04
05
https://digitalization-for-sustainability.com/digital-reset/