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China green it


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Green IT Technologies and Business Opportunities

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China green it

  1. 1. Technology and business opportunities in Green IT  <br />Bill St. Arnaud<br /><br />Unless otherwise noted all material in this slide deck may be reproduced, modified or distributed without prior permission of the author<br />
  2. 2. Global Average Temperature<br />
  3. 3. 2009 second warmest year ever <br />
  4. 4. Jan, Feb Mar 2010 warmest ever<br />This is despite a solar sun spot minimum<br />
  5. 5. Climate Forecasts<br /><ul><li>MIT report predicts median temperature forecast of 5.2°C
  6. 6. 11°C increase in Northern Canada & Europe
  7. 7.
  8. 8. Last Ice age average global temperature was 5-6°C cooler than today
  9. 9. Most of Canada & Europe was under 2-3 km ice
  10. 10. With BAU we are talking about 5-6°C change in temperature in the opposite direction in less than 80 Years</li></ul>MIT<br />
  11. 11. Climate Change is not reversible<br />Climate Change is not like acid rain, water management or ozone destruction where environment will quickly return to normal once source of pollution is removed<br />GHG emissions will stay in the atmosphere for thousands of years and continue to accumulate<br />Planet will continue to warm up even if we drastically reduce emissions<br />Weaver et al., GRL (2007)<br />All we hope to achieve is to slow down the rapid rate of climate change<br />
  12. 12. Climate tipping points<br />USGS report finds that future climate shifts have been underestimated and warns of debilitating abrupt shift in climate that would be devastating. <br />Tipping elements in the Earth's climate - National Academies of Science<br />“Society may be lulled into a false sense of security by smooth projections of global change. Our synthesis of present knowledge suggests that a variety of tipping elements could reach their critical point within this century under anthropogenic climate change. “<br />
  13. 13. The Global ICT Carbon Footprint isRoughly the Same as the Aviation Industry Today<br />But ICT Emissions are Growing at 6% Annually!<br /><br />ICT represent 8% of global electricity consumption<br />Projected to grow to as much as 20% of all electrical consumption in the US (<br />Future Broadband- Internet alone is expected to consume 5% of all electricity<br />
  14. 14. The Global ICT Carbon Footprint by Subsector<br />The Number of PCs (Desktops and Laptops) Globally is Expected to Increase from 592 Million in 2002 to More Than Four Billion in 2020 <br /><br />Data Centers & Clouds Are Low Hanging Fruit<br />PCs Are Biggest Problem<br />Telecom & Internet fastest growing<br />
  15. 15. IT biggest power draw<br />Energy Consumption World Wide<br />Transportation<br />25%<br />Energy Consumption Typical Building<br />Buildings<br />50%<br />Lighting<br />11%<br />Manufacturing<br />25%<br />IT Equipment<br /> 30-40%<br />Heating,<br />Cooling<br />and<br />Ventilation<br />40-50%<br />Other<br />6%<br />Sources: BOMA 2006, EIA 2006, AIA 2006<br />
  16. 16. Digital vs Traditional appliances<br />
  17. 17. Growth Projections Data Centers<br />Half of ICT consumption is data centers<br />In ten years 50% of today’s Data Centers and major science facilities in the US will have insufficient power and cooling;*<br />By 2012, half of all Data Centers will have to relocate or outsource applications to another facility.*<br />CO2 emissions from US datacenters greater than all CO2 emissions from Netherlands or Argentina<br />Coal fuels much of Internet 'cloud,' Greenpeace says<br />Data centers will consume 12% of electricity in the US by 2020 (TV Telecom)<br />Source: Gartner; Meeting the DC power and cooling challenge<br />
  18. 18. Green IT Enabling Effect is Significant <br />Can deliver carbon emission reductions five times size of sector’s own footprint by 2020<br />7.8 Giga-tons carbon dioxide equivalent <br />Greater than US or China’s current annual emissions<br />Key sectors include Transportation, Buildings, Industrial Processes, and Power<br />No other sector can achieve this enabler effect !!<br />Source: SMART 2020: Enabling the low carbon economy in the information age, 2008<br />12<br />
  19. 19. The Falsehood of Energy Efficiency<br />Most current approaches to reduce carbon footprint are focused on increased energy efficiency of equipment and processes<br />Also greater efficiency can paradoxically increase energy consumption by reducing overall cost service and therefore stimulates demand<br />Khazzoom-Brookes postulate (aka Jevons paradox - not to be confused with rebound effect)<br />In last Energy crisis in 1973 Congress passed first energy efficiency laws (CAFÉ) which mandate minimum mileage for cars, home insulation and appliances<br />Net effect was to reduce cost of driving car, heating or cooling home, and electricity required for appliances<br />Consumer response was to drive further, buy bigger homes and appliances<br />The issue is not the amount of energy that we use, but the type of energy<br />
  20. 20. More on Energy Efficiency<br />If we add all of the potential savings from energy efficiency, they only abate about 25% of GHG emissions.<br /> To make matters worse, the “low hanging fruit” will grow smaller over time, decreasing returns to our efforts.<br />“To reduce our GHG emissions by 85 percent by 2050, we need radical innovation to provide clean energy alternatives, rather than just using carbon-based fuels a bit more efficiently. ”<br />ITIF Institute - Debunking the Myths of Global Climate Change<br />Offsetting efficiency savings will be more people in the US in the next decase(391 million vs. 305 million), more households (147 million vs. 113 million), more vehicles (297 million vs. 231 million) and a bigger economy (almost double in size). Obama's Energy Pipe Dreams<br />15<br />
  21. 21. Zero Carbon strategy essential<br />Zero carbon strategy using renewable energy critically important if governments mandate carbon neutrality, or if there is a climate catastrophe<br />With a zero carbon strategy growth in demand for services will not effect GHG emissions<br />Anything times zero is always zero<br />Wind and solar power are most likely candidates because of opportunity cost/benefit analysis especially time to deploy<br />Nuclear has high opportunity cost because of time to deploy<br /><br />But renewable energy sites are usually located far from cities and electrical distribution systems are not designed to carry load<br /><br />Local wind/solar will be an important component<br />
  22. 22. Grand Challenge – Building solutions using renewable energy only<br />Most government GHG plans plan to 30-40% of electrical power will come from renewable sources <br />How do you provide mission critical services when energy source is unreliable?<br />Ebbing wind or setting sun<br />Back up diesel and batteries are not an option because they are not zero carbon and power outages can last for days or weeks<br />Need new energy delivery architectures and business models to ensure reliable service delivery<br />R&E networks and clouds can play a critical role <br />Not so much in energy efficiency, but building smart solutions that adapt to availability of renewable power<br />
  23. 23. MIT to build zero carbon data center in Holyoke MA<br />The data center will be managed and funded by the four main partners in the facility: the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cisco Systems, the University of Massachusetts and EMC.<br />It will be a high-performance computing environment that will help expand the research and development capabilities of the companies and schools in Holyoke<br /><br />
  24. 24. Evolving Internet & Impact on GHG<br />Van Jacobson predicted several years ago evolution away from “end-to-end” Internet to information Internet<br /><br />Current Internet is based on old telco architecture of connecting users<br />New Internet is based on connecting users to information<br />Arbor study has vindicated Van Jacobson prediction<br />C. Labovitz, et al  "ATLAS Internet Observatory 2009 Annual Report"<br />Over 50% of Internet traffic is from handful of information suppliers such as Google, Akamai, Content Distribution networks etc<br />Will have major impact on wireless networks as we move from “end to end” cell phone network to cell phone Internet<br />19<br />
  25. 25. Traditional Internet<br />Small Content<br />Provider <br />User’s Computer<br />Backbone<br /> ISP1<br />Fiber<br /> Networks<br />Regional<br />ISP<br />Last mile<br /> ISP<br />Backbone ISP 2<br />IX<br />Thousands of miles<br />IX<br />Last mile<br /> ISP<br />Backbone<br /> ISP 3<br />Large Content<br />Provider with multiple servers<br />User’s Computer<br />
  26. 26. Information Internet – zero carbon<br />Small Content<br />Provider <br />User’s Computer<br />Backbone<br /> ISP1<br />Regional<br />ISP<br />Last mile<br /> ISP<br />Backbone ISP 2<br />IX<br />IX<br />Backbone<br /> ISP 3<br />Last mile<br /> ISP<br />Nearby<br /> Cloud<br />CDN<br />Large Content<br />Provider <br />User’s Computer<br />Content<br /> hosted in ACI <br />
  27. 27. New Internet<br />Increasingly most connections will be local to nearest IX where user will connect to cloud, CDN or social network<br />Connections to another user or computer at the edge of the cloud will be less common<br />Network topologies and architectures will be driven by application and content rather than connecting users “end-to-end”<br />Cyber-infrastructure and UCLP were forerunners of these development<br />Future wireless networks are likely to also evolve in this manner<br />Don’t need an end to end network for accessing applications and content<br />User white space and wifi to provide data to cell phones<br />Next network neutrality battleground will be “last inch” – open devices and “last tower” - <br />Much easier to deploy zero carbon Internet<br />CDN, clouds and social network infrastructure can be built along GSN model<br />Users will increasingly use solar powered iPhone, iPad to access information and applications<br />22<br />
  28. 28. Grand Challenge – Building robust ICT services using renewable energy only<br />30% of electrical power will come from renewable sources <br />How do you provide mission critical ICT services when energy source is unreliable?<br />Ebbing wind or setting sun<br />Back up diesel and batteries are not an option because they are not zero carbon and power outages can last for days or weeks<br />Need new network architectures and business models to ensure reliable service delivery by quickly moving compute jobs and data sets around the world to sites that have available power<br />Will require high bandwidth networks and routing architectures to quickly move jobs and data sets from site to site<br />
  29. 29. GENI Topology optimized by source destination <br />Sensor Network<br />Thin Client<br /> Edge Site<br /> Mobile Wireless Network<br />Wind Power<br />Substrate<br />Router<br />Solar Power<br />Wireless<br />Base Station<br />Source: Peter Freeman NSF<br />
  30. 30. Mobile Wireless Network<br />GENI with router nodes at renewable energy sites<br />Sensor Network<br />Wind Power<br />Substrate<br />Router<br />Solar Power<br />Wireless<br />Base Station<br />Thin Client<br /> Edge Site<br />Topology optimized by availability of energy<br />Source: Peter Freeman NSF<br />
  31. 31. GreenStar –Clouds and Virtualization<br /><br /><ul><li> Sandbox for developing “green” communications enabled applications, such as clouds, Web services, virtualization, dematerialization, sensors, etc.
  32. 32. Share infrastructure & maximize lower cost power by “following wind & sun” networks.
  33. 33. Develop benchmarking tools to earn CO2 offset dollars for university and ICT department</li></li></ul><li>GreenStar Network<br />World’s first zero carbon network<br />Nodes in Ireland, USA Spain and Belgium to be added shortly<br /><br />
  34. 34. Greenstar Team<br />iDeal<br />28<br />
  35. 35. Building a “5G” wireless network<br />Over 100,000 cell phone towers to be powered by renewable energy by 2012<br />Vertical axis turbines and solar<br />Existing 3G and 4G networks cannot handle data load<br />Need to offload data at nearest node or tower<br />New Wifi standards 802.11u allow for data handoff from 3G networks<br />WiFi nodes can be powered by renewable sources such as roof top solar panel over 400Hz power systems or ethernet power<br />Cell phones also become sensors<br />SURFnet – Dutch R&E network to deploy <br />
  36. 36. Impact of 5G networks<br />30<br />The PC is out of the loop<br />The phone is a sensor platform<br />Hardware add-on innovation<br />Location based sensing<br />Touch screen UI<br />Processing is done in real time in the cloud<br />Allowing processing that can’t be done on the device<br />Big data analysis<br />Building new networks on the back of existing ones<br />Reinventing a major industry<br />Source: Tim OReilly<br />
  37. 37. Cap and reward – “gCommerce”<br />Although carbon taxes or cap and trade are revenue neutral, they payee rarely sees any direct benefit<br />No incentive other than higher cost to reduce footprint<br />Rather than penalize consumers and businesses for carbon emissions, can we reward them for reducing their carbon emissions?<br />Carbon rewards can be low carbon services and products delivered over broadband networks such movies, books, education, health services, collaborative education and research technologies etc<br />Carbon reward can also be free services (with low carbon footprint) such as Internet, cellphone, fiber to the home, etc<br />
  38. 38. What are carbon offsets?<br />Many claims of energy savings can only be proven through rigorous process of carbon measurement (ISO 14064)<br />Now required by many financial auditors to verify internal green processes e.g. TD bank<br />Also critical for compliance with EPA and government regulations<br />E.g. Most universities in the US must report as they emit over 25,000 tons<br />Can also be used for internal trading and with customers or external markets<br />Carbon trading currently almost dead - Two types of markets<br />Regulated markets – Alberta, BC , Europe and New England<br />Voluntary markets – Air Canada, Chicago, etc<br />Companies or individuals buy carbon offsets from projects that remove or reduce carbon<br />Planting trees, building hydro dams, installing energy efficient processes, etc<br />
  39. 39. The Carbon Economy<br />$500 billion - Value of low-carbon energy markets by 2050<br />$100 billion - Demand for projects generating GHG missions credits by 2030<br />Global carbon market expected to grow 58% this year to $92 billion <br />Carbon market could be worth billions for telecoms & IT<br />Green Telecom market $122 billion by 2014<br /><br />Source: ClimateCheck<br />20<br />
  40. 40. Do your ISO 14064 NOW!<br />Many governments demanding “green” compliance on RFPs<br />UK government shadow RFPs<br />ISO 14064 products and services will be eligible for government funds<br />New Quebec $60m Green IT program<br />Rumoured Green IT gas tax in Quebec<br />Next Y2K will be CO2K !!<br />Businesses and governments will have to upgrade computer systems to be 14064 compliant<br />Learn how to do private trading of offsets with customers<br />New revenue stream for ICT products<br />
  41. 41. Final remarks<br />The problem we face is NOT energy consumption, but carbon emissions<br />Think carbon, not energy<br />We must start addressing climate change now – not in 2050 or 2020<br />80% reduction in CO2 emissions will fundamentally change everything we do including universities and networks<br />Huge potential for innovation and new business opportunities for green communications enabled applications because 30% of energy must come from renewable sources<br />
  42. 42. Let’s Keep The Conversation Going<br />E-mail list<br /><br />Blogspot<br />Bill St. Arnaud<br /><br />Twitter<br /><br />