While most analysts call for speeds of 100 Mbps to enable multiple streams of HDTV, Wayne says that's shortsighted. This 2006 presentation helps justify fiber-to-the-home and gigabit speeds with examples of applications that need that performance.

1. See the future of
BIG Broadband
and Gigabit-to-the-Home
by Wayne Caswell
© CAZITech Consulting, 2006
Photo courtesy of Sandia National Laboratories

2. TOPICS:
• Alternative Futures
• The Case for BIG Broadband
• Addressing Social Issues
• FTTH Technical Tutorial
• Fiber as Public Infrastructure
• Residential Gateways
by Wayne Caswell
© CAZITech Consulting, 2006

3. Alternative Futures
MKT-DRIVEN ENABLING
REQUIREMENTS INFRASTRUCTURE
“BIG” BROADBAND
Invest in network Invest in excess
BROADBAND
capacity to satisfy capacity ahead of
bandwidth needs of market demand to PUBLIC SECTOR
popular & profitable encourage
applications. innovation and BENEFIT-DRIVEN
Discourage use of enable new apps Political and Citizen-Focused
BW-intensive apps that would not Free or Low Cost Encourages High Adoption
that increase costs evolve otherwise. Economy Drives More Capacity Investment
or slow performance (attract business, close divide, incr.tax base)
of others.
PROFIT-DRIVEN
Business case needs ROI & Quick Payback
High Adoption Rate * High ARPU (monopoly)
From Fixed Price to Usage-based
(by Time, Volume, Transaction)
PRIVATE INDUSTRY

4. Alternative Futures
Continued
PUBLIC
 Legislators can’t ignore early successes  BB FTTH becomes strategic infrastructure for
from Muni Wireless and Regional Fiber public safety, public health, economic
initiatives and remove limiting laws development, jobs, education, and innovation
 Rural & underserved communities adopt  Open access provides level playing field for
WiMAX & Wi-Fi Mesh at increasing rate to competition through Fiber & Wireless
address digital divide, economic  Beyond interactive entertainment, G2Home
development, and other social issues enables social benefits unheard of before
 Public-Private partnerships increase  US regains world tech leadership due to BB
 BW varies widely by municipality, so many adoption, pricing and capabilities
BIG BB opportunities still go unfulfilled  G2Home initiative provides nearly unlimited
BW, but still need tiered pricing to prevent abuse
BB BIG BB
 Prices fall slightly as DSL & Cable operators  FTTH only in new (green field) and wealthy
face new competition from wireless & BPL (high-margin) neighborhoods, ignoring others
 Usage varies with all-you-can-eat pricing  Popular fixed-priced pricing of service bundles
due to a few users of BW-intensive apps lock out competitors, causing overall prices to
 24-100 Mbps possible but operators throttle rise with IPTV and users of BW-intensive apps
usage as costs grow faster than revenue  Digital Divide widens considerably, social
 Broadcast still dominates over IPTV unrest increases, US position in world economy
 Digital Divide remains since rural & low- falters, and Congress is eventually forced to
income populations remain underserved react to the lack of competition
 BIG BB opportunities go unfulfilled
PRIVATE

5. BIG Broadband
A New Philosophy
Bandwidth is becoming a strategic imperative as
governments weigh public policy versus profit motives.
Is BIG Broadband driven by market demand
for bandwidth-intensive applications?
… or …
Is BIG Broadband an Enabler of innovation
and apps that would not appear otherwise?

6. BIG Broadband & Clutter’s Law
A New Philosophy
Bandwidth is getting cheaper faster than storage.
Storage is getting cheaper faster than computing.
The exponentials are crossing.
“A global economy designed
to waste transistors, power, and silicon area
-and conserve bandwidth above all-
is breaking apart and reorganizing itself
to waste bandwidth
and conserve power, silicon area, and transistors."
(George Gilder, Telecosm, 2000)
www.ces.net/doc/seminars/20040525/ pr/customer_empowered_networking_thru_UCLP.ppt

7. The Broadband
BOTTLENECK
Hurts Upstream Benefactors
 Application Service Providers
 Network Equipment Manufacturers
 PC & CE Manufacturers
 Content Providers …
Hurts Downstream Consumers
 Education & Jobs
 Healthcare
 Commuting & Lifestyle …
Hurts Communities & Government
 Failing Local Competitiveness
 Loss of World Tech Leadership
 National Security Risk
 Increasing Social Unrest …

8. Without BIG Broadband in place, many applications will not emerge, and while
today’s consumer may place low value on them, that would change if the apps
Network Requirements
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9. Value vs. Bandwidth & Latency
Network Requirements
bandwidth. Even high-twitch multi-player games need fast latency but little
bandwidth. When implemented, medical & sensor alerts have high value.
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NOTE: These relative measures of Application VALUE versus Network Requirements (bandwidth & latency) are subjective.
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Bandwidth

10. Pricing influences
BEHAVIOR
From Fixed Price to Tiered Pricing to prevent Abuse of
Bandwidth by Consumers AND Network Operators
BACKGROUND:
 Application value (phone & TV) justified initial NW investments.
 But always-on convergence and the ability to send these apps over
competing networks gave consumers new choices and commoditized
application value (e.g. long distance & local phone, music)
 So, network build-out is now only justified by:
– Private industry’s Triple Play bundles to lock customers and increase ARPU
– Municipalities as strategic public infrastructure
 Either way, excess capacity is quickly consumed by early adopters
according to Clutter’s Law: “Clutter expands to fill the space available.”
– Since applications and users become wasteful of bandwidth, storage &
computing capacity, network operators will seek ways to contain abuse by a
few in order to better serve all, possibly throttling innovation too.
 Usage-based Pricing based on Time, Volume, Transaction, etc.

11. Pricing influences
BEHAVIOR
Chargeback systems recovered costs but discouraged use.
LESSONS FROM CORPORATE IT CHARGEBACK SYSTEMS:
 ―All-you-can-eat‖ policies encouraged individual departments & users to
waste ―expensive‖ IT resources, so chargeback helped recover costs.
– But users didn’t understand billing based on computer terms (e.g. MIPS), and
these schemes failed to reward the apps with the most business value.
 Even business measurements failed (orders taken, invoices printed).
– In general, chargeback ―discouraged‖ computer use instead of encouraging it.
 As computing ideology moved from Expense to Strategic
Initiative, chargeback systems, if they survived at all, produced ―virtual
bills‖ to discourage abuse or found ways to encourage strategic apps at
the expense of frivolous ones.

12. Pricing influences
BEHAVIOR
Tiered Pricing can be based on Time, Volume or Transaction
TIERED PRICING can also be DYNAMIC
 Bandwidth-intensive apps subsidize bandwidth-conservative apps
 High-value subscribers subsidize low-income subscribers, economic
development, and public safety.
 Access to city portals and government pages is always free.
 First hour is free to encourage use, then charged on a sliding scale.
– Low-volume apps are free (email, chat, browsing, sensor alerts)
– But High-volume apps require a fee (music/video streaming & download)
 Apps with high social value are free (education, telemedicine)
 Apps with business benefit require a fee (teleconference, telework)
 Premium fees for apps consuming the most capacity
(HDTV, telepresence)

13. TOPICS:
• Alternative Futures
• The Case for BIG Broadband
• Addressing Social Issues
• FTTH Technical Tutorial
• Fiber as Public Infrastructure
• Residential Gateways
by Wayne Caswell
© CAZITech Consulting, 2006

14. Big Broadband
The case for 100 Mbps
 Dial-up speeds (28.8–56 Kbps) limit Internet Applications:
Text & Data (email & chat)
Web Browsing with simple images
Digital Music compressed with low quality sampling rates for small files
Internet Telephone (VoIP)
 Broadband (1-5 Mbps) supports More Applications:
Digital Music Downloads & Streaming with near-CD quality
Digital Photography & Sharing of Photos
Video Conferencing with video in a small window
Video Streaming with low quality in a window
Video Surveillance with small images or slow refresh rate
 Big Broadband (100 Mbps) supports Even More Apps:
High Quality Digital Music
HDTV: 4-5 simultaneous streams (1080i MPEG-2 needs ~20 Mbps)
Download Movies in minutes instead of hours
Video Conferencing that’s almost like being there

15. Big Broadband
The case for 100 Mbps
But is 100 Mbps enough?
 Possibly multiple HDTV streams per TV
Simultaneous DVR recordings to watch later
3-5 HDTV streams * 20 Mbps each = 100 Mbps, but what about Picture-in-Picture?
Large HDTV displays can support Picture Marquee (4-9 streams per TV)
 Fast Channel Change
Consumers will want to ―flip‖ through IPTV channels just like broadcast
channels, but that can mean switching between different servers.
 New HDTV Format: 1080p
The Resolution of 1080i (great on big screens) + the Speed of 720p (30 fps)
Needs 30+ Mbps (more than cable, satellite or terrestrial broadcaster has)
Without Big Broadband, market success is limited by a fierce DVD standards war.
 Video Compression impacts quality, at least to some extent
MPEG-4 and WM-9 use less bandwidth than MPEG-2 but with tradeoffs.
Example: Can’t see fast moving golf ball leave the tee

16. BIG Broadband
Gigabit-to-the-Home Enables More
 Rich Peer-to-Peer Collaboration
Remote musicians perform together with the high bandwidth and short latency of fiber
networks.
 Third Wave Computing
Consumers are dusting off their video archive to share online. As more apps move from PCs to
the Internet, there’s less need for local hard drives except as a buffer. Data moved to trusted
services is secure and protected, accessable anywhere, and shared with authorized visitors.
 Massively Parallel Computing Grid
Consumers share the capacity of otherwise-idle PCs across high-speed networks that enable
massively parallel computing applications such as predicting the effect of global warming.
 Download to Portable Device & Go
Downloading The Matrix (7.8 GB in MPEG2 DVD format, not HDTV) takes 11.5 hours at 1.5
Mbps, 10.5 minutes at 100 Mbps, 1 minute at 1 Gbps, and 6 seconds at 10 Mbps. Future
portable devices with HDTV resolution will need even faster speeds.
 3D TV, Organic LEDs & UHDTV
3D TV requires even more bandwidth, LEDs will bring HDTV resolution to handheld
displays, and nanotech materials will make wall-size displays practical. The 1080p HDTV
resolution won’t be enough, so researchers are already working on Ultra-high Definition TV.
UHDTV needs bandwidth exceeding 10 Gbps.

17. BIG Broadband unlikely?
Consider these False Predictions
 INVENTION
– "Everything that can be invented has been invented." – Charles H.
Duell, commissioner of the US Patent Office, recommending that his office
should be abolished (1899)
 COMPUTERS
– "I think there is a world market for about five computers." –
Thomas J. Watson Jr., chairman of IBM (1943)
– "640K [of computer memory] ought to be enough for anybody." –
Bill Gates, founder and CEO of Microsoft (1981)
 INTERNET
– "Almost all of the many predictions now being made about 1996
hinge on the Internet's continuing exponential growth. But I
predict the Internet will soon go spectacularly supernova and in
1996 catastrophically collapse." – Robert Metcalfe, founder of 3Com
and inventor of Ethernet (1995)

18. BIG Broadband unlikely?
Consider these False Predictions
… CONTINUED
 TELEPHONE
– "Well-informed people know it is impossible to transmit the voice
over wires and that were it possible to do so, the thing would be of
no practical value." – Boston Post (1865)
 RADIO
– "The wireless music box has no imaginable commercial value.
Who would pay for a message sent to nobody in particular?" –
David Sarnoff's associates responding to his urgings for investment in radio
(April 1912)
 TELEVISION
– "Television won't last because people will soon get tired of staring
at a plywood box every night." – Darryl Zanuck, Movie Producer, 20th
Century Fox (1946)
 ELCTRIC POWER
– "Fooling around with alternating current is just a waste of time.
Nobody will use it, ever." – Thomas Edison (1889)

19. BIG Broadband
for “Multiple” HDTV streams per TV
DVR / Media Center
Multiple Recordings
Sports Marquee
Multiple HD Channels
Surveillance
Multiple Cameras
… simultaneously

20. BIG Broadband
for “Multiple” HDTV streams per TV
… CONTINUED
SURVEILLANCE MOVES TOWARD MASS MARKET with:
 Higher Resolution Images
Better Image Quality reveals more information
 Faster Frame Rate
Smoother motion
 More Cameras
CCD image sensors already in Cameras & PDAs
 Cheap & Small CMOS sensors
On-chip pixel processing
Great when most of the image is static
Will enable Facial & Gesture Recognition

21. BIG Broadband
for Fast IPTV Channel Switching
 IPTV is part of a Mass Personalization trend
On-demand & Interactive features yield deep consumer understanding.
This enables very Personalized content and Ad insertions
 IPTV Complements & Threatens DTV Broadcast model
Broadcast is for Large Demographic; IPTV for Special Interests.
Free spectrum + multicasting = better pictures + more channels.
With more Free channels, do consumers even need Cable or Satellite?
IPTV can satisfy Even More Special Interests.
 IPTV needs the same experience
Consumers channel surf quickly with a remote control.
The TV ―quickly‖ tunes to specific channel Frequencies.
But IPTV may need to connect to Distributed Video Servers.
 Picture-in-Picture amplifies the effect
Picture marquee makes it even worse.

22. BIG Broadband
for Fast IPTV Channel Switching
FCC reclaims
IPTV growing but still Low Penetration analog TV
spectrum
NOT yet Pervasive
Growth needs
Big Broadband
2009

23. BIG Broadband
for new HDTV format
 1080p is new HDTV format that blends the best of:
1080i (Highest resolution for large 40+‖ displays) … and …
720p (60 fps progressive scan for rapid action versus 30 fps)
 BUT, 1080p broadcasts need 30+ Mbps
Cable, satellite & terrestrial broadcasters can’t handle that today.
 AND, DVDs can’t store an entire movie
Studios want new DVD format w/ better DRM before releasing content.
Competing DVD formats are in a Standards War.
Blue-ray (Sony & most CE companies) versus
HD-DVD (Intel, Microsoft, NEC & Toshiba)
Sony PS3 will include Blue-ray DVD player and support 1080p.

24. BIG Broadband
for Rich Peer-to-Peer Collaboration
Multi-player
Gaming
Distributed, I
mmersive
Performance
Signing & Lip
Reading for
the Deaf
TelePresence
breaks
Distance
Barriers
Collaborative Music Performance over Internet 2

25. BIG Broadband
for Rich Peer-to-Peer Collaboration
… CONTINUED
LIVE STREAMING:
 Latency is a Crucial Limiting Factor
– Only ~ 20-40 ms is unnoticeable
(for universal interactive applications)
– In gaming, delays mean you get shot
 Tradeoff: Latency versus bandwidth
– Compression reduces bandwidth
– But: high compression increases latency
(e.g., interframe MPEG compression)
 Approach:
– Experiment within this design space
e.g. resolution, frame rate, SW/HW codecs
vs. uncompressed audio & video

26. BIG Broadband
for Rich Peer-to-Peer Collaboration
Live HD Video Streaming with No Latency Delay
1280x720 pixels

27. BIG Broadband
for Third Wave Computing
INTERNET APPLICATIONS
First Wave – Text & Data services such as e-mail & FTP
Second Wave – Images, sound & video improve Ease of Use
Apps tightly APPLICATION APPLICATION Network is
bound to OS subservient
NETWORK to computer
OS OS
DATA DATA
Third Wave – The Network is the Computer
Apps & Data User Interface User Interface Computer is
exist on the subservient
Network NETWORK to Network
OS OS
APPLICATION APPLICATION APPLICATION APPLICATION Web Services, Open Source,
Peer-to-Peer, Distributed,
OS OS OS OS
Agents, Java Spaces,
Creative Commons
DATA DATA DATA DATA

28. BIG Broadband
for Massively Parallel Computing
 The World Community Grid
– Many individual PCs join together to create a large system with massive
computational power that far surpasses that of a handful of
supercomputers.
– Because the work is split into small pieces that can be processed
simultaneously, research time is reduced from years to months.
– More cost-effective technology enables better use of critical funds.
– Data access speed is a critical limiting factor, but BIG Broadband offers
remote access at local hard disk speeds.
 Examples:
– Detect extraterrestrial intelligence through analysis of radio telescope data
– Human Proteome Folding Project
– UNAIDS, the Joint United Nations Program to Fight HIV & AIDS

29. BIG Broadband
For Mobile Devices (Download & Go)
Passive Broadcast Interactive On-Demand Mobile
Downloading The Matrix (7.8 GB in SDTV DVD format)
Delivery Method Days Hours Minutes
Dial-up (56 Kbps) 13
Pony Express 11a
Wireless (512 Kbps) 1.5b
DSL (640 Kbps) 1
Cable (1.5 Mbps) 11.5
T1 (1.54 Mbps) 11
FedEx 10c
Ethernet (10 Mbps) 2
Fast Ethernet (100 Mbps) 10.5
Gigabit Ethernet (1000 Mbps) 1
a
New York to California: extrapolated from record delivery time of 7 days 17 hours, Download & Go
traveling approximately 2,000 miles (from St. Joseph, Missouri to Sacramento, CA)
b
Maximum 150 users per node
c
Express delivery from New York, NY 10005 to Beverly Hills, CA 90210 CONSULTING

30. BIG Broadband
for Ultra-High Definition Television
 Japan Broadcasting Company
– Demo of Early Prototype
– Over a 24 Gbps Fiber Network
– 18 minute video = 3.5 TB storage
 For Room Size Displays
– 450‖ (37’) Diagonal
 16x the Resolution of HDTV
– 7680x4320 pixels (vs. 1920x1080)
– 32M total pixels (vs. 2M)
– 60 frames/sec (vs. 30)
 22.2 Channel Audio
– 10 at ear level, 9 above, 3 below

31. BACKUP
BIG Broadband “Pipes”
For Today’s Apps AND Emerging Apps
DSL, Cable
… AND …
Digital Music (28-700+ Kbps)
JPG Images (28—2500 Kbps)
Uncompressed Photo (1000-10000 KB)
SDTV (500-2000 Kbps)
Video Conference (500-2000 Kbps)
Dialup FTTH advanced
Text, Data (300 bps) … AND …
Phone (8-64 Kbps) Fast Channel Switching
HDTV Download & Go
FTTH basic
FTTH basic Surveillance (multiple cameras)
… AND …
… AND … Peer-to-Peer (virtual concert)
SDTV (MPEG2: 4000-6000 Kbps)
SDTV (MPEG2: 4000-6000 Kbps) Third Wave Computing
HDTV (MPEG2 1080i: 20,000 Kbps)
HDTV (MPEG2 1080i: 20,000 Kbps) Massively Parallel Grid
HD Video Conference (6000-20,000 Kbps)
HD Video Conference (6000-20,000 Kbps) Organic LEDs & UHDTV
56
Kbps 1 Mbps 100 Mbps Fiber 1-10 Gbps Fiber

32. TOPICS:
• Alternative Futures
• The Case for BIG Broadband
• Addressing Social Issues
• FTTH Technical Tutorial
• Fiber as Public Infrastructure
• Residential Gateways
by Wayne Caswell
© CAZITech Consulting, 2006

33. BIG Broadband
Addressing Social Issues
 Drive Universal Broadband Adoption
– We ―invented‖ the Internet and once led the world in access
– But we have now fallen to 16th in percent of homes subscribing
 Economic Development
– Must regain our lost 60-year Tech Leadership (science grid)
 TeleWork
– Improve Employment options while Reducing Traffic
 TeleMedicine
– Contain Healthcare Costs with aging population
 Distance Learning
– Must recover from a Crisis in Education
 Bridge the Digital Divide
– Leaving people (and towns) behind will drain the economy
 Improve National Security
– It’s a matter of Survival

34. BIG Broadband
Toward Universal Adoption
Goal: “This country needs a national goal for broadband technology…
universal, affordable access by 2007.”
- President George W. Bush, Albuquerque, NM, March 2004
Benefits: “Broadband will not only help industry; it’ll help the quality of life
of our citizens.”
• Tele-Work
• Tele-Medicine
• Distance Learning
• National Security
• Jobs and Economic Growth
- President George W. Bush, Albuquerque, US Department of Commerce, June 2004
Government’s Role: “The role of government is not to create wealth;
the role of our government is to create an environment in which the
entrepreneur can flourish, in which minds can expand, in which
technologies can reach new frontiers.”
- President George W. Bush, Technology Agenda, November 2002
CONSULTING

35. Big Broadband:
Toward Universal Adoption
… CONTINUED
Economic Environment: “We ought not to tax access to broadband. If you
want something to flourish, don’t tax it.”
• Extend Internet tax moratorium to Nov.2007, possibly permanent
• Extend R&D tax credit, possibly permanent
• Accelerate depreciation for capital equipment
- President George W. Bush, Baltimore, April 2004
Regulatory Environment: “Broadband providers have trouble getting across
federal lands. That’s why I signed an order to reduce the regulatory red tape
for laying fiber optic cables and putting up transmission towers.”
• Improve access to Rights-of-Way
• FCC frees new fiber infrastructure from legacy regulation
• Verizon, SBC and Bell South to wire 20M new homes by 2007 (>$6B)
• Pending rewrite of 1996 Telecom Act
- President George W. Bush, Baltimore, April 2004
CONSULTING

36. BIG Broadband
Toward Universal Adoption
… CONTINUED
Beware of statistics & forecasts designed to impress:
―95% of U.S. zip codes can access broadband today.‖
20% of the population has No access,
and others have no Competition.
―Broadband will be in 62% of US households by 2010.‖
The FCC defines High-speed Internet access as
anything faster than 200 Kbps in any one direction.
Already, 75% of South Korean households have broadband
that is 10-20 * faster and costs 10-25 * less.
In 1992, the Bells promised fiber and speeds of >45 Mbps
in each direction, in order to get regulatory concessions.
CONSULTING

37. BIG Broadband
Toward Universal Adoption
… CONTINUED
―Broadband will be in 62% of US households by 2010.‖
(BUT at what speed and what cost?)
35
30
Cable Modems
25
Subscribers (M)
DSL Lines
20
15
10
5
0
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2Q'04
Source: NCTA 2004 Year End Industry Overview
Source: FCC 2004 CONSULTING

38. BIG Broadband
for Economic Development
In 2005, US lost its 60-year tech leadership because
We now rank 12th in Broadband Adoption per 100 Inhabitants
DSL Cable Other Total TOTAL
per 100 per 100 per 100 per 100 Rank Subscribers
Korea 14.1 8.5 2.2 24.9 1 11,921,439
Netherlands 11.6 7.4 0 19.0 2 3,084,561
Denmark 11.8 5.5 1.6 18.8 3 1,013,500
Iceland 17.4 0.2 0.7 18.3 4 53,264
Canada 8.6 9.1 0.1 17.8 5 5,631,714
Switzerland 10.8 6.5 0 17.3 6 1,282,000
Belgium 9.6 6.0 0 15.6 7 1,618,944
Japan 10.4 2.3 2.3 15.0 8 19,097,172
Finland 11.2 2.2 1.6 15.0 9 779,929
Norway 12.3 2.0 0.5 14.9 10 680,000
Sweden 9.5 2.6 2.5 14.5 11 1,302,861
United States 4.7 7.4 0.9 13.0 12 37,900,000
Source: Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, Dec.2004 3rd in 2000

39. BIG Broadband
for Economic Development
The International Telecommunications Union (ITU) ranks the US in 16th place.
US Ranks 12th in Broadband Adoption per 100 Inhabitants
30
25 Community Wireless
DSL Cable Other That’s why municipalities without
broadband install their own Wi-Fi.
20
15
10
OECD average
5
0
Au om
Ic e rk
m
Me lic
l
Sl o Rep nd
e ch Pol a d
te s
Re bli c
Au Ital y
No nd
Fin an
rg
Po ny
De nds
a
G e a in
d
Tu o
G re ey
rl a a
e ce
w Z trali a
Ire y
em tria
Ki n ce
ga
Hu and
Sw ay
i ted ed en
Be nd
lan
Sw anad
lan
Ne Kore
r
x ic
a
l giu
pub
bou
nga
a
la
rk
J ap
gd
i ted Fra n
nm
rtu
rw
Sta
rl a
Sp
u
s
rm
eal
s
i tze
C
the
va k
Lux
Un
Ne
Un
Cz
Source: Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, Dec.2004 CONSULTING

40. BIG Broadband
for Tele-Work
 Traffic Issue APPLICATION REQUIREMENT
– Commute Time Text 300 bps
– Fuel Costs Telephone 8-64 Kbps
 Environmental Issue Color Image 25-2,500 Kbps
– Emissions Digital Photos 1,000-10,000 Kbps
 Employer Issue Digital Music 128-700 Kbps
– Improve Productivity Video Conferencing 512-2,000 Kbps
– Hire & Keep Talent MPEG-4 VoD (Internet) 250-750 Kbps
– Reduce Offshoring Costs MPEG-2 (DVD, Satellite) 4,000-6,000 Kbps
– Real Estate Costs, Travel HDTV (1080i MPEG-2) 20,000 Kbps
 Employee Issue
– Family Values
 National Security Issue
– Continuity of Operations
CONSULTING

41. BIG Broadband
for Tele-Work
… CONTINUED
US Broadband Basics – Speed & Price
# ADSL Speeds depend on customer's distance from provider's central office. Cable line speeds can vary due to bandwidth sharing.
These speeds are maximum without sharing. Prices are based on customer also subscribing to phone service or cable TV service.
10-20 times slower than in France & South Korea
10-25 times more expensive than in Japan
Notice the slow upload speeds.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau CONSULTING

42. BIG Broadband
for Tele-Work
Loudoun Magazine Art
Director Elizabeth Harding
Fall 2004 Issue confers with CEO Brett
Phillips, Deputy Editor
Layout Options Elizabeth Wilmer and
• Fashion Shot
• Designer Home
Managing Editor Rita
• Landscape Walston while debating
• Editor Portrait
pros and cons of a
candidate magazine cover.
Participants could page
through to discuss
candidate covers.
(mock-up screen shot)
TeleWork
• Collaborative documents
• Nonverbal communication
• More like “being there”
• Requires 512+ Kbps bandwidth in both directions
CONSULTING

43. BIG Broadband
for Tele-Medicine
Population Distribution
Male Female
78.9 85+
80-84 Baby Boom
75-79
75.2 70-74
65-69
60-64
1 55-59
69.4 9
50-54
45-49
40-44
Population 65 6
0
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-25
Years and Over 15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
(in millions) will 53.2
double by 2030 85+
80-84
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
65+ 1 55-59
50-54
39.4 9 45-49
85+ 9
40-44
35-39
30-34
34.7 0 25-29
20-25
15-19
31.1 10-14
5-9
0-4
25.6
85+
80-84
20.0 75-79
70-74
16.6 2
65-69
60-64
55-59
0 50-54
45-49
8.9 2 40-44
35-39
0 30-34
25-29
3.1 4.2 20-25
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
6 5 4 3 2 1 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 % Total % Total
Source: U.S. Census Bureau Population Population

44. BIG Broadband
for Distance Learning
Other nations outpace US in engineering graduates
# of 1st degree in Engineering / Science
240,000
220,000
200,000
180,000
160,000
140,000
120,000
100,000
3X
80,000
60,000
40,000
Each
20,000
0
U.S.
Russia
India
China
Japan
Taiwan
European
S Korea
Union
Source: National Science Board, ―Science and Engineering Indicators – 2004‖;
Table 2-33. Russia, India and S Korea data from University of Texas NCR Report 2004 CONSULTING

45. BIG Broadband
for Distance Learning
Rates for entry into college / university , the U.S. ranks 14th*
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Kingdom
Netherlands
Finland
Poland
Sweden
Zealand
Denmark
Australia
Norway
USA
Hungary
Iceland
Italy
Korea
Spain
United
New
CONSULTING
Source: Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD),
Education at a Glance, OECD Indicators, 2003 Edition

46. BIG Broadband
for Distance Learning
Percentage of the population scoring at IALS literacy
% level 3 or higher on the document scale, 1994-95
90 16-25 yrs of age 46-55 yrs of age
80
77 76
73
67 67 66 66
62
58 56
52 52 52 53
49 50 51
46 45 47 45 45
34 35
17
0
Australia
Zealand
Belgium
Kingdom
Canada
Germany
United
Poland
Ireland
Netherlands
States
Sweden
Switzerland
Switzerland
United
New
(Fr)
(g)
Source: Centre for Educational Research and Innovation, Organization for Economic
Cooperation and Development, Education at a Glance OECD Indicators 1998
CONSULTING

47. BIG Broadband
to Bridge the Digital Divide
Of Every 100 Kindergartners:
Latino (24 year-olds) White
62 Graduate High School 91
29 Complete Some College 62
6 Obtain Bachelors Degree+ 30
Source: US Bureau of Census, Current Population Reports,
Educational Attainment in the United States; March 2000
College Graduates by Age 24
BROADBAND at HOME Young People from High Income Families 48%
<10% of HH w/ income <$25K
60% of HH w/ income >$150K Young People from Low Income Families 7%
Source: Tom Mortenson, Research Seminar on Public Policy Analysis of
Opportunity for Post Secondary, 1997 in From: Latino Health Care Project, Report
at Casey Journalism School for Children and Families
CONSULTING

48. BIG Broadband
to Bridge the Digital Divide
Technology for All
Houston’s Free Wi-Fi network
for Low Income Neighborhoods
MIT’s $100 Computer
Aimed at 3rd World countries,
500 MHz, 1GB flash, Linux
Touch screen, Wind-up power,
Rugged, Flexible, Wi-Fi mesh
Source: http://laptop.media.mit.edu/
Source: Jim Brazell, Millennials study, 2005

49. BIG Broadband
For National Security
Wireless: “The spectrum that allows for wireless technology is a limited resource
… and a wise use of that spectrum is to help our economy grow, and help with the
quality of life of our people.” - President George W. Bush, Baltimore, April 2004
• Wi-Fi (802.11) in tens of thousands of hot spots (and entire cities)
802.11n raw speeds approaching 500 Mbps at short distance
• WiMax (802.16) for >60 businesses or 100+ homes (T-1 speed)
Possible extention of advanced (―3G‖) services
• Millimeter Wave (30-300 GHz spectrum) may yield 5Gbps in ~5 years
• But wireless has Security Risks
Eavesdrop, Access, Denial-of-Service, etc.
Broadband over Power Lines: “We need to get broadband to more Americans…
One great opportunity is to spread broadband throughout America via our power
lines.” - President George W. Bush, Albuquerque, US Department of Commerce, June 2004
• FCC has adopted BPL rules
• Utilities, hotel operators and others are moving beyond trials
• But wireless has Security Risks
Eavesdrop, Access, Denial-of-Service, etc.
CONSULTING

50. Big Broadband
For National Security
… CONTINUED
 Remember Pearl Harbor
We were blind-sided because we couldn’t monitor encrypted signals.
Things improved when:
1. We captured a Japanese black box and were able to decrypt transmissions.
2. We started using the spoken Navajo Indian language so they couldn’t
monitor our transmissions.
 The US is Falling Behind in Fiber Deployment
With short-term vision, we focus more on Wireless & Powerline as alternatives
while much of Asia deploys fiber.
 Fiber networks are More Difficult to Monitor (spy on)
No Electromagnetic Radiation, so requires Physical Connection
 Fiber networks support Grid Computing
Can apply grid to solving social problems (biomed, global warming) … OR
Can apply grid for military use (decrypt enemy transmissions)

51. TOPICS:
• Alternative Futures
• The Case for BIG Broadband
• Addressing Social Issues
• FTTH Technical Tutorial
• Fiber as Public Infrastructure
• Residential Gateways
by Wayne Caswell
© CAZITech Consulting, 2006

52. Technical Tutorial
Why Fiber-to-the-Home?
 Fiber versus Copper (DSL or Cable)
 FTTH extends Fiber DEEPER (all the way)
 Enormous information carrying Capacity
 Relatively Easy to Install & Upgrade
 Reduced Operations & Maintenance Costs
 Allows fully Symmetric services
 Other Benefits of optical fiber:
– Very long distances
– Strong, flexible, and reliable
– Allows small diameter and light weight cables
– Secure
– Immune to electromagnetic interference (EMI)

53. Technical Tutorial
Fiber versus Copper (DSL or Cable)
//
Glass Fiber Copper
 Uses light  Uses electricity
 Transparent  Opaque
 Nonconductive Dielectric  Electrically Conductive
Material Material
– EMI immune (secure) – Susceptible to EMI
 Low thermal expansion  High thermal expansion
 Brittle, rigid material  Ductile material
 Chemically stable  Subject to corrosion and
galvanic reactions
 Fortunately, its recyclable