Investment, Competition and Regulation in the Recession

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International Institute of Communications

Martin Cave of the Warwick Business School discusses how policymakers in communications should react in the credit crunch as broadband infrastructure projects require investment

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International Institute of Communications Telecoms and Media Forum Brussels, March 25 2009 ‘ Investment, Competition and Regulation in the Recession ’ Martin Cave Warwick Business School, UK [email_address] mec1730 mec1730

IMF Output Growth Forecasts (%) 2009 2010 World US Euro Zone Japan UK -1.0 to -0.5 -2.6 -3.2 -5.8 -3.8 1.5to 2.5 +0.2 +0.1 -0.2 -0.2

Long-term Effects for UK GNP 2000 2008 2016 Long term loss of productive potential accompanied by a permanent increase in the cost of capital

The key development: investment in NGAs? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Who wants NGAs? Past trends show demand for speed increasing 10-fold every 5 years- ie to 50 Mbps in 2013 Applications include: Web 2.0 in-home wireless distribution systems streaming applications with low error rate and symmetry HD content, including internet TV How urgent are these needs?

What regulators should do depends on the competitive environment: three variants ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

What Triggers NGA Investment in Different Competitive Environments? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Flexing regulation in competitive areas ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Areas without effective competition: regulatory options ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Why pricing flexibility may be needed Price discrimination increases revenue

Plan B: Government Money ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Encouraging Mobile Investment ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Should the recession encourage network sharing? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

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Investment, Competition and Regulation in the Recession

1. International Institute of Communications Telecoms and Media Forum Brussels, March 25 2009 ‘ Investment, Competition and Regulation in the Recession ’ Martin Cave Warwick Business School, UK [email_address] mec1730 mec1730

2. IMF Output Growth Forecasts (%) 2009 2010 World US Euro Zone Japan UK -1.0 to -0.5 -2.6 -3.2 -5.8 -3.8 1.5to 2.5 +0.2 +0.1 -0.2 -0.2

3. Long-term Effects for UK GNP 2000 2008 2016 Long term loss of productive potential accompanied by a permanent increase in the cost of capital

5. Who wants NGAs? Past trends show demand for speed increasing 10-fold every 5 years- ie to 50 Mbps in 2013 Applications include: Web 2.0 in-home wireless distribution systems streaming applications with low error rate and symmetry HD content, including internet TV How urgent are these needs?

10. Why pricing flexibility may be needed Price discrimination increases revenue

11.

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13.

Investment, Competition and Regulation in the Recession

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