Broadband Regulation
                                                                 and the Global Economy

            ...
Agenda


                                                                                        • U.S. broadband stimulus...
American Recovery and Reinvestment Act 2009

• ARRA allocates U.S.$7.2 billion to
  broadband-related projects
• Award of ...
Time Frames, Some Speculative
At present, agencies are reviewing 1,400 submissions

April 8, 2009: FCC NOI on national bro...
Poll 1



     What impact do you believe the
     Broadband Technologies
     Opportunity Program in the U.S.
     will h...
Overview of Rural Broadband

• Rural availability and
  penetration in the U.S.
  traditionally is lower
  than urban/subu...
Rural Technology Options
• Consumption of bandwidth has
  been increasing at double-digit
  rates in most markets for the
...
Mapping Out the Money Flow
• Likely bias toward grants given tight time frames?
• We expect multiple small grants sub-$100...
Positioning to Win Broadband Stimulus Dollars

• While we await clarification of multiple terms and the release of NOFA’s,...
Winners and Losers in the Money Flow

Vendor Winners                                                                      ...
Global Economic Stimulus and Broadband
• Global stimulus dollars add up to trillions and are growing
• Broadband is receiv...
Billions of Dollars on the Table for Broadband Globally




 Funding sources go beyond stimulus plans and show a ramping g...
Broadband Stimulus Dollars in Selected Nations
Country                                Funding Amount (U.S.$)              ...
Recommendations
Opportunities are short term and targeted
• Vendors and operators must immediately mobilize to identify fu...
Poll 2



     Will the stimulus packages
     around the world have a positive
     effect on overall connectivity?




©...
Additional Resources

• Yankee Group Research Reports:
       • Vendor Winners and Losers in the ARRA by Vince Vittore
   ...
Thank you!
                                      • Dianne Northfield, Director, dnorthfield@yankeegroup.com

             ...
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in …5
×

Broadband Regulation and the Global Economy

2,024 views

Published on

The broadband industry is receiving growing attention globally as governments recognize the key role broadband plays in economy-wide recovery. The emerging Anywhere Network™ –a powerful, pervasive digital network that can connect all people, at any time, in any place–presents an opportunity to create more jobs, increase productivity across a country's workforce and develop new solutions for health care, education, transportation and energy.

In the U.S., three key agencies are still sorting out how to allocate the broadband funds, and to whom, and many details remain unclear. Despite this flux, companies who seek to capitalize on the energy around broadband must understand the current state of thinking and the likely direction, nature and size of project funds being distributed throughout the world.

Published in: Technology, Business
0 Comments
1 Like
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

No Downloads
Views
Total views
2,024
On SlideShare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
52
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
85
Comments
0
Likes
1
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide

Broadband Regulation and the Global Economy

  1. 1. Broadband Regulation and the Global Economy Dianne Northfield, Director Vince Vittore, Principal Analyst April 28, 2009 www.yankeegroup.com © Copyright 2009. Yankee Group Research, Inc. All rights reserved.
  2. 2. Agenda • U.S. broadband stimulus status • Overview of rural broadband • Usage, adoption and technology choices • Mapping out the money flow • Broadband, technology and infrastructure funding opportunities • Global stimulus opportunities • Q&A © Copyright 2009. Yankee Group Research, Inc. All rights reserved. Broadband Regulation and the Global April 28, 2009 Page 2 Economy
  3. 3. American Recovery and Reinvestment Act 2009 • ARRA allocates U.S.$7.2 billion to broadband-related projects • Award of funds should be prioritized for rural projects and those that would otherwise not be commercially attractive for private operators • The legislation is technology neutral • There are significant funds available in related sectors, e.g., health IT, transportation, energy, electricity • Priority #1 of ARRA: to preserve and create jobs and promote economic recovery © Copyright 2009. Yankee Group Research, Inc. All rights reserved. Broadband Regulation and the Global April 28, 2009 Page 3 Economy
  4. 4. Time Frames, Some Speculative At present, agencies are reviewing 1,400 submissions April 8, 2009: FCC NOI on national broadband policy April 13, 2009: Comments period closes on FCC Prospective Timing definitional work for NTIA of Fund Release May 22, 2009: FCC reports to Congress on rural •Phase I: broadband policy September 2009 June 12, 2009: Agencies issue proposed rules and Notices of Funds Availability (NOFAs) •Phase II : June/July: Project applications December 2009 July/August: Agencies rank applications •Phase III: February 2010: FCC reports to Congress on national Spring 2010 broadband policy • NTIA must report to Congress within 90 days of ARRA (May 17) • Agencies must report to Congress quarterly — Fund recipients will also have to report to agencies quarterly February 2011: NTIA public national broadband map © Copyright 2009. Yankee Group Research, Inc. All rights reserved. Broadband Regulation and the Global April 28, 2009 Page 4 Economy
  5. 5. Poll 1 What impact do you believe the Broadband Technologies Opportunity Program in the U.S. will have on your company? © Copyright 2009. Yankee Group Research, Inc. All rights reserved. Broadband Regulation and the Global April 28, 2009 Page 5 Economy
  6. 6. Overview of Rural Broadband • Rural availability and penetration in the U.S. traditionally is lower than urban/suburban markets • Rural markets are NOT all the same and show great variation based on the incumbent service providers Source: Yankee Group Anywhere Consumer: 2008 U.S. Penetration and Usage Survey • Municipal models are making a comeback as more local governments begin to view the availability of high-bandwidth networks as an economic development issue • Open access models have not succeeded in the U.S. but are getting a second look due to some spot success in Europe © Copyright 2009. Yankee Group Research, Inc. All rights reserved. Broadband Regulation and the Global April 28, 2009 Page 6 Economy
  7. 7. Rural Technology Options • Consumption of bandwidth has been increasing at double-digit rates in most markets for the past several years and is likely to continue for the foreseeable future • Wireline, specifically FTTP, is the best long-term solution, but the business model around rural deployments is difficult at best • Wireless options represent the best alternative for near-term Source: Akamai, The State of the Internet, Q4 solution, but could run into 2008 capacity issues in several scenarios © Copyright 2009. Yankee Group Research, Inc. All rights reserved. Broadband Regulation and the Global April 28, 2009 Page 7 Economy
  8. 8. Mapping Out the Money Flow • Likely bias toward grants given tight time frames? • We expect multiple small grants sub-$100 million • Recipients of RUS funding prioritized—RLECs historically • ARRA bias to prioritize public entities and public-private partnerships • Potential bias toward community partnerships and municipalities • Wholesale business models favored under some of the Act’s priorities • Credibility in projects that take the NTIA’s 20 percent financial risk • Both RUS and NTIA guidelines support projects providing “service to the greatest population” • Applicants must show that projects would not proceed without federal funding © Copyright 2009. Yankee Group Research, Inc. All rights reserved. Broadband Regulation and the Global April 28, 2009 Page 8 Economy
  9. 9. Positioning to Win Broadband Stimulus Dollars • While we await clarification of multiple terms and the release of NOFA’s, projects that match to the objectives and priorities laid out in ARRA will win more points • The RUS and NTIA objectives, priorities and gating criteria are different • Applicants will need to consider trade-offs as some of these priorities are competing or in conflict • RUS offers grants, loans and loan guarantees; NTIA offers grants only • Projects targeted to unserved, underserved and rural areas and anchor institutions will win more points • Projects that can demonstrate that they are ready to go and that have hard completion dates will be favored • Projects must show proven benefits to the economy or society or both, and demonstrate value for money, viability and sustainability © Copyright 2009. Yankee Group Research, Inc. All rights reserved. Broadband Regulation and the Global April 28, 2009 Page 9 Economy
  10. 10. Winners and Losers in the Money Flow Vendor Winners Vendor Losers Access/aggregation level vendors Vendors not on the RUS approved already on the RUS approved list list of materials won’t benefit from of materials early release of RUS funds Vendors able to guide applicants No clear path to revenue for billing/OSS vendors Wireless infrastructure/municipal Wi-Fi vendors Wild Cards for Vendors Interpretation of the Buy American clause? Potential joint ventures with service providers? Preference for projects allowing for “multiple service providers” © Copyright 2009. Yankee Group Research, Inc. All rights reserved. Broadband Regulation and the Global April 28, 2009 Page 10 Economy
  11. 11. Global Economic Stimulus and Broadband • Global stimulus dollars add up to trillions and are growing • Broadband is receiving growing attention globally as governments recognize a key role for high-speed connectivity in economy-wide recovery • There are billions of dollars on the table for broadband projects, many of which are focused on expanded or upgraded access in rural areas • There are billions more in opportunities for the broadband industry in fiscal packages targeting related sectors with a focus on technology and IT investments • Infrastructure spending is at the core of many national stimulus packages • Funding opportunities are typically “technology neutral,” meaning that all players in the electronic communications ecosystem have opportunities © Copyright 2009. Yankee Group Research, Inc. All rights reserved. Broadband Regulation and the Global April 28, 2009 Page 11 Economy
  12. 12. Billions of Dollars on the Table for Broadband Globally Funding sources go beyond stimulus plans and show a ramping government commitment to broadband development as part of wider economic recovery © Copyright 2009. Yankee Group Research, Inc. All rights reserved. Broadband Regulation and the Global April 28, 2009 Page 12 Economy
  13. 13. Broadband Stimulus Dollars in Selected Nations Country Funding Amount (U.S.$) Source of Funds Comments United States 7.2 billion Economic stimulus Grants and loan programs Germany 227 million Economic stimulus National broadband policy commitment Ireland 326 million Government, EU and private Underserviced area co-financing infrastructure Canada 183 million over 3 years 2009 budget Deployment in underserved areas European Commission 1.3 billion Economic stimulus Subsidies for distribution to EU Member States Portugal 1 billion Economic stimulus credit line FTTH South Korea 938 million over 5 years Government Advanced networks Finland 102 million Government FTTx Australia 30 billion over 8 years Government National broadband network Greece 900 million Government FTTx Singapore 700 million Government National broadband network Malaysia 2.2 billion Government, economic National broadband network stimulus Broadband infrastructure Chile 54 million Government Rural connectivity © Copyright 2009. Yankee Group Research, Inc. All rights reserved. Broadband Regulation and the Global April 28, 2009 Page 13 Economy
  14. 14. Recommendations Opportunities are short term and targeted • Vendors and operators must immediately mobilize to identify funding and incentive targets—broadband and cross-sector. These differ by nation and require detailed investigation and navigation. • Critical make-or-break decisions will revolve around: The specification of entities eligible to seek funds • Project obligations • Open access conditions • Co-financing requirements • Project amenability to partnering opportunities • Fund gating criteria • • Maximize project proposals matched to government program objectives. • Look to leverage and replicate successful projects. • Think of short-term stimulus opportunities and longer-term positioning as governments reshape national broadband policies and funding mechanisms. © Copyright 2009. Yankee Group Research, Inc. All rights reserved. Broadband Regulation and the Global April 28, 2009 Page 14 Economy
  15. 15. Poll 2 Will the stimulus packages around the world have a positive effect on overall connectivity? © Copyright 2009. Yankee Group Research, Inc. All rights reserved. Broadband Regulation and the Global April 28, 2009 Page 15 Economy
  16. 16. Additional Resources • Yankee Group Research Reports: • Vendor Winners and Losers in the ARRA by Vince Vittore • Broadband and Economic Recovery in the United States by Dianne Northfield • Memo to President Obama: We Need Anywhere for America by Carl Howe, Jennifer Pigg and Emily Green • Reaping the Benefits of Broadband Stimulus Billions forthcoming by Dianne Northfield Download at: http://www.yankeegroup.com • Yankee Group blog: • Hard Times Bring Inspiration for Broadband in the U.S. by Dianne Northfield • Unintended Consequences of the Stimulus by Vince Vittore Read at http://blogs.yankeegroup.com • Yankee Group podcast: Stimulus Opportunities for Broadband • Vince Vittore discusses the U.S. stimulus provisions Listen at: http://blogs.yankeegroup.com/2009/03/19/podcast-stimulus-opportunities-for-broadband/ © Copyright 2009. Yankee Group Research, Inc. All rights reserved. Broadband Regulation and the Global April 28, 2009 Page 16 Economy
  17. 17. Thank you! • Dianne Northfield, Director, dnorthfield@yankeegroup.com • Vince Vittore, Principal Analyst, vvittore@yankeegroup.com • Upcoming webinars: • The Workforce of Tomorrow, May 27, 2009 • Fiber to the Home: Making That Business Model Work, June 30, 2009 © Copyright 2009. Yankee Group Research, Inc. All rights reserved. Broadband Regulation and the Global April 28, 2009 Page 17 Economy

×