Estimation &
Release Planning

Why did you
make this deck?

To avoid...

Disappointed
Customers

Reduced
Margins

Unnecessary
Stress

Estimation Release Planning

Estimation

An Informed
Guess

We want to know...

Size

Speed

Uncertainty

Cost

Schedule

Requirements Estimation

What makes a
good story?

INVEST

Independent

Negotiable

Valuable

Estimable

Small

Testable

Non Functional Requirements

Requirements Variation

Complexity

Volatility

Completeness

To recap

Requirements Variation

Requirements Variation

Requirements Variation

Requirements Variation

Remember...

Take Notes

Quantifying Risk

Complexity
Simple (1)
Volatility
Standard (2)
Completeness
Complex (3)

Complexity
Volatility
Low (1)
Completeness
Medium (2)
High (3)

Complexity
Volatility
Completeness
Complete (1)
Incomplete (2)
Unknown (3)

Calculate
Risk

Story Size

A mile is a mile...

regardless of
who’s running

Story Points .
. .

3 estimates

Minimum

Likely

Maximum

Yet again...

Take Notes

Take Lots of Notes!

Use the Likely Estimate...

for Planning & Tracking...

T-shirt
sizing

Team Estimation

For each story...

For each story...
X 3

.IN? ;FF ;MMOGJNCIHM h >CM=OMMCIHo

2?@;=NILCHAg 4$$g
.IH 1! 4;MEMg
!ONIG;NCIHg
.IH &OH=NCIH;F
2?KOCL?G?HNMg
&L;G?QILEMg
#IGGIH;FCNSg
$?P 4;MEMg

Now what are
we estimating?

Assumptions?

Agree your
constraints

Determining
initial velocity

Remember....

Don’t forget the
notes!

Estimation Release Planning

Release
Planning

Get Raw Scope

Get Raw Scope

Get Raw
Get Raw Scope
Velocity

Get Raw
Get Raw Scope
Velocity

Get Raw Adjust for
Get Raw Scope
Velocity Variation

Get Raw Adjust for
Get Raw Scope
Velocity Variation

Get Raw Adjust for
Get Raw Scope
Velocity Variation
Build dev
capacity plan

Get Raw Adjust for
Get Raw Scope
Velocity Variation
Build dev
capacity plan

Get Raw Adjust for
Get Raw Scope
Velocity Variation
Adjust for Build dev
Velocity change capacity plan

Get Raw Adjust for
Get Raw Scope
Velocity Variation
Adjust for Build dev
Velocity change capacity plan

Get Raw Adjust for
Get Raw Scope
Velocity Variation
Determine no Adjust for Build dev
of iterations Velocity change capacity plan

Get Raw Adjust for
Get Raw Scope
Velocity Variation
Determine no Adjust for Build dev
of iterations Velocity change capacity plan

Get Raw Adjust for
Get Raw Scope
Velocity Variation
Determine no Adjust for Build dev
of iterations Velocity change capacity plan
Prepare
Timeline

Get Raw Adjust for
Get Raw Scope
Velocity Variation
Determine no Adjust for Build dev
of iterations Velocity change capacity plan
Prepare
Timeline

Get Raw Adjust for
Get Raw Scope
Velocity Variation
Determine no Adjust for Build dev
of iterations Velocity change capacity plan
Prepare Finalize
Timeline Resource Plan

Get Raw Adjust for
Get Raw Scope
Velocity Variation
Determine no Adjust for Build dev
of iterations Velocity change capacity plan
Prepare Finalize
Timeline Resource Plan

Get Raw Adjust for
Get Raw Scope
Velocity Variation
Determine no Adjust for Build dev
of iterations Velocity change capacity plan
Prepare Finalize
Timeline Resource Plan Publish!!

Adjust for Scope Variation

Project Risk Profile

Fixed Price
Commercial Risk
(CAB?MN 2CME
Materials
Time &
,IQ?MN 2CME
Inception RFP Response
Uncertainty

Build a Dev Capacity Plan

Identify....

available dev pair days...

Consider...

3C=EH?MMg
$CMNLC<ON?>g
2;GJOJg ,?P?L;A?>g
#IGJ;HS %P?HNg
(IFC>;SMg
4L;CHCHAg
/@@MBIL?g
6;=;NCIHg
#IrMIOL=?>g -;R 3CT?g
,I=;NCIH -IP?g
6?FI=CNS .??>Mg
4?=B ,?;>Mg

Adjust for Velocity
Variation

Number of Iterations

Prepare Timeline

Initiation
•Iteration 0 deprecated
•Size & resource this
carefully/ appropriately!

Testing
•System Integration/
UAT/ OAT, Usability...
•Phased? Incremental?

Deployment
Test environments,
testing, rehearsals, data
conversion, training....

Finalize Resource Plan

Release Plan
Contingency
200
150
100
50
0
I 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Likely Scope Maximum Scope Cumulative Velocity

What happens next?

The Start

Things C hne
a g

If we manage change
well...

Clients are happy!

Your margins are
intact!

Sustainable Pace, a
Successful project...

and a happy team

Questions?

Thank You