A N Sinha Institute of Social Science (ANSISS), and the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) organized a one day consulation on ‘A Food Secure Bihar: Challenges and Way Forward’ on August 06, 2014 at ANSISS, Patna, Bihar. You are aware that National Food Security Act (NFSA) has been enacted with a view to ensure food security in India and Bihar is one of the state where ensuring food security is a major challenge. A better understanding of NFSA in the context of Bihar will be helpful for effective implementation of the NFSA. The main objective of the policy consultative workshop is to deliberate on the options and strategies for making NFSA efficient and effective in Bihar

1. Food demand and supply in Bihar: Is the existing growth sufficient?
Praduman Kumar
Indian Agricultural Research Institute, New Delhi
pkumariari@gmail.com
Consultation Workshop
A Food Secure Bihar: Challenges and Way Forward
August 06, 2014
ANSISS, Patna, Bihar

2. Challenges towards food secure Bihar
Extremely high and growing population pressure
High dependence on agriculture
Predominance of small and marginal farmers and increasing land fragmentation
Lacking in technology, information, knowledge and innovation

3. Bihar rich in natural resources, yet food deficit state due to low productivity and huge yield gap.
Numerous biotic and abiotic constraints.
Flood and drought prone constraints.
Weak institutions
Poor infrastructure:Poor road network, thin markets, fragile electricity sector and inefficient irrigation system.

4. Outlines
Long-term changes in dietary pattern
Food demand
Food production (Supply)
Self-sufficiency
Way forward food secure Bihar

5. Data
House hold consumption expenditure data collected by National Sample Survey Organization (NSSO)
NSS Rounds:
•38 (1983)
•43 (1987-88)
•50 (1993-94)
•55 (1999-2000)
•61 (2004)
•68 (2011)

6. Long term changes on food consumption in Bihar(kg/cap/year)
Food
BPL
APL
1993
2011
% change
1993
2011
% change
Rice
70.9
67.9
-4.2
87.8
78.3
-10.8
Wheat
69.3
61.8
-10.8
87.0
74.5
-14.4
Cereals
150.4
130.8
-13.0
179.7
154.2
-14.2
Pulses
5.8
7.4
27.1
12.6
10.7
-14.8
Edible-oils
2.9
4.6
55.8
5.6
7.3
31.6
Vegetables
62.5
55.3
-11.5
95.6
76.6
-19.9
Fruits
2.0
2.8
42.1
7.1
8.6
20.6
Sugar
3.4
3.9
16.0
7.8
7.4
-5.8
Milk
16.0
25.3
58.0
67.7
69.8
3.0
Meat, fish, eggs
1.9
2.2
19.1
3.5
4.4
25.6

7. Long term changes on food consumption in Bihar(kg/cap/year)
Food
Rural
Urban
1993
2011
% change
1993
2011
% change
Rice
80.0
77.2
-3.5
76.1
70.6
-7.1
Wheat
77.7
71.0
-8.6
79.8
70.7
-11.4
Cereals
166.5
149.8
-10.1
157.1
141.8
-9.8
Pulses
8.9
9.8
9.7
10.6
10.0
-5.9
Ed.Oil
4.1
6.4
58.3
5.1
6.9
34.8
Vegetables
78.4
70.3
-10.4
81.3
71.7
-11.8
Fruits
4.1
6.8
68.4
6.8
7.4
9.4
Sugar
5.2
6.3
21.2
7.4
6.7
-9.5
Milk
40.1
57.9
44.3
49.0
55.6
13.5
Meat, fish, eggs
2.6
3.7
46.3
3.2
3.9
21.1

8. Methodology: Food demand Projections
The Food Characteristic Demand System (FCDS) model.
This model is based on demand for energy, variety and tastes for foods for computing demand elasticity.
These demand elasticities are used in projecting the consumption per household for various food items.

9. Assumptions
GNDP will grow at the rate of 7.5% for rural and 5.8% for urban households
The average annual per capita consumption ending 2004 is taken as the base consumption.
Population in million
YearRuralUrban
201187.410.2
201691.910.8
202196.911.5
2026100.312.7

10. dt= d0* (1+y*e)t
The annual consumption of the commodity is predicted as
Where:
dt: annual per capita consumption in year t
d0: annual per capita consumption in base year
y: growth in per capita expenditure/income
e: expenditure elasticity of demand for the commodity

11. Human demand for each food item is arrived by multiplying per capita projected consumption in the year ‘t’ with projected population.
Total domestic demand = Direct Demand (human consumption) + Indirect demand (seed, feed, industrial use, wastage etc.)

12. Indirect demand of food in Bihar
Food commodity
Indirect demand
(% of total demand)
Rice
14.5
Wheat
18.4
Maize
51.6
Pulses
25.9
Edible oil
23.9
Vegetables
34.1
Fruits
78.0
Milk
34.6
Sugar
60.5
Meat, eggs and fish
49.7

13. Rice demand and production in Bihar
Year
Demand
(mt)
Production
(mt)
Deficit/
Surplus
(mt)
Self- sufficiency (%)
2011
9.85
7.16
-2.7
73
2016
10.70
7.37
-3.3
69
2021
11.56
7.58
-4.0
66
2026
12.35
7.79
-4.6
63
Annual growth, %
1.66
0.56

14. Wheat demand and production in Bihar
Year
Demand
(mt)
Production
(mt)
Deficit/
Surplus
(mt)
Self- sufficiency (%)
2011
8.19
4.73
-3.5
58
2016
9.12
4.87
-4.3
53
2021
10.15
5.01
-5.1
49
2026
11.19
5.16
-6.0
46
Annual growth, %
2.17
0.58

15. Maize demand and production in Bihar
Year
Demand
(mt)
Production
(mt)
Deficit/
Surplus
(mt)
Self- sufficiency (%)
2011
1.19
1.84
0.66
156
2016
1.16
1.92
0.76
166
2021
1.11
2.01
0.90
181
2026
1.03
2.10
1.07
203
Annual growth, %
-0.39
0.87

16. Demand and production of Pulses in Bihar
Year
Demand
(mt)
Production
(mt)
Deficit/
Surplus
(mt)
Self- sufficiency (%)
2011
1.113
0.531
-0.583
48
2016
1.310
0.534
-0.776
41
2021
1.563
0.537
-1.025
34
2026
1.860
0.541
-1.319
29
Annual growth, %
3.31
0.12

17. Demand and production of edible oils and seeds in Bihar
Year
Demand (000 t)
Production
(000 t)
Deficit of
Edible- oils
(000 t)
Sel- sufficiency, %
Edible oils
Edible- oils seeds
Edible- oils seeds
Edible- oils
2011
341
1137
140
42.0
-299
12
2016
380
1267
143
43.1
-337
11
2021
431
1438
148
44.2
-387
10
2026
502
1674
151
45.4
-457
9
Annual growth, %
2.18
2.18
0.51
0.51

18. Demand and production of sugar and sugarcane in Bihar
Year
Demand
(million ton)
Production
(million ton)
Deficit of
sugar
(mt)
Sel- sufficiency, %
Sugar
Sugarcane
Sugarcane
Sugar
2011
1.21
13.14
12.26
1.04
-0.07
93
2016
1.25
14.69
13.11
1.11
-0.13
89
2021
1.40
16.45
14.01
1.19
-0.21
85
2026
1.59
18.67
14.98
1.27
-0.31
80
Annual growth, %
2.26
2.26
1.34
1.34

19. Vegetable demand and production in Bihar
Year
Demand
(mt)
Production
(mt)
Deficit/
Surplus
(mt)
Self- sufficiency (%)
2011
12.42
14.69
2.27
118
2016
15.19
16.47
1.27
108
2021
19.03
18.45
-0.58
97
2026
23.99
20.68
-3.31
86
Annual growth, %
4.1
2.3

20. Demand and production of fruits in Bihar
Year
Demand
(mt)
Production
(mt)
Deficit/
Surplus
(mt)
Self- sufficiency (%)
2011
3.69
3.77
0.09
102
2016
4.67
3.98
-0.69
85
2021
6.10
4.20
-1.89
69
2026
7.98
4.44
-3.54
56
Annual growth, %
4.8
1.1

21. Milk demand and production in Bihar
Year
Demand
(mt)
Production
(mt)
Deficit/
Surplus
(mt)
Self- sufficiency (%)
2011
6.28
6.67
0.39
106
2016
8.22
8.82
0.60
107
2021
11.17
11.66
0.49
104
2026
15.33
15.43
0.10
101
Annual growth, %
5.52

22. Demand and production of meat in Bihar
Year
Demand
(000 t)
Production
(000 t)
Deficit/
Surplus
(000 t)
Self- sufficiency (%)
2011
133
288
155
216
2016
204
310
107
152
2021
332
334
2
100
2026
548
360
-188
66
Annual growth, %
9.8
1.5

23. Demand and production of eggs in Bihar
Year
Demand
(000 t)
Production
(000 t)
Deficit/
Surplus
(000 t)
Self- sufficiency (%)
2011
90
59
-31
66
2016
136
76
-61
55
2021
221
96
-125
43
2026
362
122
-240
34
Annual growth, %
9.7
4.9

24. Demand and production of fish in Bihar
Year
Demand
(000 t)
Production
(000 t)
Deficit/
Surplus
(000 t)
Self- sufficiency (%)
2011
611
400
-211
65
2016
938
524
-414
56
2021
1540
687
-853
44
2026
2556
900
-1656
35
Annual growth, %
10.0
5.5

25. Demand and production of meat, fish and eggs in Bihar
Year
Demand
(mt)
Production
(mt)
Deficit/
Surplus
(mt)
Self- sufficiency (%)
2011
0.83
0.75
-0.08
90
2016
1.28
0.91
-0.37
71
2021
2.09
1.12
-0.98
53
2026
3.47
1.38
-2.08
40
Annual growth, %
9.81
4.04

26. Annual growth in demand and production of food in Bihar
Food Demand (%) Production (%) Rice 1.66 0.56 Wheat 2.17 0.58 Maize -0.39 0.87 Pulses 3.31 0.12 Edible oils 2.18 0.51 Sugar 2.26 1.34 Vegetables 4.11 2.30 Fruits 4.84 1.08 Milk 5.52 5.75 Meat, Fish & Eggs 9.81 4.04 1.72

27. Food security mission
Year
Bihar
India
% share of Bihar
Number of poor households in Bihar (Million)
2011
5.8
55.8
10.39
2016
6.2
59.2
10.47
Demand of cereals by poor households in 2016
Rice
2.96
22.84
12.9
Wheat
2.14
16.70
13.0
Both
5.10
39.54
12.9
Monthly demand by poor households (kg/month/household)
Rice 39.1 31.6
Wheat 28.3 22.6
Both cereals 67.4 54.3

28. Way forward food secure Bihar
Bridging yield gaps and improve TFP
Integrated nutrient management and
sustainable use of water
Agricultural diversification and value additionwith emphasison horticultural, livestock and fisheries
Strengthen institutions and improve basic infrastructure like road network, power and agro-processing and markets .
Link farmers with remunerative markets

29. ADMINISTRATOR
•Awareness
•Local wisdom
•Peoples’ participation
•SMALL FARMERS
FARMER
SCIENTIST
Establish Active Interfaces : Bridge research and policy gaps
PRIORITY AREAS
SKILL DEVELOPMENT
NATURALRESOURCES
DIVERSIFICATION
POST HARVEST ANDVALUE ADDITION
TFP
MARKET VALUE CHAIN
Link farmers with remunerative market
Higher investment on R&D
ICT
Irrigation
Power
Rural Road