Food demand and supply in Bihar: Is the existing growth sufficient? 
Praduman Kumar 
Indian Agricultural Research Institut...
Challenges towards food secure Bihar 
Extremely high and growing population pressure 
High dependence on agriculture 
P...
Bihar rich in natural resources, yet food deficit state due to low productivity and huge yield gap. 
Numerous biotic and...
Outlines 
Long-term changes in dietary pattern 
Food demand 
Food production (Supply) 
Self-sufficiency 
Way forward ...
Data 
House hold consumption expenditure data collected by National Sample Survey Organization (NSSO) 
NSS Rounds: 
•38 ...
Long term changes on food consumption in Bihar(kg/cap/year) 
Food 
BPL 
APL 
1993 
2011 
% change 
1993 
2011 
% change 
R...
Long term changes on food consumption in Bihar(kg/cap/year) 
Food 
Rural 
Urban 
1993 
2011 
% change 
1993 
2011 
% chang...
Methodology: Food demand Projections 
The Food Characteristic Demand System (FCDS) model. 
This model is based on demand...
Assumptions 
GNDP will grow at the rate of 7.5% for rural and 5.8% for urban households 
The average annual per capita c...
dt= d0* (1+y*e)t 
The annual consumption of the commodity is predicted as 
Where: 
dt: annual per capita consumption in ye...
Human demand for each food item is arrived by multiplying per capita projected consumption in the year ‘t’ with projected...
Indirect demand of food in Bihar 
Food commodity 
Indirect demand 
(% of total demand) 
Rice 
14.5 
Wheat 
18.4 
Maize 
51...
Rice demand and production in Bihar 
Year 
Demand 
(mt) 
Production 
(mt) 
Deficit/ 
Surplus 
(mt) 
Self- sufficiency (%) ...
Wheat demand and production in Bihar 
Year 
Demand 
(mt) 
Production 
(mt) 
Deficit/ 
Surplus 
(mt) 
Self- sufficiency (%)...
Maize demand and production in Bihar 
Year 
Demand 
(mt) 
Production 
(mt) 
Deficit/ 
Surplus 
(mt) 
Self- sufficiency (%)...
Demand and production of Pulses in Bihar 
Year 
Demand 
(mt) 
Production 
(mt) 
Deficit/ 
Surplus 
(mt) 
Self- sufficiency...
Demand and production of edible oils and seeds in Bihar 
Year 
Demand (000 t) 
Production 
(000 t) 
Deficit of 
Edible- oi...
Demand and production of sugar and sugarcane in Bihar 
Year 
Demand 
(million ton) 
Production 
(million ton) 
Deficit of ...
Vegetable demand and production in Bihar 
Year 
Demand 
(mt) 
Production 
(mt) 
Deficit/ 
Surplus 
(mt) 
Self- sufficiency...
Demand and production of fruits in Bihar 
Year 
Demand 
(mt) 
Production 
(mt) 
Deficit/ 
Surplus 
(mt) 
Self- sufficiency...
Milk demand and production in Bihar 
Year 
Demand 
(mt) 
Production 
(mt) 
Deficit/ 
Surplus 
(mt) 
Self- sufficiency (%) ...
Demand and production of meat in Bihar 
Year 
Demand 
(000 t) 
Production 
(000 t) 
Deficit/ 
Surplus 
(000 t) 
Self- suff...
Demand and production of eggs in Bihar 
Year 
Demand 
(000 t) 
Production 
(000 t) 
Deficit/ 
Surplus 
(000 t) 
Self- suff...
Demand and production of fish in Bihar 
Year 
Demand 
(000 t) 
Production 
(000 t) 
Deficit/ 
Surplus 
(000 t) 
Self- suff...
Demand and production of meat, fish and eggs in Bihar 
Year 
Demand 
(mt) 
Production 
(mt) 
Deficit/ 
Surplus 
(mt) 
Self...
Annual growth in demand and production of food in Bihar 
Food Demand (%) Production (%) Rice 1.66 0.56 Wheat 2.17 0.58 Mai...
Food security mission 
Year 
Bihar 
India 
% share of Bihar 
Number of poor households in Bihar (Million) 
2011 
5.8 
55.8...
Way forward food secure Bihar 
Bridging yield gaps and improve TFP 
Integrated nutrient management and 
sustainable use ...
ADMINISTRATOR 
•Awareness 
•Local wisdom 
•Peoples’ participation 
•SMALL FARMERS 
FARMER 
SCIENTIST 
Establish Active Int...
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IFPRI- Food Demand and Supply in Bihar, P Kumar, IFPRI

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A N Sinha Institute of Social Science (ANSISS), and the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) organized a one day consulation on
‘A Food Secure Bihar: Challenges and Way Forward’ on August 06, 2014 at ANSISS, Patna, Bihar.
You are aware that National Food Security Act (NFSA) has been enacted with a view to ensure food security in India and Bihar is one of the state where ensuring food security is a major challenge. A better understanding of NFSA in the context of Bihar will be helpful for effective implementation of the NFSA. The main objective of the policy consultative workshop is to deliberate on the options and strategies for making NFSA efficient and effective in Bihar

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IFPRI- Food Demand and Supply in Bihar, P Kumar, IFPRI

  1. 1. Food demand and supply in Bihar: Is the existing growth sufficient? Praduman Kumar Indian Agricultural Research Institute, New Delhi pkumariari@gmail.com Consultation Workshop A Food Secure Bihar: Challenges and Way Forward August 06, 2014 ANSISS, Patna, Bihar
  2. 2. Challenges towards food secure Bihar Extremely high and growing population pressure High dependence on agriculture Predominance of small and marginal farmers and increasing land fragmentation Lacking in technology, information, knowledge and innovation
  3. 3. Bihar rich in natural resources, yet food deficit state due to low productivity and huge yield gap. Numerous biotic and abiotic constraints. Flood and drought prone constraints. Weak institutions Poor infrastructure:Poor road network, thin markets, fragile electricity sector and inefficient irrigation system.
  4. 4. Outlines Long-term changes in dietary pattern Food demand Food production (Supply) Self-sufficiency Way forward food secure Bihar
  5. 5. Data House hold consumption expenditure data collected by National Sample Survey Organization (NSSO) NSS Rounds: •38 (1983) •43 (1987-88) •50 (1993-94) •55 (1999-2000) •61 (2004) •68 (2011)
  6. 6. Long term changes on food consumption in Bihar(kg/cap/year) Food BPL APL 1993 2011 % change 1993 2011 % change Rice 70.9 67.9 -4.2 87.8 78.3 -10.8 Wheat 69.3 61.8 -10.8 87.0 74.5 -14.4 Cereals 150.4 130.8 -13.0 179.7 154.2 -14.2 Pulses 5.8 7.4 27.1 12.6 10.7 -14.8 Edible-oils 2.9 4.6 55.8 5.6 7.3 31.6 Vegetables 62.5 55.3 -11.5 95.6 76.6 -19.9 Fruits 2.0 2.8 42.1 7.1 8.6 20.6 Sugar 3.4 3.9 16.0 7.8 7.4 -5.8 Milk 16.0 25.3 58.0 67.7 69.8 3.0 Meat, fish, eggs 1.9 2.2 19.1 3.5 4.4 25.6
  7. 7. Long term changes on food consumption in Bihar(kg/cap/year) Food Rural Urban 1993 2011 % change 1993 2011 % change Rice 80.0 77.2 -3.5 76.1 70.6 -7.1 Wheat 77.7 71.0 -8.6 79.8 70.7 -11.4 Cereals 166.5 149.8 -10.1 157.1 141.8 -9.8 Pulses 8.9 9.8 9.7 10.6 10.0 -5.9 Ed.Oil 4.1 6.4 58.3 5.1 6.9 34.8 Vegetables 78.4 70.3 -10.4 81.3 71.7 -11.8 Fruits 4.1 6.8 68.4 6.8 7.4 9.4 Sugar 5.2 6.3 21.2 7.4 6.7 -9.5 Milk 40.1 57.9 44.3 49.0 55.6 13.5 Meat, fish, eggs 2.6 3.7 46.3 3.2 3.9 21.1
  8. 8. Methodology: Food demand Projections The Food Characteristic Demand System (FCDS) model. This model is based on demand for energy, variety and tastes for foods for computing demand elasticity. These demand elasticities are used in projecting the consumption per household for various food items.
  9. 9. Assumptions GNDP will grow at the rate of 7.5% for rural and 5.8% for urban households The average annual per capita consumption ending 2004 is taken as the base consumption. Population in million YearRuralUrban 201187.410.2 201691.910.8 202196.911.5 2026100.312.7
  10. 10. dt= d0* (1+y*e)t The annual consumption of the commodity is predicted as Where: dt: annual per capita consumption in year t d0: annual per capita consumption in base year y: growth in per capita expenditure/income e: expenditure elasticity of demand for the commodity
  11. 11. Human demand for each food item is arrived by multiplying per capita projected consumption in the year ‘t’ with projected population. Total domestic demand = Direct Demand (human consumption) + Indirect demand (seed, feed, industrial use, wastage etc.)
  12. 12. Indirect demand of food in Bihar Food commodity Indirect demand (% of total demand) Rice 14.5 Wheat 18.4 Maize 51.6 Pulses 25.9 Edible oil 23.9 Vegetables 34.1 Fruits 78.0 Milk 34.6 Sugar 60.5 Meat, eggs and fish 49.7
  13. 13. Rice demand and production in Bihar Year Demand (mt) Production (mt) Deficit/ Surplus (mt) Self- sufficiency (%) 2011 9.85 7.16 -2.7 73 2016 10.70 7.37 -3.3 69 2021 11.56 7.58 -4.0 66 2026 12.35 7.79 -4.6 63 Annual growth, % 1.66 0.56
  14. 14. Wheat demand and production in Bihar Year Demand (mt) Production (mt) Deficit/ Surplus (mt) Self- sufficiency (%) 2011 8.19 4.73 -3.5 58 2016 9.12 4.87 -4.3 53 2021 10.15 5.01 -5.1 49 2026 11.19 5.16 -6.0 46 Annual growth, % 2.17 0.58
  15. 15. Maize demand and production in Bihar Year Demand (mt) Production (mt) Deficit/ Surplus (mt) Self- sufficiency (%) 2011 1.19 1.84 0.66 156 2016 1.16 1.92 0.76 166 2021 1.11 2.01 0.90 181 2026 1.03 2.10 1.07 203 Annual growth, % -0.39 0.87
  16. 16. Demand and production of Pulses in Bihar Year Demand (mt) Production (mt) Deficit/ Surplus (mt) Self- sufficiency (%) 2011 1.113 0.531 -0.583 48 2016 1.310 0.534 -0.776 41 2021 1.563 0.537 -1.025 34 2026 1.860 0.541 -1.319 29 Annual growth, % 3.31 0.12
  17. 17. Demand and production of edible oils and seeds in Bihar Year Demand (000 t) Production (000 t) Deficit of Edible- oils (000 t) Sel- sufficiency, % Edible oils Edible- oils seeds Edible- oils seeds Edible- oils 2011 341 1137 140 42.0 -299 12 2016 380 1267 143 43.1 -337 11 2021 431 1438 148 44.2 -387 10 2026 502 1674 151 45.4 -457 9 Annual growth, % 2.18 2.18 0.51 0.51
  18. 18. Demand and production of sugar and sugarcane in Bihar Year Demand (million ton) Production (million ton) Deficit of sugar (mt) Sel- sufficiency, % Sugar Sugarcane Sugarcane Sugar 2011 1.21 13.14 12.26 1.04 -0.07 93 2016 1.25 14.69 13.11 1.11 -0.13 89 2021 1.40 16.45 14.01 1.19 -0.21 85 2026 1.59 18.67 14.98 1.27 -0.31 80 Annual growth, % 2.26 2.26 1.34 1.34
  19. 19. Vegetable demand and production in Bihar Year Demand (mt) Production (mt) Deficit/ Surplus (mt) Self- sufficiency (%) 2011 12.42 14.69 2.27 118 2016 15.19 16.47 1.27 108 2021 19.03 18.45 -0.58 97 2026 23.99 20.68 -3.31 86 Annual growth, % 4.1 2.3
  20. 20. Demand and production of fruits in Bihar Year Demand (mt) Production (mt) Deficit/ Surplus (mt) Self- sufficiency (%) 2011 3.69 3.77 0.09 102 2016 4.67 3.98 -0.69 85 2021 6.10 4.20 -1.89 69 2026 7.98 4.44 -3.54 56 Annual growth, % 4.8 1.1
  21. 21. Milk demand and production in Bihar Year Demand (mt) Production (mt) Deficit/ Surplus (mt) Self- sufficiency (%) 2011 6.28 6.67 0.39 106 2016 8.22 8.82 0.60 107 2021 11.17 11.66 0.49 104 2026 15.33 15.43 0.10 101 Annual growth, % 5.52
  22. 22. Demand and production of meat in Bihar Year Demand (000 t) Production (000 t) Deficit/ Surplus (000 t) Self- sufficiency (%) 2011 133 288 155 216 2016 204 310 107 152 2021 332 334 2 100 2026 548 360 -188 66 Annual growth, % 9.8 1.5
  23. 23. Demand and production of eggs in Bihar Year Demand (000 t) Production (000 t) Deficit/ Surplus (000 t) Self- sufficiency (%) 2011 90 59 -31 66 2016 136 76 -61 55 2021 221 96 -125 43 2026 362 122 -240 34 Annual growth, % 9.7 4.9
  24. 24. Demand and production of fish in Bihar Year Demand (000 t) Production (000 t) Deficit/ Surplus (000 t) Self- sufficiency (%) 2011 611 400 -211 65 2016 938 524 -414 56 2021 1540 687 -853 44 2026 2556 900 -1656 35 Annual growth, % 10.0 5.5
  25. 25. Demand and production of meat, fish and eggs in Bihar Year Demand (mt) Production (mt) Deficit/ Surplus (mt) Self- sufficiency (%) 2011 0.83 0.75 -0.08 90 2016 1.28 0.91 -0.37 71 2021 2.09 1.12 -0.98 53 2026 3.47 1.38 -2.08 40 Annual growth, % 9.81 4.04
  26. 26. Annual growth in demand and production of food in Bihar Food Demand (%) Production (%) Rice 1.66 0.56 Wheat 2.17 0.58 Maize -0.39 0.87 Pulses 3.31 0.12 Edible oils 2.18 0.51 Sugar 2.26 1.34 Vegetables 4.11 2.30 Fruits 4.84 1.08 Milk 5.52 5.75 Meat, Fish & Eggs 9.81 4.04 1.72
  27. 27. Food security mission Year Bihar India % share of Bihar Number of poor households in Bihar (Million) 2011 5.8 55.8 10.39 2016 6.2 59.2 10.47 Demand of cereals by poor households in 2016 Rice 2.96 22.84 12.9 Wheat 2.14 16.70 13.0 Both 5.10 39.54 12.9 Monthly demand by poor households (kg/month/household) Rice 39.1 31.6 Wheat 28.3 22.6 Both cereals 67.4 54.3
  28. 28. Way forward food secure Bihar Bridging yield gaps and improve TFP Integrated nutrient management and sustainable use of water Agricultural diversification and value additionwith emphasison horticultural, livestock and fisheries Strengthen institutions and improve basic infrastructure like road network, power and agro-processing and markets . Link farmers with remunerative markets
  29. 29. ADMINISTRATOR •Awareness •Local wisdom •Peoples’ participation •SMALL FARMERS FARMER SCIENTIST Establish Active Interfaces : Bridge research and policy gaps PRIORITY AREAS SKILL DEVELOPMENT NATURALRESOURCES DIVERSIFICATION POST HARVEST ANDVALUE ADDITION TFP MARKET VALUE CHAIN Link farmers with remunerative market Higher investment on R&D ICT Irrigation Power Rural Road

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