1. Market information and
decision making :
the case of the « Observatoire du
the case of the « Observatoire du
Riz » in Madagascar
g
Patrick RASOLOFO
Nicole Andrianirina
Hélène David Benz

2. Main points
Main points
• Importance of the rice in Madagascar
Importance of the rice in Madagascar
• PCPRice (Rice consultation platform for the
steering of rice commodity chain)
steering of rice commodity chain)
• OdR
• Making decision process
• Limits

3. Importance of rice in Madagascar
Importance of rice in Madagascar
• 12% GNP of Madagascar
• 43% agricultural GNP of the country
l l f h
• 55% cultivated area, 87% of rural households
• Staple food
• Average consumption : 125 kg/capita/year
• Production doesn’t meet national consumption :
imports since 1970
• Rice is highly strategic (political issue: avoid
h hl
shortage, free distribution during election period or
after a catastrophe)
after a catastrophe)

4. Consultation and monitoring
Plateform on Rice (PCP) and Rice
on Rice (PCP) and Rice
Information System (OdR)
• Created in 2005 after a domestic market crisis
Created in 2005, after a domestic market crisis
in 2005
‐ 150% increase of consumer prices
150% increase of consumer prices,
‐ Contradictory information about prices and
availability between Min. of Agriculture and
il bili b Mi fA i l d
Mini. of Commerce
‐ Announcement of public imports ‐ delayed
y, p
‐ Faced to this uncertainty, importers hesitated
to import rice => shortage of rice

5. Consultation plateform for rice
commodity chain steering
d h
Main objectives
Main objectives
‐ Favour dialogue between different categories
of stakeholders,
of stakeholders
‐ Favor circulation of market information
(transparency),
( )
‐ discuss and propose measures to develop rice
sector,
p y
‐ orient rice policy decisions

6. PCPRice members
PCPRice members
8 stake‐holders groups : ‐ Status : association
Status : association
1‐Producers ‐ Mandate of the board:
2 years
2‐ Rice millers (industries and small
Rice millers (industries and small
ones) ‐ Board: elected
3‐ Intermediaries (transporters, representatives from each
stake‐holders group
g p
collector, traders…)
ll d )
4‐ Technical advice institutions ‐President from private
5‐ Credit institutions sector, elected by the
members of the board ; Vice
members of the board ; Vice
6‐ Administration ‐President from
7‐ Consumers administration
8 Researcher/ university
8‐ Researcher/ university
‐ Executive secretariat:
employee

7. L Observatoire du Riz (OdR)
L’Observatoire du Riz (OdR)
• Institutionnal home: EPP/PADR (steering team
Institutionnal home: EPP/PADR (steering team
of the Rural Development Plan, Prime Minister
Departement)
• Missions:
‐ Running the Rice MIS in all the districts of
Madagascar
‐ Providing up‐dated informations and analysis
to PCPRiz, in the frame of public/private
t PCPRi i th f f bli / i t
consultation

8. INFORMATION FLOWS
Collecte Infos receuillis Produits Utilisateurs
diffusion
Réflexions, constat,
Réflexions constat Réunion PCPRIZ
recommandation Notes
Courrier MINISTERES
Collecte
des prix H
Cours mondiaux,
Cours mondiaux
dans O LARGE
Prix de pétrole,
chaque R PUBLIC
Taux de change, Journaux
marché I INSTITUTIO
Prix du riz local
hebdo du
hebdo du Z NNEL
Importation,
I i
district O ‐‐‐‐‐‐‐
Variation climatique, etc.
N Mailing Diffusion
liste limitée par
Tableaux et cartes
Tableaux et cartes Info
I f
Internet, l’accès aux
des prix par district, Hebdo
Douanes, supports
Analyse temporelle
Commerce
et spatiale
Finances ACTEURS DU
ACTEURS DU
Agriculture Radio MARCHE
Base de ‐‐‐‐‐‐‐
Prix du riz Diffusion limitée par
donnée SMS l’accès aux supports

9. Improvement of rice market
stabilization capacity
t bili ti it
• Stabilisation du marché du riz grâce à l’analyse
spatiale et temporelle de l Info‐hebdo
spatiale et temporelle de l’Info hebdo
EVOLUTION DES PRIX MOYEN DU RIZ LOCAL 2006‐2009
1500
1300
Prix moyen /Kg
Moyenne Riz local 2008
1100
Moyenne Riz local 2009
Moyenne Riz local 2006
Moyenne Riz local 2007
900
700
S1 S3 S5 S7 S9 S11 S13 S15 S17 S19 S21 S23 S25 S27 S29 S31 S33 S35 S37 S39 S41 S43 S45 S47 S49 S51
Semaine

10. Concertation & anticipation process
• In 2006 & 2007 (cyclones)
Monthly meetings of PCP + OdR, leaded by the Prime
Monthly meetings of PCP + OdR leaded by the Prime
Minister
OdR data‐base and information network used to:
data base and information network used to:
• Identify area affected by cyclones,
• Identify traders in these areas
Identify traders in these areas,
• Orient traders towards these areas
PCP members estimate the needs and share the markets
PCP members estimate the needs and share the markets
among them
=> Ease the satisfaction of local needs across the country
=> Ease the satisfaction of local needs across the country
and avoid sudden increase of prices in affected areas

11. • In 2008 (World food crisis + « Green Revolution »
national policy)
national policy)
Crisis anticipation
Crisis anticipation
OdR warning : from Sept. 2007, OdR alerted the PCP
about the risk of sharp increase of world prices
Measures recommended by OdR and PCPRice :
Measures recommended by OdR and PCPRice :
• Importation of rice before the price pick
• Constitution of stock – negotiation of 50 000 tones of
g
rice with the Indian government

12. Crisis management
OdR : deeply involved in the monitoring of international and
domestic markets during all the crisis period
Frequent briefing notes prepared by OdR (send to PCP members +
Frequent briefing notes prepared by OdR (send to PCP members +
Gvt, and discussed during PCP meetings)
Frequent meeting of PCP + OdR + Gvt :
Measures recommended (and implemented)
• Removal of Import Taxe and Value Added Taxe
• Temporary exportation ban
i b
• Food for Work program for the most vulnerable
Results:
No need to import rice when prices where at their highest level
Contributed to a very limited impact of World food crisis on
Madagascar domestic market

13. • In 2009 (political crises)
Context : looting of several large stores + large whare‐houses
l f ll l h h
Dismantling of the President business on wholesale food products
10% inflation in few weeks
= > new Gvt set low consumer price to gain popularity (lowered from 1000 to
> new Gvt set low consumer price to gain popularity (lowered from 1000 to
500 Ar/kg)
Suspension of « Green Revolution » program set by the previous government
OdR + PCP : Several meetings with the Ministry of Commerce and new President
team
Measures recommended by OdR and PCPRiz
Measures recommended by OdR and PCPRiz :
• Stop the sales of subsidized rice (depressive effect on local rice),
• Encourage local rice buyers,
• Secure and ease transportation (removal of local transport tax ; military escort to
secure transportation)
t t ti )
• Priority of rice imports despite the import limitations (due to restriction of
currency expenses)
Results : Low prices during the first 3 month of marketing season, but return
to normal level and stabilization afterwards

14. Use of OdR information
By the Government:
• To reassure urban consumers (ex : about rice
availability) ; effet d’annonce
• Justify undertaken actions
• To decide the needed incentives to regulate markets
y
By the PCPRIZ:
• Defend points of view and interests of members
y y g p
By the food security donors & NGO group:
• Staple availability and accessibility for vulnerable
p p
population

15. LIMITS
OdR :
• Exclusion of poor farmers (telephone, radio,
Exclusion of poor farmers (telephone radio
education, literacy needed)
PCPRice ::
• Focused only on market stability issues but not on
p
production issues
• No room for farmers (officialy members but
rapidely ousted)
• The influence of PCPRice is used by head
members for personnal advantage : market
access, gain positions as advisors of ministries

16. CONCLUSION
• Success:
‐ Market regulation and decision making tool
(price stability, crisis management, warning)
(price stability crisis management warning)
• Limits:
‐ Government and large operator’s tool, but
producers and small‐scale operators excluded
‐ Dependent on donors support