Where does agriculture need to be in 2030/50? - Peter Reading

268 views

Published on

Published in: Technology
0 Comments
0 Likes
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

No Downloads
Views
Total views
268
On SlideShare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
8
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
6
Comments
0
Likes
0
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide

Where does agriculture need to be in 2030/50? - Peter Reading

  1. 1. Where Does Agriculture Need to be in 2030/50? 15 February 2011
  2. 2. Global Agriculture “The Burning Platform”• Population Growth• Arable Farmland• Competition for Arable Land (Biofuels, population)• Water Quality and Availability• Climate Change/Variability• Agricultural Productivity (?)• Farmer Profitability (?) – Prices – Costs – productivity
  3. 3. World Population Growth: Projected to 2050 +/- 900 MMT 2050 Demand in +/- 9.3 Billion 40 years (+ 240 MMT) 2010 6.8 Billion 239 MHA 660+ MMT 30 year down trend 229 MMT World wheat consumption World wheat harvested area
  4. 4. World Production and Use November, 2010 700 680 660 666 640 653 620MMT 683 600 580 643 560 540 520 500 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 Production Use
  5. 5. Published: September 2, 2010 Fears grow over global food supplyTwo days of unrest in Maputo, Mozambique, left seven people dead and280 injured after the government decided to raise bread prices by 30%
  6. 6. Rainfall trend 1970-2008
  7. 7. Challenges for the Australian Grains IndustryDeclining rates of TotalFactor Productivitygrowth– Drought years– Decreased RD&E expenditure ($, direction)– Lack of „near term‟ technologies– GM (cereals) 10 years away– Farm management capability
  8. 8. Farmer ProfitabilityHigh levels of farm debt amongst broadacre farms ...…$’000 2008/09 dollars800 Farm debt600400 Farm receipts200 Farm cash income 0 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008
  9. 9. Global Agriculture “The Way Forward”• Government Policy (National and International)  Socio/economic  Trade policies  Industry restructuring  Investments in RD&E  Recognition of “Global Village”  Climate variability/change S U• Increased productivity S T  Industry restructure A  Focussed and driven RD&E I N A B• Increased profitability I • terms of trade L I • productivity T Y
  10. 10. Grains Industry – Global Trends Increased urban population Resource Increased Scarcity free trade Food Sustainable Food safetydevelopment traceability Energy Environment
  11. 11. The grains industry next 20 years – Mega trendsFactors PrioritiesMain Game ↑↑Yield )- Wheat; barley WUE ) Productivity- Sorghum North Cost Efficiency ) &- Broadleaf ↑ (hopefully!) Abiotic/Biotic stress ) Profitability Quality )Niche/value added opportunities Identify and develop (<500k tons)(Taiwan noodles, HAW, sponge & dough)East Coast/West Coast Grain types/qualityClimate change HRZ wheats, irrigated wheats- Geography shifts Crops- ETS Livestock Costs LegumesGM Technologies ↑Productivity (unlikely < 10years)Quality/Traceability Market opportunities/requirementsGrain Farms Numbers Size & businessSecond generation biofuels Location SizeGrains Industry supply chain Continued consolidation and globalizationNational Grains RD&E Strategy (International?) ↑ Productivity ↑Profitability and Sustainability
  12. 12. Grains IndustryNational Research Development & Extension Strategy December 2010
  13. 13. National RD&E Priorities & Delivery PlanVision A PROFITABLE. COMPETITIVE AND SUSTAINABLE GRAINS INDUSTRY ↑Yield ↑Value ↓Costs ↑SustainabilityIndustry Outcome Total Factor Productivity Growth of Greater than 2.5% per annum over the Next Decade whilst Sustaining the Productive Capacity of the Resource base.National RD&E Outcome Highly Efficient National Grains RD&E Sector National Centres of Research Capability, National Research Programs, Regional Networks of RD&ERD&E Strategies BUILD ON EXISTING DEVELOP EFFECTIVE NATIONAL RESEARCH NATIONAL CAPABILITY BETTER & ON-GOINGPartners NATIONAL RELATIONSHIP PROGRAMS, NATIONAL PLANNING FOR HUMAN ALIGNMENT OF COLLABORATION MODELS FOR PRIVATE CENTRES OF RESEARCH AND PHYSICAL STAKEHOLDERDAFF - PUBLIC COEXISTENCE CAPABILITY AND REGIONAL INFRASTRUCTURE PRIORITIES AND RD&EState Departments NETWORKS OF APPLIED RESOURCE ALLOCATIONCSIROUniversities RD&E UNDER THE “MAJOR- SUPPORT-LINK”GRDCGCA FRAMEWORKIndustry & Government Improved Varieties to Lift Improved Practices to Supply Chain Innovation & Building Farm Business & Productivity & Product Enhance Productivity & Market Competitiveness Industry CapabilityPriorities Value SustainabilityProductivity Growers and industry have Improved on-farm practices Advance industry knowledge Accelerate adoption of newMarkets ongoing access to improved that increase productivity and throughout the supply chain technologies and practiceBiosecurity genetics and varieties with profitability whilst maintaining to improve the change across all segments of better on-farm performance, or improving the natural competitiveness and the grains industryClimate reduced cost of production resource base and product profitability of the sectorNatural resource management and grain qualities that are integrityRegional & industry capacity competitive in global markets
  14. 14. Statement on Biotech Commercialization
  15. 15. 1969 Rainfall 50 Total rainfall 217mm Growing Season 45 40 Rainfall Yield 400kg / ha April to October 35 152mm 30mm 25 20 15 10 5 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Month
  16. 16. 2002 Rainfall 30 Total rainfall 164mm Growing Season 25 Rainfall Yield 990kg / ha April to October 20 110mmmm 15 10 5 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Month
  17. 17. Summary• Future Challenges but equally great opportunities will require:  Clearly defined strategies • Government • Private  Effective change management  Strong relationship management

×