Moving towards liquid phase industry suwit maesincee moi 1
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Moving towards liquid phase industry suwit maesincee moi 1 Moving towards liquid phase industry suwit maesincee moi 1 Presentation Transcript

  • Moving Towards Liquid Phase Industry Suvit Maesincee Sasin Institute for Global Affairs (SIGA) September 20, 2009 Dr. Suvit Maesincee Digitally signed by Dr. Suvit Maesincee DN: cn=Dr. Suvit Maesincee, c=TH, email=msuvit@gmail.com Reason: I am the author of this document Date: 2010.02.28 18:54:39 +07'00'
  • Agenda • Liquid Phase Modernity in Making • Industry In Transition • Building New Industry Portfolio for Sustainable Competitiveness
  • Agenda • Liquid Phase Modernity in Making • Industry In Transition • Building New Industry Portfolio for Sustainable Competitiveness View slide
  • Globalization New Markets Climate Change New Regulations Environment & Natural Resources New Competitors Security Natural Concerns Disasters New Commodity Partnerships Prices New Customer Disruptive Expectations Technology New Business Political Models Unrests View slide
  • Changing State of Nature Nation 1 Nation 2 Nation 3 Public Private People Solid Modernity Liquid Modernity • Connectivity • Interactivity • Mobility • Virtuality
  • Characteristics of Liquid Phase Modernity Open Multiplicity Local Overlapping Self Reflexivity
  • The New Politics of Space & Time Spatial Time in Space • Dis-embedding / Re-embedding • The World in Pieces Temporal Space in Time • Temporariness • Instantaneity • Delay Gratification
  • Consequences Hyperconsumption Nanosecond Culture Hypermodernity Culture of Immediacy Hypercompetition
  • Global Forces & Trends Globalization Democratization of of Risks Power & Wealth The End of the Nation-State The New Age of Capitalism
  • Democratization of Power & Wealth Global GDP* % % Global GDP 2015 100 75 Developed Countries Asia 80 50 60 Developing Countries 40 ROW 25 20 0 1820 70 1913 50 73 2005 India USA Other Regions China Other Japan Western Europe
  • The New USA East Asia South Asia Southeast Asia
  • The New Geopolitics Japan Asia China Latin Africa American Europe The US
  • A Range of Future after the End of the Bi-polar World Unipolarity Bipolarity First Among Equals The 1+X World Multipolarity Source: Tanaka Akihiko
  • Policy Responding to the Rise of Multipolarity • China New • India Triad • Russia Thailand • Europe • US • China • Japan Existing • Japan Triad • Korea
  • Global Forces & Trends Globalization Democratization of of Risks Power & Wealth The End of the Nation-State The New Age of Capitalism
  • Whole Picture of the World Economy One Side of the Coin The Other Side of the Coin Growth Risks Opportunity Interaction Threats Prosperity Crises
  • We are living in a Global Risk Community Globalization of Risks Risk Society • Climate Change Global • Financial Crisis •Pandemic Diseases • Hyper-conflict • Terrorism • Mass Production • Imbalance of Refugee • Instability Local • Extreme Poverty • Genocide • Insecurity • Civil War Local Global
  • The Evolution of Global Risks Twenty First Century Risks Twentieth Century Risks • Climate Change • Global Financial Crises • Suicide Attacks • Industrial Accidents • Wars Natural Catastrophes e.g., earthquakes, tsunamis
  • Global risks occur in multiple dimensions Some risks are spreading over national Spatial borders and even over continents Some risks have a long latency period, Temporal so that their future effects cannot be reliably determined and restricted Many new risks are the result of complex Social processes involving long chains of effects, so their causes and effects cannot be determined with sufficient precision
  • We are facing with perpetual uncertainty Global Job Crisis Global Magnitude of Crisis Economic Crisis Severity Global Financial Turmoil Commodity Price Bubble Real Estate Bubble Dot Within Com a Decade Burst Asian Financial Crisis Time Time
  • The impact of global risks Democratic Global risks affect both the rich and the poor, the powerful and the powerless Incalculable Their consequence are in principle incalculable Non-Compensable Given the new quality of “threats to humanity”, the logic of compensation is breaking down and is being replaced by the principle of precaution through prevention
  • In the Liquid Phase Modernity, “Fear” determines the attitude towards life Freedom & National Equality Security Human Security Security Construction & maintenance of Precaution social & political order Management of Laissez-faire uncertainty, risk & insecurity Security is the legal assurance of freedom
  • Can Thailand accommodate global risks and opportunities? The Rise of the Rest The Age of Africa World Opportunities The Rise of Asia Relationship w/ China, India Asia • Climate Change • Endemic/ AEC Mekong Region ASEAN Chronic North Korea Disease Border Terrorism • Economic Regional Hub Conflict Crisis Myanmar Thailand Migration Political Turmoil Risks
  • Bridging policy and managerial implications Macro Macro Opportunity Risk Micro Micro Opportunity Risk
  • Environmental Climate Dimension (+) Beneficiaries from Climate Change Double under Government Control Winners Construction& Associated Sector Tourism Chemical Mechanical Industry & Electrical Renewable Engineering Building Materials, Energies Auto- Paper Industry motive Metal Industry Regulatory Energy Sector Textile Agriculture Market (-) Finance (Fossil Fuels) & Clothing & Forestry Economy Condition (+) Transportation Food Industry Beneficiaries from Government Double Measures with Climate Risks Losers Source: DB Research (-)
  • A growth-driven virtuous circle and a risk-driven vicious circle are highly associated Growth Risks Interaction Threats Opportunity Crises Prosperity
  • Two basic principles of risk evaluation come into conflicts Precaution “When in doubt, opt against doubt” Order Chaos Laissez-faire “When in doubt, opt for doubt”
  • Global Forces & Trends Globalization Democratization of of Risks Power & Wealth The End of the Nation-State The New Age of Capitalism
  • Globalization of Public Goods Global Commons
  • Shifting in Centricity Global Social Centric Conformance Community Centric Conformance Company Economic Centric Conformance Local Global
  • The End of Nation-State? Global Governance Commonization Nation-State Liquid Modernity Individualization Self Governance
  • High Conflict Divergence of interests among great powers Sham Rival Standards Standards Low Conflict Club Harmonized Standards Standards High Conflict Low Conflict Divergence of interests between great powers and other international actors Source: Daniel W. Drezner “All Politics Is Global”
  • Global Forces & Trends Globalization Democratization of of Risks Power & Wealth The End of the Nation-State The New Age of Capitalism
  • The End of Socialism Socialism Capitalism There is no alternative Free Market Economy
  • The End of Capitalism ? • Setting coordinating mechanism Capitalism • Sharing more information and warning signals • Making the system more transparent Managed Free Market • Minimizing the asymmetric Economy information and unfair Economy practices Coordinated Economy • Pursuing the tighten regulation and de-leveraging measures
  • Centralization & Concentration Mode of Operations Poly- Geo- Ethno- Centricity Centricity Centricity Free Market Economy Capitalism Coordinated Economy Managed Economy
  • Change in Consumption Pattern • Earning Adaptation • Spending/Saving Ratio According to High the Crisis Purchasing Power • Economize • Reprioritize Low High Low Necessity of Goods
  • Increase Consumer Purchasing Power Adaptation High According to the Crisis • Purchasing Government Power stimulus package • Consumer finance Low High Low Necessity of Goods
  • Increase Affordability Adaptation High According to the Crisis Purchasing Power • Value for money • No Frill/ Reduced options • Fighting brands/ Private label • Special offered Low High Low Necessity of Goods
  • Change in Competitive Intensity Pre-Crisis Accumulative Market Share Concentration Ratio Post Crisis Scenario I Accumulative Market Share Accumulative Market Share Post Crisis Scenario II Number of Competitors Number of Competitors
  • Agenda • Liquid Phase Modernity in Making • Industry In Transition • Building New Industry Portfolio for Sustainable Competitiveness
  • Reorienting the World Humanization Post Knowledge Based Society Knowledge Based Society Industrial Materialization Society Private Interest Public Interest
  • Reorienting the Mental Model Humanization Care & Share Sense & Response Make & Sell Materialization Private Interest Public Interest
  • A Balanced Nation Economic Environmental Wealth Wellness Sustainable Value Creation Development Economy Entrepreneurial Culture Caring Society Self Expression Value Care & Share Culture People Communal with Knowledge Value & Morality Human Social Wisdom Well-Being
  • Strategic Gaps Environmental Environmental Wellness Wellness Social Economic Social Economic Well-being Wealth Well-being Wealth Human Human Wisdom Wisdom
  • Challenges Facing Economic based Industry Environmental Friendly ? Economic Based Social Industry Responsibility ? • Efficiency • Profitability • Growth Human Potentiality ?
  • Environmental Friendly ? Positive Collective Action Positive Win-Win Sum Game Existing Maximum Capacity Trade-off Negative Sum Game Oblivious Time Presence
  • Social Responsibility ? Corporate Corporate Global Corporate Corporate Social Corporate Social Governance Philanthropy Responsibility Citizenship Entrepreneurship
  • Human Potentiality ? Industrial Age Knowledge Age Creative Age • Mass Production • Mass Customization •Creative Collaboration •Corporate Governance •Market Governance •People Governance •Asymmetry of •Democratization of •Democratization of Information Information Creativity •Economies of Scarcity •Network Externality •Economies of Reciprocity •Owning the Asset •Gaining the Access •Empowering the People •Consumer/Producer •B2C Prosumer/ Co-Creator •P2P Prosumer •Market Segmentation •Value Chain Integration •Open Innovation/ Creativity •Goods for Elite •Goods for Everyone •Goods For/By Everyone Source: Suvit Maesincee “Post Knowledge Based Society”
  • Agenda • Liquid Phase Modernity in Making • Industry In Transition • Building New Industry Portfolio for Sustainable Competitiveness
  • A balanced nation needs a balanced industry portfolio Economic Environmental Economic Environmental Centric Centric Wealth Wellness Industries Industries Human Social Human Social Centric Centric Wisdom Well-Being Industries Industries
  • The New Portfolio of Industries Economic Environmental Centric Centric Industries Industries Human Social Centric Centric Industries Industries • Manufacturing • Alternative • Creative • OTOP Energy Economy • BOP • Recycle • Service • Social Production Business Industries • Peer Production • Knowledge • Distributed Industries Creativity Resource Resource Knowledge/ Social Spending Saving Creative Content Content Content Content Efficiency Sustainability Creativity Co-Prosperity
  • Industry Cluster Redefined Environmental Centric Economic Centric Industry Cluster Industry Cluster Social Centric Industry Cluster Human Centric Industry Cluster Interaction among clusters enhance value creation
  • Creative Value Creation Economic Centric Industry Value Value Added Creation Social Centric Industry Human Creative Centric Industry Business Environmental Centric Industry Welfare Competitive Growth Innovative Economy Economy Economy Economy
  • Environmental Value Creation Economic Value Value Centric Industry Added Creation Social Centric Industry Human Centric Industry Energy Saving Environmental Business Centric Industry Welfare Competitive Growth Innovative Economy Economy Economy Economy
  • Social Value Creation Economic Value Value Centric Industry Added Creation Social Social Centric Industry Enterprise Human Centric Industry Environmental Centric Industry Welfare Competitive Growth Innovative Economy Economy Economy Economy
  • Industry Capacity Building
  • Building New Industry Portfolio for Sustainable Competitiveness Economic Social Wealth Well-being Economic Social Centric Centric Industry Industry Human Environmental Centric Centric Industry Industry Human Environmental Wisdom Wellness