Moving Towards
Liquid Phase Industry


          Suvit Maesincee
    Sasin Institute for Global Affairs (SIGA)
           ...
Agenda


• Liquid Phase Modernity in Making


• Industry In Transition


• Building New Industry Portfolio
  for Sustainab...
Agenda


• Liquid Phase Modernity in Making


• Industry In Transition


• Building New Industry Portfolio
  for Sustainab...
Globalization

    New Markets                          Climate
                                         Change
          ...
Changing State of Nature

          Nation 1 Nation 2 Nation 3


Public


Private


People




      Solid Modernity      ...
Characteristics of Liquid Phase Modernity

                           Open
                         Multiplicity




     ...
The New Politics of Space & Time


    Spatial
                                   Time in Space
          • Dis-embedding ...
Consequences

                     Hyperconsumption




Nanosecond Culture
                                          Hyper...
Global Forces & Trends
                         Globalization
 Democratization of        of Risks
  Power & Wealth




   ...
Democratization of Power & Wealth


             Global GDP* %                                         % Global GDP 2015
 ...
The New USA




              East Asia


              South Asia


              Southeast Asia
The New Geopolitics


                       Japan




                       Asia




                       China

     ...
A Range of Future after the End of the Bi-polar World


                                     Unipolarity


     Bipolarity...
Policy Responding to the Rise of Multipolarity


                                                 • China

               ...
Global Forces & Trends
                         Globalization
 Democratization of        of Risks
  Power & Wealth




   ...
Whole Picture of the World Economy

      One Side of the Coin           The Other Side of the Coin


                  Gr...
We are living in a Global Risk Community


                 Globalization of Risks

                                      ...
The Evolution of Global Risks

                                            Twenty First
                                  ...
Global risks occur in multiple dimensions


                  Some risks are spreading over national
     Spatial      bor...
We are facing with perpetual uncertainty

                                                                                ...
The impact of global risks


 Democratic        Global risks affect both the rich and the poor, the
                   pow...
In the Liquid Phase Modernity, “Fear” determines
the attitude towards life


Freedom &                                Nati...
Can Thailand accommodate global risks and
opportunities?

                                    The Rise of the Rest
       ...
Bridging policy and managerial implications



   Macro                                      Macro
 Opportunity           ...
Environmental Climate Dimension (+)

      Beneficiaries from Climate Change                                              ...
A growth-driven virtuous circle and a risk-driven
vicious circle are highly associated
                              Growt...
Two basic principles of risk evaluation come into
conflicts
                                        Precaution

          ...
Global Forces & Trends
                         Globalization
 Democratization of        of Risks
  Power & Wealth




   ...
Globalization of Public Goods


                                 Global
                                Commons
Shifting in Centricity

                                          Global
     Social                              Centric
...
The End of Nation-State?
                                         Global
                                       Governance...
High Conflict
                 Divergence of interests
                  among great powers                             Sh...
Global Forces & Trends
                         Globalization
 Democratization of        of Risks
  Power & Wealth




   ...
The End of Socialism




    Socialism          Capitalism
                                            There is
          ...
The End of Capitalism ?

                                      • Setting coordinating
                                    ...
Centralization & Concentration
                                          Mode of Operations

                             ...
Change in Consumption Pattern

                      • Earning                  Adaptation
                      • Spendin...
Increase Consumer Purchasing Power

                                                 Adaptation
                 High     ...
Increase Affordability

                                                 Adaptation
                 High                 ...
Change in Competitive Intensity

                   Pre-Crisis




                                                     Ac...
Agenda


• Liquid Phase Modernity in Making


• Industry In Transition


• Building New Industry Portfolio
  for Sustainab...
Reorienting the World


Humanization                              Post Knowledge Based
                                   ...
Reorienting the Mental Model


Humanization                                     Care & Share



                          ...
A Balanced Nation

     Economic                                           Environmental
      Wealth                     ...
Strategic Gaps

             Environmental                           Environmental
               Wellness                ...
Challenges Facing Economic based Industry


                             Environmental
                              Frien...
Environmental Friendly ?

                                                          Positive
                             ...
Social Responsibility ?




                          Corporate       Corporate         Global
 Corporate  Corporate      ...
Human Potentiality ?

            Industrial Age                               Knowledge Age              Creative Age

• ...
Agenda


• Liquid Phase Modernity in Making


• Industry In Transition


• Building New Industry Portfolio
  for Sustainab...
A balanced nation needs a balanced industry portfolio


                              Economic     Environmental
 Economic...
The New Portfolio of Industries
Economic             Environmental
  Centric                Centric
Industries            ...
Industry Cluster Redefined

                               Environmental Centric
 Economic Centric                 Industr...
Creative Value Creation

  Economic
Centric Industry               Value                   Value
                         ...
Environmental Value Creation

  Economic
                                Value                    Value
Centric Industry
 ...
Social Value Creation

  Economic
                               Value                   Value
Centric Industry
          ...
Industry Capacity Building
Building New Industry Portfolio for Sustainable
Competitiveness


             Economic                   Social
         ...
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Moving towards liquid phase industry suwit maesincee moi 1

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Moving towards liquid phase industry suwit maesincee moi 1

  1. 1. Moving Towards Liquid Phase Industry Suvit Maesincee Sasin Institute for Global Affairs (SIGA) September 20, 2009 Dr. Suvit Maesincee Digitally signed by Dr. Suvit Maesincee DN: cn=Dr. Suvit Maesincee, c=TH, email=msuvit@gmail.com Reason: I am the author of this document Date: 2010.02.28 18:54:39 +07'00'
  2. 2. Agenda • Liquid Phase Modernity in Making • Industry In Transition • Building New Industry Portfolio for Sustainable Competitiveness
  3. 3. Agenda • Liquid Phase Modernity in Making • Industry In Transition • Building New Industry Portfolio for Sustainable Competitiveness
  4. 4. Globalization New Markets Climate Change New Regulations Environment & Natural Resources New Competitors Security Natural Concerns Disasters New Commodity Partnerships Prices New Customer Disruptive Expectations Technology New Business Political Models Unrests
  5. 5. Changing State of Nature Nation 1 Nation 2 Nation 3 Public Private People Solid Modernity Liquid Modernity • Connectivity • Interactivity • Mobility • Virtuality
  6. 6. Characteristics of Liquid Phase Modernity Open Multiplicity Local Overlapping Self Reflexivity
  7. 7. The New Politics of Space & Time Spatial Time in Space • Dis-embedding / Re-embedding • The World in Pieces Temporal Space in Time • Temporariness • Instantaneity • Delay Gratification
  8. 8. Consequences Hyperconsumption Nanosecond Culture Hypermodernity Culture of Immediacy Hypercompetition
  9. 9. Global Forces & Trends Globalization Democratization of of Risks Power & Wealth The End of the Nation-State The New Age of Capitalism
  10. 10. Democratization of Power & Wealth Global GDP* % % Global GDP 2015 100 75 Developed Countries Asia 80 50 60 Developing Countries 40 ROW 25 20 0 1820 70 1913 50 73 2005 India USA Other Regions China Other Japan Western Europe
  11. 11. The New USA East Asia South Asia Southeast Asia
  12. 12. The New Geopolitics Japan Asia China Latin Africa American Europe The US
  13. 13. A Range of Future after the End of the Bi-polar World Unipolarity Bipolarity First Among Equals The 1+X World Multipolarity Source: Tanaka Akihiko
  14. 14. Policy Responding to the Rise of Multipolarity • China New • India Triad • Russia Thailand • Europe • US • China • Japan Existing • Japan Triad • Korea
  15. 15. Global Forces & Trends Globalization Democratization of of Risks Power & Wealth The End of the Nation-State The New Age of Capitalism
  16. 16. Whole Picture of the World Economy One Side of the Coin The Other Side of the Coin Growth Risks Opportunity Interaction Threats Prosperity Crises
  17. 17. We are living in a Global Risk Community Globalization of Risks Risk Society • Climate Change Global • Financial Crisis •Pandemic Diseases • Hyper-conflict • Terrorism • Mass Production • Imbalance of Refugee • Instability Local • Extreme Poverty • Genocide • Insecurity • Civil War Local Global
  18. 18. The Evolution of Global Risks Twenty First Century Risks Twentieth Century Risks • Climate Change • Global Financial Crises • Suicide Attacks • Industrial Accidents • Wars Natural Catastrophes e.g., earthquakes, tsunamis
  19. 19. Global risks occur in multiple dimensions Some risks are spreading over national Spatial borders and even over continents Some risks have a long latency period, Temporal so that their future effects cannot be reliably determined and restricted Many new risks are the result of complex Social processes involving long chains of effects, so their causes and effects cannot be determined with sufficient precision
  20. 20. We are facing with perpetual uncertainty Global Job Crisis Global Magnitude of Crisis Economic Crisis Severity Global Financial Turmoil Commodity Price Bubble Real Estate Bubble Dot Within Com a Decade Burst Asian Financial Crisis Time Time
  21. 21. The impact of global risks Democratic Global risks affect both the rich and the poor, the powerful and the powerless Incalculable Their consequence are in principle incalculable Non-Compensable Given the new quality of “threats to humanity”, the logic of compensation is breaking down and is being replaced by the principle of precaution through prevention
  22. 22. In the Liquid Phase Modernity, “Fear” determines the attitude towards life Freedom & National Equality Security Human Security Security Construction & maintenance of Precaution social & political order Management of Laissez-faire uncertainty, risk & insecurity Security is the legal assurance of freedom
  23. 23. Can Thailand accommodate global risks and opportunities? The Rise of the Rest The Age of Africa World Opportunities The Rise of Asia Relationship w/ China, India Asia • Climate Change • Endemic/ AEC Mekong Region ASEAN Chronic North Korea Disease Border Terrorism • Economic Regional Hub Conflict Crisis Myanmar Thailand Migration Political Turmoil Risks
  24. 24. Bridging policy and managerial implications Macro Macro Opportunity Risk Micro Micro Opportunity Risk
  25. 25. Environmental Climate Dimension (+) Beneficiaries from Climate Change Double under Government Control Winners Construction& Associated Sector Tourism Chemical Mechanical Industry & Electrical Renewable Engineering Building Materials, Energies Auto- Paper Industry motive Metal Industry Regulatory Energy Sector Textile Agriculture Market (-) Finance (Fossil Fuels) & Clothing & Forestry Economy Condition (+) Transportation Food Industry Beneficiaries from Government Double Measures with Climate Risks Losers Source: DB Research (-)
  26. 26. A growth-driven virtuous circle and a risk-driven vicious circle are highly associated Growth Risks Interaction Threats Opportunity Crises Prosperity
  27. 27. Two basic principles of risk evaluation come into conflicts Precaution “When in doubt, opt against doubt” Order Chaos Laissez-faire “When in doubt, opt for doubt”
  28. 28. Global Forces & Trends Globalization Democratization of of Risks Power & Wealth The End of the Nation-State The New Age of Capitalism
  29. 29. Globalization of Public Goods Global Commons
  30. 30. Shifting in Centricity Global Social Centric Conformance Community Centric Conformance Company Economic Centric Conformance Local Global
  31. 31. The End of Nation-State? Global Governance Commonization Nation-State Liquid Modernity Individualization Self Governance
  32. 32. High Conflict Divergence of interests among great powers Sham Rival Standards Standards Low Conflict Club Harmonized Standards Standards High Conflict Low Conflict Divergence of interests between great powers and other international actors Source: Daniel W. Drezner “All Politics Is Global”
  33. 33. Global Forces & Trends Globalization Democratization of of Risks Power & Wealth The End of the Nation-State The New Age of Capitalism
  34. 34. The End of Socialism Socialism Capitalism There is no alternative Free Market Economy
  35. 35. The End of Capitalism ? • Setting coordinating mechanism Capitalism • Sharing more information and warning signals • Making the system more transparent Managed Free Market • Minimizing the asymmetric Economy information and unfair Economy practices Coordinated Economy • Pursuing the tighten regulation and de-leveraging measures
  36. 36. Centralization & Concentration Mode of Operations Poly- Geo- Ethno- Centricity Centricity Centricity Free Market Economy Capitalism Coordinated Economy Managed Economy
  37. 37. Change in Consumption Pattern • Earning Adaptation • Spending/Saving Ratio According to High the Crisis Purchasing Power • Economize • Reprioritize Low High Low Necessity of Goods
  38. 38. Increase Consumer Purchasing Power Adaptation High According to the Crisis • Purchasing Government Power stimulus package • Consumer finance Low High Low Necessity of Goods
  39. 39. Increase Affordability Adaptation High According to the Crisis Purchasing Power • Value for money • No Frill/ Reduced options • Fighting brands/ Private label • Special offered Low High Low Necessity of Goods
  40. 40. Change in Competitive Intensity Pre-Crisis Accumulative Market Share Concentration Ratio Post Crisis Scenario I Accumulative Market Share Accumulative Market Share Post Crisis Scenario II Number of Competitors Number of Competitors
  41. 41. Agenda • Liquid Phase Modernity in Making • Industry In Transition • Building New Industry Portfolio for Sustainable Competitiveness
  42. 42. Reorienting the World Humanization Post Knowledge Based Society Knowledge Based Society Industrial Materialization Society Private Interest Public Interest
  43. 43. Reorienting the Mental Model Humanization Care & Share Sense & Response Make & Sell Materialization Private Interest Public Interest
  44. 44. A Balanced Nation Economic Environmental Wealth Wellness Sustainable Value Creation Development Economy Entrepreneurial Culture Caring Society Self Expression Value Care & Share Culture People Communal with Knowledge Value & Morality Human Social Wisdom Well-Being
  45. 45. Strategic Gaps Environmental Environmental Wellness Wellness Social Economic Social Economic Well-being Wealth Well-being Wealth Human Human Wisdom Wisdom
  46. 46. Challenges Facing Economic based Industry Environmental Friendly ? Economic Based Social Industry Responsibility ? • Efficiency • Profitability • Growth Human Potentiality ?
  47. 47. Environmental Friendly ? Positive Collective Action Positive Win-Win Sum Game Existing Maximum Capacity Trade-off Negative Sum Game Oblivious Time Presence
  48. 48. Social Responsibility ? Corporate Corporate Global Corporate Corporate Social Corporate Social Governance Philanthropy Responsibility Citizenship Entrepreneurship
  49. 49. Human Potentiality ? Industrial Age Knowledge Age Creative Age • Mass Production • Mass Customization •Creative Collaboration •Corporate Governance •Market Governance •People Governance •Asymmetry of •Democratization of •Democratization of Information Information Creativity •Economies of Scarcity •Network Externality •Economies of Reciprocity •Owning the Asset •Gaining the Access •Empowering the People •Consumer/Producer •B2C Prosumer/ Co-Creator •P2P Prosumer •Market Segmentation •Value Chain Integration •Open Innovation/ Creativity •Goods for Elite •Goods for Everyone •Goods For/By Everyone Source: Suvit Maesincee “Post Knowledge Based Society”
  50. 50. Agenda • Liquid Phase Modernity in Making • Industry In Transition • Building New Industry Portfolio for Sustainable Competitiveness
  51. 51. A balanced nation needs a balanced industry portfolio Economic Environmental Economic Environmental Centric Centric Wealth Wellness Industries Industries Human Social Human Social Centric Centric Wisdom Well-Being Industries Industries
  52. 52. The New Portfolio of Industries Economic Environmental Centric Centric Industries Industries Human Social Centric Centric Industries Industries • Manufacturing • Alternative • Creative • OTOP Energy Economy • BOP • Recycle • Service • Social Production Business Industries • Peer Production • Knowledge • Distributed Industries Creativity Resource Resource Knowledge/ Social Spending Saving Creative Content Content Content Content Efficiency Sustainability Creativity Co-Prosperity
  53. 53. Industry Cluster Redefined Environmental Centric Economic Centric Industry Cluster Industry Cluster Social Centric Industry Cluster Human Centric Industry Cluster Interaction among clusters enhance value creation
  54. 54. Creative Value Creation Economic Centric Industry Value Value Added Creation Social Centric Industry Human Creative Centric Industry Business Environmental Centric Industry Welfare Competitive Growth Innovative Economy Economy Economy Economy
  55. 55. Environmental Value Creation Economic Value Value Centric Industry Added Creation Social Centric Industry Human Centric Industry Energy Saving Environmental Business Centric Industry Welfare Competitive Growth Innovative Economy Economy Economy Economy
  56. 56. Social Value Creation Economic Value Value Centric Industry Added Creation Social Social Centric Industry Enterprise Human Centric Industry Environmental Centric Industry Welfare Competitive Growth Innovative Economy Economy Economy Economy
  57. 57. Industry Capacity Building
  58. 58. Building New Industry Portfolio for Sustainable Competitiveness Economic Social Wealth Well-being Economic Social Centric Centric Industry Industry Human Environmental Centric Centric Industry Industry Human Environmental Wisdom Wellness

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