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Low cvp+infrastructure+roadmap electiricty+report
- 5. 5
Background-a‘TransportInfrastructureroadmap’isneededto
complementexistingvehicleandfuelroadmaps
Source:AutoCouncilandLowCVP
Vehicleroadmaps
Transportfuelroadmaps
Source:AutoCouncilandElementEnergyfortheLowCVP
Inthecontextoftheexpectedtransitiontolowercarbonpowertrains
andfuels,theAutoCouncilvehicleroadmapshaveproventobea
usefultooltofocusresearch,fundingandpolicy,bringingintoone
placetheindustry’sviewsonfuturetechnologyoptions,deployment
stepsandcorrespondingpolicydrivers.
Tocomplementthesepowertraintechnologiesroadmaps,the
LowCVPcommissionedaRoadTransportFuelsRoadmapin2013-14,
whichalsoprovedsuccessfulinbringingclaritytothefueloptions
availableandmappingtheenablingmilestones.
ThisInfrastructureroadmapisthe‘missingpiece’thatwillsupport
newpowertrainsandnewfuels.Thisroadmapisallthemore
necessaryastheneedsandbarriersfordeploymentofelectric,
hydrogenandgasrefuellingstationsdiffersignificantlyand
refuelling/recharginginfrastructureisakeyenablerforlowemission
vehicles.
TheobjectivesoftheInfrastructureRoadmapareto:
−Assesstheinfrastructureneedsandbarriersfordeploymentof
electric,hydrogenandgasrefuellingstationsto2050,including
impactonupstreamdistribution,aswellastoconsider
‘conventional’liquidfuels
−Makerecommendationsfordeliveryofinfrastructure
deployment,bothatnationalandlocalgovernmentlevel.
Source:ElementEnergy
- 6. 6
TheInfrastructureRoadmapcoversprivateandpublicinfrastructure,
forallmainroadvehiclesandbothcurrentandfuturefuels
Depotbasedrefuellingforfleetoperatorsandreturntobase
operators
Homerechargingforprivateand(some)commercialvehicles
Publicforecourtrefuelling/recharging
Refuellinginfrastructuretypes
Fuels/energyvectorsconsidered
Zerotailpipeemissionfuels:electricityandhydrogen
‘Conventional’liquidfuels:gasoline(E5toE20,inlinewith
theTransportFuelsRoadmap),diesel,LPG/bio-propane
Methane:CompressedNaturalGas(CNG),LiquefiedNG(LNG)
andbiomethane
Niche/futurefuels:methanol,liquidairandahighbioethanol
blend(E85)
TheUK’slegallybindingtargettoreducetotalGHGemissionsbyatleast80%(relativeto1990levels)by2050,
andtransportcontributestoc.25%ofUKtotalGHGemissions;
EUlevelregulations(gCO2/km,AirQualitytargetsandEUROspec),Directives(RenewableEnergy,FuelQuality,
CleanPowerforTransport)andTransportWhitePaper
Driversforchangeinthetransportenergysystem
Vehicletypes
Source:ElementEnergy
- 7. 7
ThedevelopmentoftheInfrastructureRoadmapbenefittedfrominput
fromawiderangeofstakeholders,manyconsultedthroughworkshops
Developuptakescenarios
for%salesofelectricand
ICEvehicles
InputintoElementEnergy
fleetmodel
Outputnumbersof
vehiclesinthefleetand
MJusedperenergyvector
ICEvehicles:diesel,petrol,LPG,gasvehicles
Electricvehicles:Battery(BEV),Plug-inHybrid(PHEV),
Range-Extended(RE-EV)andhydrogenfuelcell(FCEV)
Niche/futurefuelsconsidered:E85,methanol,liquidair
PrepareInfrastructure
Roadmap
Reviewexistingliterature
onrefuellingand
upstreaminfrastructure
Industryconsultation
withLowCVPFuels
workinggroup
ReviewbySteering
Committee
Preparedraftreport
Completefinalreport
Hoststakeholder
workshops
Fourdedicatedfuelworkshopswereconducted
Workshopthemes:electricity,liquidfuels,methane,hydrogen
38attendeesincluded:Infrastructuremanufacturers,installers,
operators,DNOs,energycompanies,fuelsuppliers,OEM/vehicle
suppliers,endusers,localgovernment/regulator
Reportpreparation
Externalinput
Source:ElementEnergy
vkt:vehiclekmtravelled
Seefullreportsfor
furtherdetailsoffuel
uptakescenarios
Scrappagerate,stockandmileageinputsbasedonDfTdata/projections:c.40%increaseinstockand
vktby2050(39millionvehicles,740billionvkt);VehicleefficiencybasedonCommitteeonClimate
Changemodelling
- 14. 14
Threebroadtypesofcharginglocationexistforplug-invehicles,with
unevenlevelofutilitybetweenprivateandpublicchargepoints
Source:ElementEnergy,OLEV,LondonPlan2011
Private–residentialcharging
•Mode3chargepoint
installedinprivategarages/
driveways
•MostcommonEV
recharginginfrastructurefor
motorcycles,carsandvans,
largelyduetocost(lower
powerrequirement)and
convenience(guaranteed
access)
•70%ofhouseholdshavea
garageoroff-streetparking
butthisisaslowas10%in
certainurbanareas
•LondonPlanrequiresat
least20%ofnewpremises
tobe“socketready”
Private-work/depotcharging
•Chargepointsinworkplace
carparks/depots
•Onlyrecharging
infrastructureforelectric
trucksandbuses;common
forcarsandvans
•Fittingseveralchargepoints
inonedepotcantriggerthe
needtoreinforcethelocal
network–anissuealready
reportedbysomeoperators
•LondonPlanrequiresat
least20%ofnewpremises
tobe“socketready”
Public/semi-publiccharging
•Chargepointinstalledon-
street,incarparks,at
retailers(e.g.dealerships
supermarkets,restaurants),
hotels,highwaystations
•Generallylowlevelof
utilisation,withexceptions
(e.g.wherefreeparkingis
provided)
•Multipletypeofaccess
(variousnetworksinplace)
andpaymentmethods
(roamingnotwidespread)
•TheNationalChargepoint
Registryisafreedatabase
ofpublicchargepoints,
publishedbyOLEV
- 15. 15
Homechargingisthecheapestandmostconvenientwaytocharge
anelectriccar,withpotentialtoreachc.19millionhouseholds
Technology
Cost
Utilityand
potential
Usageprofile
Vehiclesarepluggedinmostlyatnight
Currently3-7kWMode3chargepointwithembeddedsafetyfeatures,can
betethered
Futuretechnology:wirelesspads?
Unitcostincludinginstallationupto£1k(and75%/£700grantavailablefor
accreditedsuppliers).MostOEMshavepartnershipwithanutility/installer
At10p/kWh,chargingcostsc.2p/kmforamediumsizedcar
Certaintyofaccesstochargingisapre-requisitetopurchasinganEV.Over
90%ofEVbuyershaveaccesstohomecharging
c.19million(70%)householdshaveoff-streetparkingintheUK
Source:ElementEnergy,DfT,OLEV,UKPN,Zap-map.1UKPNLowCarbonLondon2014(weekdaydemand,averageover54
EVs,withmostly3kWchargepoints).Existinganalysissamplesizesaresmallbutwillsignificantlyincreaseinfutureyears.
3
am
6
am
9
am
12
pm
3
pm
6
pm
9
pm
12
am
Averagedailydomesticdemandprofile1
Diversifiedpeak0.33kW,demand3.68kWh
Peakdemandat9.30pm
Number
installed
3,842
25,000
9,866
4,573
Dec-14Apr-13Apr-14
EVsalescumulative
DomesticCP
CorrelationbetweenearlydomesticCPstatsand
salesofelectriccarsandvanssuggestover30,000
domesticCPshavebeeninstalledbyFeb2015
- 16. 16
DepotchargingisessentialforheavydutyvehiclesandsomelightEVs,
withpotentiallocalnetworkconstraintsmorelikelyinshortterm
Technology
Cost
Utilityand
potential
Usageprofile
Varieswithvehicletypes(morelimiteddata)
Typically,Mode3chargepointsat3or7kWusedforlightvehicles,
generallyMode4observedforHDVs(typicallyat50kW)
WirelesschargingforbusesbeingtrialledbyTfLinLondonandArriva
inMiltonKeynes
Unitcostexcludinginstallation£750-£5,000forMode3,upto£30kforMode4points
Installingseveralchargepointscantriggerachangeincapacitychargeandaneedtopay
towardsthelocalnetworkupgrade(£10sto100sthousand)
Depotchargingisessentialfordepotbasedvehicles
Dependingonfuturetechnofootprint&kW,samenumberoffleetvehiclesusingbunkered
dieselcouldintheorybechargingindepotsinfuture
Source:ElementEnergy,DfT,OLEV.1UKPNLowCarbonLondon2014(weekdaydemand,averageover16EVsconnected
to1-phase[mostly3kW]and10vansconnectedto3-phase[upto14kW])–profilesarescaledtofitinthesamegraph
00:0006:0012:0018:0023:30
Number
installed
1,861
12,000
6,980
3,343
Dec-14Apr-14Apr-13
EVsalescumulative
(fleetonly)
WorkplaceCP
RatiobetweenearlyworkplaceCPstatsandsalesof
fleetelectriccars&vanssuggesttheremightbec.
7,000CPsinworkplaces(someworkEVsrechargeat
employees’homesonly)
Peak0.18kW,demand1.53kWh-Peakat10am
Pooledcars&companycarsVans
Averagedailycommercialdemandprofile1
Peak1.99kW,demand17.4kWh-Peakat7pm
- 18. 18
Publicchargepointscomeinarangeofconnectorsandpowerrating,
withasignificantgrowthoffastandrapidunitsoverthelastyear
Varied–3-pin
sockets(c.25%),
Type1(disappearing
minority)andType2
(dominant,EU
standard)
c.£10kon-street
(TrafficOrder
needed,more
process)
<£2koffstreet
Slowchargepoints
3kWAC
Fastchargepoints
7to22kWAC
Rapidchargepoints
43kWAC-50kWDC
MostlyIEC62196-2
type2(EUstandard)
22kWrequires3-
phase
Costsfor7kW
similar/closeto3kW
Costsfor22kW:
£12k-15k
c.80%are7kW
IEC62196-2type2
for43kWAC
CHADeMOorCCS
Combofor50kWDC
Requires3-phase
Costsfor43kW-
50kW:c.£38-45k
Canbehigherif
networkupgradeis
needed
Outlet
Superchargers
135kWDC
200
867415
4,616
3,202
2,3422,019
Jan-15Jan-14
+44%
Jan-15Jan-14
+109%
+16%
Jan-14Jan-14Jan-15Jan-15
Source:ElementEnergy,OLEV,Zap-map.com,teslamotors.com.Costsareindicativeproduction+installation,connectioncosts
willvaryacrosssites.Numberinstalled:numberofoutlets(numberoflocationsislower,typically2outlets/socketperlocation)
Compatibleonly
withTeslacars
Requires3-phase
>>£50k
Highinstallation
costs(network
upgradelikely)
Number installed Cost
- 21. 21
Source:ElementEnergy,NationalTravelSurvey,petrolprices.comaccessed16/02/15,chargemasterplc.com
1-DutchCPaverageusagecalculatedfromsurveyanswers(“Resultatenenquêtesnelladen”byAgentschap,March2012;n=45)
Highratechargepoints,tocomplementhome/depotcharging,arethemostvaluablechargepointstoBEVdriversin
providing‘rangeextension’andenablinglongerjourneys.
ThebusinesscaseishowevercurrentlychallengingintheUK:
•Difficulttoattractpayinguserstoareaswhererapidchargingisofferedforfree(e.g.Ecotricitynetwork)
•Travelpatternsimplyalowlevelofusage:onlyc.2%ofdailytotaldrivingdistancesareover160km.Evena
higherestimateofeachBEVusingarapidchargepointonceevery2weeks1givesanoveralllowusage:
oC.12,000pureelectriccarsandvansontheroadtoday,chargingonceevery2weeks,gives860
chargingeventsadayonaverage
−Over870rapidchargepoints,that’s1chargingevent/outletperdayonaverage
−Over1,800rapid+fastchargepoints,that’s0.5chargingevent/outletperdayonaverage
•Observedtypicalcapexandopexsuggestafeeof£5/30mineventmustbecollected6timesadaytogeta
positiveNetPresentValueover10years(assuminglowcosts:£50kcapex&installation,£800/yearforback
office&maintenanceand7p/kWh,nocostforlandleasing)
•Highestfeeobservedforarapidpointis£7.5fora30mincharge(ChargemasterPAYGfare);this
correspondstoc.6p/km,equivalenttodieselcost(withdieselat£1.14/land5l/100kmconsumption)
•At50%capexfunding,paybackcanbeachievedwithinc.5years
•Insomeareas,installinga50kWloadormorecanleadtoexpensivenetworkconnectioncostsor/andupgrade
HowevercountrieswhereEVuptakeishigherprovideexamplesofcommerciallyrunrapidchargingnetworkse.g.
100%privatelyfundedFastnednetwork(Netherlands),Charge&Drive(Norwayandmore,partlypublicallyfunded)
Thebusinesscaseofpublicrapidchargingiscurrentlychallengingin
theUK,suggestinganeedforcontinuedcapexsupport
- 27. 27
Effortstodecarbonisethepowersectorcouldsee50-70%oftotal
electricitygenerationsourcedfromlowcarbonassetsby2035
Source:NationalGrid“UKFutureEnergyScenarios”(2014),HMTreasuryNationalInfrastructurePlan(2013),DECC
EnergyInvestmentReport(2014).CCS=CarbonCaptureandStorage,CHP=CombinedHeatandPower
6%
16%
0%
60%
18%
Imported
Renewable
Fossilfuel(withCCS)
Fossilfuel(withoutCCS)
Nuclear
TheUKgenerated34%oftotalelectricityconsumptionfromlowcarbonresourcesin2013
42%
56%
54%
32%
19%
14%
13%17%
48%
23%16%15%
12%11%
14%
9%
No
progression
Low
carbonlife
2%
0%
Slow
progression
2%
Gone
Green
1%
Renewable
Fossilfuel(withoutCCS)
Nuclear
Imported
Fossilfuel(withCCS)
NationalGridhasdevelopedmultipleelectricitygenerationsupplyscenarios
Newgeneratingcapacityinvestmentdecisions,
addressingincreaseddemandfromelectrification
ofheatandtransportsectorswillbegovernedby
cost,securityofsupplyandenvironmentalimpact
Scenariosconsidercombinationsofhighrenewable
deployment(onshorewind,solar,etc.)and/orhigh
lowcarbontechnologydeployment(CCS,CHP,etc.)
Innovationbreakthroughsforunproven
technologiesneeded(e.g.CCSandlarge-scale
marine)
TheUKhasinvested£45bninelectricitygenerationand
infrastructuresince2010
16%ofthiswasinvestedinrenewableassetsin2013alone,
a60%increaseon2012renewableinvestmentlevels
Overallenergyinvestmentmakesupc.60%oftheNational
InfrastructurePlan’sbudget(c.£470billion)–future
provisionisinhand
UKpredictedelectricitygenerationcomposition(2035)
UKactualelectricitygenerationcomposition(2013)
Seeappendixfor
scenariodescriptions
Totalgeneration:346TWh
Carbonintensity:470gCO2/kWh
634079238gCO2/TWh
406424331339TWh/year
-86%-91%-83%-49%Changecomparedto2013
- 29. 29
By2050,over80%ofelectricityfortransportcould
bedeliveredviaresidentialcharginginfrastructure
1On-streetmustincludeweatherproofing,access/paymentsystem,trafficmanagementorder,etc.
Source:EEfleetmodel,basedonuptakescenariospresentedinChapter1(Introductionandcontext)
27,672
4,844
21,988
9,032
Electricity(Moderatescenario)
Electricity(CCCtargetscenario)
Energydemand:
(GWh/year)
370
Electricity(Bothscenarios)
Domesticchargingmustbeprioritiseddueto>95%lowercost
relativetoon-streetcharging1
Driverswithoutoff-streetparking(c.30%homes)mustbe
supported
DeployrecommendationfromprojectssuchasMyElectric
Avenuetominimiselocalnetworkimpacts
MostEVdemandoccurringduringsystempeakhourscanbe
shiftedtowardslateeveningandnighthourswithout
detrimentallyaffectingEVstateofcharge
SinglevehiclehouseholdsareaminorityintheUK,butsignificant
numberofmultiEVhomesarenotexpecteduntilpost-2020
300k-370kCPoffandon-streetinstallationscouldbeexpected
by2020and3.9million(base)to7.2million(high)by2030
Ifnotaddressed,widespreadissue
oflackofoff-streetparking:based
oncurrenttrends,26million
householdswillhaveaccesstooff
streetparkingvs.20-25million
plug-invehiclesontheroad–but
off-streetprovisionislowinurban
areas,whereEVsaremost
incentivised/neededforairquality
By2050,multiEVhouseholdswill
becommonandupto10-15
millionCPscouldbeinstalledinon
andoff-streetresidentiallocations
Infrastructureinvestmentmustbeflexiblewithrespecttouptakeofotherlowcarbontransportfuels
Short/mediumtermLongterm
32,309
6,976
42,061
12,973500
Vehiclestock:
(Thousandvehicles)
Note,
electricity
demand
includesRE
EVs,PHEVs
andBEVs
202020302050
Bothscenariosexcludes
FCEVshareoftotalstock
- 30. 30
<10%ofelectricityfortransportcouldbedelivered
via3-7kWpowerdepotcharginginfrastructure
1,765
267
1,374
501
Electricity(CCCtargetscenario)
Electricity(Moderatescenario)
Energydemand:
(GWh/year)
23
Electricity(Bothscenarios)
Shiftworkandsynchronisedoperationofcommercialvansgivesan
unfavourablediversityfactor(c.85%)thereforerequiringgreater
needforsmartchargingmechanismstoalleviategridimpact
Moreover,synergiesbetweenregularfleetoperationandnetwork
managementsystemscouldbringmanybenefitstothegridbut
relationshipbetweenfleetoperatorsandDNOsneedtobe
improved
Availabilityofrapidchargingduringoperationalbreakscould
reducerangeanxietyandpotentiallyincreasefleetsubstitution
rates
8-10kCPdepotandworkplacecarparkinstallationscouldbe
expectedby2020and100-200kby20301
Batteryandchargepoint
efficiencyimprovementsare
unlikelytosignificantly
affectEVdemanddiversity,
insteadcharging
managementsolutionswill
berequired
By2050,operatorswith
largerEVfleetswillhave
fewerCPsperEV,therefore
400-550kCPinstallations
couldbeexpected
Infrastructureinvestmentmustbeflexiblewithrespecttouptakeofotherlowcarbontransportfuels
Short/mediumtermLongterm
1,920
530
4,129
97955
Vehiclestock:
(Thousandvehicles)
202020502030
Source:EEfleetmodel,basedonuptakescenariospresentedinChapter1(Introductionandcontext)
1Assuminganaverageofthreevehiclesperdepotorthreevehiclesperchargepoint
Note,
electricity
demand
includesRE
EVs,PHEVs
andBEVs
- 32. 32
Futurepublicchargingnetworksshouldfocusonhighchargerates
andshouldbevisibleandaccessiblebyalldriversandvehicles
SOURCE:CCC“Pathwaystohighpenetrationofelectricvehicles”(2013),Fastned
1Basedoncurrentandprojectedunitcostsfor50kWDCrapidchargepoints
Publicchargepointinfrastructure
NormalCPs(3-7kW)aresuitableforlongparkingtimes(e.g.overnightoratwork)since30-60kmofrangewould
requireatleastanhourofchargetime
RapidCPs(40+kW)aremoreexpensivebutcanchargemorevehiclesinagivenperiodandofferpracticalEV
rangeextensionopportunitiestousers,therebyenablingdriverstoachievelongdistances(>200km)travellingat
motorwayspeeds
2,100
1,100500100
2020201520302025
Totalrapid
charge
pointsites
Estimatedtotal
investment:
£300-£530m1
Rapidchargepoints(40+kW)cancreateausefulnetwork
Rapidchargepointsshouldbe:
•Wellmarketedtodrivers(e.g.clearsigns,uniformsignageacrosstheUK)
•Easytooperate(e.g.multisocketconnections,simplepaymentsystem,
etc.)
•Immediatelyaccessible(e.g.PAYG,developmentofdynamicbooking
systems,livestatusinformation)
Estimated2,100sites(10chargepointspersite)couldprovidenational
coverageby2030
BestproxyforsuchsitesistheprivatesectorledDutchFastnednetworkof
rapidCP‘forecourtstyle’stationsthatreportsahighlevelofusage
Slowerratesincities
Missingevidenceonutility
and/orbusinesscaseofpublic
chargingfornon-residentsin
cities(observedusageratelow
sofar,mismatchbetween
powerrateandparkingtime
etc.)
However,itisexpectedthat
someprivatebusinesseswill
(continueto)installcharge
pointsfortheirclientsand/or
visitors,e.g.retails,hotels,
restaurants
- 49. 49
20152050202020302025
2050202020302025
Solutionstoprovidecertaintyof
accesstohomesw/ooff-streetparking
Charging
infra-
structure
network
3-7kWoff-street
orsharedon-street
Millionsofchargepoints(mostlyresidential)willbeneededtosupport
widespreadEVdeployment,withuncertaintyoverchargingtechnologies
Rolloutofprimarilyconductiverapid(40+kW)chargingpointsinshortterm
Futuretypeandrateswilldependontechnologydevelopments
c.500
Residential
3/7/22kW
Cars/vans
>40kWCP(plugandwireless)
installedwithconcurrenttrialsof
alternativepowerdeliverysystems
Potentialrolloutofalternativepowerdeliverysystemse.g.
dynamicchargingonhighways,batteryswaporoverheadcables
Public
network
Technology
Depot/
workplaces
Cars/vans
Busesand
HGVs
EVrelatedDSR
commercial
arrangements
formalised
300-370k
4-7
million
10-15
million
8-10k
100-
200k
400-550k
4-5k20-25k
Uptoc.£20bnfortransmission
and£30-45bnfordistribution*
*TohandledecarbonisationofthegridanduptakeofEVs,heat
pumpsanddistributedgenerationsuchasPVpanels
c.2,200Dependanton
BEV/PHEVsplit
andchargingrates
Fullnational
coverage
Cost£20-40m
c.1,100
£130-
230m
Costestimatesarecumulativecostsfrom2015
CP=Chargepoint
£300-
530m
c.10charge
pointspersite
Introducesmartsystemsalongside
conventionalnetworkupgrades
Dashedlinesrepresent
highuncertainty
Majormilestone
/enabler
Investmentinelectricity
networks
(transmission&distribution)
–cumulativefrom2015
Legend
Totalsites
Cars
Vans
HDVs
Thousandvehicles
Projectionsarebasedonpolicy-
leduptakescenariospresented
onpage25
Datasupportedquantificationof
infrastructurerequirements
Infrastructureroadmap
Plug-inelectricvehiclesstock
20,000-
25,000
3,400-
4,000
130
4,000-
8,000
700-
1,300
20
1,500-
2,500
250-
400
10
300
60
<5
Many
sitesbut
variable
offer
Visibleand
accessible
networktoall
drivers
- 50. 50
Avisible,accessibleandreliablepublicchargingnetworkshouldbe
rolledoutforlightvehicles
EnduserexperienceofpublicchargepointsEconomicsofpublicchargepoints
12
Thebusinesscaseforpublicchargepoints
remainschallenging
Recommendations
Centralgov.:Continuefundingprogramandmonitor
progress,embedenduserexperiencecriteriain
supportprograms
LocalAuthorities:supportprogramswherelocal
fleetscanprovideabaseloadtochargepointsthat
canalsobeaccessibletothegeneralpublic;facilitate
exchangebetweenrelevantstakeholders(DNOs,end
user,chargepointoperators)tohelpoptimumsiting;
sharebestpractisefindingswithotherLAs
On-goingtrialprograms:Sharekeylearnings
relevanttobusinesscaseandenduserexperience
(e.g.currentRapidChargingNetworkproject)
Industry:DNOscouldcommunicateareasof
adequatenetworkcapacitytoinfrastructure
developerstoavoidhighconnectioncosts
Currentpublicinfrastructureisfragmentedwithseveral
operatorsofferingvariousaccessconditionsand
variablereportedreliability
Beyondthenumberofchargepoints,anetworkshould
meetsomecriteriatobeusefultoEVdrivers:
−Wellmarketedtodrivers(e.g.clearsigns,uniform
signageacrossthecountry)
−Easytooperate(e.g.multisocketconnections,simple
paymentsystem,etc.)
−Immediatelyaccessible(e.g.PAYG,dynamicbooking
systems,livestatusinformation)
Recommendations
R&D/industry/LAs:Improveandbuildexistingnetwork
anddevelopanationalplatformcompatiblewithmultiple
vehicletypestoremotelycommunicatewithpublic
infrastructure(e.g.dynamicbooking,simplepayment
systems,availabilitynotification)andconsiderjoiningcross
platformprojects(e.g.EMi3);embedcriteriainrelevant
fundingprograms
Source:ElementEnergy
- 52. 52
Mitigatingtheimpactofelectricvehiclesonthenetworkwillrequire
newtechnologiesandnewcommercialarrangements
Withoutmanagementofthechargingtime,EVscould(whenaddedtoothertechnologiessuchasheatpumps)
requirelargeinvestmentinnewdistributioninfrastructure(substations,cables)andpossiblynewgeneration/
interconnectioncapacity.TheSmartGridForumidentifiedthat‘smart’technicalandcommercialsolutionscould
saveintheorderof£15bnondistributionnetworkreinforcementcostsby2050
DNOswillneedinformationonEVlocationanduptaketoplaninvestmentandsmartsolutionsrolloutaccurately
Researchisneededtounderstandrelativeimpactof3kWvs7kWchargepointdeployments
Althoughlessstudiedbenefitstothegridcouldalsobeavailable:asflexibleloads,rechargingEVscouldprovide
importantgridbalancingservicestomaintaingridfrequency,tomanagesupplyandreducerenewablecurtailment
Recommendations
CentralGov.®ulators:supportDNOstoaccessgeographicallydisaggregatedEVuptakedata;
InstallersandDNOs:improveplatformforcompilingchargepointinstallationnotifications(asstipulatedbyIEC)
Regulators,electricitysuppliersandDNOs:developnewcommercialarrangementsandtariffsrequiredfortheuptake
ofsmartchargingsolutionsandforcustomerengagement[Ofgem’sLowCarbonFundalreadysupportstheseactivities]
On-goingtrialprograms:disseminatefindingsonlocalnetworkmanagementsolutionstoDNOsandrelated
stakeholders
R&Dbodies&DNOs:Investigatenetworkrelatedtopics:charging/demandmanagementtechnologies,Vehicle-2-Grid,
impactonbatterylife,co-locatingenergystoragedeviceswithrapidchargepointstoalleviatestrainonweakgrid
Impactonelectricitynetwork5
Refertothefullreportformoredetailonsmartsolutions
Sourceforquotedcosts:SmartGridForum,AssessingtheImpactofLowCarbonTechnologiesonUKpowerdistribution,2012
- 54. 54
References
−CCC,PathwaystohighpenetrationofEVs,2013
−DECC,EnergyconsumptionintheUK,2014
−DfT,RoadlengthsinGreatBritain,2013
−DUKESChapter3/4/5,2015
−ECF,FuellingEurope’sFuture:HowautoinnovationleadstoEUjobs,2013
−ElementEnergyforBirminghamCityCouncil,ACityBluePrintforLowCarbonFuelRefuellingInfrastructure,2015
−ElementEnergyforCLNR,Reviewofexistingcommercialarrangementsandemergingbestpractice,2013
−ElementEnergyforDfT,Ultralowemissionvanstudy,2012
−ElementEnergyfortheCCC,Infrastructureinalow-carbonenergysystemto2030:Transmission&distribution,2013
−ElementEnergy,Ecolaneandal.fortheCommitteeonClimateChange,PathwaystohighpenetrationofEVs,2013
−ElementEnergy,OptionsandrecommendationstomeettheREDtransporttarget,2014
−ETI,AnaffordabletransitiontosustainableandsecureenergyforlightvehiclesintheUK,2013
−Eurelectric,Smartcharging:steeringthecharge,drivingthechange,2015
−EuropeanParliamentandCouncil,Directive2009/30/EC,2009
−HMTreasury,NationalInfrastructurePlan,2013
−JRC,WTTanalysisoffutureautomotivefuelsandpowertrainsintheEuropeancontext,2014
−NationalGrid,FutureEnergyScenarios,2014
−Rapidchargenetwork.com,2015
−SmartGridForum,AssessingtheImpactofLowCarbonTechnologiesonUKpowerdistribution,2012
−UKPNforLowCarbonLondon,Impactandopportunitiesforwide-scaleElectricVehicledeployment,2014
−Zap-map.com,2015
−Zerocarbonworld.org,2015
- 59. 59
Overviewofthepowertrainoptionsconsideredandkeysources
CarsandvansBusesHGVsNRMM
HGV=HeavyGoodsVehicles,NRMM=NonRoadMobileMachinery
ICE:petrol,diesel,
LPG,(gas),(H2in
earlyyears)
EVs:BatteryEVs,
plug-inhybridEVs,
fuelcell(FCEVs)
TheCarbonPlan
andthe
Committeeon
ClimateChange’s
recommendations
H2MobilityPhase
1report,2013
Historictrendsfor
petrol/dieselsplit
ICE:diesel,
(bio)methane
EVs:BEV,PH/RE,
FCEV
(Liquidairfor
cooling/hybrid
power)
Currentand
announced
commercial
availability,policy
drivers
Alternative
Powertrainfor
Urbanbuses,2012
CCC–4thCarbon
BudgetReview
ICE:diesel,
(bio)methane,
(methanol)
EVs-inlighter
segmentsonly
Currentand
announced
commercial
availability
DfTHGVTask
Force
TSB-DfTLow
CarbonTruckTrial
CCC–4thCarbon
BudgetReview
ICE:diesel,LPG,
(gas),Liquidairfor
refrigerationunits
(Batteriesand
FuelCells–in
some
applications)
Dataonfuelusage
ofNRMMis
sparse
Morequalitative
approach
suggested
Parenthesesindicatesthepowertrain/fueloptionisexpectedtostaynicheinthe2050horizon RELEVANT
POWERTRAINS /FUELS
KEY SOURCES / INDICATORS
- 63. 63
Source:ElementEnergy,DfTStatisticsTableVEH0601,LowCVPLowCarbonEmissionBusMarketMonitoring(Jan2015),CCC,
4thCarbonbudget,20131-AlternativePowertrainforUrbanbusesstudy(2012)
30%
10%
60%
Singledeckbus/coach
Doubledeckbus/coach
Minibus
UKbusfleet,c.165,000vehicles:
UKlowemissionbuses(allsingleordoubledeck,
nomini-buses)
274
12785
18
2014
1,787
FCEV
BatteryEV
Biomethane
Micro-hybrid
Hybrid
ScenarioCurrentUKbusmarket
Werampedupthealternativefuelmarketsharefrom
2030,inlinewiththeEuropeanstudy1thatsuggeststhat
theTCOofbatteryandFCe-citybuseswillbecome
comparableandcompetitivewithdieselandCNGbusesby
20301
Weassume90%uptakeforZeroEmissionVehiclesby2050
Thisislowerthatthe100%FCEVsassumedintheCCC
projections,toreflectthefactthatdoubledeckerbuses
(andbusesinhighlyruralareas)mightrequiregas
0%
92%
60%
80%
10%
40%
5%
15%
15%5%
2020
100%
2050
50%
20402030
2%
10%
10%
4%
Newbusessalesscenario:
‘Diesel’referstoablendofB7
anddrop-inrenewablediesel,
aspertheFuelsRoadmapDiesel,includeshybridBEV
FCEV(Bio)methane
Buseshavemanypowertrainoptionsbutoverallsmallfuelusesowe
usedonlyonescenario,wherealltechnologiesseehighsales
- 64. 64
Source:ElementEnergy,DfTStatistics,BirminghamCityBlueprintforlowcarbonfuelsrefuellinginfrastructure,EEfor
BirminghamCityCouncil(2015),LowEmissionHGVTaskForce(2014),HMRC(2014),CCC,4thCarbonbudget,2013
29%32%
39%
>31tGVW-articulated
>8tto31tGVW-mostlyrigid
>3.5tto8tGVW-rigid
UKHGVfleet,c.460,000vehicles:
UKlowemissiontrucks-estimates
<100
c.1,000
2014
Methane
BatteryEV
94%79%
0%
45%
20%
5%5%
20%
10%1%
2050
0%1%10%
40%
20%15%
2020
1%
2040
100%
10%
25%
2030
Newtrucksalesscenario:
Gastrucksallover18tGVW,mostly
dualfuel(dieselandmethane)
Electrictrucksallunder18tGVW
FCEVlighttrucksatearlydemostage
‘Diesel’referstoablend
ofB7anddrop-in
renewablediesel,asper
theFuelsRoadmap
Diesel,includeshybrid
Methane
BEV
FCEV
DieselLPGdualfuel
ScenarioCurrentUKHeavyGoodsVehiclemarket
WetomodelledaHighAlternativeFuelUptakecasewhere
bothpureelectricandgastrucksreachasignificantsales
levelsintheirrespectivemarkets(lightandheavytrucks)
FCEVsalsocapturealargeshareofthemarket,asperthe
CCC’svisionoftheroleofhydrogen
ForHeavyGoodsVehicles,wetestedahighuptakeofbothelectric
(batteryandfuelcell)andgastrucks
- 65. 65
Non-RoadMobileMachinerytypicallyrefuelsinprivatedepots/premises
butthecaseofLPG,liquidairandhydrogenwereconsidered
Source:ElementEnergyanalysisbased,onDfTstatisticsrequestedinJan2015andNon-RoadMobileMachineryUsage,
LifeandCorrectionFactorsAEAforDt(2004),industryinputforLPGuseinforklift
10%
7%
23%
17%
42%
Forklifts
Otheroff-roads
Agriculturaltractors
RefrigerationunitsonHGVs
Portablegeneratorsets
Otheroff-roads:TelescopicHandlers,BackhoeLoaders,Excavators,Cranes,Bulldozers,Compressorsetc.
UKNRMMfleetforindustry,constructionand
agriculture,c.700,000unitsin2014:
(CouldtransitiontoLPG,BatteryandFuelCellpacksforsomeuses)
LPG,couldtransitiontoLiquidAir
UseofLPG(alreadyusedbyc.30%offorklifts)andbatteries
couldincrease,couldtransitiontohydrogen
(Limitedoptions,possibly(bio)methaneorhighblendbiodiesel)
Scenario
(LPG,limitedalternativefueloptions)
Beyondtheblendingofrenewabledrop-indieselindiesel,
optionsforcleanerfuelsare:
Wetoconsidered(qualitatively,consideringthe
lackofdisaggregateddataonfueluse)the
infrastructureimpactsof:
−AtransitiontoLiquidAirforHGV
refrigerationunits
−AnincreaseinLPG,batteryandhydrogenuse
forforklifts
- 69. 69
Appendix–Therearebroadlytwotypesofrefuellinginfrastructure
forliquidfuelsintheUK
Source:ElementEnergy,DfTModes3study(2011)
Largefleetoperatorsincludingpublic
transportoperators,hauliers,logistics
companies,forkliftoperatorstendtooperate
designatedrefuellingdepotssuitedtotheir
‘returntobase’operations
Suchfacilitiestendtobeprivateand
exclusivelyserviceasinglevehicletype
Mostbusesandheavygoodvehiclesrefuel
indepots–shareofdieselsuppliedthrough
depot:
90%forbuses,40%forcoaches
80%articulatedtrucks,45%rigidtrucks
Refuellingatprivatedepots:c.25%fuelsalesRefuellingatpublicforecourts:c.75%fuelsales
Generally,publicvehiclerefuelling(passenger
cars,vans,motorbikes,scooters)isfacilitatedby
oneoftheUK’sc.8,600forecourts
Refuellingforecourtsarepublicallyaccessible
andaregenerallyownedandoperatedbylarge
oilcompanies(e.g.Shell,BP,Esso,etc.),
independentretailersandsupermarketchains
