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IEEE PVSC presentation: Solar PV’s pivotal role in the great global energy transitionJl ieee pvsc

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Presentation by Jeremy Leggett, 15 June 2015

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IEEE PVSC presentation: Solar PV’s pivotal role in the great global energy transitionJl ieee pvsc

  1. 1. Solar  PV’s     pivotal  role  in     the  great  global       energy  transi5on                      Dr  Jeremy  Legge*  
  2. 2. Drama,c  changes  are  beginning                                 to  sweep  global  energy  markets  
  3. 3. Insurgency   cost  down   Incumbency   cost  up   Three  emerging  megatrends     are  par5cularly  important   Carbon     ac,on  
  4. 4.          the energy of nations RISK BLINDNESS AND THE ROAD TO RENAISSANCE JEREMY LEGGETT Jan 2004 – May 2013 May 2013 – Dec 2015 ….as  I  see  it  in  my  front-­‐line  eyewitness  chronicles  
  5. 5. 0%   25%   50%   75%   100%   1850   1870   1890   1910   1930   1950   1970   1990   2010   Percentage  of  U.S.  Energy  Consumption   50  years   Wood   Coal   Hydro   Oil   Natural   Gas   Renewables   75%   50  years   1920   75%   2020   Nuclear   50  years   X %?                        Source:  S  Dolezalek   System  change  in  energy  is  nothing  new  
  6. 6. 1913  1900   Spot  the  car          Spot  the  horse   ….and  disrup5on  can  happen  very  fast  
  7. 7. ….not  to  men,on  up  to  70%  cuts  by  2050,  35  years  from  now   White  House   June  2015    The  industrialised  na5ons  have  declared  the  endgame  on  
  8. 8. Insurgency   cost  down   Incumbency   cost  up   Three  emerging  megatrends   Carbon     ac,on  
  9. 9.                                                                                              Source:  Alliance  Bernstein,  April  2014   Solar  PV   average   in  2006   Fossil  fuel  versus  solar:  price   35  years  
  10. 10.                      The   “Terrordome”                                                                                      Alliance  Bernstein,  14  April  2014      2006   Fossil  fuel  versus  solar:  price  
  11. 11. Apple  global   ad  campaign   April  2014   Big  players   are  smelling   the  coffee  
  12. 12. Why  would  Apple  want  “every  company  to  copy”     boring  and  design-­‐lite  solar  farms?   Apple  Wants  to  Start  Producing   Cars  as  Soon  as  2020          18  Feb  2015  
  13. 13. Slough, UK UBS  Urges  Investors  to  Join  Solar  Revolu,on   Guardian,    27  August  2014   The  power  of  solar  and  storage   SSE  project  with   Solarcentury  rooTiles   2010  
  14. 14. Source:ce:   The  power  of  solar  and  storage   €  kWh        EU  EV  sales   EU   fleet   Lithium   baWery   costs     Solar  PV  roof  +  baWery  +  EV  price   Payback,  years   ROI   ROI    27  August  2014   “This  will  change  the     face  of  energy  markets”  
  15. 15.                                                              9  April  2014  Unlikely   players     are  paying   very  close   a*en,on  
  16. 16. 20  August  2014   ….er,  run     that  past     me  again?  
  17. 17. The  first  U-­‐turn  has  happened  in  the  u5lity  sector.     How  long  before  the  first  oil  &  gas  company?  
  18. 18. Source:  Bloomberg  NEF   The  rise  and  rise  of  renewables   GW     per  year   electricity   genera5on     addi5ons    
  19. 19. May  1  2015   Launch  of  Tesla  Energy   Week  1:  $800  million   of  indica,ve  orders  
  20. 20.    And  as  for  energy  efficiency….   The  best  way  to  shrink  the   mountain  of  transi,on….         ….and  the  best  way  to  create   energy  jobs  
  21. 21. Insurgency   cost  down   Incumbency   cost  up   Three  emerging  megatrends   Carbon     ac,on  
  22. 22. Source:  Douglas  Westwood,  from  Bloomberg   Selected  listed  interna5onal  oil  companies’  upstream  capex  and  crude-­‐oil  produc5on     BG,  BP,  COP,  CVX,  ENI,  OXY,  PBR,  RDS,  STO,  TOT,  XOM     Capex  versus  oil  produc5on  
  23. 23. Capex  trials  &  tribula5ons   Kashagan   $50  bn  &  coun,ng   Shell  in  the  Arc,c:   $5  bn  &  floundering   Petrobras  &  the  sub-­‐salt:   $221  bn  over  5  years  pleeeeease   Canada  &  the  tar  sands:   50  year  financing?  Really?  
  24. 24. Break-­‐even  oil  price:  assessing  danger  of  stranding   May  2014   $1.1  trillion  capex  at   risk  by  2025  >$95   2  degree  budget  
  25. 25. “A  trillion  dollars  of  zombie  investments”  in   planned  future  oil  projects  above  $70   December  2014  
  26. 26.  Shale  Drillers  Feast  on  Junk  Debt  to  Stay  on  Treadmill      Apr  30  2014   Is  the  U.S.  Shale  Boom  Going  Bust?   Apr  22  2014  
  27. 27. 1  December  2014   It  gets  worse….   …..an  enquiry  now  being  emulated  by  the  G-­‐20,  as  of  April  2015    
  28. 28. Coal  entering  structural  decline?  
  29. 29. Insurgency   cost  down   Incumbency   cost  up   Three  emerging  megatrends   Carbon     ac,on  
  30. 30. Copenhagen,  Dec  2009   Our  leaders  may   have  failed  in   2009,  but…..  
  31. 31. c.  100  na,ons  for  zero     net  carbon  by  2050   66%  of  emissions  are     down  to  90  companies   US  &  China  envoys  work  together  at  the  Lima  climate  summit,  December  2014   …..circumstances  are  different  now   And:  
  32. 32. ….and  as  for  Saudi  Arabia,  oil  consump(on  is  a  vital  factor  
  33. 33. Figure 1: Saudi Arabia’s oil balance on a business-as-usual trajectory Source: Chatham House research 2010. See Appendix 1 for assumptions and key sources. NGL = natural gas liquids 2 See Appendix 1 for our definition of ‘apparent consumption’. This is the figure given in BP (2011). It includes natural gas liquids (NGLs), international aviation fuel and marine bunker fuel. It differs from the figure given by Saudi Aramco, which would suggest around one-fifth of oil production is consumed domestically. -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2045 mb/d Oil consumption Saudi crude and NGLproduction Oil exports 2040 Consump,on              Exports   Saudi  crude  and  NGL  produc,on   2025   2030   ….and  the   proposed   solu,on?   Saudi  Arabia:  not  a  drop  to  export  by  before  2030  on  current  trends  
  34. 34.    “We  need  to  help  Saudi  Arabia   become  the  Saudi  Arabia  of  solar.”   A  US  intelligence  view     Source:  Wikileaks  
  35. 35. Solarcentury experience helping to build “the Terrordome” Early  demos:  UK’s  first  solar   electric  and  solar  hybrid  rooves  
  36. 36. UK’s  first  solar  electric                   tower  facade  
  37. 37. UK’s first solar street: S Yorkshire HA
  38. 38. Early  demos:  niche  applica,ons   working  with  architects  
  39. 39. Flat  roof   •   5,220  modules   •   35  km  string  cable   •   2.6  t  central  inverter   •   EPC  contract  signed  13/10/09     •   connec,on  of  system  on  31/12/09   …..the  en5re  process  took  10  weeks   Moving  towards  scale:     large  commercial  rooves    
  40. 40. Moving  towards  scale:  5MW   above  a  working  auto  factory  
  41. 41. Moving  towards  scale:  installing   above  working  railway  &  river  
  42. 42.        EnergyRoof  for  pitched  roofs   Large  numbers:  barns  
  43. 43. Scale:  solar  farms  up  to  50  MW  
  44. 44. Innova,on:  while  manufacturers   innovate  at  the  cell  level…..  
  45. 45. ….we  innovate  at  the  balance  of   systems  level,  in  mul,ple  ways  
  46. 46. Result:  a  genera,on  of     Solar  PV  ,les  and  slates  
  47. 47. UK’s first solar street: S Yorkshire HA Result:  a  genera,on  of     solar  PV  ,les  and  slates  
  48. 48. Result:  a  new  BIPV  megaslate  cost-­‐ compe,,ve  with  modules  
  49. 49. A  brand  family  with  a  purpose   Profits  for  a  purpose:  5%   dona,on  to  SolarAid  
  50. 50. 10  million  people  reached   900  local  jobs  created   890,000  kg  CO2  averted*   £230  million  in  savings*   2  billion  homework  hours  created*   *over  three  years       SolarAid’s  social  enterprise,    SunnyMoney   has  sold    ’  1.6  million  solar  lights   0   200000   400000   600000   800000   1000000   1200000   1400000   1600000   1800000   To  Apr  2015   Uganda   Malawi   Zambia   Kenya   Tanzania     Pla5num  GIIRS   Ra5ng     0   200000   400000   600000   800000   1000000   1200000   1400000   1600000   1800000   2006   2008   2010   2011   2012   2013   2014   2015   Cumula5ve  light  sales  
  51. 51. Peaceful  solar  revolu,on   and  educa,on:  a  microcosm   of  the  solar-­‐led  renaissance   that  is  within  our  grasp.  
  52. 52. Thank  you       .jeremy.legge*@solarcentury.com      www.jeremylegge*.net  

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