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©2015 Energy Technologies Institute LLP - Subject to notes on page 1
©2015 Energy Technologies Institute LLP
The informati...
©2015 Energy Technologies Institute LLP - Subject to notes on page 1
The UK energy challenge...
Tensions are increasing...
©2015 Energy Technologies Institute LLP - Subject to notes on page 1
Where will the UK energy system be in 2050?
Are we on...
©2015 Energy Technologies Institute LLP - Subject to notes on page 1
The UK energy challenge...
Demand is growing, assets ...
©2015 Energy Technologies Institute LLP - Subject to notes on page 1
What is the ETI?
The ETI is a public-private partners...
©2015 Energy Technologies Institute LLP - Subject to notes on page 1
What we do...
System level
strategic planning
Technol...
©2015 Energy Technologies Institute LLP - Subject to notes on page 1
ESME – ETI’s system design tool...
Example ESME charts
©2015 Energy Technologies Institute LLP - Subject to notes on page 1
“No emissions targets” and “-80% CO2 in 2050” are ver...
©2015 Energy Technologies Institute LLP - Subject to notes on page 1
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
GW...
©2015 Energy Technologies Institute LLP - Subject to notes on page 1
Prepare over next 10 years
creating platform for infr...
©2015 Energy Technologies Institute LLP - Subject to notes on page 1
Some options are more expensive…
0
100
200
300
400
50...
©2015 Energy Technologies Institute LLP - Subject to notes on page 1
Poor system optimisation doubles the cost of a 2050 U...
©2015 Energy Technologies Institute LLP - Subject to notes on page 1
Key decisions and cost implications
• Direction chang...
©2015 Energy Technologies Institute LLP - Subject to notes on page 1
What we need...
• Understanding of the drivers on fut...
©2015 Energy Technologies Institute LLP - Subject to notes on page 1
Where will the UK energy system be in 2050?
Are we on...
©2015 Energy Technologies Institute LLP - Subject to notes on page 1
* 2010 UK consumption divided by 60M Notes: 1. Passen...
©2015 Energy Technologies Institute LLP - Subject to notes on page 1
Source: UKERC (2011)
GB heat and electricity demand v...
©2015 Energy Technologies Institute LLP - Subject to notes on page 1
0
50
100
150
200
250
300 00:00
01:00
02:00
03:00
04:0...
©2015 Energy Technologies Institute LLP - Subject to notes on page 1
ETI technology programme areas
4.
Addressing UK Energ...
©2015 Energy Technologies Institute LLP - Subject to notes on page 1
Delivering innovation from strategic planning
to tech...
©2015 Energy Technologies Institute LLP - Subject to notes on page 1
©2015 Energy Technologies Institute LLP - Subject to notes on page 1
Informing policy to underpin market
developments
UK A...
©2015 Energy Technologies Institute LLP - Subject to notes on page 1
The next five years
©2015 Energy Technologies Institute LLP - Subject to notes on page 1
The next five years
©2015 Energy Technologies Institute LLP - Subject to notes on page 1
Where will the UK energy system be in 2050?
Are we on...
©2015 Energy Technologies Institute LLP - Subject to notes on page 1
For more information
about the ETI visit
www.eti.co.u...
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Creating an affordable low carbon energy system for the UK - Mike Colechin, ETI, at the UKCCSRC ECR Winter School 2015

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Creating an affordable low carbon energy system for the UK - Mike Colechin, ETI, at the UKCCSRC ECR Winter School 2015

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Creating an affordable low carbon energy system for the UK - Mike Colechin, ETI, at the UKCCSRC ECR Winter School 2015

  1. 1. ©2015 Energy Technologies Institute LLP - Subject to notes on page 1 ©2015 Energy Technologies Institute LLP The information in this document is the property of Energy Technologies Institute LLP and may not be copied or communicated to a third party, or used for any purpose other than that for which it is supplied without the express written consent of Energy Technologies Institute LLP. This information is given in good faith based upon the latest information available to Energy Technologies Institute LLP, no warranty or representation is given concerning such information, which must not be taken as establishing any contractual or other commitment binding upon Energy Technologies Institute LLP or any of its subsidiary or associated companies. Creating an affordable low carbon energy system for the UK Mike Colechin
  2. 2. ©2015 Energy Technologies Institute LLP - Subject to notes on page 1 The UK energy challenge... Tensions are increasing...
  3. 3. ©2015 Energy Technologies Institute LLP - Subject to notes on page 1 Where will the UK energy system be in 2050? Are we on a trajectory to deliver all aspects of UK government energy policy, i.e. an affordable, secure energy system delivering an 80% reduction in GHG emissions? • Where is the UK getting it right? • Where is the UK getting it wrong?
  4. 4. ©2015 Energy Technologies Institute LLP - Subject to notes on page 1 The UK energy challenge... Demand is growing, assets are aging, prices are rising... irrespective of a CO2 reduction target • 62m people ....................................................... growing to 77m by 2050 • 24m cars .......................................................... growing to 40m by 2050 • 24m domestic dwellings .................................... 80% will still be in use in 2050 total dwellings 38m by 2050 • Final users spent £124bn on energy in 2010 .... 9% of GDP • 2.4m English households in fuel poverty .......... average ‘fuel poverty gap’ £438 and increasing • Over 90GW generation capacity ....................... from 1MW to 3.9GW • Over 200 ‘significant’ power stations ................. average age >20 years • 50% of power generation capacity …………….. in 30 power plants average age 30 years
  5. 5. ©2015 Energy Technologies Institute LLP - Subject to notes on page 1 What is the ETI? The ETI is a public-private partnership between global energy and engineering companies and the UK Government. Targeted development, demonstration and de-risking of new technologies for affordable and secure energy Shared risk ETI programme associate ETI members
  6. 6. ©2015 Energy Technologies Institute LLP - Subject to notes on page 1 What we do... System level strategic planning Technology development & demonstration Delivering knowledge & innovation
  7. 7. ©2015 Energy Technologies Institute LLP - Subject to notes on page 1 ESME – ETI’s system design tool... Example ESME charts
  8. 8. ©2015 Energy Technologies Institute LLP - Subject to notes on page 1 “No emissions targets” and “-80% CO2 in 2050” are very different worlds… 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 GW Gas + CCS Nuclear Hydrogen Renewables GasCoal No targets -80% CO2 UKelectricitygenerationcapacity Coal + CCS No targets -80% CO2 Coal Gas Nuclear Renewables
  9. 9. ©2015 Energy Technologies Institute LLP - Subject to notes on page 1 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 GW Gas + CCS Nuclear Hydrogen Renewables GasCoal No targets -80% CO2 UKelectricitygenerationcapacity Coal + CCS No targets -80% CO2 Coal Gas Nuclear Renewables As long as we prepare NOW, decisions on 2050 can wait… but not for long
  10. 10. ©2015 Energy Technologies Institute LLP - Subject to notes on page 1 Prepare over next 10 years creating platform for infrastructure roll-out and growth 0 10 20 30 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Transport HS2 Schools £bn/year (NHS >£100bn p.a.) (MoD >£40bn p.a.) +£5bn p.a. +£15bn p.a. +£35bn p.a. (Energy >£120bn p.a.) By 2050 total energy system costs could be as much as £300bn p.a. Prepare Build Maintain ...and plan again Incremental capital investment in a ‘low-carbon’ energy infrastructure
  11. 11. ©2015 Energy Technologies Institute LLP - Subject to notes on page 1 Some options are more expensive… 0 100 200 300 400 500 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2010 £/Te CO2 UK Energy System CO2 Reduction (including aviation and shipping) Efficiency improvements Buildings, heating, vehicles (HDV and cars), industry, appliances, Energy storage and distribution Biomass to heat UK 2050 target >£300/Te Offshore Wind Light vehicles (fuel cell / electrification) Nuclear Bioenergy CCS Marine first appearances of major technologies, in order of increasing effective carbon price
  12. 12. ©2015 Energy Technologies Institute LLP - Subject to notes on page 1 Poor system optimisation doubles the cost of a 2050 UK low carbon energy system Additional cost of delivering -80% CO2 energy system NPV £ bn 2010-2050 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 No TargetsPerfect low cost route Practical low cost route No building efficiency packages No Nuclear No CCS No Bio No Offshore Wind No CCS No Bio No nuclear No offshore wind No building efficiency 1% of 2050 GDP 1% of 2050 GDP +£30bn pa+£6bn pa +£3bn pa in one year (2030) To meet carbon reduction targets we need to be prepared to pay at least 1% of GDP and we need to optimise the system or that rises quickly…
  13. 13. ©2015 Energy Technologies Institute LLP - Subject to notes on page 1 Key decisions and cost implications • Direction change between “no targets” and “-80% CO2” polarises in mid 2020s Delay in launch of major build programmes beyond mid 2020s leads to cost increases of ~£5bn p.a. as more costly alternatives are built• Key electricity decisions are national policy led programmes – Nuclear new build – CCS • plus… local and individual consumer decisions on other critical areas - with major implications for distribution level infrastructure – Heat delivery (gas, electricity, biomass, district heating) – Transport (liquid fuels, electricity, hydrogen) There are logical asset replacements (technically and financially) that ensure security, sustainability and lowest system cost Nuclear Gas Bioenergy feedstock's (for heat and power) CCS (fossil and biomass fuels) Efficiency improvement (transport and buildings) Offshore renewables all “no regrets” choices for the next 10 years
  14. 14. ©2015 Energy Technologies Institute LLP - Subject to notes on page 1 What we need... • Understanding of the drivers on future development – Costs – Supply capability and capacity (in a global market) – Infrastructure decisions – Investor requirements – Consumer needs/desires • Clear market and value opportunities for investors and consumers • Supportive and stable policy • Consumer support But... the future remains uncertain and we need an energy system design that allows for this • Ready to make informed choices • A system that creates and retains optionality • Prepared for investment in a wide scale infrastructure roll-out • Innovate to drive down cost (technology and business models) • We need innovative incentives for industry to invest in the UK
  15. 15. ©2015 Energy Technologies Institute LLP - Subject to notes on page 1 Where will the UK energy system be in 2050? Are we on a trajectory to deliver all aspects of UK government energy policy, i.e. an affordable, secure energy system delivering an 80% reduction in GHG emissions? • Where is the UK getting it right? • Where is the UK getting it wrong?
  16. 16. ©2015 Energy Technologies Institute LLP - Subject to notes on page 1 * 2010 UK consumption divided by 60M Notes: 1. Passenger transport figure excludes international air travel (people in the UK) 2. Data excludes heavy industry 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 Space heating- domestic(Th) Space heating- commercial (Th) Waterheating- domestic(Th) Waterheating- commercial (Th) Processheating(Th) Cooking- domestic(Th) Cooking- commercial (Th) 14,000 passengerkm(Th) 4,250 GoodsTe km (Th) Lighting Appliances Motors Compressedair Ventilation/AC IT, etc Refrigeration Other Energy kWh p.a. Individual energy consumption in the UK*...
  17. 17. ©2015 Energy Technologies Institute LLP - Subject to notes on page 1 Source: UKERC (2011) GB heat and electricity demand variability (commercial & domestic - 2010)
  18. 18. ©2015 Energy Technologies Institute LLP - Subject to notes on page 1 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 00:00 01:00 02:00 03:00 04:00 05:00 06:00 07:00 08:00 09:00 10:00 11:00 12:00 13:00 14:00 15:00 16:00 17:00 18:00 19:00 20:00 21:00 22:00 23:00 Time of Day Other personal Entertainment Holidays/day trips Shopping Education Business Commuting Average hour = 100 Data source: Department for Transport (2005-2009 data, weekday journeys only) Road traffic density peaks at around 8am and 3pm
  19. 19. ©2015 Energy Technologies Institute LLP - Subject to notes on page 1 ETI technology programme areas 4. Addressing UK Energy Development Priorities: Efficiency Systems and technologies for reducing cost and improving buildings and transport Nuclear Building supply-chain capacity and financier confidence Gas A critical fuel for power heat, storage and potentially for transport CCS System demonstration for capture, transport and storage Offshore renewables Reducing cost Bioenergy Creating the science, technology and business knowledge base for decisions on how to use bioenergy crops
  20. 20. ©2015 Energy Technologies Institute LLP - Subject to notes on page 1 Delivering innovation from strategic planning to technology demonstration Knowledge building Developing technology Demonstrating technology and system solutions Bioenergy Projectprofiling waste arising's in the UK – this is now progressing through a Waste Gassification project
  21. 21. ©2015 Energy Technologies Institute LLP - Subject to notes on page 1
  22. 22. ©2015 Energy Technologies Institute LLP - Subject to notes on page 1 Informing policy to underpin market developments UK Advisory boards with ETI staff members Select committee appearances Responses to Government consultations Third party policy documents referencing ETI insights
  23. 23. ©2015 Energy Technologies Institute LLP - Subject to notes on page 1 The next five years
  24. 24. ©2015 Energy Technologies Institute LLP - Subject to notes on page 1 The next five years
  25. 25. ©2015 Energy Technologies Institute LLP - Subject to notes on page 1 Where will the UK energy system be in 2050? Are we on a trajectory to deliver all aspects of UK government energy policy, i.e. an affordable, secure energy system delivering an 80% reduction in GHG emissions? • Where is the UK getting it right? • Where is the UK getting it wrong?
  26. 26. ©2015 Energy Technologies Institute LLP - Subject to notes on page 1 For more information about the ETI visit www.eti.co.uk For the latest ETI news and announcements email info@eti.co.uk The ETI can also be followed on Twitter @the_ETI Registered Office Energy Technologies Institute Holywell Building Holywell Park Loughborough LE11 3UZ For all general enquiries telephone the ETI on 01509 202020.

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