"LLMs for Python Engineers: Advanced Data Analysis and Semantic Kernel",Oleks...
Forecasting
1.
2. FORECASTING
Forecasting is essential for a number of planning
decisions.
Long term decisions
New product introduction
Plant expansion
3. MEDIUM TERM DECISIONS
Aggregate production planning
Man power planning
Inventory policy
SHORT TERM DECISIONS:
• Production planning
• Scheduling of job orders
4. PLANNING PROCESS
A forecast of demand is an essential input for
planning.
System to be
managed
System
objective
s
Plan of
action
Constraints
budget/space
Resources
Men/materials
Demand forecast
5. METHODS OF FORECASTING
(A) subjective or intuitive methods
-opinion polls, interviews
-Delphi
(B) Methods based on averaging of past data
-moving averages
-exponential smoothing
6. (C) Regression models on historical data
-trend extrapolation
(D) Causal or economic models
(E) time- series analysis using stochastic models
- Box Jenkins Models
10. OPINION POLLS
Personal interviews
Eg: aggregation of opinion of sales representatives to obtain sales
forecast of a region.
Knowledge base (experience)
Subjective bias
Questionnaire method
Questionnaire design
Choice of respondents
Obtaining respondents
Analysis and presentation of results (forecasting)
Telephonic conversation
Fast
DELPHI
11. DELPHI
A structured method of obtaining responses from
experts
Utilizes the vast knowledge base of experts
Eliminates subjective bias and ‘influencing’ the
members through anonymity
Iterative in character with statistical summary at end
of each round (generally 3 rounds)
Consensus (or divergent view points) usually emerge at
the end of the exercise.