How Ireland's budget adjustment increased from €3 billion to €6 billion
1. From €3 billion to €6 billion
How did we get there?
Where will it get us?
2. 20,00040,00060,00080,000
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
Government Revenue
Government Spending
economic-incentives.blogspot.com
Source: Eurostat
Annual tax revenue and government expenditure
Government Accounts
3. 2030405060
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Government Spending
Government Revenue
economic-incentives.blogspot.com
Source: Department of Finance
Annual government revenue and expenditure, %GDP
Government Accounts
4. 40,00055,00070,00085,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Government Spending
Government Revenue
economic-incentives.blogspot.com
Source: Department of Finance
Annual government revenue and expenditure, €millions
Government Accounts
5. 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
GDP Projections Dec 2009
economic-incentives.blogspot.com
Source: Department of Finance
GDP at current market prices projected to 2014
GDP Projections
6. 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
GDP Projections Dec 2009
GDP Projections Nov 2010
economic-incentives.blogspot.com
Source: Department of Finance, Central Statistics Office
GDP at current market prices projected to 2014
GDP Projections
7. 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
GDP Projections Dec 2009
economic-incentives.blogspot.com
Source: Department of Finance
GDP at current market prices projected to 2014
GDP Projections
8. 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
GDP Projections Dec 2009
GDP Projections Dec 2009 with CSO 'revision'
economic-incentives.blogspot.com
Source: Department of Finance, Central Statistics Office
GDP at current market prices projected to 2014
GDP Projections
9. 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
GDP Projections Dec 2009
GDP Projections Dec 2009 with CSO 'revision'
economic-incentives.blogspot.com
Source: Department of Finance, Central Statistics Office
GDP at current market prices projected to 2014
GDP Projections
10. 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
GDP Projections Dec 2009
GDP Projections Nov 2010
economic-incentives.blogspot.com
Source: Department of Finance, Central Statistics Office
GDP at current market prices projected to 2014
GDP Projections
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Revised GDP Projections Dec 2009
GDP Projections Nov 2010
economic-incentives.blogspot.com
Source: Department of Finance, Central Statistics Office
GDP at current market prices projected to 2014
GDP Projections
11. 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
GDP Projections Nov 2010
economic-incentives.blogspot.com
Source: Department of Finance
GDP at current market prices projected to 2014
GDP Projections
12. 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
GDP Projections Nov 2010
GDP Projections Nov 2010 excluding 'extra' adjustment
economic-incentives.blogspot.com
Source: Department of Finance, Central Statistics Office
GDP at current market prices projected to 2014
GDP Projections
13. 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Revised GDP Projections Dec 2009
GDP Projections Nov 2010
economic-incentives.blogspot.com
Source: Department of Finance, Central Statistics Office
GDP at current market prices projected to 2014
GDP Projections
14. 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
GDP Projections Dec 2009 with CSO 'revision'
GDP Projections Nov 2010 excluding 'extra' adjustment
economic-incentives.blogspot.com
Source: Department of Finance, Central Statistics Office
GDP at current market prices projected to 2014
GDP Projections
15.
16.
17.
18.
19.
20.
21.
22. Dec-09 Nov-10
CURRENT BUDGET
Expenditure
Gross Voted Current Expenditure 55,183 55,000
Non-Voted (Central Fund) Expenditure 8,335 7,500
Gross Current Expenditure 63,518 62,500
less Expenditure Receipts and Balances 13,829 12,750
Net Current Expenditure 49,689 49,750
Receipts
Tax Revenue 32,800 31,750
Non-Tax Revenue 1,093 1,750
Net Current Revenue 33,893 33,500
Less Adjustment 2,000 2,000
CURRENT BUDGET BALANCE -13,797 -14,250
CAPITAL BUDGET
Expenditure
Gross Voted Capital 5,500 5,500
Non-Voted Expenditure 824 1,150
Gross Capital Expenditure 6,324 6,650
less Capital Receipts 476 250
Net Capital Expenditure 5,848 6,400
Capital Resources 1,629 1,500
CAPITAL BUDGET BALANCE -4,218 -4,900
EXCHEQUER BALANCE -18,015 -19,150
23. Moving Targets
Sticking to the 10% target it would allow a GGB
of €16.1 billion.
Changing the target to 9.3% means the
allowable (in the sense of the target) GGB can
be of the order of €15 billion.
Moving the goalposts sees another €1 billion
added to the planned adjustment.
24. From €3 billion to €6 billion
€1 billion as a result of changes to nominal GDP
– CSO revisions of GDP figures (€0.4 billion)
– Drag of increased adjustment (€0.3 billion)
– Reduced inflation expectations (€0.2 billion)
€1 billion due to continued deterioration of the
public finances
€1 billion due to reducing the GGB target from
10% to 9.3%.
€0 billion due to reduced growth forecasts.
25. 2030405060
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
EU Average
Ireland
economic-incentives.blogspot.com
Source: Eurostat
Annual government revenue, %GDP
Government Accounts
26. 2030405060
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
EU Average, %GDP
Ireland, %GNI
economic-incentives.blogspot.com
Source: Eurostat
Annual government revenue
Government Accounts
27. 2030405060
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
EU Average
Ireland
economic-incentives.blogspot.com
Source: Eurostat
Annual government expenditure, %GDP
Government Accounts
28. 2030405060
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
EU Average, %GDP
Ireland, %GNI
economic-incentives.blogspot.com
Source: Eurostat
Annual government expenditure
Government Accounts
