Development of HR services in Belgium during 2014 against the background of slow economic growth

1. « EUROPEAN ECONOMIC SLOWDOWN &
AUSTERITY MEASURES WEAKEN BELGIUM’S
ECONOMIC RECOVERY »
December 2014
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

2. BELGIAN ECONOMY GREW SLIGHTLY IN 3TH QUARTER*
+0,3%
INTERIOUR DEMAND SUPPORTS GROWING ACTIVITY
INCREASING ADDED VALUE
* Q3 ‘14/Q3 ‘12 = +0,9% | Source: NBB
-0.4%
-0.2%
0.0%
0.2%
0.2%
0.3%
0.6%
0.6%
0.8%
0.8%
0.8%
1.4%
2.6%
2.6%
Public Investment in fixed-assets
Employment
Supply Change
Added Value - Construction
Added Value - Services
GDP
Public Consumption
Private Consumption
Added Value - Industry
Interior Demand
Export
Import
Investment in Housing
Corporate Investment in fixed-assets
Q3 Components GDP-growth (Q/Q-1)
Q2 Components GDP-growth (Q/Q-1)
Q1 Components GDP-growth (Q/Q-1)
+ -
DECREASING PUBLIC INVESTMENT & CONSUMPTION
NEGATIVE TRADE BALANCE DESPITE GROWING EXPORT

3. Source: NBB
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
1|2007
3|2007
5|2007
7|2007
9|2007
11|2007
1|2008
3|2008
5|2008
7|2008
9|2008
11|2008
1|2009
3|2009
5|2009
7|2009
9|2009
11|2009
1|2010
3|2010
5|2010
7|2010
9|2010
11|2010
1|2011
3|2011
5|2011
7|2011
9|2011
11|2011
1|2012
3|2012
5|2012
7|2012
9|2012
11|2012
1|2013
3|2013
5|2013
7|2013
9|2013
11|2013
1|2014
3|2014
5|2014
7|2014
13|2013
15|2013
Consumentenvertrouwen | La confiance des consommateurs | Consumer Confidence
Ondernemersvertrouwen | La confiance des chefs d'entreprise | Business Confidence
INCREASING BUSINESS CONFIDENCE
VS DECREASING CONSUMER CONFIDENCE

4. 93,698
96,522
93,387
84,830
97,276
94,202
90,151
75,364
83,092
76,567
71,193
65,847
86,481
89,14288,622
84,011
104,666
108,692
100,562
88,247
98,545
95,223
84,964
82,767
86,83485,429
83,414
86,843
93,96593,768
89,794
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
Brussels
Wallonia
Flanders
STRONG RISE OF JOB OFFERS IN FLANDERS
(PLACED IN PES)
+1,2%
-2,6%
+10,2%
Belgium: +7,6%
Q/Q-4

5. 0.6%
0.4%
0.3%
0.1%
-0.3%
-0.2%
-0.2%
0.1%
0.2%
0.4%
0.4%
0.4%
0.4%
0.4%
0.2%
0.1%
0.1%
0.0%
-0.1%
-0.1%
-0.1%
-0.1%
0.1%
0.0%
0.1%
0.2%
0.1%
-0.4%
-0.3%
-0.2%
-0.1%
0.0%
0.1%
0.2%
0.3%
0.4%
0.5%
0.6%
0.7%
SMALL INCREASE OF EMPLOYMENT
Q/Q-1
NBB
Employment at record high: 4,719 million people at work in Belgium
Employment and population grow at a same pace
MORE JOBS THEN EVER

6. PERSISTING DEFLATION IN EARLY 2015
FAR BELOW THE 2% ECB-TARGET
Low inflation (based on consumption-index)
2014(e): +0,3%
2015(e): +0,3%
Impact on wages?
When will the pivotal index be crossed?
July 2015
(e) = estimate
-0.40%
-0.20%
0.00%
0.20%
0.40%
0.60%
0.80%
1.00%
1.20%
1.40%
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
May-14
Jun-14
Jul-14
Aug-14
Sep-14
Oct-14
Nov-14
Dec-14
Jan-15
Feb-15
Mar-15
Apr-15
May-15
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Consumption Index
Health-index

7. Source: NBB
DOWNWARD REVISED OUTLOOK FOR BELGIUM
Y2Y 2014 2015 2016
GDP +1,0% +0,9% +1,4%
Inflation 0,6% 0,8% 1,2%
Employment +18.000 +19.300 +25.200
Unemployment rate 8,5% 8,8% 8,7%
Economic activity in 2014 slowed down faster than expected due to dropback of the European
economies
2015:
Internal demand should stabilize
Absence of wage indexation will probably weigh on private consumption
Increasing profits should support a rise in corporate investment
Public austerity measures will lower public consumption
Inflation will stay low due to
V.A.T. cuts on energy
Measures with lowering effects on the cost of labour

8. TAW = Temporary Agency Work
THE FEDERGON TAW-INDEX INCREASES SLOWLY
150.0
170.0
190.0
210.0
230.0
250.0
270.0
290.0
01-07
03-07
05-07
07-07
09-07
11-07
01-08
03-08
05-08
07-08
09-08
11-08
01-09
03-09
05-09
07-09
09-09
11-09
01-10
03-10
05-10
07-10
09-10
11-10
01-11
03-11
05-11
07-11
09-11
11-11
01-12
03-12
05-12
07-12
09-12
11-12
01-13
03-13
05-13
07-13
09-13
11-13
01-14
03-14
05-14
07-14
09-14

9. TEMPORARY AGENCY WORK
GROWTH Q1+Q2+Q3 = +7,18%
+8,9%
+4,9%
+32,6%
* Total Blue collar White collar
Flanders +7,2% +8,1% +5,9%
Wallonia +7,5% +10,0% +3,5%
Brussels +6,1% +16,8% +2,7%
* Hours worked

10. SERVICES TO INDIVIDUALS
GROWTH Q1+Q2+Q3 = +3,43%
* Federgon Market
Belgium +3,43% -0,22%
Flanders +2,96% 0,83%
Wallonia +4,06% -2,98%
Brussels +4,21% 0,04%
1/09 2/09 3/09 4/09 1/10 2/10 3/10 4/10 1/11 2/11 3/11 4/11 1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 1/13 2/13 3/13 4/13 1/14 2/14 3/14
Market Q/Q-4
* Hours worked

11. PROJECTSOURCING
*GROWTH Q1+Q2+Q3 = +5,2%
Engineering +3,0%
Finance +3,2%
ICT -1,3%
Office +5,6%
Logistics, Medical, Science, Legal, HR +20,1%
1/10 2/10 3/10 4/10 1/11 2/11 3/11 4/11 1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 1/13 2/13 3/13 4/13 1/14 2/14 3/14
Q/Q-4
* Hours worked

12. INTERIM MANAGEMENT
*GROWTH Q1+Q2+Q3 = +12,0%
General +24,1%
HR +5,2%
Logistics & Production -30,2%
Finance & Legal +27,0%
ICT +27,9%
Other -30,7%
6.50% 7.20% 1.20%
-2.80%
-9.80% -9.20%
-6.70%
7.60%
11.60%
14.90%
17.40%
1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 1/13 2/13 3/13 4/13 1/14 2/14 3/14
Q/Q-4
* Missions

13. OUTPLACEMENT
*GROWTH Q1+Q2+Q3 = -6,5%
Individual dismissal +1,9%
Collectif dismissal -10,5%
Multiple dismissal -38,5%
1/11 2/11 3/11 4/11 1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 1/13 2/13 3/13 4/13 1/14 2/14 3/14
Q/Q-4
* Number accompaniments

14. RECRUITMENT, SEARCH & SELECTION
*GROWTH Q1+Q2+Q3 = +0,03%
Recruitment & Selection -1,8%
Evaluation & Assessment -0,3%
Coaching +5,9%
HR Consultancy +16,4%
-5.7%
-6.7%
-10.8%
-20.9%
-16.1%
-12.9%
-14.3%
-1.2% -2.9%
0.7% 2.6%
1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 1/13 2/13 3/13 4/13 1/14 2/14 3/14
Q/Q-4
* Turnover

15. TRAINING
*GROWTH Q1+Q2+Q3 = -1,0%
16.0%
35.3%34.2%
4.5%
1.8%
-20.6%
-5.4%
-19.0%
-14.6%-13.8%
-11.5%
-1.5%-0.2%
7.5%
-1.3%
-3.0%
-1.4%-2.6%
-8.1%
3.4%
-6.1%
-1.4%-2.6%-3.9%
-7.0%
8.6%
-5.2%
Q1
2008
Q2
2008
Q3
2008
Q4
2008
Q1
2009
Q2
2009
Q3
2009
Q4
2009
Q1
2010
Q2
2010
Q3
2010
Q4
2010
Q1
2011
Q2
2011
Q3
2011
Q4
2011
Q1
2012
Q2
2012
Q3
2012
Q4
2012
Q1
2013
Q2
2013
Q3
2013
Q4
2013
Q1
2014
Q2
2014
Q3
2014
Q/Q-4
* Turnover

16. RESEARCH & ECONOMIC AFFAIRS DEPARTMENT
PAUL VERSCHUEREN / THIBAUT PRINCEN
Havenlaan 86c bte 302 - 1000 Brussel
Avenue du Port 86c bte 302 - 1000 Bruxelles
Tel: 02/203 38 03
Fax: 02/203 42 68
stat@federgon.be
CONTACT