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Presentation to Institute of Directors on Q2 economic data

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National Accounts, Contract Manufacturing

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Presentation to Institute of Directors on Q2 economic data

  1. 1. Ireland’s Return to Growth: Statistical anomaly or real recovery?
  2. 2. 40,000 42,000 44,000 46,000 48,000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Quarterly GDP economic-incentives.blogspot.com Source: CSO, Quarterly National Accounts Seasonally adjusted Quarterly GDP at constant (2012) market prices Gross Domestic Product
  3. 3. -10.0 -5.0 0.0 5.0 10.0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Annual GDP Growth Rate economic-incentives.blogspot.com Source: CSO, Quarterly National Accounts Annual change of GDP at constant market prices per quarter Annual GDP Growth Rates
  4. 4. Economist’s Reaction • “The boom is back” • “This is the strongest growth rate recorded since the early 2000’s” • “...the economy is recovering really rapidly” • “Stonking” • “The strength of the recovery is now such that government does not need any additional austerity measures to fix the public finances” • “Taking all the factors into consideration, these latest numbers are gangbusters...easing the pressure on the fiscal front for Budget 2015...
  5. 5. Media Reaction • “Ireland's economy fastest growing in European Union” (The Guardian) • “Ireland leaves eurozone behind as exports boom” (The Telegraph) • “Ireland's Economy Surges Ahead of Eurozone” (WSJ) • “Ireland is a spending nation once again as Celtic Phoenix rises” (Irish Independent) • “Irish Economy Grows Annual 7.7%, Fastest Pace Since 2007” (Bloomberg) • “Irish economy charges ahead in the second quarter” (Reuters) • “Ireland returns to boomtime growth levels” (FT)
  6. 6. 32,000 34,000 36,000 38,000 40,000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Quarterly GNP economic-incentives.blogspot.com Source: CSO, Quarterly National Accounts Seasonally adjusted Quarterly GNP at constant (2012) market prices Gross National Product
  7. 7. 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 50,000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 GDP GNP economic-incentives.blogspot.com Source: CSO, Quarterly National Accounts Seasonally adjusted GDP and GNP at constant market prices Quarterly GDP and GNP
  8. 8. -12.0 -6.0 0.0 6.0 12.0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 economic-incentives.blogspot.com Source: CSO, Quarterly National Accounts Contribution of Domestic Demand and Net Exports to Real GDP Growth Contribution to Annual Growth Domestic Economy Net Exports
  9. 9. 32,000 34,000 36,000 38,000 40,000 42,000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 C + I + G economic-incentives.blogspot.com Source: Central Statistics Office Seasonally adjusted components of GDP at constant market prices Domestic Component of GDP
  10. 10. 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Consumption Investment Government economic-incentives.blogspot.com Source: CSO, Quarterly National Accounts Seasonally adjusted components of GDP at constant (2012) market prices Domestic Components of GDP
  11. 11. 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Consumption Investment Government economic-incentives.blogspot.com Source: CSO, Quarterly National Accounts Seasonally adjusted components of GDP at constant (2012) market prices Domestic Components of GDP
  12. 12. 30,000 34,000 38,000 42,000 46,000 50,000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Exports Imports economic-incentives.blogspot.com Source: CSO: Quarterly National Accounts Seasonally adjusted exports and imports at constant market prices Trade Components of GDP
  13. 13. 10,000 14,000 18,000 22,000 26,000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Service Imports Service Exports economic-incentives.blogspot.com Source: CSO, Quarterly National Accounts Quarterly exports at current market prices Services Exports and Imports
  14. 14. 10,000 14,000 18,000 22,000 26,000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Goods Exports Goods Imports economic-incentives.blogspot.com Source: CSO, Quarterly National Accounts Quarterly exports at current market prices Goods Exports and Imports
  15. 15. 10,000 14,000 18,000 22,000 26,000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Goods Exports Goods Imports economic-incentives.blogspot.com Source: CSO, Quarterly National Accounts Quarterly exports at current market prices Goods Exports and Imports
  16. 16. 10,000 14,000 18,000 22,000 26,000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Goods Exports Goods Imports economic-incentives.blogspot.com Source: CSO, Quarterly National Accounts Quarterly exports at current market prices Goods Exports and Imports
  17. 17. 10,000 14,000 18,000 22,000 26,000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Goods Exports: National Accounts Goods Exports: Trade Statistics economic-incentives.blogspot.com Source: CSO, Quarterly National Accounts & Trade Statistics Quarterly exports at current market prices Good Exports: National Accounts versus Trade Statistics
  18. 18. 10,000 14,000 18,000 22,000 26,000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 National Accounts Trade Statistics economic-incentives.blogspot.com Source: CSO, Quarterly National Accounts & Trade Statistics Quarterly exports at current market prices Good Exports: National Accounts versus Trade Statistics
  19. 19. -2,000 -1,000 0 1,000 2,000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 National Accounts Trade Adjustment economic-incentives.blogspot.com Source: CSO, Quarterly National Accounts & Trade Statistics Difference between Good Net Exports in Trade Statistics and QNAs Trade Adjustments in the National Accounts
  20. 20. 96 100 104 108 112 116 Jan 10 Jul 10 Jan 11 Jul 11 Jan 12 Jul 12 Jan 13 Jul 13 Jan 14 Jul 14 Value Index Volume Index economic-incentives.blogspot.com Source: Central Statistics Office Value and Volume of Retail Sales for All Businesses (Jan 2010 = 100) Retail Sales Index
  21. 21. 94 96 98 100 102 Jan 10 Jul 10 Jan 11 Jul 11 Jan 12 Jul 12 Jan 13 Jul 13 Jan 14 Jul 14 Value Index Volume Index economic-incentives.blogspot.com Source: Central Statistics Office Value and Volume of Retail Sales excluding Motor Trades (Jan 2010 = 100) Retail Sales Index excluding Motor Trades
  22. 22. -9.0 -6.0 -3.0 0.0 3.0 Jan 10 Jul 10 Jan 11 Jul 11 Jan 12 Jul 12 Jan 13 Jul 13 Jan 14 Jul 14 Value Index Volume Index economic-incentives.blogspot.com Source: Central Statistics Office Value and Volume of Retail Sales excluding Motor Trades Annual Changes in Retail Sales Index
  23. 23. 1,800 1,900 2,000 2,100 2,200 000s 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 economic-incentives.blogspot.com Source: Central Statistics Office, QNHS: Table QNQ03 Total employment 2008-2013, seasonally adjusted quarterly data Numbers Employed
  24. 24. Questions and Comments Welcome

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