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WMO GREENHOUSE GAS
BULLETIN
No. 12 | 24 October 2016
The State of Greenhouse Gases in the Atmosphere
Based on Global Observations through 2015
ISSN2078-0796
2015: Changes in greenhouse gases strongly
influenced by El Niño
In 2015, Earth experienced the start of a strong El
Niño event. El Niño events are natural fluctuations
of the climate system where unusually warm water
accumulates in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. El Niño
events are associated with abnormal weather patterns
such as strong storms in some places and droughts
or flooding in others. A typical El Niño event lasts
9 months to 2 years. This phenomenon is witnessed
roughly every 2–7 years, although such a significant
El Niño event had not occurred for the past 18 years.
The figure at left shows the multivariate El Niño/Southern
Oscillation (ENSO) index [1] that indicates the strength
of the El Niño events. The largest El Niño events since
1950 are shown. The 2015/2016 El Niño was one of the
eight strongest since 1950 and was associated with
16 consecutive months of record global temperatures [2].
With the exception of the years following the eruption of Mt
Pinatubo in 1991, there has been an increase in the growth
rates of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) following
El Niño events (figure at right). The plot is based on the
CO2 global growth rate as estimated from the National
Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) global
in situ network [3] with data starting in 1960. The periods
with the seven largest El Niño events since 1960 are
highlighted in blue.
The CO2 growth rate calculated using observations from
the WMO Global Atmosphere Watch (GAW) Programme
is larger than the average of the last 10 years, despite
evidence that global anthropogenic emissions remained
essentially static between 2014 and 2015. According
to the most recent data, increased growth rates have
persisted far into 2016, consistent with the expected
lag between CO2 growth and the ENSO index. It is
predicted that because of this, 2016 will be the first
year in which CO2 at the Mauna Loa Observatory
remains above 400 ppm(1) all year, and hence for many
generations [4].
Despite the increasing emissions from fossil fuel energy,
ocean and land biosphere still take up about half of
the anthropogenic emissions [5]. There is, however,
potential that these sinks might become saturated,
which will increase the fraction of emitted CO2 that
stays in the atmosphere and thus may accelerate the
CO2 atmospheric growth rate. During El Niño events,
the uptake by land is usually decreased. As during the
previous significant El Niño of 1997/1998, the increase
in net emissions is likely due to increased drought
in tropical regions, leading to less carbon uptake by
vegetation and increased CO2 emissions from fires.
According to the Global Fire Emissions Database [6],
CO2 emissions in equatorial Asia were 0.34 PgC(2) in
2015 (average for the period 1997–2015 is 0.15 PgC).
Other potential feedback can be expected from changes
other than El Niño itself, but rather related to large-
scale sea-ice loss in the Arctic, the increase in inland
droughts due to warming [7], permafrost melting and
changes in the thermohaline ocean circulation of which
El Niño is in fact a minor modulator.
WEATHER CLIMATE WATER
–2
–1
0
1
2
3
4
Index
Multivariate ENSO index (MEI) (NOAA , 2016) 
1957 1965 1972 1982 1986 1991 1997 2015
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
0.5
0
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
CO2
growthrate(ppmperyear)
CO2
global growth rate (Source: NOAA , 2016) 
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Pinatubo
Executive summary
The latest analysis of observations from the WMO Global
Atmosphere Watch (GAW) Programme shows that globally
averaged surface mole fractions(3) calculated from this in
situ network for carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and
nitrous oxide (N2O) reached new highs in 2015, with CO2 at
400.0±0.1 ppm, CH4 at 1845±2 ppb(4) and N2O at 328.0±0.1 ppb.
These values constitute, respectively, 144%, 256% and 121%
of pre-industrial (before 1750) levels. It is predicted that
2016 will be the first year in which CO2 at the Mauna Loa
Observatory remains above 400 ppm all year, and hence
for many generations [4]. The increase of CO2 from 2014 to
2015 was larger than that observed from 2013 to 2014 and
that averaged over the past 10 years. The El Niño event
in 2015 contributed to the increased growth rate through
complex two-way interactions between climate change and
the carbon cycle. The increase of CH4 from 2014 to 2015 was
larger than that observed from 2013 to 2014 and that averaged
over the last decade. The increase of N2O from 2014 to 2015
was similar to that observed from 2013 to 2014 and greater
than the average growth rate over the past 10 years. The
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
Annual Greenhouse Gas Index [8, 9] shows that from 1990
to 2015 radiative forcing by long-lived greenhouse gases
(LLGHGs) increased by 37%, with CO2 accounting for about
80% of this increase.
Introduction
Since pre-industrial times (before 1750), atmospheric
abundances of LLGHGs have risen considerably due to
emissions related to human activity. Growing population,
intensified agricultural practices, increase in land use and
deforestation, industrialization and associated energy use
from fossil sources have all led to the increased growth rate
of LLGHG abundances in recent years.
It is extremely likely that these increases have led to the
global warming that the world is now experiencing [5]. It
is also likely that the Earth system will respond to climate
change with feedback, including changes in the magnitude
of natural fluxes of greenhouse gases. This feedback can
increase or decrease the atmospheric growth rate of these
Ground-based Aircraft Ship GHG comparison sites
a	 Assuming a pre-industrial mole fraction of 278 ppm for CO2,
722 ppb for CH4 and 270 ppb for N2O. Stations used for the
analyses numbered 125 for CO2, 123 for CH4 and 33 for N2O.
Figure 2. The GAW global net-
work for carbon dioxide in the
last decade. The network for
methane is similar.
Figure 1. Atmospheric radiative forcing, relative to 1750,
of LLGHGs and the 2015 update of the NOAA Annual
Greenhouse Gas Index (AGGI) [8, 9]
CO2 CH4 N2O
Global abundance in 2015
400.0±0.1
ppm
1845±2
ppb
328.0±0.1
ppb
2015 abundance relative
to year 1750a 144% 256% 121%
2014–2015 absolute
increase
2.3 ppm 11 ppb 1.0 ppb
2014–2015 relative
increase
0.58% 0.60% 0.31%
Mean annual absolute
increase during last
10 years
2.08
ppmyr–1
6.0
ppb yr–1
0.89
ppb yr–1
Table 1. Global annual surface mean abundances (2015)
and trends of key greenhouse gases from the WMO/GAW
global greenhouse gas monitoring network. Units are dry-
air mole fractions, and uncertainties are 68% confidence
limits [10]; the averaging method is described in [11].
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
1.4
AGGI (2015) = 1.37
AnnualGreenhouseGasIndex(AGGI)
Radiativeforcing(Wm–2
)
CO2
CH4
N2
O CFC-12 CFC-11 15 minor
2
gases and thus accelerate or de-accelerate the rate of climate
change. The direction and magnitude of this feedback is
quite uncertain, but a number of very recent studies hint
at a strong influence of future climate change on drought,
resulting in weakening of the land sink, further amplifying
atmospheric growth of CO2; that business-as-usual emissions
will lead to stronger warming than previously thought; and
that melting of Antarctica might lead to twice the maximum
sea-level rise thought possible in the last Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report, even when the action
agreed by the Conference of the Parties to the United Nations
Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) at its
twenty-first session (COP 21) to limit global temperature
increase at 2 oC will be reached [12, 13, 14].
Only closely observing the atmosphere with long-term,
high-accuracy measurements such as those in the GAW in
situ programme, supplemented by satellite observations
and numeric modelling, will allow for an understanding of
how global atmospheric composition is changing. These
observations will also inform as to whether the reduced
emissions arising from the COP 21 agreement have the desired
effect on atmospheric LLGHG abundances, and whether
success will be achieved in reducing these abundances in the
long run. This information will guide political decisions on
whether even greater mitigation efforts are needed because
of the effects of the Earth system feedback mechanisms.
Overview of the GAW in situ network observations
for 2015
This twelfth WMO/GAW Annual GHG Bulletin reports
atmospheric abundances and rates of change of the most
important LLGHGs – carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous
oxide – and provides a summary of the contributions of the
other gases. These three, together with CFC-12 and CFC-11,
account for approximately 96%(5) [15] of radiative forcing
due to LLGHGs (Figure 1).
The WMO Global Atmosphere Watch Programme (http://
www.wmo.int/gaw) coordinates systematic observations
and analysis of LLGHGs and other trace species. Sites
where greenhouse gases are measured in the last decade
are shown in Figure 2. Measurement data are reported by
participating countries and archived and distributed by the
World Data Centre for Greenhouse Gases (WDCGG) at the
Japan Meteorological Agency.
The results reported here by WMO WDCGG for the global
average and growth rate are slightly different from the results
that NOAA reports for the same years [3] due to differences
in the stations used, differences in the averaging procedure
and the time period for which the numbers are representative.
WMO WDCGG follows the procedure described in WMO/
TD-No. 1473 [11].
Table 1 provides globally averaged atmospheric abundances
of the three major LLGHGs in 2015 and changes in their
abundances since 2014 and 1750. Data from mobile stations,
with the exception of NOAA sampling in the Pacific (blue
triangles in Figure 2), are not used for this global analysis.
The three LLGHGs shown in Table 1 are closely linked to
anthropogenic activities and they also interact strongly with
the biosphere and the oceans. Predicting the evolution of
the atmospheric content of LLGHGs requires quantitative
understanding of their many sources, sinks and chemical
transformations in the atmosphere. Observations from GAW
provide invaluable constraints on the budgets of these and
other LLGHGs, and they are used to support the improvement
of emission inventories and to evaluate satellite retrievals of
LLGHG column averages.
3
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Year
N2
Ogrowthrate(ppb/yr)
(b)
1600
1650
1700
1750
1800
1850
1900
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Year
CH4
molefraction(ppb)
(a)
-5
0
5
10
15
20
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Year
(b)
CH4
growthrate(ppb/yr)
Year
0
1
2
3
4
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
CO2
growthrate(ppm/yr)
(b)
300
305
310
315
320
325
330
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Year
N2
Omolefraction(ppb)
(a)
330
340
350
360
370
380
390
400
410
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Year
(a)
CO2
molefraction(ppm)
Figure 3. Globally averaged CO2 mole
fraction (a) and its growth rate (b) from
1984 to 2015. Increases in successive
annual means are shown as columns
in (b).
Figure 4. Globally averaged CH4 mole
fraction (a) and its growth rate (b) from
1984 to 2015. Increases in successive
annual means are shown as columns
in (b).
Figure 5. Globally averaged N2O mole
fraction (a) and its growth rate (b) from
1984 to 2015. Increases in successive
annual means are shown as columns
in (b).
(Continued on page 6)
4
THE INTEGRATED GLOBAL
GREENHOUSE GAS INFORMATION SYSTEM
In December 2015, the United Nations Framework Convention
on Climate Change adopted the Paris Agreement, codifying
the idea of nationally determined contributions (NDCs). The
NDCs vary by nation, geographical region and economic
ability. Regardless of the strategies and measures applied,
the ability to implement long-term policies and manage
them effectively will require consistent, reliable and timely
information on the magnitude of greenhouse gas (GHG)
emissions and their trends over time.
In 2010, the atmospheric, carbon cycle and climate change
science communities produced a number of studies [16,
17, 18] on the potential for atmospheric GHG concentration
measurements and model analyses to independently
evaluate the accuracy of GHG emission inventories produced
according to the statistical methods outlined in the 2006
Guidelines of the IPCC Task Force on National Greenhouse
Gas Inventories (IPCC TFI) [19]. These reports concluded
that a full realization of this approach required additional
investment in research, increased density of well-calibrated
atmospheric GHG measurements and improved atmospheric
transport modelling and data assimilation capabilities.
In recognition of the progress that has been made on the
research, measurement and modelling front since 2010,
WMO has initiated the development of an Integrated Global
Greenhouse Gas Information System (IG3IS) [20]. WMO GAW
provides the standards for atmospheric measurements, and
IG3IS will establish, propagate and, over time, improve the
methodological standards for how atmospheric transport
inverse model analyses of atmospheric GHG concentration
measurements (“top-down”) can be combined with spatially
and temporally explicit socioeconomic emission inventory
data (“bottom-up”) to better inform and manage emission
reduction policies and measures.
The IG3IS will serve as an international coordinating
mechanism working with many WMO partners, such as the
United Nations Environment Programme, the International
Bureau of Weights and Measures and the Group on Earth
Observations. For the IG3IS initiative to succeed, it must
work hard to connect with customers and end users of its
information to understand their needs, earn their trust and
demonstrate the value of the information they will receive,
with the goal of increasingly effective emission-reduction
actions. Over time, the IG3IS framework must be capable of
promoting and accepting advancing technical capabilities
(for example, new satellite observations and sensors),
continually improving the quality of and confidence in such
information.
The implementation of IG3IS is now under way according
to a set of principles and three objective areas defined in
the Concept Paper [20]: (1) reduce uncertainty of national
emission inventory reporting to UNFCCC; (2) locate, quantify
and inform emitters of previously unknown emission
reduction opportunities; and (3) provide national and sub-
national entities with timely and quantified information
on the amounts, trends and attribution of their emissions
to support progress towards emission reduction goals.
Implementation of IG3IS is proceeding along two lines of
activity for each objective area: (1) the initiation of near-
term pilot projects that advance the capabilities of selected
methods and build confidence in the value of the information
with stakeholders; and (2) the preparation of systematic
plans for each objective area that will guide nations, states,
cities and private enterprises on the implementation of
these information systems. A growing number of successful
demonstrations for each objective area serve as the bedrock
for IG3IS implementation. The following selected examples
demonstrate the value of IG3IS.
Continuous methane measurements from four sites on the
Swiss Plateau and two additional sites were combined with
atmospheric transport simulations and an inverse modelling
framework in order to deduce the spatial distribution of
CH4 emissions in Switzerland and adjacent countries [21].
The best inverse estimate of total Swiss CH4 emissions
for the observation period March 2013 to February 2014 is
196±18 Gg yr–1.(6) This value is in close agreement with the
national total of 206±33 Gg yr–1 reported by Switzerland
to UNFCCC in 2015 for the years 2012 and 2013. The
combination of the bottom-up and top-down approaches
largely confirms the estimate of the reported emission
totals, with an uncertainty reduction on the reported value
from 16% to 9%.
The inversion system was not set up to optimize emissions by
category separately but to estimate the spatial distribution of
total emissions. However, information from the inversion on
the spatial distribution of the emissions provides qualitative
insights into the source categories that dominate in a given
region. A robust spatial pattern suggests increased emissions
estimated for north-eastern Switzerland (see illustration
at top of page 5). Possible candidates for these differences
are farming practices between this area and the rest of the
country, resulting in different per-head emissions from
livestock. Other potential anthropogenic and natural sources
may contribute to the unexpectedly high emissions from
this area. Further observations will be needed to verify
and better characterize this source. Both Switzerland and
the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland
include top-down information as part of their National
Reports to UNFCCC [22].
Global atmospheric concentrations of methane are continuing
to grow, but the global growth rate’s variability and attribution
to both natural and anthropogenic sources are not well
understood. Past studies reporting divergent estimates of
methane emissions from the oil and gas supply chain have
5
generated conflicting claims about the full greenhouse gas
footprint of this industry. Top-down estimates based on
large-scale atmospheric sampling often exceed bottom-up
estimates based on source-based emission inventories.
Work led by the Environmental Defense Fund and NOAA
[23] reconciles top-down and bottom-up methane emission
estimates in one of the major natural gas production basins in
the United States of America using replicable measurement
and data integration techniques. Based on the success
of these methods, IG3IS intends to prototype and refine
standard methods that can be propagated worldwide and
deliver greater confidence and accuracy in characterizing
methane emission sources from the oil and gas supply
chain. The capability to identify and quantify the small
proportion of high-emitting locations will guide oil and
gas system operators, as well as methane emissions from
waste management and agriculture, to new mitigation
opportunities.
The Lima–Paris Action Agenda of the Paris Agreement has
formalized a role for sub-national entities such as cities (large
urban source regions), which account for more than 70% of
fossil fuel CO2 emissions. Several studies have shown the
potential to better quantify the GHG emissions and trends
of cities with atmospheric measurement networks and high-
resolution inverse model analyses [24, 25]. The requirements
for atmospheric inversion are more demanding in the case
of fossil-fuel CO2 (FFCO2). However, there is evidence that
by combining inverse model analysis of a sufficiently dense
and well-distributed network of measurements with spatially
explicit prior knowledge of sources, urban emissions of FFCO2
can be better quantified [26] (see bottom illustration on this
page). While trends in total emissions of FFCO2 from cities
are valuable, city planners and managers will need sector-
specific information to guide them to emission reduction
opportunities. A recent study used an observation system
simulation experiment to demonstrate that denser networks
of lower-cost, medium-precision measurement sites (30 to
70 for Paris) can produce sector-specific, spatially explicit
information on urban emissions [27]. In emerging economies
that may have inadequate bottom-up statistical knowledge
of emissions from large urban source regions and from
natural landscapes, such atmospheric inversion approaches
can prove to be especially valuable sources of information.
The spatial distribution of the prior emission
inventory for Switzerland is shown in (a), posterior
emissions are shown in (b), and their absolute and
relative difference (posterior minus the prior) are
shown in (c) and (d), respectively. An irregular
inversion grid was used that exhibits high spatial
resolution close to the observation sites (marked
by X) and becomes coarser with distance from
these sites (source: taken from [21]).
Total flux estimates over a 30-day period, for the four 6-hour periods, for anthropogenic emissions (red), biogenic fluxes
(green) and the total (blue). The prior estimates are shown as open rectangles, while the posterior is shown as filled rectan-
gles. Uncertainty reduction is evident for the morning and afternoon time periods (source: taken from [25]).
Fluxes[MtCO2
month–1
]
0–6h 6–12h 12–18h 18–24h
The NOAA Annual Greenhouse Gas Index (AGGI) [8] in 2015
was 1.37, representing a 37% increase in total radiative forcing
(relative to 1750) by all LLGHGs since 1990 and a 1.3% increase
from 2014 to 2015 (Figure 1). The total radiative forcing by
all LLGHGs in 2015 corresponds to a CO2-equivalent mole
fraction of 485 ppm [9].
Carbon dioxide (CO2)
Carbon dioxide is the single most important anthropogenic
greenhouse gas in the atmosphere, contributing ~65%(5)
to radiative forcing by LLGHGs. It is responsible for ~81%
of the increase in radiative forcing over the past decade
and ~82% over the past five years. The pre-industrial level
of ~278 ppm represented a balance of fluxes between
the atmosphere, the oceans and the land biosphere.
Atmospheric CO2 reached 144% of the pre-industrial level
in 2015, primarily because of emissions from combustion
of fossil fuels and cement production (the sum of CO2
emissions was 9.8±0.5 PgC in 2014), deforestation and
other land-use change (0.9±0.5 PgC average for 2005–2014
[7]). The average increase in atmospheric CO2 from 2005
to 2014 corresponds to ~44% of the CO2 emitted by human
activity with the remaining ~56% removed by the oceans
and the terrestrial biosphere. The portion of CO2 emitted
by fossil fuel combustion that remains in the atmosphere
(airborne fraction) varies interannually due to the high natural
variability of CO2 sinks without a confirmed global trend.
The globally averaged CO2 mole fraction in 2015 was
400.0±0.1 ppm (Figure 3). The increase in annual means
from 2014 to 2015, 2.3 ppm, is larger than the increase from
2013 to 2014 and the average growth rate for the past decade
(~2.08 ppm yr–1). The higher growth rate in 2015 compared
with the previous years is due to increased natural emissions
of CO2 related to the most recent El Niño event.
Methane (CH4)
Methane contributes ~17%(5) to radiative forcing by
LLGHGs. Approximately 40% of methane is emitted into the
atmosphere by natural sources (e.g. wetlands and termites),
and about 60% comes from anthropogenic sources (e.g.
ruminants, rice agriculture, fossil fuel exploitation, landfills
and biomass burning). Atmospheric CH4 reached 256% of the
pre-industrial level (~722 ppb) due to increased emissions
from anthropogenic sources. Globally averaged CH4 mole
fraction calculated from in situ observations reached a new
high of 1845±2 ppb in 2015, an increase of 11 ppb with respect
to the previous year (Figure 4). The mean annual growth rate
of CH4 decreased from ~13 ppb yr–1 during the early 1980s
to near zero during 1999–2006. Since 2007, atmospheric
CH4 has been increasing again. Studies using GAW CH4
measurements indicate that increased CH4 emissions from
wetlands in the tropics and from anthropogenic sources at
mid-latitudes of the northern hemisphere are likely causes.
Nitrous oxide (N2O)
Nitrous oxide contributes ~6%(5) to radiative forcing by
LLGHGs. It is the third most important individual contributor
to the combined forcing. It is emitted into the atmosphere
from both natural (about 60%) and anthropogenic sources
(approximately 40%), including oceans, soils, biomass
burning, fertilizer use and various industrial processes.
The globally averaged N2O mole fraction in 2015 reached
328.0±0.1 ppb, which is 1.0 ppb above the previous year
(Figure 5) and 121% of the pre-industrial level (270 ppb).
The annual increase from 2014 to 2015 is greater than the
mean growth rate over the past 10 years (0.89 ppb yr–1). The
likely causes are an increase in fertilizer use in agriculture
and increased release of N2O from soils due to an excess
of atmospheric nitrogen deposition related to air pollution.
Other greenhouse gases
Sulphur hexafluoride (SF6) is a potent LLGHG. It is produced
by the chemical industry, mainly as an electrical insulator in
power distribution equipment. Its current mole fraction is
about twice the level observed in the mid-1990s (Figure 6 (a)).
The stratospheric ozone-depleting chlorofluorocarbons
(CFCs), together with minor halogenated gases, contribute
~12%(5) to radiative forcing by LLGHGs. While CFCs and most
halons are decreasing, some hydrochlorofluorocarbons
(HCFCs) and hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), which are also
potent greenhouse gases, are increasing at relatively rapid
rates, although they are still low in abundance (at ppt(7) levels).
6
0
5
10
15
20
25
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Molefraction(ppt)
Year
(a) SF6
and halocarbons
HCFC-141b
HCFC-142b
HFC-152a
SF6
Figure 6. Monthly mean mole fractions of sulphur hex-
afluoride (SF6) and the most important halocarbons: SF6
and lower mole fractions of halocarbons (a) and higher
ones of halocarbons (b). The numbers of stations used for
the analyses are as follows: SF6 (24), CFC-11 (23), CFC-12
(24), CFC-113 (23), CCl4 (21), CH3CCl3 (24), HCFC-141b (10),
HCFC-142b (14), HCFC-22 (14), HFC-134a (10), HFC-152a (9).
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Molefraction(ppt)
Year
(b) halocarbons CFC-12
CFC-11
HCFC-22
CH3
CCl3
CCl4
CFC-113 HFC-134a
This bulletin primarily addresses long-lived greenhouse
gases. Relatively short-lived tropospheric ozone has a
radiative forcing comparable to that of the halocarbons.
Many other pollutants, such as carbon monoxide, nitrogen
oxides and volatile organic compounds, although not
referred to as greenhouse gases, have small direct or
indirect effects on radiative forcing. Aerosols (suspended
particulate matter) are also short-lived substances that alter
the radiation budget. All gases mentioned herein, as well
as aerosols, are monitored by the GAW Programme, with
support from WMO Member countries and contributing
networks.
Acknowledgements and links
Fifty-one WMO member countries have contributed CO2
and other greenhouse gas data to the GAW WDCGG.
Approximately 46% of the measurement records submitted
to WDCGG are obtained at sites of the NOAA Earth System
Research Laboratory cooperative air-sampling network.
For other networks and stations, see GAW Report No. 206,
available at http://www.wmo.int/gaw [28]. The Advanced
Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment (AGAGE) contributes
observations to this bulletin. Furthermore, the GAW
monitoring stations contributing data to this bulletin, shown
in Figure 2, are included in the list of contributors on the
WDCGG web page (http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/gmd/wdcgg/).
They are also described in the GAW Station Information
System, GAWSIS (https://gawsis.meteoswiss.ch) supported
by MeteoSwiss, Switzerland.
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pages/prog/arep/gaw/documents/TD_1473_GAW184_web.pdf.
[12] Berg, A. et al. 2016: Land–atmosphere feedbacks amplify
aridity increase over land under global warming. Nature Climate
Change, 6(9):869–874, doi:10.1038/nclimate3029.
[13] Frölicher, T.L., 2016: Climate Response: Strong warming
at high emissions. Nature Climate Change, 6(9):823–824.
doi:10.1038/nclimate3053.
[14] DeConto R.M. and D. Pollard, 2016: Contribution of Antarctica
to past and future sea-level rise. Nature, 531:591–597, doi:10.1038/
nature17145.
[15]IPCC,2014:ClimateChange2014:SynthesisReport.Contribution
of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of
the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Core Writing
Team, R.K. Pachauri and L.A. Meyer, eds.). IPCC, Geneva, 151 pp.
[16] National Academy of Science, 2010: Verifying Greenhouse
Gas Emissions: Methods to Support International Climate
Agreements. The National Academies Press, Washington, D.C.,
doi: 10.17226/12883.
[17] Ciais, P. et al., 2010: GEO Carbon Strategy. GEO Secretariat,
Geneva/FAO, Rome, 48 pp.
[18] IPCC, 2010: Expert Meeting on Uncertainty and Validation of
Emission Inventories (H.S. Eggleston, J. Baasansuren, K. Tanabe
and N. Srivastava, eds.). Meeting Report of the Expert Meeting
on Uncertainty and Validation of Emission Inventories, Utrecht,
Netherlands, 23–25 March 2010, Pub. IGES, Japan.
[19] IPCC, 2006: 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse
Gas Inventories, http://www.ipcc-nggip.iges.or.jp/public/2006gl/.
[20] WMO, 2016. Integrated Global Greenhouse Gas Information
System (IG3IS), http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/arep/gaw/ghg/
IG3IS-info.html.
[21] Henne, S. et al., 2016: Validation of the Swiss methane
emission inventory by atmospheric observations and inverse
modelling. Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16:3683–3710, www.atmos-
chem-phys.net/16/3683/2016/.
[22] http://unfccc.int/national_reports/annex_i_ghg_inventories/
national_inventories_submissions/items/9492.php.
[23] Zavala-Araiza et al., 2015: Reconciling divergent estimates
of oil and gas methane emissions. PNAS, 112(51):15597–15602,
www.pnas.org/cgi/doi/10.1073/pnas.1522126112.
[24] Lauvaux, T. et al., 2016: High-resolution atmospheric
inversion of urban CO2 emissions during the dormant season
of the Indianapolis Flux Experiment (INFLUX). J. Geophys. Res.
Atmos., 121, doi:10.1002/2015JD024473.
7
[25] McKain, K. et. al, 2015: Methane emissions from natural
gas infrastructure and use in the urban region of Boston,
Massachusetts. PNAS, 112(7):1941–1946, doi: 10.1073/
pnas.1416261112.
[26] Bréon, F.M. et al., 2015: An attempt at estimating Paris area
CO2 emissions from atmospheric concentration measurements.
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15:1707–1724, http://www.atmos-chem-
phys.net/15/1707/2015/acp-15-1707-2015.html.
[27] Wu, L. et al., 2016: What would dense atmospheric
observation networks bring to the quantification of city CO2
emissions? Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16:7743–7771.http://www.
atmos-chem-phys.net/16/7743/2016/acp-16-7743-2016.html.
[28] WMO, 2012: 16th WMO/IAEA Meeting on Carbon Dioxide,
Other Greenhouse Gases, and Related Measurement Techniques
(GGMT-2011). Wellington, New Zealand, 25–28 October 2011
(G. Brailsford, ed.). GAW Report No. 206. Geneva.
Contacts
World Meteorological Organization
Atmospheric Environment Research Division,
Research Department, Geneva
E-mail: gaw@wmo.int
Website: http://www.wmo.int/gaw
World Data Centre for Greenhouse Gases
Japan Meteorological Agency, Tokyo
E-mail: wdcgg@met.kishou.go.jp
Website: http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/gmd/wdcgg/
8
JN161640
The Cape Grim Baseline Air Pollution Station (40.68°S,
144.69°E, 94 m a.s.l.) is a fully operational WMO GAW
global station. It sits atop the coastal cliff of the far
north-west corner of Tasmania, Australia. The prevail-
ing south-westerly winds have typically traversed over
long swathes of the Southern Ocean, having had mini-
mal or no contact with land or anthropogenic sources
for long time periods, providing an ideal location for
baseline sampling in the mid-latitudes of the southern
hemisphere. At other times, wind events from the north
(trajectories over the city of Melbourne), or from the
south-east (over rural agricultural land) allow for episodic
sampling under a range of circumstances. The station is
operated by the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM), Australia,
guided by a science programme jointly managed by
BoM and the Australia Commonwealth Scientific and
Industrial Research Organization. Collaborative partners
include the Australian Nuclear Science and Technology
Organization and the University of Wollongong, as well
as several international institutions and measurement
programmes. Science programmes include particles
and multiphase atmospheric chemistry, spectral and
passive radiation, ozone/reactive gases, carbon dioxide
and its stable isotopes, non-CO2 greenhouse gases, air
archive and radon. Opened in 1976, the station celebrates
40 years of continuous observations and science excel-
lence in 2016.
The Kosetice Observatory (49.58°N, 15.08°E, 534 m a.s.l.) is
operated by the Czech Hydrometeorological Institute. It is
located in the sparsely-populated agricultural countryside
in the Bohemian-Moravian Highlands. The Observatory
was established in 1988 as a station specialized in monitor-
ing and research of environmental quality at the regional
level in Czechia. The station is focused on air quality (NOx,
O3, SO2, CH4, CO, VOCs, PAHs, precipitation chemistry),
selected aerosol and meteorological measurement, among
many others. The Observatory has performed continuous
observations of CH4 since 1996 with a gas chromatogra-
phy. The station is now part of the European Integrated
Carbon Observation System network and measures CO2
and CH4 with updated equipment.
(1) 	 ppm = number of molecules of the gas per million (106) molecules
of dry air
(2) 	 1 PgC = 1 Petagram (1015 gram) of carbon
(3)	 Mole fraction is the preferred expression for abundance
(concentration) of a mixture of gases or fluids. In atmospheric
chemistry, it is used to express the concentration as the number
of moles of a compound per mole of dry air.
(4) 	 ppb = number of molecules of the gas per billion (109) molecules
of dry air
(5)	 This percentage is calculated as the relative contribution of the
mentioned gas(es) to the increase in global radiative forcing
caused by all long-lived greenhouse gases since 1750.
(6) 	 Gg = Gigagram (109 gram)
(7)	 ppt = number of molecules of the gas per trillion (1012) molecules
of dry air
Selected greenhouse gas observatories

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Organizzazione meteorologica mondiale, il report 2015

  • 1. WMO GREENHOUSE GAS BULLETIN No. 12 | 24 October 2016 The State of Greenhouse Gases in the Atmosphere Based on Global Observations through 2015 ISSN2078-0796 2015: Changes in greenhouse gases strongly influenced by El Niño In 2015, Earth experienced the start of a strong El Niño event. El Niño events are natural fluctuations of the climate system where unusually warm water accumulates in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. El Niño events are associated with abnormal weather patterns such as strong storms in some places and droughts or flooding in others. A typical El Niño event lasts 9 months to 2 years. This phenomenon is witnessed roughly every 2–7 years, although such a significant El Niño event had not occurred for the past 18 years. The figure at left shows the multivariate El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) index [1] that indicates the strength of the El Niño events. The largest El Niño events since 1950 are shown. The 2015/2016 El Niño was one of the eight strongest since 1950 and was associated with 16 consecutive months of record global temperatures [2]. With the exception of the years following the eruption of Mt Pinatubo in 1991, there has been an increase in the growth rates of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) following El Niño events (figure at right). The plot is based on the CO2 global growth rate as estimated from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) global in situ network [3] with data starting in 1960. The periods with the seven largest El Niño events since 1960 are highlighted in blue. The CO2 growth rate calculated using observations from the WMO Global Atmosphere Watch (GAW) Programme is larger than the average of the last 10 years, despite evidence that global anthropogenic emissions remained essentially static between 2014 and 2015. According to the most recent data, increased growth rates have persisted far into 2016, consistent with the expected lag between CO2 growth and the ENSO index. It is predicted that because of this, 2016 will be the first year in which CO2 at the Mauna Loa Observatory remains above 400 ppm(1) all year, and hence for many generations [4]. Despite the increasing emissions from fossil fuel energy, ocean and land biosphere still take up about half of the anthropogenic emissions [5]. There is, however, potential that these sinks might become saturated, which will increase the fraction of emitted CO2 that stays in the atmosphere and thus may accelerate the CO2 atmospheric growth rate. During El Niño events, the uptake by land is usually decreased. As during the previous significant El Niño of 1997/1998, the increase in net emissions is likely due to increased drought in tropical regions, leading to less carbon uptake by vegetation and increased CO2 emissions from fires. According to the Global Fire Emissions Database [6], CO2 emissions in equatorial Asia were 0.34 PgC(2) in 2015 (average for the period 1997–2015 is 0.15 PgC). Other potential feedback can be expected from changes other than El Niño itself, but rather related to large- scale sea-ice loss in the Arctic, the increase in inland droughts due to warming [7], permafrost melting and changes in the thermohaline ocean circulation of which El Niño is in fact a minor modulator. WEATHER CLIMATE WATER –2 –1 0 1 2 3 4 Index Multivariate ENSO index (MEI) (NOAA , 2016)  1957 1965 1972 1982 1986 1991 1997 2015 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 0.5 0 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 CO2 growthrate(ppmperyear) CO2 global growth rate (Source: NOAA , 2016)  1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Pinatubo
  • 2. Executive summary The latest analysis of observations from the WMO Global Atmosphere Watch (GAW) Programme shows that globally averaged surface mole fractions(3) calculated from this in situ network for carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) reached new highs in 2015, with CO2 at 400.0±0.1 ppm, CH4 at 1845±2 ppb(4) and N2O at 328.0±0.1 ppb. These values constitute, respectively, 144%, 256% and 121% of pre-industrial (before 1750) levels. It is predicted that 2016 will be the first year in which CO2 at the Mauna Loa Observatory remains above 400 ppm all year, and hence for many generations [4]. The increase of CO2 from 2014 to 2015 was larger than that observed from 2013 to 2014 and that averaged over the past 10 years. The El Niño event in 2015 contributed to the increased growth rate through complex two-way interactions between climate change and the carbon cycle. The increase of CH4 from 2014 to 2015 was larger than that observed from 2013 to 2014 and that averaged over the last decade. The increase of N2O from 2014 to 2015 was similar to that observed from 2013 to 2014 and greater than the average growth rate over the past 10 years. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Annual Greenhouse Gas Index [8, 9] shows that from 1990 to 2015 radiative forcing by long-lived greenhouse gases (LLGHGs) increased by 37%, with CO2 accounting for about 80% of this increase. Introduction Since pre-industrial times (before 1750), atmospheric abundances of LLGHGs have risen considerably due to emissions related to human activity. Growing population, intensified agricultural practices, increase in land use and deforestation, industrialization and associated energy use from fossil sources have all led to the increased growth rate of LLGHG abundances in recent years. It is extremely likely that these increases have led to the global warming that the world is now experiencing [5]. It is also likely that the Earth system will respond to climate change with feedback, including changes in the magnitude of natural fluxes of greenhouse gases. This feedback can increase or decrease the atmospheric growth rate of these Ground-based Aircraft Ship GHG comparison sites a Assuming a pre-industrial mole fraction of 278 ppm for CO2, 722 ppb for CH4 and 270 ppb for N2O. Stations used for the analyses numbered 125 for CO2, 123 for CH4 and 33 for N2O. Figure 2. The GAW global net- work for carbon dioxide in the last decade. The network for methane is similar. Figure 1. Atmospheric radiative forcing, relative to 1750, of LLGHGs and the 2015 update of the NOAA Annual Greenhouse Gas Index (AGGI) [8, 9] CO2 CH4 N2O Global abundance in 2015 400.0±0.1 ppm 1845±2 ppb 328.0±0.1 ppb 2015 abundance relative to year 1750a 144% 256% 121% 2014–2015 absolute increase 2.3 ppm 11 ppb 1.0 ppb 2014–2015 relative increase 0.58% 0.60% 0.31% Mean annual absolute increase during last 10 years 2.08 ppmyr–1 6.0 ppb yr–1 0.89 ppb yr–1 Table 1. Global annual surface mean abundances (2015) and trends of key greenhouse gases from the WMO/GAW global greenhouse gas monitoring network. Units are dry- air mole fractions, and uncertainties are 68% confidence limits [10]; the averaging method is described in [11]. 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.4 AGGI (2015) = 1.37 AnnualGreenhouseGasIndex(AGGI) Radiativeforcing(Wm–2 ) CO2 CH4 N2 O CFC-12 CFC-11 15 minor 2
  • 3. gases and thus accelerate or de-accelerate the rate of climate change. The direction and magnitude of this feedback is quite uncertain, but a number of very recent studies hint at a strong influence of future climate change on drought, resulting in weakening of the land sink, further amplifying atmospheric growth of CO2; that business-as-usual emissions will lead to stronger warming than previously thought; and that melting of Antarctica might lead to twice the maximum sea-level rise thought possible in the last Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report, even when the action agreed by the Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) at its twenty-first session (COP 21) to limit global temperature increase at 2 oC will be reached [12, 13, 14]. Only closely observing the atmosphere with long-term, high-accuracy measurements such as those in the GAW in situ programme, supplemented by satellite observations and numeric modelling, will allow for an understanding of how global atmospheric composition is changing. These observations will also inform as to whether the reduced emissions arising from the COP 21 agreement have the desired effect on atmospheric LLGHG abundances, and whether success will be achieved in reducing these abundances in the long run. This information will guide political decisions on whether even greater mitigation efforts are needed because of the effects of the Earth system feedback mechanisms. Overview of the GAW in situ network observations for 2015 This twelfth WMO/GAW Annual GHG Bulletin reports atmospheric abundances and rates of change of the most important LLGHGs – carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide – and provides a summary of the contributions of the other gases. These three, together with CFC-12 and CFC-11, account for approximately 96%(5) [15] of radiative forcing due to LLGHGs (Figure 1). The WMO Global Atmosphere Watch Programme (http:// www.wmo.int/gaw) coordinates systematic observations and analysis of LLGHGs and other trace species. Sites where greenhouse gases are measured in the last decade are shown in Figure 2. Measurement data are reported by participating countries and archived and distributed by the World Data Centre for Greenhouse Gases (WDCGG) at the Japan Meteorological Agency. The results reported here by WMO WDCGG for the global average and growth rate are slightly different from the results that NOAA reports for the same years [3] due to differences in the stations used, differences in the averaging procedure and the time period for which the numbers are representative. WMO WDCGG follows the procedure described in WMO/ TD-No. 1473 [11]. Table 1 provides globally averaged atmospheric abundances of the three major LLGHGs in 2015 and changes in their abundances since 2014 and 1750. Data from mobile stations, with the exception of NOAA sampling in the Pacific (blue triangles in Figure 2), are not used for this global analysis. The three LLGHGs shown in Table 1 are closely linked to anthropogenic activities and they also interact strongly with the biosphere and the oceans. Predicting the evolution of the atmospheric content of LLGHGs requires quantitative understanding of their many sources, sinks and chemical transformations in the atmosphere. Observations from GAW provide invaluable constraints on the budgets of these and other LLGHGs, and they are used to support the improvement of emission inventories and to evaluate satellite retrievals of LLGHG column averages. 3 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Year N2 Ogrowthrate(ppb/yr) (b) 1600 1650 1700 1750 1800 1850 1900 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Year CH4 molefraction(ppb) (a) -5 0 5 10 15 20 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Year (b) CH4 growthrate(ppb/yr) Year 0 1 2 3 4 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 CO2 growthrate(ppm/yr) (b) 300 305 310 315 320 325 330 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Year N2 Omolefraction(ppb) (a) 330 340 350 360 370 380 390 400 410 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Year (a) CO2 molefraction(ppm) Figure 3. Globally averaged CO2 mole fraction (a) and its growth rate (b) from 1984 to 2015. Increases in successive annual means are shown as columns in (b). Figure 4. Globally averaged CH4 mole fraction (a) and its growth rate (b) from 1984 to 2015. Increases in successive annual means are shown as columns in (b). Figure 5. Globally averaged N2O mole fraction (a) and its growth rate (b) from 1984 to 2015. Increases in successive annual means are shown as columns in (b). (Continued on page 6)
  • 4. 4 THE INTEGRATED GLOBAL GREENHOUSE GAS INFORMATION SYSTEM In December 2015, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change adopted the Paris Agreement, codifying the idea of nationally determined contributions (NDCs). The NDCs vary by nation, geographical region and economic ability. Regardless of the strategies and measures applied, the ability to implement long-term policies and manage them effectively will require consistent, reliable and timely information on the magnitude of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and their trends over time. In 2010, the atmospheric, carbon cycle and climate change science communities produced a number of studies [16, 17, 18] on the potential for atmospheric GHG concentration measurements and model analyses to independently evaluate the accuracy of GHG emission inventories produced according to the statistical methods outlined in the 2006 Guidelines of the IPCC Task Force on National Greenhouse Gas Inventories (IPCC TFI) [19]. These reports concluded that a full realization of this approach required additional investment in research, increased density of well-calibrated atmospheric GHG measurements and improved atmospheric transport modelling and data assimilation capabilities. In recognition of the progress that has been made on the research, measurement and modelling front since 2010, WMO has initiated the development of an Integrated Global Greenhouse Gas Information System (IG3IS) [20]. WMO GAW provides the standards for atmospheric measurements, and IG3IS will establish, propagate and, over time, improve the methodological standards for how atmospheric transport inverse model analyses of atmospheric GHG concentration measurements (“top-down”) can be combined with spatially and temporally explicit socioeconomic emission inventory data (“bottom-up”) to better inform and manage emission reduction policies and measures. The IG3IS will serve as an international coordinating mechanism working with many WMO partners, such as the United Nations Environment Programme, the International Bureau of Weights and Measures and the Group on Earth Observations. For the IG3IS initiative to succeed, it must work hard to connect with customers and end users of its information to understand their needs, earn their trust and demonstrate the value of the information they will receive, with the goal of increasingly effective emission-reduction actions. Over time, the IG3IS framework must be capable of promoting and accepting advancing technical capabilities (for example, new satellite observations and sensors), continually improving the quality of and confidence in such information. The implementation of IG3IS is now under way according to a set of principles and three objective areas defined in the Concept Paper [20]: (1) reduce uncertainty of national emission inventory reporting to UNFCCC; (2) locate, quantify and inform emitters of previously unknown emission reduction opportunities; and (3) provide national and sub- national entities with timely and quantified information on the amounts, trends and attribution of their emissions to support progress towards emission reduction goals. Implementation of IG3IS is proceeding along two lines of activity for each objective area: (1) the initiation of near- term pilot projects that advance the capabilities of selected methods and build confidence in the value of the information with stakeholders; and (2) the preparation of systematic plans for each objective area that will guide nations, states, cities and private enterprises on the implementation of these information systems. A growing number of successful demonstrations for each objective area serve as the bedrock for IG3IS implementation. The following selected examples demonstrate the value of IG3IS. Continuous methane measurements from four sites on the Swiss Plateau and two additional sites were combined with atmospheric transport simulations and an inverse modelling framework in order to deduce the spatial distribution of CH4 emissions in Switzerland and adjacent countries [21]. The best inverse estimate of total Swiss CH4 emissions for the observation period March 2013 to February 2014 is 196±18 Gg yr–1.(6) This value is in close agreement with the national total of 206±33 Gg yr–1 reported by Switzerland to UNFCCC in 2015 for the years 2012 and 2013. The combination of the bottom-up and top-down approaches largely confirms the estimate of the reported emission totals, with an uncertainty reduction on the reported value from 16% to 9%. The inversion system was not set up to optimize emissions by category separately but to estimate the spatial distribution of total emissions. However, information from the inversion on the spatial distribution of the emissions provides qualitative insights into the source categories that dominate in a given region. A robust spatial pattern suggests increased emissions estimated for north-eastern Switzerland (see illustration at top of page 5). Possible candidates for these differences are farming practices between this area and the rest of the country, resulting in different per-head emissions from livestock. Other potential anthropogenic and natural sources may contribute to the unexpectedly high emissions from this area. Further observations will be needed to verify and better characterize this source. Both Switzerland and the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland include top-down information as part of their National Reports to UNFCCC [22]. Global atmospheric concentrations of methane are continuing to grow, but the global growth rate’s variability and attribution to both natural and anthropogenic sources are not well understood. Past studies reporting divergent estimates of methane emissions from the oil and gas supply chain have
  • 5. 5 generated conflicting claims about the full greenhouse gas footprint of this industry. Top-down estimates based on large-scale atmospheric sampling often exceed bottom-up estimates based on source-based emission inventories. Work led by the Environmental Defense Fund and NOAA [23] reconciles top-down and bottom-up methane emission estimates in one of the major natural gas production basins in the United States of America using replicable measurement and data integration techniques. Based on the success of these methods, IG3IS intends to prototype and refine standard methods that can be propagated worldwide and deliver greater confidence and accuracy in characterizing methane emission sources from the oil and gas supply chain. The capability to identify and quantify the small proportion of high-emitting locations will guide oil and gas system operators, as well as methane emissions from waste management and agriculture, to new mitigation opportunities. The Lima–Paris Action Agenda of the Paris Agreement has formalized a role for sub-national entities such as cities (large urban source regions), which account for more than 70% of fossil fuel CO2 emissions. Several studies have shown the potential to better quantify the GHG emissions and trends of cities with atmospheric measurement networks and high- resolution inverse model analyses [24, 25]. The requirements for atmospheric inversion are more demanding in the case of fossil-fuel CO2 (FFCO2). However, there is evidence that by combining inverse model analysis of a sufficiently dense and well-distributed network of measurements with spatially explicit prior knowledge of sources, urban emissions of FFCO2 can be better quantified [26] (see bottom illustration on this page). While trends in total emissions of FFCO2 from cities are valuable, city planners and managers will need sector- specific information to guide them to emission reduction opportunities. A recent study used an observation system simulation experiment to demonstrate that denser networks of lower-cost, medium-precision measurement sites (30 to 70 for Paris) can produce sector-specific, spatially explicit information on urban emissions [27]. In emerging economies that may have inadequate bottom-up statistical knowledge of emissions from large urban source regions and from natural landscapes, such atmospheric inversion approaches can prove to be especially valuable sources of information. The spatial distribution of the prior emission inventory for Switzerland is shown in (a), posterior emissions are shown in (b), and their absolute and relative difference (posterior minus the prior) are shown in (c) and (d), respectively. An irregular inversion grid was used that exhibits high spatial resolution close to the observation sites (marked by X) and becomes coarser with distance from these sites (source: taken from [21]). Total flux estimates over a 30-day period, for the four 6-hour periods, for anthropogenic emissions (red), biogenic fluxes (green) and the total (blue). The prior estimates are shown as open rectangles, while the posterior is shown as filled rectan- gles. Uncertainty reduction is evident for the morning and afternoon time periods (source: taken from [25]). Fluxes[MtCO2 month–1 ] 0–6h 6–12h 12–18h 18–24h
  • 6. The NOAA Annual Greenhouse Gas Index (AGGI) [8] in 2015 was 1.37, representing a 37% increase in total radiative forcing (relative to 1750) by all LLGHGs since 1990 and a 1.3% increase from 2014 to 2015 (Figure 1). The total radiative forcing by all LLGHGs in 2015 corresponds to a CO2-equivalent mole fraction of 485 ppm [9]. Carbon dioxide (CO2) Carbon dioxide is the single most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas in the atmosphere, contributing ~65%(5) to radiative forcing by LLGHGs. It is responsible for ~81% of the increase in radiative forcing over the past decade and ~82% over the past five years. The pre-industrial level of ~278 ppm represented a balance of fluxes between the atmosphere, the oceans and the land biosphere. Atmospheric CO2 reached 144% of the pre-industrial level in 2015, primarily because of emissions from combustion of fossil fuels and cement production (the sum of CO2 emissions was 9.8±0.5 PgC in 2014), deforestation and other land-use change (0.9±0.5 PgC average for 2005–2014 [7]). The average increase in atmospheric CO2 from 2005 to 2014 corresponds to ~44% of the CO2 emitted by human activity with the remaining ~56% removed by the oceans and the terrestrial biosphere. The portion of CO2 emitted by fossil fuel combustion that remains in the atmosphere (airborne fraction) varies interannually due to the high natural variability of CO2 sinks without a confirmed global trend. The globally averaged CO2 mole fraction in 2015 was 400.0±0.1 ppm (Figure 3). The increase in annual means from 2014 to 2015, 2.3 ppm, is larger than the increase from 2013 to 2014 and the average growth rate for the past decade (~2.08 ppm yr–1). The higher growth rate in 2015 compared with the previous years is due to increased natural emissions of CO2 related to the most recent El Niño event. Methane (CH4) Methane contributes ~17%(5) to radiative forcing by LLGHGs. Approximately 40% of methane is emitted into the atmosphere by natural sources (e.g. wetlands and termites), and about 60% comes from anthropogenic sources (e.g. ruminants, rice agriculture, fossil fuel exploitation, landfills and biomass burning). Atmospheric CH4 reached 256% of the pre-industrial level (~722 ppb) due to increased emissions from anthropogenic sources. Globally averaged CH4 mole fraction calculated from in situ observations reached a new high of 1845±2 ppb in 2015, an increase of 11 ppb with respect to the previous year (Figure 4). The mean annual growth rate of CH4 decreased from ~13 ppb yr–1 during the early 1980s to near zero during 1999–2006. Since 2007, atmospheric CH4 has been increasing again. Studies using GAW CH4 measurements indicate that increased CH4 emissions from wetlands in the tropics and from anthropogenic sources at mid-latitudes of the northern hemisphere are likely causes. Nitrous oxide (N2O) Nitrous oxide contributes ~6%(5) to radiative forcing by LLGHGs. It is the third most important individual contributor to the combined forcing. It is emitted into the atmosphere from both natural (about 60%) and anthropogenic sources (approximately 40%), including oceans, soils, biomass burning, fertilizer use and various industrial processes. The globally averaged N2O mole fraction in 2015 reached 328.0±0.1 ppb, which is 1.0 ppb above the previous year (Figure 5) and 121% of the pre-industrial level (270 ppb). The annual increase from 2014 to 2015 is greater than the mean growth rate over the past 10 years (0.89 ppb yr–1). The likely causes are an increase in fertilizer use in agriculture and increased release of N2O from soils due to an excess of atmospheric nitrogen deposition related to air pollution. Other greenhouse gases Sulphur hexafluoride (SF6) is a potent LLGHG. It is produced by the chemical industry, mainly as an electrical insulator in power distribution equipment. Its current mole fraction is about twice the level observed in the mid-1990s (Figure 6 (a)). The stratospheric ozone-depleting chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), together with minor halogenated gases, contribute ~12%(5) to radiative forcing by LLGHGs. While CFCs and most halons are decreasing, some hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs) and hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), which are also potent greenhouse gases, are increasing at relatively rapid rates, although they are still low in abundance (at ppt(7) levels). 6 0 5 10 15 20 25 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Molefraction(ppt) Year (a) SF6 and halocarbons HCFC-141b HCFC-142b HFC-152a SF6 Figure 6. Monthly mean mole fractions of sulphur hex- afluoride (SF6) and the most important halocarbons: SF6 and lower mole fractions of halocarbons (a) and higher ones of halocarbons (b). The numbers of stations used for the analyses are as follows: SF6 (24), CFC-11 (23), CFC-12 (24), CFC-113 (23), CCl4 (21), CH3CCl3 (24), HCFC-141b (10), HCFC-142b (14), HCFC-22 (14), HFC-134a (10), HFC-152a (9). 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Molefraction(ppt) Year (b) halocarbons CFC-12 CFC-11 HCFC-22 CH3 CCl3 CCl4 CFC-113 HFC-134a
  • 7. This bulletin primarily addresses long-lived greenhouse gases. Relatively short-lived tropospheric ozone has a radiative forcing comparable to that of the halocarbons. Many other pollutants, such as carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxides and volatile organic compounds, although not referred to as greenhouse gases, have small direct or indirect effects on radiative forcing. Aerosols (suspended particulate matter) are also short-lived substances that alter the radiation budget. All gases mentioned herein, as well as aerosols, are monitored by the GAW Programme, with support from WMO Member countries and contributing networks. Acknowledgements and links Fifty-one WMO member countries have contributed CO2 and other greenhouse gas data to the GAW WDCGG. Approximately 46% of the measurement records submitted to WDCGG are obtained at sites of the NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory cooperative air-sampling network. For other networks and stations, see GAW Report No. 206, available at http://www.wmo.int/gaw [28]. The Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment (AGAGE) contributes observations to this bulletin. Furthermore, the GAW monitoring stations contributing data to this bulletin, shown in Figure 2, are included in the list of contributors on the WDCGG web page (http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/gmd/wdcgg/). They are also described in the GAW Station Information System, GAWSIS (https://gawsis.meteoswiss.ch) supported by MeteoSwiss, Switzerland. References [1] NOAA ESRL, 2016: Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI), http:// www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/. [2] NOAA, 2016: August marks ongoing trend of record- breaking heat for the globe, http://www.noaa.gov/news/ august-marks-ongoing-trend-of-record-breaking-heat-for-globe. [3] Dlugokencky, E. and P. Tans, 2016: NOAA/ESRL, http://www. esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/. [4] Betts, R.A. et al, 2016: El Niño and a record CO2 rise. Nature Climate Change, 6(9):806–810, doi:10.1038/nclimate3063. [5] Stocker, T.F. et al., 2013: Technical Summary. In: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Stocker, T.F., D. Qin et al., eds.). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, United States. [6] Giglio, L., J.T. Randerson and G.R. van der Werf, 2016: Global Fire Emissions Datbase, www.globalfiredata.org. [7] Le Quéré, C. et al. 2015: Global carbon budget 2015. Earth System Science Data, 7(2):349–396, doi:10.5194/essd-7-349-2015. [8] Butler, J.H. and S.A. Montzka, 2016: The NOAA Annual Greenhouse Gas Index (AGGI), http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ aggi/aggi.html. [9] NOAA ESRL, 2016: NOAA’s Annual Greenhouse Gas Index, http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/aggi/. [10] Conway, T.J. et al., 1994: Evidence for interannual variability of the carbon cycle from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/Climate Monitoring and Diagnostics Laboratory global air sampling network. J. Geophys. Res., 99:22831–22855. [11] WMO, 2009: Technical Report of Global Analysis Method for Major Greenhouse Gases by the World Data Centre for Greenhouse Gases (Y. Tsutsumi, K. Mori, et al.). GAW Report No. 184 (WMO/TD-No. 1473). Geneva, 29 pp, https://www.wmo.int/ pages/prog/arep/gaw/documents/TD_1473_GAW184_web.pdf. [12] Berg, A. et al. 2016: Land–atmosphere feedbacks amplify aridity increase over land under global warming. Nature Climate Change, 6(9):869–874, doi:10.1038/nclimate3029. [13] Frölicher, T.L., 2016: Climate Response: Strong warming at high emissions. Nature Climate Change, 6(9):823–824. doi:10.1038/nclimate3053. [14] DeConto R.M. and D. Pollard, 2016: Contribution of Antarctica to past and future sea-level rise. 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  • 8. [25] McKain, K. et. al, 2015: Methane emissions from natural gas infrastructure and use in the urban region of Boston, Massachusetts. PNAS, 112(7):1941–1946, doi: 10.1073/ pnas.1416261112. [26] Bréon, F.M. et al., 2015: An attempt at estimating Paris area CO2 emissions from atmospheric concentration measurements. Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15:1707–1724, http://www.atmos-chem- phys.net/15/1707/2015/acp-15-1707-2015.html. [27] Wu, L. et al., 2016: What would dense atmospheric observation networks bring to the quantification of city CO2 emissions? Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16:7743–7771.http://www. atmos-chem-phys.net/16/7743/2016/acp-16-7743-2016.html. [28] WMO, 2012: 16th WMO/IAEA Meeting on Carbon Dioxide, Other Greenhouse Gases, and Related Measurement Techniques (GGMT-2011). Wellington, New Zealand, 25–28 October 2011 (G. Brailsford, ed.). GAW Report No. 206. Geneva. Contacts World Meteorological Organization Atmospheric Environment Research Division, Research Department, Geneva E-mail: gaw@wmo.int Website: http://www.wmo.int/gaw World Data Centre for Greenhouse Gases Japan Meteorological Agency, Tokyo E-mail: wdcgg@met.kishou.go.jp Website: http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/gmd/wdcgg/ 8 JN161640 The Cape Grim Baseline Air Pollution Station (40.68°S, 144.69°E, 94 m a.s.l.) is a fully operational WMO GAW global station. It sits atop the coastal cliff of the far north-west corner of Tasmania, Australia. The prevail- ing south-westerly winds have typically traversed over long swathes of the Southern Ocean, having had mini- mal or no contact with land or anthropogenic sources for long time periods, providing an ideal location for baseline sampling in the mid-latitudes of the southern hemisphere. At other times, wind events from the north (trajectories over the city of Melbourne), or from the south-east (over rural agricultural land) allow for episodic sampling under a range of circumstances. The station is operated by the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM), Australia, guided by a science programme jointly managed by BoM and the Australia Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization. Collaborative partners include the Australian Nuclear Science and Technology Organization and the University of Wollongong, as well as several international institutions and measurement programmes. Science programmes include particles and multiphase atmospheric chemistry, spectral and passive radiation, ozone/reactive gases, carbon dioxide and its stable isotopes, non-CO2 greenhouse gases, air archive and radon. Opened in 1976, the station celebrates 40 years of continuous observations and science excel- lence in 2016. The Kosetice Observatory (49.58°N, 15.08°E, 534 m a.s.l.) is operated by the Czech Hydrometeorological Institute. It is located in the sparsely-populated agricultural countryside in the Bohemian-Moravian Highlands. The Observatory was established in 1988 as a station specialized in monitor- ing and research of environmental quality at the regional level in Czechia. The station is focused on air quality (NOx, O3, SO2, CH4, CO, VOCs, PAHs, precipitation chemistry), selected aerosol and meteorological measurement, among many others. The Observatory has performed continuous observations of CH4 since 1996 with a gas chromatogra- phy. The station is now part of the European Integrated Carbon Observation System network and measures CO2 and CH4 with updated equipment. (1) ppm = number of molecules of the gas per million (106) molecules of dry air (2) 1 PgC = 1 Petagram (1015 gram) of carbon (3) Mole fraction is the preferred expression for abundance (concentration) of a mixture of gases or fluids. In atmospheric chemistry, it is used to express the concentration as the number of moles of a compound per mole of dry air. (4) ppb = number of molecules of the gas per billion (109) molecules of dry air (5) This percentage is calculated as the relative contribution of the mentioned gas(es) to the increase in global radiative forcing caused by all long-lived greenhouse gases since 1750. (6) Gg = Gigagram (109 gram) (7) ppt = number of molecules of the gas per trillion (1012) molecules of dry air Selected greenhouse gas observatories