Beyond Mobility: Corridor Planning for the Bigger Picture AICP CM 1.5 Transit can do more than move people and generate revenue. More and more, cities are investing in transit to transform their communities and deliver on more expansive city-building objectives. Traditional transit goals are expanding to address the promise of livable communities, environmental stewardship, economic development and improved public health. Hear how two cities -- Seattle and Portland -- are shaping development scale and character with transit investment. Both cities are using parcel-based, pro forma-based tools to quantify the potential impact of transit projects. Join us for an interactive discussion about the capabilities and limitations of these tools. Hear their stories and learn how to evaluate your own projects against a broader set of goals using technical and market-based analysis. Moderator: Catherine Ciarlo, AICP, Senior Project Manager, CH2M Hill, Portland, Oregon Katherine Idziorek, AICP, LEED AP ND, Urban Designer, VIA Architecture, Seattle, Washington Antonio Gomez-Palacio, Principal, DIALOG, Toronto, Ontario Eric Engstrom, Principal Planner, City of Portland, Bureau of Planning & Sustainability, Portland, Oregon

1. Beyond Mobility
Planning
for
the
Bigger
Picture
Eric
Engstrom,
AICP
City
of
Portland,
OR
Rail~Volu>on
2014

2. The image cannot be displayed. Your computer may not have enough memory to open the image, or the image may have been corrupted. Restart your computer, and then open the file again. If the red x
still appears, you may have to delete the image and then insert it again. Expected Growth by 2035:
• 122,000 more
households
• 140,000 projected new
jobs
Comprehensive Plan

3. Comparing Different Growth Pa:erns
Default Growth Scenario Corridor Growth Scenario Hubs Growth Scenario

4. Comparing Different Growth Pa:erns

5. What makes a city healthy?
Parks & Nature Healthy Food
Watershed Health
Safety
Basic Public Services
Businesses & Amenities Social Connections
Active Transportation Quality Housing

6. Performance Measures
Complete Neighborhoods Tree Canopy
Access to Frequent Transit
Access to Family Friendly
Bike Network
Watershed Health
Housing Mix Vehicle Miles Traveled
Housing Affordability Mode Split
Risk of Displacement/
Gentrification
Carbon/GHG Emissions
Parks Access

8. City Shaping Tool

9. City Shaping Tool
Distribu>on
of
New
Housing
(2010-­‐2035)

10. Comp Plan Context – Form

11. Growth Strategy

12. What
is
the
streetcar
predic-ve
model?
An
analy>cal
tool
to
predict
real
estate
development
that
would
be
s>mulated
by
streetcar
and
related
investments.

13. What
the
model
tells
us…
1. Magnitude
of
new
development
s>mulated
by
public
investment
2. How
local
regula>ons
affect
development
feasibility
3. Es>mated
fiscal
and
economic
benefits
of
development

14. About the PredicHve Model
• Considers
ownership
paSerns,
zoning
paSerns
and
codes,
property
values,
local
market
data,
and
applica>on
of
suppor>ve
public
policy.
• Models
individual
pro-­‐forma
decisions
that
developers
make
• Spreadsheet-­‐based
• Developed
by
Johnson
Economics
• Peer
reviewed
• Requires
economic
exper>se
to
run

15. About the PredicHve Model
LIKELIHOOD
OF
DEVELOPMENT
MODULE
PREDICTED
MAGNITUDE
AND
FORM
OF
DEVELPOMENT
SUPPORTABLE
VALUE
CURRENT
VALUE
PRICING
COST
RETURN
ZONING
PREDICTED
DEVELOPMENT/
REDEVELOPMENT
RESIDUAL
PROPERTY
VALUE
MODULE

16. Research
on
cause
and
effect
is
limited

17. User inputs…

18. User inputs…

20. 10 Study Areas

21. 9.5%
2.2%
Average
Change
in
RMV
w.
Streetcar
Rela>ve
to
Baseline
1.0%
(Change
as
a
%
of
present
RMV)
0.8%
0.6%
0.4%
0.3%
0.2%
10.0%
9.0%
8.0%
7.0%
6.0%
5.0%
4.0%
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%
Macadam
Foster
Sandy
MLK
Gateway
Belmont
82nd
Broadway