Successfully reported this slideshow.
We use your LinkedIn profile and activity data to personalize ads and to show you more relevant ads. You can change your ad preferences anytime.

resilience.io Economics Webinar Presentation October 2014

3,235 views

Published on

Webinar by Stephen Passmore (The Ecological Sequestration Trsut) and Rembrandt Koppelaar (IIER/ICL) that will explain the http://resilience.io platform focusing on its core capability in providing cross-sector decision support for a city and its hinterland.

We will provide an overview of how the resource-economic simulation model operates and provides the evidence in city region decision-making for investment, procurement, policy making, and planning, to achieve more resilient solutions. We will focus on the interconnections between resource flows from human and ecological agents as well as the socio-economic activity of people and companies, and how these deliver regional outputs.

Areas that we will be addressing include:

Resource flows and socio-economic model interconnections.
Links to planning, procurement, policy making, and investment decisions.
Data acquisition, maintenance, and sharing cross-sector and regional interdependencies.

Published in: Government & Nonprofit
  • DOWNLOAD FULL BOOKS, INTO AVAILABLE FORMAT ......................................................................................................................... ......................................................................................................................... 1.DOWNLOAD FULL. PDF EBOOK here { https://tinyurl.com/y3nhqquc } ......................................................................................................................... 1.DOWNLOAD FULL. EPUB Ebook here { https://tinyurl.com/y3nhqquc } ......................................................................................................................... 1.DOWNLOAD FULL. doc Ebook here { https://tinyurl.com/y3nhqquc } ......................................................................................................................... 1.DOWNLOAD FULL. PDF EBOOK here { https://tinyurl.com/y3nhqquc } ......................................................................................................................... 1.DOWNLOAD FULL. EPUB Ebook here { https://tinyurl.com/y3nhqquc } ......................................................................................................................... 1.DOWNLOAD FULL. doc Ebook here { https://tinyurl.com/y3nhqquc } ......................................................................................................................... ......................................................................................................................... ......................................................................................................................... .............. Browse by Genre Available eBooks ......................................................................................................................... Art, Biography, Business, Chick Lit, Children's, Christian, Classics, Comics, Contemporary, Cookbooks, Crime, Ebooks, Fantasy, Fiction, Graphic Novels, Historical Fiction, History, Horror, Humor And Comedy, Manga, Memoir, Music, Mystery, Non Fiction, Paranormal, Philosophy, Poetry, Psychology, Religion, Romance, Science, Science Fiction, Self Help, Suspense, Spirituality, Sports, Thriller, Travel, Young Adult,
       Reply 
    Are you sure you want to  Yes  No
    Your message goes here

resilience.io Economics Webinar Presentation October 2014

  1. 1. resilience.io Webinar 28th October 2014 @resilienceIO
  2. 2. Agenda 1.Introduction – 5 mins Stephen Passmore Head of Platform Development - TEST 2.Model Processes and Functions – 30 mins Rembrandt Koppelaar Modelling research lead - IIER 3.Questions – 25 mins Enquiries: Alexander.Schmidt@ecosequestrust.org
  3. 3. Some Fundamentals • We are facing the combined challenges of climate change, population increase and urbanisation, increasing resource scarcity and its impact on our economies, society and environment. • This is a systemic challenge – we need to meet it with systems thinking and a coordinated response that stimulates closer collaboration between the public, private, knowledge and community sectors. • City-regions are on the front line and where systemic change has the potential to deliver the most rapid benefits.
  4. 4. The Ecological Sequestration Trust • TEST is a UK Charity formed in 2011 to speed up and scale up transformative urban/rural development towards a resilient, low carbon, resource efficient way of living. • We operate in the space between private, pubic, knowledge and community sectors to facilitate systems integration and to support collaborative decision making on policies and investment. • TEST has brought together world-leading modellers and sector experts to design and create the world’s first open-source, fully integrated resource and economics systems model for city-regions.
  5. 5. Resilience.io Platform Technical Brief on Model Architecture & Decision Support 28 October 2014 Rembrandt Koppelaar – Modelling Research Lead Institute for Integrated Economic Research (IIER)
  6. 6. A new approach to sustainability and resilience Now Where we could be with systems thinking and an urban-rural approach • Sequential approach in project evaluation • Conventional economic assessment dominates • Short term political and finance cycle perspective • Environment plane silo-ed (i.e. water-food-energy, urban and rural viewed separately) • Social benefit at the end of the line (not transparent) • INTEGRATED DESIGN • INTEGRATED PLANNING • ACCELERATED DEVELOPMENT DEVELOPMENT PLANNING DESIGN DESIGN PLANNING DEVELOPMENT
  7. 7. Approach to Sustainable Regions • A Regional Approach Is Fundamental • Gather regional data, develop regional knowledge, embed integrated regional planning, build regional capacity and shared confidence to act • Must unite economic, societal and environmental perspectives and shape interventions with a common/credible economic analyses
  8. 8. Overview • Linking Resource Flows & Socio-Economics • Simulation Modelling for Decision Insights • Building a Regional Demonstrator Model • Cross-Sector Collaboration
  9. 9. Components Overview Model core is a link between: • Resource conversions (material & energy balance + labour). • Agent based socio-economics (human activities & decisions). Both components are calibrated for each location and run with a set of selected “rules” for institutions and policies
  10. 10. Biophysical resource conversions • All activities across sectors can be described as resource conversions with labour inputs in space and time. • Systematic Resource Conversion Process Library across all sectors (14). • Hard-coded boundary description for allocation to spatial landscapes. • Modular setup to enable creation of local configurations. Source of top figure: Brandt et al. (2013) Calculating systems-scale energy efficiency and net energy returns : A bottom-up matrix-based approach. Energy 62. p.235-247 Source of bottom figure:: Kuosmanen, N., Kuosmanen,T., (2013). Modeling Cumulative Effects of Nutrient Surpluses in Agriculture: A Dynamic Approach to Material Balance Accounting. Ecological Economics. 90. p. 159-167.
  11. 11. Spatial resource conversion allocation Identification of Infrastructure: •Company or Household •Spatial location •Outputs produced (company) •Production typology (company) •Infrastructure typology Facilitates automated spatial allocation of resource conversions, labour & employee requirements, infrastructure material stocks, embodied flows. Distribution centre Meat process factory Football stadium Hospital Residences
  12. 12. Activity Based Consumption • Simulated people carry out activities in time and space. • Core activities include leisure, work, food consumption, travel, ‘maintenance’, and sleep. • Activities linked to Resource Consumption Baskets of Materials and Energy. • Simulated activity profile translated to resource consumption profile in space and time. Source of figures: Keirstead, J., Sivakumar, A., 2012. Using Activity-Based Modeling to Simulate Urban Resource Demands at High Spatial and Temporal Resolutions. Journal of Industrial Ecology. 16(6). pp. 889 – 900.
  13. 13. Agent Decision Socio-Economics PPeeoopplele GGoovveerrnnmmeenntt Institutions Institutions (Regulatory, Planning, Soft Policies, Culture) (Regulatory, Planning, Soft Policies, Culture) DDeeccisisioionnss MMaarrkkeettss Outcomes Outcomes (Production, Investment, Activities, Well-being as happiness and health, (Production, Investment, Activities, Well-being as happiness and health, etc.) etc.) DDeemmooggrraapphhicicss FFirirmmooggrraapphhicicss CCoommppaannieiess HHoouusseehhooldldss Labour Supply & Demand Supply & Demand Shape Shape Shape Make Make Make Influence Influence External World External World Regulate Supply & Demand
  14. 14. Agent interactions organised by markets • Exchange of Goods and Services from Transactions Markets. • Change in occupations and jobs from Labour Markets. • Change in Physical Capital from investment & property markets (Biosphere + Technosphere). • Change in Human Capital from Educational and Labour Markets (Degrees + Experience) as well as Health Markets. Transactions of Goods & Services Markets Labour Markets Agents as 1) Consumers 2) Processors Health 3) Owners Markets Investment & Property Markets Educational Markets
  15. 15. Linkages between Ecosystem Services and Human Well-being
  16. 16. Creating Visibility on Ecosystems, Environment & Health relationships • Simulated resource conversions result in flows of waste and pollution to air, soil, surface, water bodies in space and time. • Flows can be combined with existing databases of human and eco-toxicity indicators for environmental impact assessment. • Simulation framework facilitates connection to existing regional ecosystem models with feedbacks (flows, ecosystem services). • Impacts on Human Health in space and time become visible by environmental exposure, activity decision change, feedbacks of ecosystem degradation or improvements.
  17. 17. Overview • Linking Resource Flows & Socio-Economics • Simulation Modelling for Decision Insights • Building a Regional Demonstrator Model • Cross-Sector Collaboration
  18. 18. Decision Support for Regional Design • Resilience.io is not a predictive modelling platform which describes the future. • Resilience.io is normative as it creates insights in how to shape the future. • Its value is the ability to simulate investment, planning, and policy decisions. • And giving users visibility on decision impact at economic, social, and environmental dimensions. Model Regional Design Simulation Results Investment Planning Policies Visibility Resilience Performance States
  19. 19. Investment, Policy, Planning, Impacts visible at multiple levels Level 2 : Indicator relational details & graphical output Level 3: Quantitative & Qualitative Variable and Parameter mapping Level 1 – Key Performance Indicators Level 4: Technical report Identification of relational and data gaps and potential for improvement Comprehensiveness of process and agent relations and data input
  20. 20. Indicators include Stability and Resilience • Value at Risk due to Natural & Societal Events are measured by impact on Capital (Social, Economic, Natural, Physical) • Stability  continuity in supply of goods and services + pursuit of activities • Resilience ability to mitigate shocks and prevent irreversible capital loss Economic Response -Capital Re-allocation -Capital Re-configuration Economic Impact -Capital Mitigation -Capital Loss Natural -Climate Change -Pathogens -Ecosystem change Societal -Social Disruptions -Supply Chains -Market Shocks
  21. 21. Economic Instruments Taxes and tax concessions Purchasing Tradable Permits Legislative & Public Instruments Educational programmes Standards and Penalties Covenants Accreditation systems Licensing Subsidies and grants Public service provision Simulating Policy Decisions • The model is delivered with a library of policy options. • Policy effects are simulated based on changes in market operation and decisions. • Impacts become visible through changes in outcomes (production, consumption, activities) and indicators (social, economic, environmental) in space and time. • Users can put policies into effect and vary their degree.
  22. 22. Simulating Investments and Procurement • Companies start investment decision evaluation based on threshold conditions (e.g. capital, market conditions, credit). • Simulated investments decisions are based on a three-step procedure, first: technology choice, second: selection of plausible options, third: cost-benefit analysis. • Users can analyse investment condition impacts by adjusting parameters requirements (NPV, ROI, BCR, Diversification, Time Horizon), value inclusion (Economic, Social, Environmental), and degree of cross-sector information in simulation. • Users can as “central planner” choose their own investment decisions at both company and government levels, overriding internal simulation decisions.
  23. 23. Simulating Planning Decisions • At baseline for each demonstrator the local spatial planning map is reconstructed in the model. • The platform user can adjust planning rules as a “planning permission authority” about land use, construction, and demolition, based on parameter settings. • Any investment or policy decision generated in the simulation will be evaluated and accepted or rejected based on the user set planning rules. Simulated Planning Simulated Planning consideration (company / consideration (company / government) government) Built Built environment environment change change Planning Investment Planning Investment Simulated Planning Simulated Planning Application Application Acceptance/Rejection based on user rules Acceptance/Rejection based on user rules
  24. 24. Overview • Linking Resource Flows & Socio-Economics • Simulation Modelling for Decision Insights • Building a Regional Demonstrator Model • Cross-Sector Collaboration
  25. 25. Inclusive Regional Model Roll-out
  26. 26. Data sources for simulating people, companies and ecology in time and space Population Status • Population census data • Birth-death, marriage registers • Labour, employment records • Education & Health records • Happiness surveys Market & Societal structures • Business and tax records • Company Location Data • Activity & Consumption data • Sector and Utility Networks • Crowd-sourced Surveys Transport & Exchange • Public transport records • GPS, traffic & signal sensors • Cross boundary Imp./Exp. data • Market purchasing data • Property investment data Ecological Information • Land registries • Soil and Water Quality • Biomass Productivity • Climatic ecosystem records • Local Ecosystem Models Resilience.io Simulation
  27. 27. Satellite Remote Sensing – Urban Environment Information - Edinburgh
  28. 28. Social Data - Multiple Deprivation Score at Ward/ Street Level – London Crown copyright and database rights 2011 Ordnance Survey. London Borough of Tower Index of Multiple Deprivation 2010 Hamlets 100019288
  29. 29. Overview • Linking Resource Flows & Socio-Economics • Simulation Modelling for Decision Insights • Building a Regional Demonstrator Model • Cross-Sector Collaboration
  30. 30. Creating visibility for cross-sector collaboration Ecosystems (Terrestrial, Aquatic) x Construction Energy Generation Transportation Human and animal Services Mineral Extraction Food processing Forestry Physical manufacturing Chemical manufacturing Recycling, disposal, remanufacturing Water Supply Agriculture & Seafood Biological processing Human consumption
  31. 31. Getting People Working Together Demonstrate Approach through Parallel Action in a Network of 3-5 Strategically Important Demonstrate Approach through Parallel Action in a Network of 3-5 Strategically Important Locations (1-5m people) Locations (1-5m people) Getting People Working Together Regional Collaboratory Open-source Model ‘living master plan’ Open-source Model ‘living master plan’ Cross sector capacity building programmes – integrated systems thinking & design Tangible linking of social/wellbeing benefit to physical interventions Integrated technology and infrastructure project plans Mobilised finance and inward investment Public, Private & Community Sector Partner Public, Private & Community Sector Partner Access/ Access/ collaboration collaboration Live regional data cloud and performance KPIs & metrics Integrated regional development plan
  32. 32. Collaboratories ‘on the ground’ Cambridge, Sainsbury Laboratory Arizona, Decision Theatre Warwick Research Exchange Stanford, Clark Center Stanford D. school
  33. 33. Resilience.io Technical Brief on Model Architecture & Decision Support Koppelaar@iier.ch
  34. 34. Questions..
  35. 35. Global ICES ESA Global Climate and Insurance Catastrophic Risk OASIS Modelling
  36. 36. User Cockpits
  37. 37. Integrated urban systems design/planning and procurement for sustainability and resilience Now Where we could be with systems thinking and performance based procurement • Sequential and silo-ed approach – conventional economic assessment dominates how we design (cities, policies, technology interventions etc) • Short term political and finance cycles dominate economic plane • Environment plane silo-ed (i.e. water-food-energy, urban and rural viewed separately) • Social benefit at the end of the line – abstract relationship to earlier planes . • INTEGRATED DESIGN • INTEGRATED PLANNING • ACCELERATED DEVELOPMENT DEVELOPMENT PLANNING DESIGN DESIGN PLANNING DEVELOPMENT
  38. 38. Output Successful improvement in energy-water-food security and quality of lifess Evidence-based ‘trusted’ independent model “Project portfolio” Return Investment Regional Funding for Projects- ‘Green Growth’ ‘Climate Adaptation’ ‘Social Impact Bonds’ Sources of capital-MNB’s Pension Funds Sovereign Wealth Funds Assurance “High quality inclusive resilient growth”
  39. 39. Appendix -Process Library Example -Technological Progress -3D Visualisation -Full (Eco)nomic Value
  40. 40. Process Library Sector Example Data improvement •Full supply chain accounting •Data accounting robustness •Identification of data gaps •Crosscheck validation potential Technology appraisal •R&D technology effects •Process substitution options •Cost accounting of suppliers •Eco-efficiency priorities •Supply chain environmental impact calculation Energy Generation Solar Energy Wind Energy Thin Film Solar Photovoltaic Solar Monocrystalline Polycrystalline Amorphous Ingot based Ribbon drawn A B C D E F G Sets of processes
  41. 41. Technology progress forecasts
  42. 42. 3D visualisation provides a communication tool for stakeholders & investors data menu enables interactive overlay of relevant information
  43. 43. Full (Eco)nomic Value Labour hours •to retrieve & process materials (incl. energy) across supply chains •to transport and distribute materials •“Embodied” in infrastructure Temporal storage cost requirements for supply chain functioning Market Prices (Eco)nomic value Price markups •Market organization •Ownership •Skill and knowledge demand/supply Societal valuation •present vs. the future (discount rates ) •Scarcity of goods in relation to demand and preferences Ecosystem services •Provisioning •Regulating •Cultural Human well-being •Security •Wealth for a good life •Health •Good social relations •Freedom of choice Technology Base  Labour / Energy needs Market Structure  Markups & Distribution Societal Valuation Price as a marker for value Physical costs

×