3. It’s HARD !
http://www.flickr.com/photos/jypsygen/3732589905/
4. Why do we keep playing this
game?
http://www.flickr.com/photos/12203106@N05/1259607301/
5. The 5 wives
1. WHY? Because my manager keeps
asking for them!
2. WHY? Because he needs to give estimates
to his boss
3. WHY? Because the management team needs
to update the release planning
4. WHY? Because our customers want to know
when they get their new features
5. WHY? Because they are relying on our solution
for their own business
http://www.flickr.com/photos/jypsygen/3732589905/
23. We ALL tend to be too OPTIMISTIC
Developers:
• 20% - 30% too optimistic²
Managers :
• We’ll be more productive
• Won’t make the same mistakes
• Catch up with extra effort
28. Planning by counting
1. Find something to count closely
related to size of the software
2. Find something that’s
available now
3. Must be statistically meaningful
4. Convert count to estimate
36. • Ongoing
• Re-planning
• Changes weighed
We need to plan FAST,
with good ACCURACY
and LITTLE DETAILED information
37. HOW can we plan
‘Agile’?
• Plan and re-plan
• The right thing at the right time
• With minimal effort
• With good accuracy
• And little detailed information
• Creating a shared framework of understanding
http://www.flickr.com/photos/jakecaptive/3205277810/
41. Issue : size & complexity vary
Solution : use a scale
Story points
T-shirt sizes
Fruit, ...
http://www.flickr.com/photos/jaydedman/2593673396/
42. Issue : size & complexity vary
Solution : SPLIT them to approx.
the same size and benefit from
the statistical average
http://www.flickr.com/photos/jaydedman/2593673396/
43. Issue : size & complexity vary
Solution : SPLIT them to approx.
the same size and benefit from
the statistical average
http://www.flickr.com/photos/jaydedman/2593673396/
44. Issue : lot’s of discussions
Solution : Poker planning
http://www.flickr.com/photos/smannion/3385144016/
45. Issue : lot’s of discussions
Solution : Good Facilitation
http://www.flickr.com/photos/smannion/3385144016/
46. Issue : we never deliver what
we estimated
Solution : Reduce variation between
input & output
• Dedicated team! (or time)
• Compute velocity according to capacity
• Strive for Zero defects
• Increase input quality (story preparation)
• Retrospectives !
47. Agile Release Planning
How the h*ll ?
can you make a release plan without
detailed up-front analysis?
http://www.flickr.com/photos/tripphotogallery/4059486159/
48. Count & Measure
Relative estimates or dividing into
equal parts
TIP: Silent Grouping
Image by Ken Power
49. Count & Measure
Use historical data to
project into the
future
http://www.flickr.com/photos/hdrphotographyblog/4498443106/
50. Count & Measure
Estimate in ranges
Scope
• Low
• Medium
• High
Time
51. Re-plan
Measure velocity
Scope
Adjust release plan
Time
52. Agile release planning
But answer this question first:
“What is most imporant?
• Delivering the FULL SCOPE
OR
• Delivering a useful product at a FIXED DATE
54. A plan loses its value right after it
is created
Because it’s part of history and did
not know about the present!²
The only way
it makes sense to use a plan,
is when you continuously re-plan!
