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Exploring AgileEstimating & Planning               @NickOostvogels
WHY estimating      & planning?http://www.flickr.com/photos/jakecaptive/3205277810/
It’s HARD !      http://www.flickr.com/photos/jypsygen/3732589905/
Why do we keep playing this      game?http://www.flickr.com/photos/12203106@N05/1259607301/
The 5 wives1. WHY?   Because my manager keeps              asking for them!2. WHY?   Because he needs to give estimates   ...
Giving accurate estimatesis commercially interesting and  brings value to our customers!
Other reasonsTo keep the pressure on                     http://www.flickr.com/photos/wwarby/3016549999/
Other reasons                                                     For political reasonshttp://www.flickr.com/photos/poland...
One month ago in PolandNO Belgian government for 291 days!
NowNO Belgian government for 422 days!
Other reasonsNot having to work together                   http://www.flickr.com/photos/nanophoto69/5294068212/
Other reasons                                                       Yearly budgettinghttp://www.flickr.com/photos/bcgovpho...
Other reasonsCost optimizing
Other reasonsPersonnel planning            http://www.flickr.com/photos/sponng/32380259/
These are all REASONSthat can be dealt within another way!
but still...Number 1 reason:Customers!
HOW Estimating      & Planning?http://www.flickr.com/photos/jakecaptive/3205277810/
3 types of estimating                  1. Guessinghttp://www.flickr.com/photos/photojonny/2268845904/
3 types of estimating                    2. Countinghttp://www.flickr.com/photos/ruiguerra/215254507/
3 types of estimating                                                                          3. Measuringhttp://www.flic...
ConclusionCount or measure if you can, only use guessing or judgement as your last option.
Especiallywhen estimatingduration of tasks!
We ALL tend to be too OPTIMISTICDevelopers:  • 20% - 30% too optimistic²Managers :  • We’ll be more productive  • Won’t ma...
Guessing in rangesWhen you can’t count or measure           1   2   3    4    5Task 1           1   2   3    4    5Task 2
Guessing in rangesReveals information:• How clear is the tasks• A best and worst case scenario
CountingWhat can you count?
Nr of interfacesFunction points       Lines of code        Nr of rules                           Nr of rolesDatabase table...
Planning by counting1. Find something to count closely   related to size of the software2. Find something that’s   availab...
Measuring
WHY      does Agile need a      different type of      planning?http://www.flickr.com/photos/jakecaptive/3205277810/
Responding to changehttp://www.flickr.com/photos/driotinto/2878033778/
Customer collaborationWhat’s the point in getting feedback if you can’t do anything with it?
Quest for value           What         should we           build?
Planning never endshttp://www.flickr.com/photos/michpics17/3476946665/
ComparisonUp-front planning Agile planning• At the start        • Ongoing• Stick to the plan   • Re-plan• Changes avoided ...
• Ongoing• Re-planning• Changes weighedWe need to plan FAST,with good ACCURACYand LITTLE DETAILED information
HOW can we plan      ‘Agile’?     • Plan and re-plan     • The right thing at the right time     • With minimal effort    ...
Guessing?NOT AccurateToo little requirements are detailed(only next sprint)
Counting & Measuring?        YES !FASTACCURATEDon’t need all details
Agile counting &measuringCOUNT pieces of functionality (ex. user stories)MEASURE team velocity or feature cycle time
Issue : size & complexity vary                     Solution : use a scale                     Story points                ...
Issue : size & complexity vary      Solution : SPLIT them to approx.       the same size and benefit from       the statis...
Issue : size & complexity vary      Solution : SPLIT them to approx.       the same size and benefit from       the statis...
Issue : lot’s of discussions      Solution : Poker planninghttp://www.flickr.com/photos/smannion/3385144016/
Issue : lot’s of discussions      Solution : Good Facilitationhttp://www.flickr.com/photos/smannion/3385144016/
Issue : we never deliver what            we estimatedSolution : Reduce variation between input & output•   Dedicated team!...
Agile Release Planning    How the h*ll ?    can you make a release plan without     detailed up-front analysis?http://www....
Count & MeasureRelative estimates or dividing into equal partsTIP: Silent GroupingImage by Ken Power
Count & Measure      Use historical data to      project into the      futurehttp://www.flickr.com/photos/hdrphotographybl...
Count & Measure             Estimate in rangesScope                • Low                • Medium                • High    ...
Re-plan            Measure velocityScope          Adjust release plan               Time
Agile release planningBut answer this question first:“What is most imporant?• Delivering the FULL SCOPEOR• Delivering a us...
Count & MeasurePrioritize•   Business value•   Story mapping•   Dimensional planning•   Kano•   Bang for the buck
A plan loses its value right after it is createdBecause it’s part of history and did not know about the present!²The only ...
Thanks!            @NickOostvogels            noostvog.wordpress.comResources
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Exploring Agile Estimating and Planning

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Exploring Agile Estimating and Planning

  1. 1. Exploring AgileEstimating & Planning @NickOostvogels
  2. 2. WHY estimating & planning?http://www.flickr.com/photos/jakecaptive/3205277810/
  3. 3. It’s HARD ! http://www.flickr.com/photos/jypsygen/3732589905/
  4. 4. Why do we keep playing this game?http://www.flickr.com/photos/12203106@N05/1259607301/
  5. 5. The 5 wives1. WHY? Because my manager keeps asking for them!2. WHY? Because he needs to give estimates to his boss3. WHY? Because the management team needs to update the release planning4. WHY? Because our customers want to know when they get their new features5. WHY? Because they are relying on our solution for their own business http://www.flickr.com/photos/jypsygen/3732589905/
  6. 6. Giving accurate estimatesis commercially interesting and brings value to our customers!
  7. 7. Other reasonsTo keep the pressure on http://www.flickr.com/photos/wwarby/3016549999/
  8. 8. Other reasons For political reasonshttp://www.flickr.com/photos/polandmfa/5537238802/
  9. 9. One month ago in PolandNO Belgian government for 291 days!
  10. 10. NowNO Belgian government for 422 days!
  11. 11. Other reasonsNot having to work together http://www.flickr.com/photos/nanophoto69/5294068212/
  12. 12. Other reasons Yearly budgettinghttp://www.flickr.com/photos/bcgovphotos/5449582500/
  13. 13. Other reasonsCost optimizing
  14. 14. Other reasonsPersonnel planning http://www.flickr.com/photos/sponng/32380259/
  15. 15. These are all REASONSthat can be dealt within another way!
  16. 16. but still...Number 1 reason:Customers!
  17. 17. HOW Estimating & Planning?http://www.flickr.com/photos/jakecaptive/3205277810/
  18. 18. 3 types of estimating 1. Guessinghttp://www.flickr.com/photos/photojonny/2268845904/
  19. 19. 3 types of estimating 2. Countinghttp://www.flickr.com/photos/ruiguerra/215254507/
  20. 20. 3 types of estimating 3. Measuringhttp://www.flickr.com/photos/luis_is_rubbish_at_photography/5357065651/
  21. 21. ConclusionCount or measure if you can, only use guessing or judgement as your last option.
  22. 22. Especiallywhen estimatingduration of tasks!
  23. 23. We ALL tend to be too OPTIMISTICDevelopers: • 20% - 30% too optimistic²Managers : • We’ll be more productive • Won’t make the same mistakes • Catch up with extra effort
  24. 24. Guessing in rangesWhen you can’t count or measure 1 2 3 4 5Task 1 1 2 3 4 5Task 2
  25. 25. Guessing in rangesReveals information:• How clear is the tasks• A best and worst case scenario
  26. 26. CountingWhat can you count?
  27. 27. Nr of interfacesFunction points Lines of code Nr of rules Nr of rolesDatabase tables Web pages
  28. 28. Planning by counting1. Find something to count closely related to size of the software2. Find something that’s available now3. Must be statistically meaningful4. Convert count to estimate
  29. 29. Measuring
  30. 30. WHY does Agile need a different type of planning?http://www.flickr.com/photos/jakecaptive/3205277810/
  31. 31. Responding to changehttp://www.flickr.com/photos/driotinto/2878033778/
  32. 32. Customer collaborationWhat’s the point in getting feedback if you can’t do anything with it?
  33. 33. Quest for value What should we build?
  34. 34. Planning never endshttp://www.flickr.com/photos/michpics17/3476946665/
  35. 35. ComparisonUp-front planning Agile planning• At the start • Ongoing• Stick to the plan • Re-plan• Changes avoided • Changes weighed
  36. 36. • Ongoing• Re-planning• Changes weighedWe need to plan FAST,with good ACCURACYand LITTLE DETAILED information
  37. 37. HOW can we plan ‘Agile’? • Plan and re-plan • The right thing at the right time • With minimal effort • With good accuracy • And little detailed information • Creating a shared framework of understandinghttp://www.flickr.com/photos/jakecaptive/3205277810/
  38. 38. Guessing?NOT AccurateToo little requirements are detailed(only next sprint)
  39. 39. Counting & Measuring? YES !FASTACCURATEDon’t need all details
  40. 40. Agile counting &measuringCOUNT pieces of functionality (ex. user stories)MEASURE team velocity or feature cycle time
  41. 41. Issue : size & complexity vary Solution : use a scale Story points T-shirt sizes Fruit, ...http://www.flickr.com/photos/jaydedman/2593673396/
  42. 42. Issue : size & complexity vary Solution : SPLIT them to approx. the same size and benefit from the statistical averagehttp://www.flickr.com/photos/jaydedman/2593673396/
  43. 43. Issue : size & complexity vary Solution : SPLIT them to approx. the same size and benefit from the statistical averagehttp://www.flickr.com/photos/jaydedman/2593673396/
  44. 44. Issue : lot’s of discussions Solution : Poker planninghttp://www.flickr.com/photos/smannion/3385144016/
  45. 45. Issue : lot’s of discussions Solution : Good Facilitationhttp://www.flickr.com/photos/smannion/3385144016/
  46. 46. Issue : we never deliver what we estimatedSolution : Reduce variation between input & output• Dedicated team! (or time)• Compute velocity according to capacity• Strive for Zero defects• Increase input quality (story preparation)• Retrospectives !
  47. 47. Agile Release Planning How the h*ll ? can you make a release plan without detailed up-front analysis?http://www.flickr.com/photos/tripphotogallery/4059486159/
  48. 48. Count & MeasureRelative estimates or dividing into equal partsTIP: Silent GroupingImage by Ken Power
  49. 49. Count & Measure Use historical data to project into the futurehttp://www.flickr.com/photos/hdrphotographyblog/4498443106/
  50. 50. Count & Measure Estimate in rangesScope • Low • Medium • High Time
  51. 51. Re-plan Measure velocityScope Adjust release plan Time
  52. 52. Agile release planningBut answer this question first:“What is most imporant?• Delivering the FULL SCOPEOR• Delivering a useful product at a FIXED DATE
  53. 53. Count & MeasurePrioritize• Business value• Story mapping• Dimensional planning• Kano• Bang for the buck
  54. 54. A plan loses its value right after it is createdBecause it’s part of history and did not know about the present!²The only way it makes sense to use a plan,is when you continuously re-plan!
  55. 55. Thanks! @NickOostvogels noostvog.wordpress.comResources

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