1. PD PROJECT
[Type your address]  [Type your phone number]  [Type your e-mail address]
Walt Disney

Divya Ragatha
Srivastava
Singh
Gupta
Bera

2. Introduction
For more than eight decades, the name Walt Disney has been preeminent in
the field of family entertainment. From humble beginnings as a cartoon studio in
the 1920s to today's global corporation, The Walt Disney Company continues to
proudly provide quality entertainment for every member of the family, across
America and around the world.
Walt Disney
Walt Disney is one of the largest media and entertainment corporations in the
world. Founded on October 16, 1923, by brothers Walt and Roy Disney as an
animation studio, it has become one of the biggest Hollywood studios, and
owner and licensor of eleven theme parks and several television networks,
including ABC and ESPN. Disney's corporate headquarters and primary
production facilities are located at The Walt Disney Studios in Burbank,
California. The company is a component of the Dow Jones Industrial Average.
John E. Pepper, Jr. ( )
Robert I ger ( )& ( )
Anne Sweeney (
)
ABC, ABC Family, ABC Kids, Walt Disney Distribution, Walt Disney Motion Pictures
Group, Disney Channel, ESPN, Jetix, Walt Disney Studios, Walt Disney Parks and
Resorts, Walt Disney Television Animation, Walt Disney Records, Walt Disney
Pictures, Touchstone Pictures, Miramax Films, ABC Studios, Playhouse Disney,

3. Disney Consumer Products, Pixar Animation Studios, SOAPnet , Disney Interactive
Studios, Muppets Holding Company, Disney Store, Toon Disney, New Horizon
Interactive, and Hollywood Records
Walt Disney
The Walt Disney Studios is the foundation on which Disney was built, and at its heart
are world-renowned animated features and live-action motion pictures. With the
creation of Mickey Mouse and Snow White and the Seven Dwarfs, the world's first full-
length animated feature, the Disney name quickly became synonymous with quality
entertainment for the whole family
Disney's Parks and Resorts is not just home to
Disney's beloved characters but the place "Where
Dreams Come True." The segment traces its roots to
1952, w hen Walt Disney formed w hat is today known
as Walt Disney I magineering to build Disneyland Park
in Anaheim, California.
Since then, Parks and Resorts has grown to encompass the world-
class
Disney Cruise Line, eight Disney Vacation Club resorts (with more than 100,000
members), Adv entures by Disney (immersive Disney-guided travel around the world),
and five resort locations (encompassing 11 theme parks, including some owned or co-
ow ned by independent entities) on three continents:

4. Disney merchandising began in 1929 w hen
Walt Disney was approached by a businessman
interested in placing Mickey Mouse on the cover of a
children's writing tablet. Disney Consumer Products
and affiliates (DCP) extend the Disney brand to
merchandise ranging from apparel, toys, home décor
and books and magazines to interactive games,
foods and beverages, stationery, electronics and fine
art. This is accomplished through DCP's various lines of
business w hich include: Disney Toys, Disney Apparel,
Accessories & Footwear, Disney Food, Health &
Beauty, Disney Home and Disney Stationery.
Disney Publishing Worldwide (DPW) is the world's largest publisher of children’s books
and magazines, reaching more than 100 million readers each month in 75 countries.
Disney's imprints include Disney Libri, Hyperion Books for Children, Jump at the Sun,
Disney Press, and Disney Editions.
Media Networks comprise a vast array of
broadcast, cable, radio, publishing and Internet
businesses. Key areas include: Disney-ABC Television
Group, ESPN Inc., Walt Disney Internet Group, ABC
ow ned television stations, and a supporting
headquarters group. Marketing, research, sales and
communications functions also exist within the
segment.

5. Competitors
The recent AOL/Time Warner merger is one of the most significant mergers in the
history of corporate America. For years, Time Warner was a media giant,
producing films, television networks, professional sports, and digital media. They
also held the brand name, Warner Brothers. America Online is currently the #1
internet service and owns Netscape and Compuserve. Together, AOL Time
Warner, Inc. will challenge the industry dominance of The Walt Disney
Company.
AOL Time Warner, Inc. is Disney's chief competitor. This company not only
challenges Disney's television interests, but also looks to be competitor in
merchandising. The Warner Brother label will be the name brand name in this
merchandising effort. The merger put the final nail in the coffin of The Go
Network and has had a significant effect upon Disney Internet interests.
Viacom is the world's third largest media company. They operate well known
affiliates such as CBS Enterprises, Paramount Television, Blockbuster Video, and
Infinity Broadcasting. Viacom also produces TV shows and mot ion pictures
through popular cable outlets. The most popular of these channels are Black
Entertainment Television, Showtime, MTV Networks.

6. CBS promises new programming and a stong late night lineup that may
challenge the success of ABC and their hit telev ision show, "Who Wants To Be A
Millionaire". CBS offers a huge threat to the future of The Walt Disney Company
and The ABC television network. In order to maintain its position as the world's #1
media conglomerate, Disney must continue to improve upon the quality of its
television programming.
The Fox Entertainment Group is a serious competitor to the strength of Disney's
television networks. Popular Fox shows, such as Ally McBeal, and sporting
interests, such as the broadcasting rights to the National Football league have
challenged Disney's television dominance.
Paramount Pictures Corporation is an United States motion picture production and
distribution company, based in Hollywood, California. Founded in 1912, it is the oldest
running movie studio in Hollywood, beating Universal Studios by a month.I t has the
largest studio market share. It has produced most of the popular Hollywood Titles.
Titanic produced by Paramount is currently the Biggest grosser in both the domestic
and I nternational market.
The following chart shows 2007 domestic studio market share by gross revenue.
Total gross revenue in that year was ~$9.7B for the industry as a whole.

7. Rank Company Market
Share
1 Paramount 15.50%
2 Warner Bros 14.70%
3 Buena Vista 14.00%
4 Sony/Columbia 12.90%
5 Universal 11.40%
6 20th Century 10.50%
Fox
7 New Line 5.00%
8 Lion Gate 3.80%
9 MGM/UA 3.80%
10 Fox Searchlight 1.40%
11 Miramax 1.30%
12 Rogue Pictures 0.80%
1 Paramount 2 Warner Bros 3 Buena Vista
4 Sony/Columbia 5 Universal 6 20th Century Fox
7 New Line 8 Lion Gate 9 MGM/UA
10 Fox Searchlight 11 Miramax 12 Rogue Pictures
2% 1%
4% 1%
4%
5%
16%
11% 15%
15%
12%
DISNEY
14%

8. Method used for forecasting
This method is a ‘classical method’ of business forecasting . It is essentially
concerned with the study of movement of variables through time . The use of
this method requires a long and reliable time-series data . Trend projection
method is used under the assumption that the factors responsible for past trends
in the variable to be projected will continue to play their part in fut ure in the
same manner and to the same extent as they did in the past in determining the
variable.
There are 3 techniques of trend projection based on time-series data:
In this method, a trend line is fitted to the time-series sales data either visually
or by regression analysis. The linear regression model will take the form of
St = So + bt
Where:
St= value of time series to be forecasted for period t
S0= estimated value of time series in the base period
b= absolute amount of growth per period
t= time period for which series is to be forecasted

9. So = [(∑S)( ∑(t2))-( ∑t)*( ∑s*t)]/d
b=[n∑s*t-(∑t)( ∑s)]/d
where d=n∑(t2)-( ∑t)2
One characteristic of this method is that each observation has the same weight.
Shortcomings of trend projection:
One of the most successful forecasting methods is the exponential smoothing
(ES) techniques. Exponential smoothing overcomes many objections of simple
moving averages. ES is an averaging technique that uses unequal weights;
however, the weights applied to past observations decline in an exponential
manner.
Exponential smoothing is a technique of time series forecasting that gives
greater weight to more recent observations. The first step is to choose a
smoothing constant w where 0<w<1. If there are n observations in a time series,
the forecast for the next period i.e. (t+1) is calculated as a weighted average of
the observed value of the series at period t and the forecasted value for that
same period. Thus, the value of the forecast of the time series in period t+1 is
Ft+1 = wAt + (1-w)Ft
where:

10. A small w provides a detectable and visible smoothing. While a large w
provides a fast response to the recent changes in the time series but provides a
smaller amount of smoothing.
For selecting the value of w, we will calculate RMSE(root mean square error)
RMSE=√(∑(A –F)2/n)
The value of w is accepted for which RMSE is minimum.

11. Analysis Of Data
PERIOD REVENUES
1 27061
2 30752
3 31347
4 33747
5 35510
40000
35000
30000
25000
20000
15000
REVENUES IN
10000 MILLIONS
5000
0
1 2 3 4 5
YEAR PERIOD REVENUES S*t
2003 1 27061 27061
2004 2 30752 61504
2005 3 31347 94041
2006 4 33747 134988
2007 5 35510 177550
15 158417 495144
55
d= 50
s0= 25715.5
b= 1989.3
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
st= 27704.8 29694.1 31683.4 33672.7 35662 37651.3
A-F -643.8 1057.9 -336.4 74.3 -152 (A- 1675420
F)^2
rmse 578.8645

12. PERIOD PROFITS
1 1267
2 2345
3 2533
4 3374
5 4687
5000
4500
4000
3500
3000
2500
2000 PROFITS
1500 (In millions)
1000
500
0
1 2 3 4 5
YEA PERIO PROFITS P*T
R D
200 1 1267 1267
3
200 2 2345 4690
4
200 3 2533 7599
5
200 4 3374 13496
6
200 5 4687 23435
7
15 14206 50487
55
d= 260
p0= 92.403846

13. 15
b= 151.32692
31
pt 243.73076 395.05769 546.384 697.711 849.038 1000.36
92 23 6 5 5 5
2101.2692 2137.9423 2827.61 3989.28 13356.9 (A- 2.11E+0
31 08 5 8 6 F)^2 8
rms 6500.83
e 7
YE PERI REVE A-F FORECA A-F FORECA A-F w=0. A-F w=0. A-F
A OD NUES FOREC STING STING 8 9
R ASTIN WITH WITH
G W=0.6 W=0.7
WITH
W=0.5
20 1 2706 31683. - 31683.4 - 31683.4 - 316 - 316 -
03 1 4 4622 4622 4622 83.4 4622 83.4 4622
.4 .4 .4 .4 .4
20 2 3075 29372. 1379 28909.9 1842 28447.7 2304 279 2766 275 3228
04 2 2 .8 6 .04 2 .28 85.4 .52 23.2 .76
8 4
20 3 3134 30062. 1284 30200.0 1146 30338.0 1008 304 870. 306 732.

14. 05 7 1 .9 8 .92 6 .94 76.0 96 14.0 98
4 2
20 4 3374 30704. 3042 30833.0 2913 30961.5 2785 310 2656 312 2528
06 7 55 .45 4 .96 3 .47 90.0 .98 18.5 .49
2 1
20 5 3551 32225. 3284 32530.0 2979 32834.2 2675 331 2371 334 2067
07 0 775 .225 2 .98 65 .735 38.5 .49 42.7 .245
1 6
20 33867. 34196.3 34524.7 348 351
08 8875 1 325 53.1 81.5
6 8
SUM 1584
17
SIGMA 4496 4344 4261 4246 4299
(A-F)^2 4034 6562 2649 2294 5496
rmse 2998 2947 2919 2914 2932
.801 .764 .337 .182 .422
AVE 3168
RAG 3.4
E
YE PERIO PRO A-F FORECAS A-F FORECAS A-F w=0.8 A-F w=0.9 A-F
AR D FITS FORECA TING TING
STING WITH WITH
WITH W=0.6 W=0.7
W=0.5
20 1 126 2841.2 - 2841.2 - 2841.2 - 2841. - 2841. -1574.2
03 7 1574. 1574. 1574. 2 1574. 2
2 2 2 2
20 2 234 2054.1 290.9 1896.68 448.3 1739.26 605.7 1581. 763.1 1424. 920.58
04 5 2 4 84 6 42
20 3 253 2199.55 333.4 2228.64 304.3 2257.73 275.2 2286. 246.1 2315. 217.09
05 3 5 6 7 82 8 91
20 4 337 2366.27 1007. 2399.62 974.3 2432.96 941.0 2466. 907.6 2499. 874.345

15. 06 4 5 725 8 5 35 31 9 655
20 5 468 2870.13 1816. 2970.91 1716. 3071.68 1615. 3172. 1514. 3273. 1413.77
07 7 75 863 09 25 318 455 545 228 25
3778.56 3960.25 4141.94 4323. 4505.
875 5 125 628 314
SUM 142
06
SIGMA 6990 6666 6415 6238 613593
(A-F)^2 416 113 598 871 3.105
rmse 1182. 1154. 1132. 1117. 1107.78
406 653 749 038 4555
AVER 284
AGE 1.2
PERIOD REVENUES PROJECTED
1 27061 27704.8
2 30752 29694.1
3 31347 31683.4
4 33747 33672.7
5 35510 35662
40000 40000
35000 35000
30000 30000
25000 25000 REVENUE
REVENUES ACTUAL
20000 ACTUAL 20000
15000 REVENUES 15000 REVENUE
PROJECTED PROJECTE
10000 D
10000
5000
5000
0
1 0
2 3 4 5 1 2 3 4 5

16. YEAR PERIOD PROFITS PROJECTED
2003 1 1267 2841.2
2004 2 2345 1424.42
2005 3 2533 2315.91
2006 4 3374 2499.655
2007 5 4687 3273.228
5000
4500
4000
3500
3000
2500 PROFITS
2000 PROJECTED
1500
1000
500
0
1 2 3 4 5

17. Conclusion
A
The Walt Disney

18. Bibliography