9. Computer Modelling of Human Behaviour
Computer Modelling and Simulation Is Central to Modern Systems Engineering
FloatingPointOperationsPerSecond(FLOPS)
1993
1010
1011
1012
1013
1015
1014
1016
1017
X
X
2000 2010
2009, LosAlamos
Estimate of Speed
Of Human Brain
$15million in 1993
$1000 today
1998 Estimate1
2020
X
1018 X
The speed of
available computers
has passed the
capacity of the
human brain
Speed of available
computers
Ray Kurzweil : In the 2020’s, computers will be able to think like humans;
in the 2030s, whole brain emulation or mind uploading (sometimes called
mind transfer) will be achieved
June 2011, 500
supercomputers
Networked
1 Hans Moravec, 1998 9
Computers
Can Now
Process
Data Faster
Than the
Human
Brain
Computer modelling is central to systems engineering. The literature of the twentieth century, much of it written before the internet, neurological science and computing as we know it today, is replete with references to systems engineering having failed in human-related behavioural problem solving because of the nature of human beings. In 2005, Ray Kurzweil, the US scientist, inventor and futurist made accurate predictions about computers and virtual reality in 2010. The power of networked supercomputers surpassed the human brain last year. Kurzweil has predicted that in the 2020s, computers will be available which will think like humans. He has predicted that in the 2030s, whole brain emulation will be achieved by mapping and copying brain states onto non-human computational devices. (CLICK)
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