Forecasting Technological Change (2)

Forecasting Technological Change Session 2. Trend Analysis Paul A. Schumann, Jr. Glocal Vantage, Inc. 06/07/09

Sessions ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],06/07/09

2. Trend Analysis Techniques ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],06/07/09 If you don’t know where you are, and how you got there, how can you possibly know where you are going? Abe Lincoln

Techniques ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],06/07/09

Economic Maturation of Technology ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],06/07/09

Future Forecast ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],06/07/09

Nature of Work 06/07/09 Source: Snyder, et al, “The Strategic Context of Education in America 2000 - 2020

Information Technology 06/07/09 Source: Jeremy Greenwood, The Third Industrial Revolution

Third IR Technologies 06/07/09 1950 1975 2000 NP CP HP 2025 DP

Precursor 06/07/09 Time (Effort, Experience) Utility Function

Precursor Example 06/07/09 Source: Ralph Lenz,TFI

Precursor Analysis ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],06/07/09

Trend Extrapolation ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],06/07/09

Trend Analysis 06/07/09 Source: Ralph Lenz, TFI

First Technology Trend Forecast 06/07/09

Internet Users Analysis ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],06/07/09

IC Example 06/07/09 www. intel.com/research/silicon/mooreslaw.htm

Microprocessor Speed 06/07/09 Source: TFI (1990)

Evolution of Computer Power 06/07/09 Source: Hans Moravec

Information Revolution? 06/07/09 Source: Schumann (1982)

Genetic Sequencing 06/07/09 Source: www.ncbi.nih.gov/Genbank/ genbankstats.html

Genetic Sequences 06/07/09 Doubling every 17 months Source: Enriquez

Chromosome Mapping 06/07/09 Source: www.ornl.gov/hgmis/posters/chromosome

Trend Extrapolation ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],06/07/09

Limit Curve ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],06/07/09

Growth Curve 06/07/09 Source: Alan Porter

Limit Curves ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],06/07/09

Limit Curves ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],06/07/09 y = L / (1 + a exp (- b t)) y = L / (1 + 10 (A - B t) ) L = limit a = controls location b = controls shape

Limit Curves ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],06/07/09 f = 1/2 (1 + tanh a (t - t 0 )) f = fraction of applications in which the new technology has been substituted for the old t 0 = time for 50% substitution a = controls shape

Limit Curves ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],06/07/09 Y = L exp (- b exp ( - k t)) Non symmetrical

Limit Curves ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],06/07/09 y = L + (y 0 - L) exp (- b t) L = limit y 0 = initial value b = controls shape of curve

Envelope Curve 06/07/09 Source: Ralph Lenz, TFI

Envelope Curve 06/07/09 Source: TFI 1983

Learning Curve ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],06/07/09

Learning Curve Example 06/07/09 Source: Porter

Residential Electric Power Learning Curve 06/07/09

Fisher-Pry Substitution Analysis ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],06/07/09

Shape of Fisher-Pry Curves 06/07/09 t 0 = 3 a = 0.5 a = 1 a = 1.5

Substitution of Steam for Sail 06/07/09 Steam Sail

Steam/Sail Fisher-Pry Substitution 06/07/09

CATV Substitution in US 06/07/09 Source: Martino, 1983

CATV Substitution (US) 06/07/09

Telecommunication Technology Substitution 06/07/09 Source: Lenz & Vanston, TFI 1986

Telecommunications Substitution Analysis 06/07/09

Multiple Substitution Analysis ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],06/07/09

Multiple Substitution Example 06/07/09 Source: Porter

Comparison of Models 06/07/09 Source: Porter

Summary ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],06/07/09

Summary (cont.) ,[object Object],[object Object],06/07/09

Trend Analysis ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],06/07/09 Data, Insight Surveillance Material Change Trend Analysis Formal

Glocal Vantage, Inc. ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],06/07/09

Paul Schumann ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],06/07/09

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution license. You may distribute, remix, tweak, and build upon this work, even commercially, as long as you credit me for the original creation as Paul Schumann, Glocal Vantage Inc, www.glocalvantage.com. 06/07/09

Forecasting Technological Change (2)

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