Forecasting Technological Change (1)


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Part one of a five part seminar on technology forecasting, tools, techniques and processes. Part four covers an introduction to technology forecasting.

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  • Forecasting Technological Change (1)

    1. 1. Forecasting Technological Change Session 1. Introduction & Surveillance Techniques Paul A. Schumann, Jr. Glocal Vantage, Inc. 06/07/09
    2. 2. Sessions <ul><li>Introduction </li></ul><ul><li>Trend Analysis Techniques </li></ul><ul><li>Expert Opinion Techniques </li></ul><ul><li>Integrative Techniques </li></ul><ul><li>Closing </li></ul>06/07/09
    3. 3. Sessions <ul><li>Introduction </li></ul><ul><li>Trend Analysis Techniques </li></ul><ul><li>Expert Opinion Techniques </li></ul><ul><li>Integrative Techniques </li></ul><ul><li>Closing </li></ul>06/07/09
    4. 4. 1. Introduction <ul><li>Description of Course </li></ul><ul><li>What is Technology? </li></ul><ul><li>Summary of Technology Forecasting </li></ul><ul><li>Applications of Technology Forecasting </li></ul><ul><li>Surveillance Techniques </li></ul>06/07/09
    5. 5. 1. Introduction <ul><li>Description of Course </li></ul><ul><li>What is Technology? </li></ul><ul><li>Summary of Technology Forecasting </li></ul><ul><li>Applications of Technology Forecasting </li></ul><ul><li>Surveillance Techniques </li></ul>06/07/09
    6. 6. Description of Course <ul><li>Four different types of technology forecasting methods </li></ul><ul><li>More than 16 different technology forecasting methods </li></ul><ul><li>Plan and implement a technology forecast </li></ul><ul><li>Competitive advantage </li></ul><ul><li>Increased innovation </li></ul><ul><li>Increased profitability </li></ul><ul><li>Creation of new markets </li></ul><ul><li>Cost reduction </li></ul><ul><li>Market expansion </li></ul><ul><li>Career development </li></ul>06/07/09
    7. 7. What is Technology? <ul><li>“ Technology is systemized knowledge applied to alter, control or order elements of our physical or social environment” - Porter </li></ul><ul><li>“ Technology is the systematic application of organized knowledge to practical activities, especially productive ones.” - Vanston </li></ul><ul><li>“ Technology is the practical application of knowledge. It manifests itself in the form of methods, materials and systems.” - Prestwood & Schumann </li></ul><ul><li>Advances in technology or society always affect themselves and each other </li></ul>06/07/09
    8. 8. 1. Introduction <ul><li>Description of Course </li></ul><ul><li>What is Technology? </li></ul><ul><li>Summary of Technology Forecasting </li></ul><ul><li>Applications of Technology Forecasting </li></ul><ul><li>Surveillance Techniques </li></ul>06/07/09
    9. 9. Technology Forecasting <ul><li>“ Forecasting is anticipating, projecting or estimating some future event, series of events or conditions which is outside of the direct control of the organization.” - Waddell & Sohal </li></ul><ul><li>“ Technology forecasting is the determination of the possible evolution of the technical dimensions of a certain material, product, process or service.” - Martino </li></ul><ul><li>“ a quantified prediction of the timing and of the character of the degree of change in a technical parameter.” - Bright </li></ul>06/07/09
    10. 10. TF (cont.) <ul><li>“ to provide the means whereby a systematic approach can be applied to obtain a better view of the future, one that is sufficiently sound to give an adequate foundation for decision making.” - Twiss </li></ul><ul><li>“ Technology forecasting is the process of using logical, reproducible methods to predict in quantifiable terms, the direction, character, rate, implications and impacts of technical advance.” - Vanston </li></ul>06/07/09
    11. 11. TF (cont.) <ul><li>“ Technology forecasting is the process of discovering and communicating probable future technical capabilities in order to make better decisions today and prevent surprises tomorrow.” - Prestwood & Schumann </li></ul>06/07/09
    12. 12. Technology Forecasting <ul><li>Focused on the future </li></ul><ul><li>Systematic, disciplined approach </li></ul><ul><li>Sufficiently sound to provide a foundation for decision making </li></ul><ul><li>Integrate intuition and rationality </li></ul><ul><li>Not for its own sake but to answer a question or make a decision </li></ul><ul><li>Must recognize the context </li></ul>06/07/09
    13. 13. TF (cont.) <ul><li>Can be described and explained </li></ul><ul><li>Teachable </li></ul><ul><li>Provides a procedure that can be followed by others </li></ul><ul><li>Can be checked by others to see if mistakes have been made </li></ul><ul><li>If conditions change, forecast can be redone and plans altered </li></ul>06/07/09
    14. 14. Telecommunications 06/07/09 Source: Porter
    15. 15. Management <ul><li>“ Regardless of what is being managed, management implies concern for the future. Even ignoring the future involves the implicit assumption that tomorrow will not differ in any important way from today. All managers must make decisions today that will affect the organization’s future.” - Porter </li></ul>06/07/09
    16. 16. Management (cont.) <ul><li>When we make a technical decision today, it is essential to ensure that it will lead to a result which is appropriate to the circumstances, some time in the future. </li></ul><ul><li>As the future is not predestined, it is unknown. </li></ul><ul><li>The future will be shaped by today’s decisions. </li></ul><ul><li>Today’s decisions must be based on extensions of today’s knowledge and that involves uncertainty. </li></ul>06/07/09
    17. 17. Management (cont.) <ul><li>Organizations must develop planning tools that can deal with uncertainty and convert unstructured data and insights into intelligence that can be used to make decisions. </li></ul><ul><li>Technology forecasting can reduce uncertainty and the possibility of financial loss resulting from a poor decision. </li></ul>06/07/09
    18. 18. TF Process 06/07/09 Inputs Techniques Output Decision/Question Qualitative Quantitative Time Probability Planning Implementation Assumptions Data Insight Judgement Projective Normative
    19. 19. Types of Forecasts 06/07/09 What are possible futures? Can we find a path to get to those futures? What is the trend? What may affect the trend? What are the potential futures? Future 1 Future 2 Today Normative Projective
    20. 20. Rationale for TF <ul><li>Technologies usually grow in an orderly manner over time and through practice </li></ul><ul><li>There is a consistency or pattern of technological change and abrupt deviations are not common </li></ul><ul><li>All innovations go through a process </li></ul><ul><li>Technology casts its shadow far ahead </li></ul><ul><li>Technological change is the response to various forces </li></ul>06/07/09
    21. 21. TF Applications <ul><li>Projections of rates at which new technologies will replace older ones </li></ul><ul><li>Assistance in the management of R&D </li></ul><ul><li>Evaluation of the present value of new technology </li></ul><ul><li>Identification and evaluation of new products/processes that present opportunities or threats </li></ul><ul><li>Analysis of new technologies that may change the strategies or operations </li></ul>06/07/09
    22. 22. Technology Life Cycle 06/07/09 Time (Effort, Experience) Utility Function S-Curve
    23. 23. Innovation Life Cycle <ul><li>Stage 1. Scientific findings; determination of opportunity or need </li></ul><ul><li>Stage 2. Demonstration of laboratory feasibility </li></ul><ul><li>Stage 3. Prototype or field trial </li></ul><ul><li>Stage 4. Commercial introduction or operational use </li></ul><ul><li>Stage 5. Widespread adoption </li></ul><ul><li>Stage 6. Diffusion </li></ul><ul><li>Stage7. Social or economic impact </li></ul>06/07/09
    24. 24. Stages of Innovation 06/07/09 Source: Martino
    25. 25. Internet 06/07/09 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4 Stage 5 Stage 6 Stage 7
    26. 26. Internet History <ul><li>1985: First registered domain name </li></ul><ul><li>1988: Internet Relay Chat (IRC) </li></ul><ul><li>1990: First commercial ISP </li></ul><ul><li>1990: Hypertext protocol </li></ul><ul><li>1991: World Wide Web </li></ul><ul><li>1992: Search tool </li></ul><ul><li>1993: Browser </li></ul><ul><li>1994: Banner ads </li></ul><ul><li>2000: DotCom’s </li></ul><ul><li>1958: Advanced Research Projects Agency (ARPA ) </li></ul><ul><li>1968: Packet switching network </li></ul><ul><li>1969: First four nodes on ARPAnet </li></ul><ul><li>1971: E-mail </li></ul><ul><li>1978: Usenet established </li></ul><ul><li>1983: Name server </li></ul><ul><li>1984: Domain Name System (DNS) </li></ul>06/07/09
    27. 27. Observations <ul><li>The full process of technological innovation takes a long time </li></ul><ul><li>Many factors influence the progress and direction of the technology </li></ul><ul><li>Government actions can impact technological innovation </li></ul><ul><li>Technological capabilities grow in an exponential manner </li></ul>06/07/09
    28. 28. Observations (cont.) <ul><li>Rates of technological improvement do not equate with revenue/profit </li></ul><ul><li>Accelerated progress happens when technologies interact </li></ul><ul><li>Mode of marketing and financing usage is significant </li></ul><ul><li>Strong present practices and values slow acceptance </li></ul>06/07/09
    29. 29. Observations (cont.) <ul><li>Innovation is delayed if substantial capital must be displaced </li></ul><ul><li>Exogenous events may alter progress significantly </li></ul><ul><li>Pull is stronger than push </li></ul>06/07/09
    30. 30. Four Causes of Reality <ul><li>Material </li></ul><ul><li>Formal </li></ul><ul><li>Productive </li></ul><ul><li>Final </li></ul>06/07/09
    31. 31. Four Causes of Reality <ul><li>Material </li></ul><ul><li>Formal </li></ul><ul><li>Productive </li></ul><ul><li>Final </li></ul><ul><li>Surveillance techniques </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Scanning </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Monitoring </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Tracking </li></ul></ul>06/07/09
    32. 32. Four Causes of Reality <ul><li>Material </li></ul><ul><li>Formal </li></ul><ul><li>Productive </li></ul><ul><li>Final </li></ul><ul><li>Trend analysis </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Analogy </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Precursor developments </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Trend extrapolation </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Limit curve </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Substitution analysis </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Multiple substitution analysis </li></ul></ul>06/07/09
    33. 33. Four Causes of Reality <ul><li>Material </li></ul><ul><li>Formal </li></ul><ul><li>Productive </li></ul><ul><li>Final </li></ul><ul><li>Expert opinion techniques </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Interviews </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Surveys </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Groups </li></ul></ul>06/07/09
    34. 34. Four Causes of Reality <ul><li>Material </li></ul><ul><li>Formal </li></ul><ul><li>Productive </li></ul><ul><li>Final </li></ul><ul><li>Integrative techniques </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Scenarios </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>SWOT </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Opportunity/Threat analysis </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Cross Impact Analysis </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Innovation map </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Mathematical models </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Road Map </li></ul></ul>06/07/09
    35. 35. A Market 06/07/09 Customers Technology Competition Demographic Sociopolitical Scientific Economic Embedded Supportive Enabling Present Potential Possible Direct Indirect Structural
    36. 36. 1. Introduction <ul><li>Description of Course </li></ul><ul><li>What is Technology? </li></ul><ul><li>Summary of Technology Forecasting </li></ul><ul><li>Applications of Technology Forecasting </li></ul><ul><li>Surveillance Techniques </li></ul>06/07/09
    37. 37. Surveillance <ul><li>Exploratory </li></ul><ul><li>Frame questions </li></ul><ul><li>Structure TF research </li></ul><ul><li>Increase awareness </li></ul><ul><li>Provide data for a TF </li></ul><ul><li>Identify emerging technologies, markets or players </li></ul>06/07/09
    38. 38. Surveillance Techniques <ul><li>Scanning </li></ul><ul><li>Monitoring </li></ul><ul><li>Tracking </li></ul>06/07/09 Not moving, getting larger Not moving, getting smaller Moving away Moving tangentially Moving towards
    39. 39. Surveillance 06/07/09 Boundaries Model Information
    40. 40. From Noise to Wisdom 06/07/09 Creativity Diversity Methodology Conversation Facts History Dynamics/Structures Environment Wisdom Knowledge Data/Insight Noise
    41. 41. Surveillance <ul><li>Articles - news, journals, magazines </li></ul><ul><li>Books </li></ul><ul><li>Reports </li></ul><ul><li>Internet </li></ul><ul><li>Bibliographic </li></ul><ul><li>Data/text mining </li></ul><ul><li>Patents </li></ul>06/07/09 Intelligence is a prime requirement for successful technology management. Alan Porter
    42. 42. Surveillance <ul><li>Articles - news, journals, magazines </li></ul><ul><li>Books </li></ul><ul><li>Reports </li></ul><ul><li>Internet </li></ul><ul><li>Bibliographic </li></ul><ul><li>Data/text mining </li></ul><ul><li>Patents </li></ul>06/07/09
    43. 43. Scanning <ul><li>One time </li></ul><ul><li>Continuous </li></ul>06/07/09
    44. 44. Scanning Examples <ul><li>Nanotechnology/MEMS </li></ul><ul><li>Internet security </li></ul>06/07/09
    45. 45. Scanning Examples <ul><li>Nanotechnology/MEMS </li></ul><ul><li>Internet security </li></ul>06/07/09
    46. 46. Nanotechnology 06/07/09 Source: Sandia 50  m
    47. 47. Scanning With a Search Engine 06/07/09
    48. 48. Search Engine Example 06/07/09
    49. 49. Search Engine Example 06/07/09
    50. 50. Search Engine Example 06/07/09
    51. 51. Search Engine Example 06/07/09
    52. 52. The World of Nanotechnology 06/07/09 Genomics Semiconductors MEMS Electronic Systems Mechanical Systems Electrical Systems Material Systems Molecular Construction
    53. 53. MEMS <ul><li>Micro Electro-mechanical Systems </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Optical switching </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Biomedics </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Tire sensors </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Cell phone </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Consumer electronics </li></ul></ul><ul><li>19% to 65% CGR </li></ul><ul><li>Other Applications </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Micro sensors </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Micro positioning systems </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Digital theater projectors </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Home digital video </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Data storage devices </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Optical tuners, attenuators </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Bio chip, medical products </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Under skin drug dispensing </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Other automotive </li></ul></ul>06/07/09
    54. 54. MEMS (cont.) 06/07/09
    55. 55. MEMS (cont.) <ul><li>Basically a Silicon technology </li></ul><ul><ul><li>No universal building block </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Scalability is different (similar to analog and mixed signal electronics) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Merging of mechanical and VLSI design </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Enabling technology </li></ul><ul><li>Covers nearly every aspect of the economies of developed countries </li></ul><ul><li>Combination of sensors/actuators/communication </li></ul><ul><li>Microsystems capable of performing tasks not otherwise possible </li></ul>06/07/09
    56. 56. MEMS (cont.) <ul><li>Pivotal application - tire pressure sensors </li></ul><ul><li>Moving from sensors to actuators with controlled microscopic movements </li></ul><ul><li>In US growing from 1.6 MEMS per person in 2002 to 5 in 2004 </li></ul><ul><li>Three distinct processing technologies </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Surface micromachining </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Bulk micromachining </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>LIGA (lithographie - lithography, galvanoformung - electroplating, abformung - molding) </li></ul></ul>06/07/09
    57. 57. MEMS (cont.) <ul><li>MEMS industry has proven to be an enabling technology in several key economic sectors such as telecommunications and healthcare. The explosion in MEMS-related research expenditures has led to the creation of a new industry containing such infrastructure components as companies specializing in providing design software, design services, specialty fabrication equipment, and fabrication facilities. The range of applications for MEMS covers nearly every aspect of the economies of the developed countries. The most basic advantages derived from size reduction are less power consumption, lower cost, and increased reliability. However, the most significant benefit is the ability of MEMS devices to communicate easily with semiconductor chips. This attribute has given rise to the development of microsystems capable of performing tasks that would be otherwise impossible. </li></ul>06/07/09
    58. 58. MEMS (cont.) <ul><li>Development of the MEMS piece of the wireless pie has required significant innovation at the engineering level, while the electronics that provide the wireless portion, by and large, are already well established. It is the pairing of the two that is opening the doors to markets and applications that have been waiting for such a breakthrough. </li></ul><ul><li>The field will change from today's sensor-based technology to an actuator technology, with very controlled microscopic movements. </li></ul><ul><li>The primary driver for the rapid expansion of MEMS remains the automotive industry, where manufacturers, especially automotive companies pushing to comply with new regulations for tire sensors, are deploying a wide range of MEMS products. </li></ul><ul><li>Sales of wireless MEMS sensors are forecast to reach about $700 million in 2006, largely based on the use of sensors in tire pressure monitoring systems. However, this application is not yet a done deal a pending government decision could either completely eliminate this segment beyond 2006, or provide for exponentially higher revenues. </li></ul>06/07/09
    59. 59. MEMS (cont.) <ul><li>Roadmaps </li></ul><ul><ul><li>NEXUS - 2000 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>MIG (MEMS Industry Group) - 2001 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>MANCEF (Micro and Nanotechnology Commercialization Education Foundation) - 2003 </li></ul></ul>06/07/09
    60. 60. MEMS Questions <ul><li>Wide range of market size? </li></ul><ul><li>Wide range of market growth rates? </li></ul><ul><li>Definition of market? </li></ul><ul><li>Resolution of process issues? </li></ul><ul><li>Tracking of tire pressure sensor application? Other wireless applications? </li></ul>06/07/09
    61. 61. Scanning Examples <ul><li>Nanotechnology/MEMS </li></ul><ul><li>Internet security </li></ul>06/07/09
    62. 62. Internet Security <ul><li>The Internet is the fastest growing communication media of all time. </li></ul><ul><li>The number of Internet users is growing at 97% per year and will reach between 500 million and 800 million people in 2000. </li></ul><ul><li>The number of Web pages is growing at 122% per year and will reach 2 billion pages in 2000. </li></ul><ul><li>The number of E-mail accounts exceeded 450 million in 1999. </li></ul>06/07/09
    63. 63. Internet Security (cont.) <ul><li>Wireless Internet devices and telecommuting increases the vulnerabilities of the system. </li></ul><ul><li>A significant portion of the growth of the Internet will take place outside of the US, increasing its vulnerability. </li></ul><ul><li>The primary concern is authenticity and integrity of messages and content. </li></ul><ul><li>As a result of all the growth taking place on the Internet, threat to the authenticity and integrity of the Internet is increasing. </li></ul>06/07/09
    64. 64. Internet Users <ul><li>Internet users are growing at 97% per year & reached between 500M and 800M in 2000 </li></ul><ul><li>Continued growth at this rate, the number of Internet users would equal the present world population in 2004 </li></ul><ul><li>Definition of users? </li></ul><ul><li>60% of the US adult population can now be reached by the Internet vs. 80% by telephone </li></ul><ul><li>The Internet is the fastest growing communication medium of all time </li></ul><ul><li>In the US there are more women online than men </li></ul><ul><li>Teenage girls are fastest growing age group </li></ul><ul><li>“ We are probably the most vulnerable country in the world because we are the most dependent on computers and the Internet” - Gen. David Baker (Ret.), the Washington Research Group </li></ul>06/07/09
    65. 65. Web Pages <ul><li>The number of web pages on the Internet is growing at 122% per year </li></ul><ul><li>If this growth rate continues, the number of pages will reach 100 trillion in 2005 </li></ul><ul><li>It is becoming more global </li></ul><ul><li>Web sites will have to provide pages in multiple languages with culturally significant content </li></ul><ul><li>“ The Internet is going to change fast during the next five years and change faster than it has during the last five years.” - Michael Erbschloe, Computer Economics </li></ul><ul><li>“ Data storage growth driven by the use of web paged applications, multimedia data and data warehousing implementations, is increasing the demand for better backup and recovery tools.” - Carolyn DiCenzo, Data Quest </li></ul>06/07/09
    66. 66. Internet Security Results <ul><li>Scan (111 pages) </li></ul><ul><li>Market forecast </li></ul><ul><li>Business & patent strategy </li></ul><ul><li>Business plan </li></ul>06/07/09
    67. 67. Surveillance <ul><li>Articles - news, journals, magazines </li></ul><ul><li>Books </li></ul><ul><li>Reports </li></ul><ul><li>Internet </li></ul><ul><li>Bibliographic </li></ul><ul><li>Data/text mining </li></ul><ul><li>Patents </li></ul>06/07/09
    68. 68. Data Analysis Methods <ul><li>Bibliographic methods - counts of publications and other bibliographic items can help track scientific and technological developments </li></ul><ul><li>Content analysis - elicits patterns of term usage to infer emphasis </li></ul><ul><li>Data mining - seeks to extract useful information form any form of data </li></ul>06/07/09 Source: Alan Porter
    69. 69. Bibliometrics 06/07/09 Area of interest: Metric Fundamental R&D: Number of items in databases - Science Citation Index Applied R&D: Number of items in databases - Engineering Index Development: Number of items in databases - U.S. Patents Application: Number of items in databases - Newspaper Abstracts Growth rate: Daily Trends over time in number of items Maturity: Topics receiving attention Source: Roger Hough
    70. 70. Data Mining (Anthrax) 06/07/09 Source: Oklahoma State University Technology Forecasting & Data Mining Team
    71. 71. Patent Analysis 06/07/09 Source: Roger Hough
    72. 72. Surveillance Summary <ul><li>Surveillance has value at the individual, project/team, organizational and national level </li></ul><ul><li>An organized surveillance project is a very valuable contribution to future success </li></ul><ul><li>It is the foundation of a good TF program </li></ul>06/07/09
    73. 73. Surveillance <ul><li>Scanning </li></ul><ul><li>Monitoring </li></ul><ul><li>Tracking </li></ul>06/07/09 Data, Insight Material Surveillance
    74. 74. Glocal Vantage, Inc. <ul><li>PO Box 161475 </li></ul><ul><li>Austin, TX 78716 </li></ul><ul><li>(512) 632-6586 </li></ul><ul><li>[email_address] </li></ul><ul><li> </li></ul><ul><li> </li></ul><ul><li>Twitter: innovant2003 </li></ul>Glocal Vantage, Inc.
    75. 75. Paul Schumann <ul><li>Futurist and innovation consultant </li></ul><ul><li>Application of web 2.0 to market & strategic intelligence systems </li></ul><ul><li>Web 2.0 tools & technologies </li></ul><ul><li>Application of web 2.0 to democratic processes </li></ul><ul><li>Broad perspectives on the future </li></ul><ul><li>Services </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Strategic market research & technology forecasting </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Intelligence systems consulting </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Seminars, webinars & presentations </li></ul></ul>Glocal Vantage, Inc.
    76. 76. This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution license. You may distribute, remix, tweak, and build upon this work, even commercially, as long as you credit me for the original creation as Paul Schumann, Glocal Vantage Inc,