Presentation to the Task Force by its co-chair, David Bloom. The presentation sets out salient facts describing Nigeria’s economy and population; explains the theory of the demographic dividend; and asks whether there is a demographic dividend in Nigeria’s future.

1. Prospects for Economic Growth in Nigeria: A Demographic Perspective Nigeria: The Next Generation First Meeting of the Task Force Abuja, Nigeria December 4-5, 2009

4. Nigeria’s economy has stagnated: No growth in income per capita Source: World Development Indicators, 2008

5. Indonesia and Pakistan have seen economic growth Source: World Development Indicators, 2008

6. Nigeria’s economy compared with world regions Source: World Development Indicators, 2008

7. Comparing economic growth rates Source: World Development Indicators, 2008 average annual growth rate of GDP/capita (PPP), 1980 - 2006

8. Nigeria’s population has grown rapidly Source: UN, World Population Prospects, 2008

9. Nigeria’s fertility rate has started to fall Source: UN, World Population Prospects, 2008

10. The infant mortality rate has fallen, but not steadily Source: UN, World Population Prospects, 2008

11. Life expectancy has risen, but not steadily Source: UN, World Population Prospects, 2008

12. Crude birth and death rates are falling Source: UN, World Population Prospects, 2008

13. Population growth has been rapid Source: UN, World Population Prospects, 2008

14. The ratio of working-age to non-working-age people has been pretty steady Source: UN, World Population Prospects, 2008

15. Changing age structure, 1950-2010: A 3-dimensional view Source: UN, World Population Prospects 2008

22. Average annual growth rate of GDP per capita, 1975-2005 Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators 2008

23. Changing age structure, 1960-2005 Source: UN, World Population Prospects

24. The Demographic Transition Population growth rate time Death rate Birth rate

29. Nigeria’s population is set to soar Source: UN, World Population Prospects, 2008

30. The fertility rate is expected to continue falling Source: UN, World Population Prospects, 2008

31. The infant mortality rate is projected to continue falling Source: UN, World Population Prospects, 2008

32. Life expectancy will continue to rise Source: UN, World Population Prospects, 2008

33. Crude birth and death rates will continue to fall Source: UN, World Population Prospects, 2008

34. Population growth rate will decline substantially Source: UN, World Population Prospects, 2008

35. The ratio of working-age to non-working-age people is set to increase dramatically Source: UN, World Population Prospects, 2008

36. Growth of the working-age to non-working-age ratio, 1960-2050 ( under 3 UN fertility scenarios) Source: UN, World Population Prospects 2008

37. The bottom line: demographic change can lead to economic growth

38. Comparing the growth rates of the working-age and non-working-age population Source: UN, World Population Prospects, 2008

39. Changing age structure, 1960-2050: Nigeria compared with Indonesia and Pakistan Source: UN, World Population Prospects 2008

40. Changing age structure, 1960-2050: Nigeria compared with East Asia Source: UN, World Population Prospects 2008

41. The size of the 60+ population will increase dramatically Source: UN, World Population Prospects, 2008