A new filter of the Future Agenda insights looking at the future of cities. Future Place looks at some of the core global drivers of change around urbanisation and the challenges faced by city living. It contrasts major smart city projects with other data enabled shifts and highlights the roles that more connected citizens and deeper collaboration may play as we move forward. This is the first of several new presentations from the Future Agenda team that will be shared over the next month or two. It is being first shared in a talk in Dubai

1. Future Place | Smart Ci0es vs. Smarter Ci0zens
Insights from Mul0ple Expert Discussions
30 March 2016 | Dubai The world’s leading open foresight program

2. Future Place | Smart Ci0es vs. Smarter Ci0zens
This talk provides a summary of what we heard from mul0ple expert
voices around the world – on how ci0es are changing, what is driving this change,
where will be the impacts and how and why these may evolve over the next decade.

3. Future Agenda
The Future Agenda is the world’s largest open foresight program
that accesses mul0ple views of the next decade so we can
all be beKer informed and s0mulate innova0on.

4. Looking Forwards
Organisa0ons increasingly want to iden0fy and understand
both the an0cipated and unexpected changes so
that they can be beKer prepared for the future.

5. Future Agenda in Numbers
The first Future Agenda programme engaged a wide range of views in
25 countries. Future Agenda 2.0 has doubled the face-to-face interac0on
and significantly raised online sharing, debate and discussion.
Future Agenda 1.0
1 HOST
16 TOPICS
25 COUNTRIES
50 WORKSHOPS
1500 ORGANISATIONS
Future Agenda 2.0
50 HOSTS
24 TOPICS
45 CITIES IN 35 COUNTRIES
120 WORKSHOPS
5000 ORGANISATIONS

6. FUTURE PLACE | DRIVERS OF CHANGE

7. Imbalanced Popula0on Growth
A growing popula0on adds another billion people but it is also rapidly ageing:
a child born next year will live 6 months longer than one born today. While
migra0on helps to rebalance, increasing dependency ra0os challenge many.

8. Developing World Mobility
This year 32 people an hour will be moving into Shanghai,
39 into Kinshasa and Jakarta, 42 into Mumbai and Karachi,
50 into Dhaka and 58 into Lagos.

9. Accelera0ng Displacement
Climate change, conflict, resource shortages, inequality and poli0cal elites unable or
unwilling to bring about necessary change all trigger unprecedented migra0on to the
North. Over the next 50 years, as many as 1 billion people could be on the move.

10. Infrastructure Deficit
Infrastructure is again becoming a source of compe00ve advantage.
Emerging economies invest in new railroads and highways for more effec0ve
movement of people and goods, while developed na0ons suffer from poor legacy.

11. Built-in Flexibility
The path to a connected, accessible and distributed infrastructure is fraught
with complex, costly and risky issues: Upgrading and repurposing systems to
make them more open and designing new buildings to be more flexible are key.

12. Access to Transport
The widespread need for individuals to travel short distances becomes
a key feature of urban design and regenera0on. Planners use transport
infrastructure to influence social change and lower carbon living.

13. Air Quality
Rising air pollu0on in many ci0es is killing people and becomes
a visible catalyst for changing mind-sets and policies across
health, energy, transporta0on and urban design.

14. Flooded Ci0es
The vast majority of our ci0es are not prepared for flooding. Many districts
and households can no longer get flood insurance and are in jeopardy.
It’s going to get worse before it gets beKer.

15. Basic Sanita0on
Poor sanita0on con0nues to impact public health and restrict social progress,
par0cularly for women. Governments and donor organisa0ons priori0se
measurement, educa0on and innova0on in a bid to drive change.

16. Eco-Civilisa0on
Over the past 40 years China has grown apace, mostly without concern for
long-term environmental impacts. However, now faced with major
challenges, a bright light of sustainable development is emerging.

17. Ci0zen-Centric Ci0es
Successful ci0es will be designed around the needs and desires of
increasingly empowered and enabled ci0zens - who are expec0ng
personalized services from the organisa0ons that serve them.

18. Intra City Collabora0on
Increasing compe00on between ci0es overrides na0onal boundaries and drives
change. They compete to aKract the best but also collaborate to avoid the
downside of success – over-crowding, under-resourcing and pollu0on.

19. Everything Connected
Over 1 trillion sensors are connected to mul0ple networks: everything that can
benefit from a connec0on has one. We deliver 10,000x more data 100x more
effec0vely but are concerned about the security of the informa0on that flows.

20. Off-Grid
People living off-grid, by inequality or choice, can exacerbate
societal division or improve privacy, health and wellbeing.
Either way, doing so provides fer0le ground for innova0on.

21. FUTURE PLACE | SMART CITIES vs. SMARTER CITIZENS

22. Paris – The Role Model?
For many, the blueprint for the sustainable, livable city
is Paris: Many urban planners and architects see this as a highly
efficient and social urban model that is aKrac0ve to residents.

23. From Cars To People
We are seeing a shif of focus from ci0es designed for cars to ci0es
designed for people. The influence of the Big 3 carmakers and major oil
companies is giving way to a new group of authorita0ve bodies.

24. Autonomous Vehicles
The shif to fully autonomous transport is an evolu0on via truck platoons on
highways and small urban delivery pods. Connected cars create the network
and test the technologies for the eventual revolu0onary driverless experience.

25. Amsterdam – People Centric Transport
Ofen seen as Europe’s most sustainable city, Amsterdam is
the global leader in suppor0ng non-motorized transport.
70% of mobility in Amsterdam is either walking or cycling.

26. The Smart City Ideal
Many see the perfect smart city to be one where renewable energy
systems, effec0ve transport networks and digital infrastructures all align
to create a super-efficient sustainable environment for everyone.

27. Global Drivers of Change
In the past few years we have seen clear progress on the
Smart Ci0es ambi0on – much of which has been focused
on collabora0on with some key mul0na0onals.

28. Cisco | Songdo
Songdo in Korea has embraced Cisco’s ‘Smart+Connected’ view of the city.
Ubiquitous data sharing, automated buildings, high-speed networks
and pervasive interac0on are all part of the connected ideal.

29. IBM | Rio de Janeiro
IBM’s Smarter Ci0es / Smarter Planet ini0a0ve has been embraced
by mayors in many key ci0es: Massive sensor networks, cloud-based
storage and predic0ve analy0cs have all been coming to the fore.

30. Intel | San Jose
Intel’s collabora0on with the city of San Jose is a demonstrator of
the capability of the ‘Internet of Things’ focused on improving air quality,
noise pollu0on and traffic flows via a more connected infrastructure.

31. Siemens| Masdar
Although well behind schedule, Masdar is s0ll aiming to be one of the most
sustainable, environmental and smart ci0es on the planet. Key partnerships
with Siemens are focused on more effec0ve, low energy systems.

32. Smarter Ci0zens
A big ques0on however concerns how much ci0es can be intelligent in
themselves vs. enabling ci0zens to be more informed, take beKer decisions
and so par0cipate more in the development and execu0on of key strategies.

33. Pervasive Smart Phones
At the core, 1bn ‘always-connected’ smartphones and the associated
high speed wireless networks are enabling a fundamental shif in
how personal data is generated, shared and used globally.

34. Predic0ve Analy0cs
The mining and (re)combina0on of mul0ple disparate data sources to
model and analyze current and historical facts is already enabling more
organisa0ons to beKer an0cipate and share emergent needs.

35. Singapore – Urban Mobility
With its popula0on doubling, Singapore sees mass transit as a core driver
for a more effec0ve city – By 2030, 80% of households will be within a 10
minute walk of a train sta0on and 75% of journeys will be on public systems.

36. New York – Engaged Ci0zens
As the pioneer in providing open connec0vity for all, New York has been
a hot-spot for the development of ci0zen based networks: The Bryant
Park Restora0on Corpora0on was one of the first catalysts for change.

37. London – Open Data
London has more open public data sets than any other European city.
It is fast becoming a leading centre for more intelligent use of shared
informa0on for greater collabora0on and beKer decision making.

38. The Value of Data
As organisa0ons try to retain as much informa0on about their customers as
possible, data becomes a currency with a value and a price. It therefore
requires a marketplace where anything that is informa0on is represented.

39. Christchurch – Sensing City
Following the 2011 earthquake, Christchurch in New Zealand is taking advantage
of an unprecedented opportunity to rethink the city and is introducing
integrated sensor networks to improve data sharing.

40. Floa0ng Ci0es
The ten most ‘at risk ci0es’ from climate change globally already have a
combined popula0on of over 150m and are projected to have grown by a
further 50% by 2025 – Few, if any, will be insured.

41. Different Ci0es – Different Solu0ons
In seeking new models, organisa0ons such as Shell have recognised that
global challenges require local solu0ons - but different city types can
also adopt similar approaches to improving efficiency.

42. FUTURE PLACE | IMPLICATIONS

43. Data-Conscious Ci0zens
The need for ci0zens to understand how data is used will grow. Educa0on will be
needed to combat new inequali0es, and enable people to fully take part in society:
understanding data will become part of civic self-consciousness.

44. Deeper Collabora0on
Partnerships shif to become more dynamic, long-term, democra0sed,
mul0-party collabora0ons. Compe0tor alliances and wider public par0cipa0on
drive regulators to create new legal frameworks for open, empathe0c collabora0on.

45. “Ci0es have the capability of providing something for everybody, only
because, and only when, they are created by everybody.”
Jane Jacobs - The Death and Life of Great American Ci9es

46. Future Agenda
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