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Holiday Shopping 2014Online Trends and Forecast
Yory Wurmser
Retail Analyst
September 18, 2014 2. © 2014 eMarketer Inc.
Agenda
US ecommerce forecast for 2014 holiday season
Mobile’s expanding role in US ecommerce
Emerging technology trends this season
Fulfillment: Are last year’s shipping issues resolved?
Key takeaways
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US retail ecommerce will grow 16.6%this holiday season, up from last year’s 15.3% rise
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Ecommerce accounts for a growing share of US retail sales during the holiday season 6. © 2014 eMarketer Inc.
What’s driving this year’s strong ecommerce growth?
1.Greater comfort with mobile buying
2.Improved retail sales overall
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1.More consumers are getting comfortable with buying on their mobile devices … 8. © 2014 eMarketer Inc.
… leading to more mobile sales
US retail mcommerce sales will grow 37.3% in 2014
Mcommerce’sshare of US retail ecommerce will reach 19.0% in 2014 9. © 2014 eMarketer Inc.
Mobile shopping plays an even bigger role during the holiday season
In 2013, Black Friday was the season’s biggest mobile sales day
People bought with their phones and tablets while waiting in line
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2.A strong year for ecommerce will mirror an improved season for US retail sales overall
Source: eMarketer, Sep 2014 11. © 2014 eMarketer Inc.
Despite solid sales growth, three factors will keep retail from excelling this holiday season
Image source: Shutterstock 12. © 2014 eMarketer Inc.
1.Slow real-income growth
Real income in the US is up 2.3% since Jan. 2014
But it’s down 2.0% overall since Dec. 2012
Per capita real income is down 8% since 2007
Source: BEA, Aug. 2014
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Slow real-income growth leaves consumers cautious
“The big issue is the economy. You’re not going to see big sales growth until you see real-income growth.”
—Craig Johnson, president of Consumer Growth Partners 14. © 2014 eMarketer Inc.
2.Retailers overestimated consumer demand in 2013
Image source: Shutterstock 15. © 2014 eMarketer Inc.
Retailers are making conservative inventory choices in 2014
“ [Last year], the conversion rates were starting to fall below plans, the pricing pressure started to get significant, and the promotional levels started to elevate.… [This year], we’re seeing very, very lean levels of inventory going into the back half [of the year]. Retailers would rather compromise sales for better profitability.”
—Stephanie Wissink, co-director of research and senior research analyst at Piper Jaffray 17. © 2014 eMarketer Inc.
A short season will only marginally affect total sales but shift retailer and shopper behavior
“We are going to start seeing much more aggressive ads a lot sooner in the year. People tend to procrastinate and there will just be fewer days to buy items.”
—Clay Olivier, CEO of Volusion 18. © 2014 eMarketer Inc.
Recap: Despite challenges, US retail ecommerce will have a stellar holiday season
Sales will grow 16.6%, boosted by:
1.More mobile commerce
2.5.0% year-over-year growth in overall US retail sales
Three factors will hold spending back:
1.Slow real-income growth
2.Cautious retailers
3.Short season 20. © 2014 eMarketer Inc.
Mobile sales are still relatively small …
1.2%
of US retail sales occur on mobile devices
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… but mobile’s impact on shopping is much larger
In 2014:
145.9 million USmobile shoppers
74%of US digital shoppers shop with their phones
23 million more US mobile shoppers
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The majority of US smartphone owners in all age cohorts shop in-store with their phones 23. © 2014 eMarketer Inc.
The influence of mobile shopping on total retail sales is huge
In the 2014 holiday season, mobile shopping (i.e., research) before or during in-store trips will influence between a quarter and a half of all US retail sales, eMarketer estimates 24. © 2014 eMarketer Inc.
Recap:
Mcommerce sales are still only a small part of total US retail sales
The majority of US shoppers are mobile shoppers
Mobile will influence between a quarter and half of all US in-store retail sales this holiday season
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Ubiquitous mobile shopping is spurring retailers to test two emerging technologies this season
1.Beacons
2.Visual search 28. © 2014 eMarketer Inc.
Beacons will be more common this year
“ More than half of the top 100 retailers are actively working with beacon technology now. They’re in different stages, but all of them are evaluating, testing, piloting, trying it out. We’re going to see at least several retailers announce very large- scale, public rollouts to support holiday campaigns.”
—Rob Murphy, VP of marketing at Swirl 29. © 2014 eMarketer Inc.
HBC is one of the first major retailers to deploy beacons system-wide
HBC will cover 130 of its Hudson’s Bay Co. and Lord & Taylor stores with beacons
Each store will have multiple beacons
Offers will come via HBC apps and third-party coupon app SnipSnap
Image source: HBC.com 30. © 2014 eMarketer Inc.
Third-party apps overcome the limits of branded retailer apps
Beacon provider Swirl announced a partnership with Epicurious
Epicurious app holders will receive messages when entering stores of partnering retailers
Image source: iTunes 31. © 2014 eMarketer Inc.
eMarketer’s view on beacons this holiday season:
Retailers will expand experiments with beacons
Direct effect on sales this season will be limited
Beacon’s biggest impact will come via third-party apps
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Amazon.com’s Firefly jumpstarted visual search
Image source: Yory Wurmser 34. © 2014 eMarketer Inc.
Retailers see opportunity in visual search
“We’re hearing a lot of brands say that they want to be able to capitalize on impulse purchasing at the moment of inspiration when they see something.”
—Mark Elfenbein, CEO of Slyce 35. © 2014 eMarketer Inc.
Target’s In a Snap, an early branded visual search tool:
Works with Target advertising
Does not need QR or bar codes
More examples should follow this season
Image source: In a Snap 36. © 2014 eMarketer Inc.
eMarketer’s view on visual search:
Firefly has ushered in an era of visual search experimentation
Firefly and other early versions have limited functionality, but newer search tools show promise
Until visual search can readily identify objects in the wild, and from various angles, consumers will not use it widely
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Fulfillment: Will Retailers Avoid Last Year’s Problems? 38. © 2014 eMarketer Inc.
2013: Missed deliveries made headlines
Midwest snowstorms hit FedEx and UPS hubs
Roughly 33% of major etailers tracked by Stella Service missed deliveries
Amazon, Kohl’s and Nordstrom were among the retailers affected
Image source: Shutterstock 39. © 2014 eMarketer Inc.
Consumers depend on reliability of cutoff dates
96%
deem guaranteed delivery dates important
46%
will look elsewhere after a late delivery
Source: CFI Group 40. © 2014 eMarketer Inc.
2014: Shippers are building networks to avoid last year’s issues
UPS will hire 90K to 95K seasonal employees, up 10K from last year
UPS has invested an extra 21% in new technology and manpower (Source: WSJ)
FedEx also expects to hire more seasonal workers
Image source: UPS 41. © 2014 eMarketer Inc.
It won’t be enough
“Consumers are increasingly taking advantage of two-day shipping and waiting until the last minute to do their holiday shopping. … The trend is growing faster than the logistics that are there to keep up with it.”
—Chris Mason, co-founder of Branding Brand 42. © 2014 eMarketer Inc.
Retailers are overcoming the limits of the shipping network in 3 ways:
1.Distributive shipping
2.In-store pickup
3.A commitment to removing shipping bottlenecks
Image source: UPS 43. © 2014 eMarketer Inc.
1.Distributive fulfillment
Image source: Shopatron
Online Order
Order management system 44. © 2014 eMarketer Inc.
Shipping from stores gives multichannel retailers a way to fight back against pure plays
“Distributed technology is fundamentally the most resilient and most diverse system that can exist. You have two hands. If you lose one, you’ve got another one.”
—Ed Stevens, CEO of Shopatron
‘Zone-skipping’
Increased productivity of store staff
Reduced shipping times 45. © 2014 eMarketer Inc.
Distributive fulfillment: Modell’s
Harmonized online and in-store inventory
Began drop-shipping to increase available styles and sizes
Added ship-from-store, and continues to add stores to the system
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Image source: Modell’s.com 46. © 2014 eMarketer Inc.
2.In-store pickup: Customers can fulfill online orders themselves
40%of in-store pickups lead to additional in-store purchases (Source: Shopatron)
10% of Target’s online orders are for in-store pickup
In-store pickup can serve last-minute orders
Image source: Target.com 47. © 2014 eMarketer Inc.
Consumers who default to in-store pickup remain the exception 48. © 2014 eMarketer Inc.
3.Successful etailers make it easy for the shipping companies
Image from Zappos.com 49. © 2014 eMarketer Inc.
Zappos.com: Few problems last year despite late cutoff date
“Inventorying all product is one variable of [our success]. We also have a great relationship with UPS and are committed within our company and all of our fulfillment centers to meet those deadlines and get those packages out as soon as possible to our customers.”
—Maura Dailey, senior manager of customer loyalty at Zappos.com 50. © 2014 eMarketer Inc.
Zappos minimizes potential breakdowns
All products in-stock
No drop-shipping
Priority relationships with shippers
Phone reps focus on service
Image source: Zappos.com
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eMarketer’s viewpoint on fulfillment:
Shippers are better prepared this year
Problems will persist nonetheless, because shoppers expect quick delivery
Multichannel retailers have an opening to capture last-minute shoppers via in-store pickup
Forward-looking etailers are simplifying fulfillment processes and building relationships with shippers 52. © 2014 eMarketer Inc.
Takeaways
US retail ecommerce sales will grow 16.6%year-over-yearin the 2014 holiday season
US retail sales overall will have a good season, with sales up 5.0%. But slow income growth and retailer caution will keep that figure from being even higher
The ubiquity of mobile shopping will convince retailers to test new technologiesthat bring the physical and virtual shopping worlds together (e.g., beacons and visual search)
Fulfillment will remain a challenge, but retailers will turn to distributive fulfillment, in-store pickup and better coordination with shippers to mitigate problems
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Susan Wall|VP, Marketing | Bronto Software 54. Bronto’s Holiday Resource Center
Visit Bronto’s Holiday Resource Center to find everything a retail marketer needs for the holidays.
•2014 Holiday Planning Guide
•Top 12 Marketing Tips for the Holidays
•Interactive plans, checklists and guides
•On-demand holiday webinars, plus much more!
resources.bronto.com/holidays 55. Tips & Tricks Newsletter
•Expertise from the field
•White papers
•Customer success stories
•Blog posts
bronto.com/resources 56. © 2014 eMarketer Inc.
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Yory Wurmser
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