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eMarketer Webinar: Lessons from Holiday Shopping 2015—What You Need to Know for 2016

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eMarketer expected a strong 2015 holiday season for ecommerce and total retail sales. In this webinar, we take a look at the final results and review what retailers need to know about changing consumer behaviors to keep up in 2016. Topics include: How the overall retail sector performed during the 2015 holiday season; Why experiential gifts were one significant holiday trend of 2015; How consumers used their phones and other mobile devices to shop last holiday season; How deal-seeking behaviors are changing the holiday shopping calendar.

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eMarketer Webinar: Lessons from Holiday Shopping 2015—What You Need to Know for 2016

  1. 1. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. Lessons from Holiday Shopping 2015: What You Need to Know for 2016 Yory Wurmser Retail Analyst February 25, 2016 Made possible by
  2. 2. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. What Happened in the 2015 Season?
  3. 3. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. Ecommerce thrived while overall US retail sales disappointed during the 2015 holiday season 1.7% 13.4% Ecommerce US Retail Overall Image source: commons.Wikimedia.org
  4. 4. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. A weak overall retail climate makes the ecommerce growth recorded during the holiday season even more impressive
  5. 5. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. Oil prices weighed down overall US retail sales in Q4 2015  Gas station sales account for roughly 10% of US retail sales  Q4 retail sales growth was 1.5% overall, but 3.7% when gas station sales are excluded
  6. 6. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. Even separating out oil prices, foot traffic was down in stores  5% drop in foot traffic on Black Friday, excluding car dealerships and grocery (Foursquare)  6.4% drop in foot traffic over the season (RetailNext) Image Source: Jtalledo, commons.Wikimedia.org
  7. 7. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. Two big factors boosted US ecommerce during the 2015 holiday period … Image Source: Yory Wurmser
  8. 8. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. 1. Amazon had a tremendous holiday season  24.1% growth in US sales during the “Cyber 5” (11/26–11/30) (Channel Advisor)  16.8% growth in US sales for November and December (Channel Advisor)  35% YoY growth in Amazon Prime membership, ending the year at 54 million (Consumer Intelligence Research Partners)  $88 billion in 2015 sales, up 33% from 2014 (Macquarie Research)  26% of US ecommerce in 2015 was on Amazon and Amazon Marketplace (Macquarie Research and eMarketer calculations)
  9. 9. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. More than a third of visits to the top 15 US retail websites in December 2015 went to Amazon
  10. 10. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. A slight majority of US internet users planned to conduct most of their 2015 holiday shopping on Amazon
  11. 11. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. 2. Smartphone-based mcommerce growth in 2015 was explosive Source: eMarketer Smartphone Mcommerce growth = 95.8% Optimized websites Easier payment Bigger screens
  12. 12. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. Mobile sales growth exceeded desktop growth by nearly 10 times during the holiday season 6% 59% Source: comScore
  13. 13. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. Smartphones’ share of seasonal ecommerce grew in 2015, while tablets’ share of traffic rose  Smartphone traffic share climbed from 31.2% to 40.5%  Smartphone sales share rose from 9.1% to 16.4%  Tablet traffic share fell 1.5 percentage points to 11.9%  Tablet sales share grew from 13.4% to 14.6%
  14. 14. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. Mobile’s performance was even better on peak shopping days
  15. 15. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. Although mobile conversion rates lag behind desktop, the gap is narrowing  Roughly 3:1 ratio in 2015, compared to a nearly 4:1 ratio in 2014
  16. 16. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. Mobile conversion rates are improving due to better mobile optimization “If we look at our clients that have the best, lowest friction mobile checkout, and have the best mobile executions, they’re nearing two to one as their average mobile gap.” —Jason Goldberg, Senior Vice President, Commerce and Content Practice, Razorfish
  17. 17. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. Forecast for 2016
  18. 18. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. In 2016, smartphones will once again lead other channels in sales growth Retail Ecommerce Smartphone Commerce Retail Overall 2.0% Source: eMarketer Mcommerce 13.0% 49.9% 39.1% 1.1%Non-Ecommerce Retail
  19. 19. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. Quarterly growth in overall US retail sales in 2016 will peak during Q3 and the back-to-school season
  20. 20. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. Retail ecommerce should follow this pattern, with Q3 as the peak growth quarter in 2016
  21. 21. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. Holiday 2016 should be roughly in line with 2015’s performance  13.3% ecommerce growth for holiday 2016 will be in line with 2015  1.8% growth in total retail will be roughly the same as 2015, but less oil-driven  Ecommerce will surpass 10% of total retail for the first time in 2016
  22. 22. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. Additional Trends to Watch in 2016
  23. 23. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. 1. Experiential gifts will continue to become more important Image Source: Airbnb.com
  24. 24. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. Experiential gifts are becoming prevalent, especially among US millennials Would like to receive an experiential gift: Total: 36.5% 35–44: 43.4% 25–34: 49.6% 18–24: 55.0% Source: NRF, December 2015
  25. 25. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. Top types of gift card purchases planned for November 2015:  Restaurant: 35%*  Department store: 34%*  Cash card: 23%*  Coffee shop: 20%*  Entertainment: 17%* *Percentage of US consumers Source: NRF, November 2015 Image source: www.starbucks.com
  26. 26. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. Starbucks gift cards are one of the leading presents in the US 1 in 6 US Consumers received a Starbucks gift card in the 2015 holiday season Up from 1 in 7 in 2014 Source: Starbucks
  27. 27. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. Food service and drinking place sales continue to grow more quickly than US retail sales overall
  28. 28. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. 2. Better fulfillment options will lengthen the online shopping season Image source: www.clipartbest.com
  29. 29. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. In 2015, roughly half of US internet users began holiday shopping before Thanksgiving
  30. 30. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. Early holiday shopping starts before Halloween 25% of holiday shoppers started before Halloween, and 3% were almost finished by Halloween in 2015 Source: Civic Science
  31. 31. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. Thanksgiving Day is now the start of the core holiday season In 2015, it overtook Black Friday as the busiest digital shopping day of the US holiday season on the Connexity network
  32. 32. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. Thanksgiving retail ecommerce sales growth outpaced Black Friday and Cyber Monday last year
  33. 33. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. Final days before Christmas had the highest year-over-year ecommerce growth rate in 2015 56% YoY increase in ecommerce sales on December 23 Source: Adobe
  34. 34. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. Retailers feel a sense of urgency to deliver holiday purchases more quickly “People know that they can shop later because they know that it will be delivered. … We saw that the average number of days to ship [via] ground delivery was about 3.45. This year, there were 10 percent of the retailers [in our study] that actually shipped in one day. … Retailers feel a logistical sense of urgency to deliver faster.” —Lauren Freedman, President, the e-tailing group
  35. 35. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. A quarter of US internet users say that same-day delivery of holiday purchases is important
  36. 36. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. 3. Buy online, pick up in-store (BOPUS) is growing Image Source: www.nordstrom.com
  37. 37. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. US holiday shoppers used BOPUS at record levels in 2015 32% of holiday shoppers bought online for in-store pickup Source: International Council of Shopping Centers
  38. 38. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. Some US retailers saw BOPUS surpass 10% of ecommerce sales in 2015
  39. 39. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. A majority of US internet users ages 21 to 39 planned to use BOPUS for holiday shopping in 2015
  40. 40. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. Cost and speed have been the leading reasons that consumers choose BOPUS
  41. 41. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. Role of Shopping Apps During the Holidays
  42. 42. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. Despite apps’ popularity, mobile shoppers still turn to their mobile browser for holiday shopping  Nearly two-thirds of US smartphone and tablet users preferred mobile browsers for their holiday shopping in 2015
  43. 43. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. A minority of US internet users download retailer apps 25% of US internet users use a retailer app (excluding Amazon’s) Source: TSYS
  44. 44. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. Mobile web drives the majority of mobile shopping traffic More than twice as many shopping visits take place on mobile web compared with apps Source: Morgan Stanley
  45. 45. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. But for leading US retail sites, apps capture the majority of time spent via mobile device
  46. 46. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. A clear majority of US mobile users prefer to interact with their favorite brands via an app
  47. 47. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. During Q4 2015, the majority of mobile transactions were on apps  Apps drove 54% of mobile transactions in Q4 2015 (Criteo)  Apps had conversion rates 20% higher and average order values 2% greater than desktop in Q4 2015 (Criteo)
  48. 48. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. New retailer apps are designed less as catalogs and more as omnichannel tools “The first generation of application design was just imitating the mcommerce experience and imitating the dot-com experience. You had to have your product catalog on the phone. … But now what you’re seeing is that there is this new phase of mobile retail apps 2.0 where the savvier retailers are stepping back from that and saying this tool really connects the entire brand and store experience.” —Maya Mikhailov, CMO and Co-Founder, GPShopper
  49. 49. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. There is a very large in-store component to mobile shopping
  50. 50. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. Recap 1. US smartphone mcommerce nearly doubled in 2015, and will continue to outpace growth in other channels in 2016 2. More varied and effective fulfillment options are extending ecommerce later into the holiday season and into new areas 3. Consumers are shifting more spending toward experiences, which will continue to suppress sales growth in traditional retail
  51. 51. 3 Tips to Have a Strong 2016 Mary (Shirley) Sheehan, Head of Product Marketing
  52. 52. adroll.com, @AdRoll Tip 1: Keep your campaigns running to snap up high quality inventory at low CPMs What to do: ● Retarget previous purchasers with strong calls to action (CTAs), shopping incentives and new product offerings. ● Run loyalty campaigns based on your customer relationship management (CRM) data to reach previous purchasers. After the holiday rush, CPMs drop significantly, but online shopping activity remains the same.
  53. 53. Tip 2: Make a great impression with clever creative adroll.com, @AdRoll What to do: ● Test copy that offers great discounts and incentives, like ‘End-of-Season Sale” and “Free Shipping!” ● Try a creative refresh. Make sure your ads are relevant and speak to the changing seasons. ● Use personalized dynamic ads and carousel ads to add engagement and higher CTRs. The right words and images can go a long way. Keep your ads fresh and compelling to win over more customers and make more sales.
  54. 54. Tip 3: Drive new customers to your site with AdRoll Prospecting adroll.com, @AdRoll How it helps: Predict new customers Serve targeted ads based on real-time interest. Don’t just rely on demographic data. Get results with our dynamic intent data. Enhanced Retargeting Campaigns Amplify the reach of AdRoll Retargeting by pairing it with Prospecting. Prospecting drives new customers, and retargeting brings them back for more. Prospecting is a customer acquisition product that connects you to new, high quality audiences who behave like your existing customers. Prospecting gives you a new way to reach additional customers.
  55. 55. Email webinars@adroll.com for more information Follow @adroll
  56. 56. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. Learn more about digital marketing with an eMarketer corporate subscription Around 200 eMarketer reports are published each year. Here are some recent reports you may be interested in: Q&A Session Made possible by You will receive an email tomorrow with a link to view the deck and webinar recording. To learn more: www.emarketer.com/products 800-405-0844 or webinars@emarketer.com Yory Wurmser Lessons from Holiday Shopping 2015: What You Need to Know for 2016  Buy Buttons: Where Social Meets Mobile Commerce  Loyalty Marketing: Creating Stickiness in a Distracted World  Retailers and Digital Commerce: Trends and Benchmarks for Five Sectors  US Mcommerce 2015: eMarketer’s Forecast and Trends

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