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eMarketer Webinar: Mid-Holiday Season Retail Update & Post-Thanksgiving Recap

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With Thanksgiving, Black Friday and Cyber Monday in the rearview, some of the hottest shopping days are over. Join us for a complimentary eMarketer webinar to find out how shoppers behaved between Turkey Day and Cyber Monday—and what it might mean for the rest of the holiday season. This webinar will be covering: eMarketer’s holiday shopping forecast; how shoppers responded to heavy early discounting by retailers; digital and mobile sales and traffic; key search terms and other digital retail indicators.

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eMarketer Webinar: Mid-Holiday Season Retail Update & Post-Thanksgiving Recap

  1. 1. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. Made possible by Mid-Holiday Season Retail Update & Post-Thanksgiving Recap Yory Wurmser Retail Analyst December 8, 2016
  2. 2. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. Agenda  How accurate was eMarketer’s 2016 holiday forecast?  How are multichannel retailers faring against Amazon?  How are retailer strategies affecting consumer buying patterns?  Is mobile living up to its predicted growth?  What products are selling well?  What should this all mean for the rest of the holiday season? #eMwebinar
  3. 3. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. Rewind: eMarketer’s September Forecast for the 2016 Holiday Season
  4. 4. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. Overall retail sales growth will be moderate, but ecommerce will rise rapidly this holiday season  Retail ecommerce sales will jump 17.2% for the season, the highest rate since 2011  Retail sales will rebound slightly from a weak 2015 to rise 3.3% #eMwebinar
  5. 5. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. Short Answer: #eMwebinar
  6. 6. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. Longer Answer: A lot has happened since September 1. Robust economic performance reported for Q3 and early Q4 2. The Trump upset in the US presidential election 3. Thanksgiving Weekend slightly exceeded expectations for online sales #eMwebinar
  7. 7. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. 1. Economic performance since September: Q3 economic figures were revised upward 3.2% GDP growth, up from 2.9% estimate Source: Department of Commerce, Nov. 2016 2.8% increase in household purchases, up from 2.1% estimate Source: Department of Commerce, Nov. 2016 #eMwebinar
  8. 8. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. Preliminary October and November numbers also indicate a strong US economy October 0.6% increase in incomes in October, best since April Source: Department of Commerce, Nov. 2016 1.4% Increase in spending on nondurable goods Source: Department of Commerce, Nov. 2016 November 216,000 additional private sector jobs Source: ADP, Nov. 2016 4.6% Unemployment rate in November, lowest since August 2007 Source: Department of Labor, Dec. 2016 #eMwebinar
  9. 9. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. Consumer confidence rebounded strongly in November 107.1 was the highest consumer confidence level since July 2007 101.8 107.1 90 110 Aug Sept Oct Nov Source: The Conference Board, Nov. 2016 #eMwebinar
  10. 10. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. 2. Online shopping around the election was depressed 11% 16% 16% 12% 4% 1% -5% -16% -23% 24% -30% 0% 30% Product Page Views on the Hooklogic Network Source: Hooklogic, Nov. 2016 #eMwebinar
  11. 11. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. As a result of the election, ecommerce growth in the first half of November came in low 1.35% increase in online sales between November 1 and November 14 Source: Adobe, Nov. 2016 #eMwebinar
  12. 12. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. 3. Thanksgiving Weekend saw healthy gains in spending per shopper $102 $128 50 100 150 2013 2014 2015 2016 Source: Gallup Tracking Poll, Nov. 26-28, 2016 #eMwebinar
  13. 13. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. A steep fall in foot traffic in early 2015 moderated during the Thanksgiving Weekend Source: Shoppertrak, Nov. 2016 #eMwebinar
  14. 14. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. … But in-store retail sales still fell -5.0% net sales on Thanksgiving Day and Black Friday Source: RetailNext, Dec. 2016 #eMwebinar
  15. 15. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. Amazon Prime members are increasingly skipping Black Friday crowds 65% 59% 0% 100% 2015 2016 Prime Members Who Will Shop in Stores on Black Friday Source: InfoScout, Nov. 26 survey of Prime members #eMwebinar
  16. 16. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. Ecommerce shoppers outnumbered shoppers in physical stores during Thanksgiving Weekend 44% of consumers shopped online 40% of consumers shopped in-store Source: National Retail Federation and Prosper Insights & Analytics, Nov. 2016 #eMwebinar
  17. 17. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. Thanksgiving Weekend online sales went up sharply #eMwebinar
  18. 18. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. Only 19% of US smartphone users bought the majority of their purchases spontaneously #eMwebinar
  19. 19. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. Net effect: eMarketer’s forecast for ecommerce sales growth and retail overall holds September–November economic performance Election effect Thanksgiving and Cyber Week Total Retail Ecommerce #eMwebinar
  20. 20. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. Big Retailers Launch Online Counterattack
  21. 21. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. Backstory: Amazon has been laying waste to other retailers in ecommerce 22% 27% 30% 34% 40% 46% 0% 100% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Amazon’s Share of Retail Ecommerce Sales Source: Institute for Local Self-Reliance #eMwebinar
  22. 22. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. Amazon is becoming a leading product search engine for mobile shoppers #eMwebinar
  23. 23. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. Backstory: Amazon has been laying waste to other retailers in ecommerce Amazon accounted for at least 37% of US ecommerce sales from November 24–28 Source: Internet Retailer, Nov. 29, 2016 #eMwebinar
  24. 24. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. Retailers fought back this year with digital advertising and steeper discounts  More digital ad spend: 17.9% year-over-year increase on Thanksgiving Day and 13.8% jump on Black Friday Source: AdRoll, Nov. 2016  More notifications: Retailers sent 56% more app notifications during the two weeks before Thanksgiving in 2016 than in 2015 Source: Urban Airship, Nov. 2016  More Product Listing Ads: Sales produced by PLAs were up 53% year-over-year during Thanksgiving–Cyber Monday Source: Merkle, Dec. 2016  Steeper discounts: Percentage-off deals averaged 26.3% across the Cyber 5 weekend, compared with 25.8% in 2015 Source: RetailMeNot, Dec. 2016  More sales promotions: 36.2% of shoppers “bought all of their” Thanksgiving Weekend purchases on sale compared with 32.5% in 2015 Source: National Retail Federation and Prosper Insights & Analytics, Nov. 2016 #eMwebinar
  25. 25. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. While digital spending went up, total ad spending by big retailers went down -9% drop in overall retailer ad spending in the four weeks ending on November 27 Source: Kantar Media, Dec. 2016 #eMwebinar
  26. 26. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. Retailers also seem to be doing a better job with in-store pickup of online purchases  87% of consumers surveyed said that in-store pickup met or exceeded their expectations between Thanksgiving and Cyber Monday #eMwebinar
  27. 27. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. Net promoter scores for online shoppers of omnichannel retailers went up in November 39in October 2016 to 45 in November 2016 Amazon stayed flat, albeit at a higher level Source: Bain & Company, Dec. 2016 #eMwebinar
  28. 28. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. Multichannel retailers gained share of desktop commerce on Thanksgiving and Black Friday 39% 32% 25% 61% 68% 75% 0% 100% Pure Play Multichannel Cyber Monday Black Friday Percent share of desktop ecommerce Thanksgiving 43% 27% 17% 57% 73% 83% 0% 100% Pure Play Multichannel Cyber Monday Black Friday Percent share of desktop ecommerce Thanksgiving 2015 2016 Source: comScore, Dec. 2016 #eMwebinar
  29. 29. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. The effect has been an at least temporary halt to Amazon’s growing share of ecommerce revenue #eMwebinar
  30. 30. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. Thanksgiving Promotions Starting Earlier and Ending Later
  31. 31. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. Added effect of retailers’ battle with Amazon: Black Friday sales starting before Thanksgiving (pre-Black Friday Sale) BLACK FRIDAY(select deals) Image: Creative commons November 2016 #eMwebinar
  32. 32. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. ‘Thanksgiving Eve’ is becoming a bigger event 39% of consumers expected to start holiday weekend shopping on the day before Thanksgiving, up from 34% in 2015 Source: Nielsen, Nov. 2016 37% YoY increase in same-store online sales on Thanksgiving Eve Source: Rakuten, Nov. 2016 54% Higher performance for in-app shopping events compared with a normal Wednesday Source: AppsFlyer, Nov. 2016 #eMwebinar
  33. 33. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. Deals also extend past Cyber Monday, creating what’s being called Cyber Week #eMwebinar
  34. 34. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. Although desktops lead on Cyber Monday, shopping is no longer confined to the workplace The peak online shopping hour on Cyber Monday: NetElixir: 7-8pm Hooklogic: 8-9pm Bloomreach: 6:30pm #eMwebinar
  35. 35. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. Mobile Commerce Revolution Continues
  36. 36. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. US retail mcommerce sales are expected to accelerate in 2016  Mcommerce sales will rise 43.2% in 2016 #eMwebinar
  37. 37. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. The largest part of mcommerce growth will come from purchases via smartphones #eMwebinar
  38. 38. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. Mcommerce sales saw strong growth between Thanksgiving Day and Cyber Monday 26% 41% 29% 0% 50% Thanksgiving Day Black Friday Cyber Monday Mcommerce Sales Growth, 2015–2016 Source: comScore, Dec. 2016 #eMwebinar
  39. 39. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. Mcommerce’s sales share peaked on Thanksgiving Day #eMwebinar
  40. 40. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. Mobile generated the majority of online visits between Thanksgiving Day and Cyber Monday 53% 50% 52% 51% 43% 0% 100% Mobile Share of Unique User Visits Source: Hooklogic, Nov. 2016 57% 55% 59% 58% 47% 0% 100% Mobile Share of Visits Source: NetElixir, Dec. 2016 #eMwebinar
  41. 41. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. The majority of mobile shopping visits on Cyber Monday came from apps Source: ComScore, Dec. 2016 #eMwebinar
  42. 42. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. Mobile performance was up across the board Compared with 2015, this year’s Cyber Weekend saw:  Smartphone conversion rates up 53%  Average order value up 29% #eMwebinar
  43. 43. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. Product Trends
  44. 44. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. Apparel was the leading category of online purchases over Thanksgiving Weekend 26% 36% 39% 43% 0% 50% Books & Entertainment Electronics Toys Apparel & accessories Most Popular Purchases, Thanksgiving Day to Cyber Monday (% of Respondents) Source: Branding Brand, Dec. 2016 #eMwebinar
  45. 45. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. Shoes were one of the fastest growing subcategories for online purchases 53% year-over-year increase in online purchases of shoes Source: comScore, Dec. 2016 #eMwebinar
  46. 46. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. Top 10 toy searches on Hooklogic retailer sites 1. Hatchimals 2. Nintendo 3. Shopkins 4. Lego 5. Paw Patrol 6. NES Classic Edition 7. Pokémon/Pokémon cards 8. Barbie 9. Our Generation 10. Xbox One Source: Hooklogic #eMwebinar
  47. 47. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. Expectations for the Rest of the Season
  48. 48. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. Impact of competitive discounting on holiday ecommerce: Sales Traffic Margins #eMwebinar
  49. 49. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. Fewer people in 2016 finished their shopping by the start of Cyber Monday than did so in 2015 9% of shoppers had completed their shopping by the start of Cyber Monday, down from 11% in 2015 23% hadn’t started shopping by the start of Cyber Monday, up from 19% in 2015 Source: National Retail Federation and Prosper Analytics, Nov. 2016 #eMwebinar
  50. 50. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. Nearly 75% of US internet users aspired to have completed their gift buying by sometime in early December #eMwebinar
  51. 51. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. Even so, only 39% of US internet users had finished holiday shopping by mid-December in 2015 #eMwebinar
  52. 52. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. Recap Our mid-season assessments are:  Growth: Our forecast for 17.2% growth of ecommerce sales and a 3.3% gain for total retail sales looks to be on target  Rest of season: A fierce counterattack by retailers is limiting Amazon’s growth in market share, but hurting margins for retailers overall—and will continue to do so  Mobile: As expected, mcommerce continues to grow rapidly  Thanksgiving: Thanksgiving Weekend shopping is expanding beyond Thanksgiving Day, Black Friday and Cyber Monday #eMwebinar
  53. 53. MODERN CONSUMER FINANCING 2016 Black Friday | Cyber Monday Results
  54. 54. - Max Levchin, Founder 54 “Our first goal is to bring simplicity, transparency and fair pricing to consumer credit. The unintended consequence is the incredible impact we’ve had on retailers.” Hottest Startups of 2015 World’s Most Innovative Companies of 2016
  55. 55. Affirm gives shoppers flexibility to pay in 3, 6 or 12 month installments. And shows exactly how much their purchase will cost – with no fees or hidden costs. So they are empowered to buy what works for them - leading to higher conversions. $1,500 M ODERN COUCH MONTHLY PAYMENTS AS LOW AS $516.71/mo for 3 months $264.77/mo for 6 months $138.92/mo for 12 months 55 Affirm builds trust through transparency
  56. 56. Modern financing delivers results for retailers
  57. 57. Source: Affirm Merchant Case Study, March 57 “Thanksgiving weekend was another great example of how Affirm continues to help us grow the Peloton business. We achieved record sales during a time when shoppers are typically in pursuit of big sales and slashed prices, however we sold our $2,000+ bikes for full price. “ 2016 Affirm Holiday Shopping Report, December 2016 - Graham Stanton, President and co-founder of Peloton
  58. 58. affirm.com/business
  59. 59. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. Learn more about digital marketing with an eMarketer corporate subscription Around 200 eMarketer reports are published each year. Here are some recent reports you may be interested in: Q&A Session Made possible by You will receive an email tomorrow with a link to view the deck and webinar recording. To learn more: www.emarketer.com/products 800-405-0844 or webinars@emarketer.com Yory Wurmser Mid-Holiday Season Retail Update & Post-Thanksgiving Recap  Back-to-School Shopping Preview: The Shift to Ecommerce Accelerates  US Mcommerce Update 2016: Behind the Rapid Growth  US Holiday Shopping Preview 2016: Absorbing the Lessons of 2016  Performance Marketing in Retail

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