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Austin, TX: An Economic Prospectus

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Brian Kelsey's presentation at the CCIM Symposium on January 30, 2013.

Brian Kelsey's presentation at the CCIM Symposium on January 30, 2013.


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  • 1. Austin, TX: An Economic ProspectusCCIM SymposiumGrowing Pains of AustinJanuary 30, 2013
  • 2. Why Choose Austin?• Unique combination of big city growth rates and feel of small, “weird” university town• Diversified economy powered by innovation, productivity, and well-developed ecosystem for supporting entrepreneurship• Region offers great variety in quality of life at relatively affordable pricesJanuary 30, 2013 | CCIM Symposium: Growing Pains of Austin
  • 3. Population GrowthSource: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis8% Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos7%6%5%4%3%2%1%0% All U.S. Metro AreasJanuary 30, 2013 | CCIM Symposium: Growing Pains of Austin
  • 4. Fastest Growing Metro AreasSource: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Change, 2001-2011 Houston 1,245,826 Dallas 1,194,282 Atlanta 972,701 Riverside 927,632 Phoenix 899,500Washington 776,054 Miami 559,345 New York 539,136 Despite being only the 34th largest Las Vegas 509,475 metropolitan area, Austin ranks 10th in Austin 462,203 population growth since 2001. Orlando 461,001 Austin is adding an average of 50,000San Antonio 446,804 people every year since the recessionLos Angeles 433,310 hit in 2007—roughly equivalent to a Charlotte 421,097 Cedar Park . . . every year. Seattle 407,099 0 200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000 1,000,000 1,200,000 1,400,000January 30, 2013 | CCIM Symposium: Growing Pains of Austin
  • 5. Austin: Movers Driving GrowthSource: Internal Revenue Service, 2000-2010 (MSAs only) Top 10 Origin Metros (Avg Movers Per Year) 1. Houston (6,700) 2. Dallas (6,000) 3. San Antonio (4,700) 4. Killeen (2,100) 5. Los Angeles (1,800) 6. Corpus Christi (1,100) 7. Chicago (1,000) 8. Phoenix (900) 9. New York (900) 10.San Francisco (800) Blue: Move to Austin > Move from Austin Pink: Move to Austin < Move from AustinJanuary 30, 2013 | CCIM Symposium: Growing Pains of Austin
  • 6. Popular NeighborhoodsSource: U.S. Census Bureau, People Moving to Travis & Williamson Counties from Out of State, 2007-2011Census Out-of- % TractTract General Area Staters Population17.6 Steiner Ranch 1,113 8%6.01 UT Campus 1,030 11%17.86 Milwood/Arrowwood 856 17%215.07 Indian Ridge/Eagle Ridge 785 10%203.14 2243/183 Leander 754 15%18.49 North Burnet/Domain 708 13%January 30, 2013 | CCIM Symposium: Growing Pains of Austin
  • 7. Job Growth: Total EmploymentSource: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis12% Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% All U.S. Metro Areas -4%January 30, 2013 | CCIM Symposium: Growing Pains of Austin
  • 8. Economic Growth: GDPSource: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis Austin’s growing economy:Metro Area Real GDP Real GDP $26.6 billion increase in GDPGDP ≥ $50B 2001-10 2007-10 between 2001 and 2010, a 48% growth rate second only toPortland 49% 6% Portland among large metros.Austin 48% 10% $7.5 billion+ increase in GDP since recession hit in 2007, a 10% growth rate behind only SanSan Jose 43% 13% Jose among large metros.Raleigh 33% 5% GDP Per Capita, a proxy used for standard of living, has increased from 97% of U.S. to 104% of U.S.Orlando 31% -4%Washington 30% 6%Las Vegas 26% -13%Phoenix 25% -7%January 30, 2013 | CCIM Symposium: Growing Pains of Austin
  • 9. Skilled Workforce AvailabilitySource: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Austin MSA as % of All U.S. Metro Areas (100%)105% Paychecks (average earnings per worker)100% 95% 90% Productivity in Austin grew nearly twice as fast as productivity in all U.S. metropolitan areas between 2001 and 2010. Productivity 85% (output per worker) 80% 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010January 30, 2013 | CCIM Symposium: Growing Pains of Austin
  • 10. Manufacturing RenaissanceSource: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Output Per Worker (2005 dollars)$350,000 Manufacturing (output) in Austin is growing more than four times faster than the Austin economy as a$300,000 whole. It now makes up approximately 20% of the total metro area economy, up from only 9% in 2001.$250,000$200,000 Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos$150,000$100,000 All U.S. Metro Areas $50,000 $0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010January 30, 2013 | CCIM Symposium: Growing Pains of Austin
  • 11. Austin: Diversifying Economy Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis Jobs Rank GDP Rank 2001 2011 2001 2010 Government 1 1 1 2 Retail 2 3 6 7 Manufacturing 3 11 4 1 Prof, Sci, Tech Services 4 2 N/A 4 Health Care, Social Asst 5 4 N/A 9 Finance, Insurance 10 7 7 8 Real Estate 12 10 3 5Note: Rank based on share of total jobs, GDP. January 30, 2013 | CCIM Symposium: Growing Pains of Austin
  • 12. Innovation & Entrepreneurship• Corporate anchors• Infrastructure• Networks• ConnectorsJanuary 30, 2013 | CCIM Symposium: Growing Pains of Austin
  • 13. Wealth CreationSources, U.S. Census Bureau, Texas Comptroller• Number of households with at least $200K in annual income has doubled since 2000, up to 16,000 as of 2010 in city of Austin• Inflation-adjusted retail sales in Austin metro area grew by 27% between 2002 and 2011, compared to 22% statewide, 1% Dallas• Technology sectors (mobile, cloud, analytics) well-positioned for VC investmentJanuary 30, 2013 | CCIM Symposium: Growing Pains of Austin
  • 14. Housing AffordabilitySource: Zillow, Median List Price, November 2012 Price Per Most Expensive Price PerCity Sq. Ft. Neighborhood Sq. Ft.San Francisco $635 Presidio Heights $984Washington $417 Kalorama $757Seattle $286 Downtown $715Denver $210 Country Club $363Portland $191 Pearl District $350Austin $141 Downtown $387Raleigh $107 Wade $218January 30, 2013 | CCIM Symposium: Growing Pains of Austin
  • 15. Key Questions• Can Austin maintain its cost advantage given the region’s current growth trajectory?• Will we make the necessary investments in public services, infrastructure (water), and amenities to keep up with growth?• Is it possible to make the region’s economic development more inclusive?January 30, 2013 | CCIM Symposium: Growing Pains of Austin
  • 16. Middle Income StagnationSource: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Austin MSA as % of All U.S. Metro Areas (100%)110%105%100% 95% 90% Per capita income 85% 80% 75% Average earnings per job 70% 1975 1983 1969 1971 1973 1977 1979 1981 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011January 30, 2013 | CCIM Symposium: Growing Pains of Austin
  • 17. 71% of Austin metro area’s population growthbetween 2000 and 2010 occurred in suburbanareas, up from 53% between 1990 and 2000.
  • 18. Source: Center for Neighborhood Technology http://htaindex.cnt.org January 30, 2013 | CCIM Symposium: Growing Pains of Austin
  • 19. Human Capital Investment Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics • 37% (7.5M) of all new jobs in U.S. expected by 2020 will require postsecondary degree • 16 out of top 25 fastest growing occupations in U.S. will require postsecondary degree • 91 out of top 100 highest paying occupations in U.S. require postsecondary degreeNote: Postsecondary here means certificates, associate’s degrees, and up. January 30, 2013 | CCIM Symposium: Growing Pains of Austin
  • 20. Human Capital ROISource: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Median Wage for U.S. Occupations by Education Required, 2010 Doctoral or professional degree $87,500 Bachelors degree $63,430 Associates degree $61,590 Masters degree $60,240Postsecondary non-degree award $34,220High school diploma or equivalent $34,180 Less than high school $20,070 $0 $20,000 $40,000 $60,000 $80,000 $100,000January 30, 2013 | CCIM Symposium: Growing Pains of Austin
  • 21. Austin: The Challenge AheadSource: U.S. Census Bureau, % Population Age 25+ in Austin MSA with Postsecondary Degree, 201180% 73% % Total Population with Postsecondary Degree70% Washington DC 54%60% San Francisco 51% Raleigh 50% 50% Austin 47%50% Seattle 46% Denver 46%40% Portland 42% 33%30% 21%20%10% 0% Asian White Black HispanicJanuary 30, 2013 | CCIM Symposium: Growing Pains of Austin
  • 22. Summary• Austin’s reign atop metro area rankings should continue if we continue to think big, take risks, and invest in economic competitiveness• Growth pressures will test our commitment to regional thinking—avoiding a zero-sum game mentality will be a critical success factor• Creating stronger links between education and workforce development is a top priorityJanuary 30, 2013 | CCIM Symposium: Growing Pains of Austin
  • 23. Brian Kelsey, PrincipalCivic Analytics LLCbrian@civicanalytics.com512-731-7851 http://civicanalytics.com @brianjkelsey linkedin.com/in/brianjkelseyJanuary 30, 2013 | CCIM Symposium: Growing Pains of Austin