Housing Phoenix Market April 2009

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Housing Phoenix Market April 2009

  1. 1. Phoenix Housing Market Updated 4/16/2009 1
  2. 2. 2
  3. 3. PHOENIX STRENGTHS ► ► CONCERNS • Population growth •Home Inventories •I Income Growth G th •Foreclosures • Highly Educated •Credit Conditions Population • Low Costs of Doing Business • Affordable Housing g • No hurricanes, earthquakes, tornadoes, “Santa Ana Fires” or snow 3
  4. 4. 2009Forecast 4
  5. 5. Arizona s Arizona’s Population Growth 6.70 7.0 6.5 6.0 5.5 5.10 5.0 4.5 illions 3.70 4.0 3.5 2.70 2 70 Mi 3.0 2.5 1.80 2.0 1.30 1.5 0.75 1.0 0.5 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Source: U.S. Census Bureau 5
  6. 6. Phoenix’s Population Growth 4217 4,500 3,987 3 987 4,000 3,500 3072 3,000 ousands 2,500 2130 2,000 2 000 Tho 1509 1,500 971 1,000 , 664 332 500 0 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2008 2010 Source: Greater Phoenix Economic Council 6
  7. 7. Phoenix Metro Employment Ph i Mt E l t 2000 1900 1800 1700 1600 1500 1400 1300 1200 1100 1000 Employment has increased over 100 % in Greater Phoenix over the past 20 years overall. Non-farm employment in Greater Phoenix has grown from 983,400 in 1990 to nearly 1.89 million in 2008. Regional employment decreased (1.4) percent between 2007 and 2008 marking the first significant decrease in the last 15 years years. Source: Eller College of Management, The University of Arizona 7
  8. 8. Comparing Markets Percentage of new and existing homes that were sold during the 4th quarter of 2008 that were affordable to families earning the area’s median income. Seattle 40 6% 40.6% Portland 48.9% Reno Salt Lake Chicago 56.8% 64.8% 58.0% Denver 70.3% San Francisco Las Vegas 20.6% 71.1% Albuquerque 68.7% Los Angeles 26.9% Phoenix 74.1% San Diego 44.6% Dallas 67.5% Tucson 64.1% San Antonio 62.3% Houston 66.2% Source: National Association of Home Builders 8
  9. 9. Arizona In Migration Patterns for the In-Migration Top 5 States Per Year Washing… Colorado Illinois Texas California 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 90,000 100,000 110,000 120,000 YTD-Mar YTD M 09 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 Source: Arizona Department of Transportation, Motor Vehicle Division. Dec 2007 9
  10. 10. Income Growth for Greater Phoenix Income Growth Percentages for Greater Phoenix Year 1Q 2009 -1.1% 1.7% 2008 2007 5.6% 2006 8.7% 2005 9.0% 2004 6.6% 2003 5.3% 5 3% 2002 4.3% 2001 5.7% 1990-2000 1990 2000 4.0% 4 0% 1980-1990 6.9% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% Source: Eller Collage of Management, The University of Arizona, 2001 - 2008. Historical Data: U.S. Census Bureau, 1980, 1990, 2000. 10
  11. 11. Ja n 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Fe -06 b M -06 ar Ap -06 M r-06 ay Ju -06 n- Ju 06 Aul-06 g Se -06 p- Oc 06 No t-06 v De -06 c Ja -06 n Fe -07 b- M 07 ar Ap -07 M r-07 ay Ju -07 n- Ju 07 Aul-07 g Se -07 p- Oc 07 No t-07 v De -07 c Ja -07 n Federal Funds (Effective) Fe -08 b M -08 ar Ap -08 M r-08 ay Ju -08 n- Ju 08 Aul-08 g Se -08 Long-Term Interest Rates p- Oc 08 No t-08 v De -08 c Ja -08 n Fe -09 Source: Freddie Mac, Federal Reserve b- M 09 30 Year Fixed ar -0 9 11
  12. 12. Median Sales Price of Existing Single Family Homes g g y 2008 4th Quarter San Francisco Los Angeles San Diego New York Boston Seattle Riverside/ San Bernardino Ri id / S B di Las Vegas Portland Chicago Greater Phoenix Denver Salt Lake City Minneapolis U.S. Average Tam pa Albuquerque Houston 00 00 00 00 00 00 $- ,0 ,0 ,0 ,0 ,0 ,0 00 00 00 00 00 00 $1 $2 $3 $4 $5 $6 12 Source: National Association of Realtors, 2007.
  13. 13. Resale Home Median Price Per Month 300000 250000 2002 200000 2003 2004 2005 150000 2006 2007 2008 100000 2009 50000 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec *This representation is based in whole or in part on the data supplied by ARMLS. ARMLS does not guarantee nor is in any way responsible for its accuracy. Data maintained by ARMLS may not reflect all real estate activity in the market. 13 Source: ARMLS
  14. 14. DETACHED NEW HOME MEDIAN PRICE: $218 156 $218,156 Maricopa County March 2009 Statistics Phoenix $218,156 325000 300000 275000 250000 225000 200000 175000 150000 125000 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 1Q 1Q 1Q 3Q 3Q 3Q 3Q 3Q 3Q 1Q 1Q 1Q 1Q Quarterly 14 Source: The Information Market
  15. 15. 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 Jan Ju -02 n Ju -02 Au l-02 g Oc -02 t Jan-02 Ap -03 r Ju -03 Ocl-03 No t-03 v Jan-03 Ma -04 Ma r-04 y Ju -04 Ocl-04 De t-04 c Jan -04 Ma -05 Ma r-05 y Ju -05 Ocl-05 De t-05 c Jan -05 Ma -06 Ma r-06 y J -06 Seul-06 Includes all single-family, townhomes, and manufactured homes p Oct-06 All A ti H No t-06 Dev-06 c Jan -06 Fe -07 b Ma -07 Apr-07 Mar-07 Ju y-07 Ju n... l Auy-07 g Active Home Li ti Se -07 p Oc -07 No t-07 Dev-07 Listings c Jan -07 Fe -08 b Ma -08 Apr-08 Mar-08 y Ju -08 n-0 Ju 8 Au l-08 g Se -08 p --------- Normal Market Conditions Oc -08 No t-08 Dev-08 Source: ARMLS c Jan -08 Fe -09 b 15 Ma -09 r-0 9
  16. 16. Ja n 18 000 0 12,000 ,000 18,000 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 14,000 16,000 Fe 05 b M 05 ar A 05 p M r 05 ay Ju 05 n Ju 05 A l 05 ug Se 0 pt 5 O 05 ct N 05 ov D 05 ec Ja 05 n Fe 06 b M 06 ar A 06 p M r 06 ay Ju 06 n Ju 06 A l 06 u Se g 0 pt 6 O 06 ct N 06 ov D 06 ec Ja 06 n Fe 07 b M 07 ar A 07 pr M 07 ay Ju 0 ne 7 Ju 07 ly A 07 ug Se 07 p O 07 ct N 07 ov D 07 Source: The Information Market (Includes: Single Family Detached, Townhomes,& Condos) ec Ja 07 n Fe 08 b M 08 ar A 08 pr M -08 ay Maricopa County Home Closings Ju -08 n- Ju 08 A l-0 ug 8 Se -08 p O -08 ct N -08 ov D -08 ec Ja -08 n Fe -09 b- M 09 ar -0 Home Re-Sales 9 16 New Home Closings
  17. 17. Historical Foreclosure Trends-Trust Deed Sales 14000 13000 12000 11000 10000 9000 8000 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 Source: The Information Market 17
  18. 18. Metro Phoenix Monthly Foreclosures y 12,000 10,000 10 000 8,000 6,000 4,000 4 000 2,000 0 Jan M ar M ay Jul Sep Nov Jan M ar M ay July Sep Nov Jan M ar M Jul- S N Jan- M 06 06 06 06 06 06 07 07 07 07 07 07 08 08 ay- 08 ep - o v- 09 ar - 08 08 08 09 Notice of trustee sale, precursor to foreclosure Trust Deed Sales Source: The Information Market 18
  19. 19. $100,000 $150,000 $200,000 $250,000 $300,000 $350,000 $350 000 Jan 02 Apr 02 Jul 02 Oct 02 Jan 03 Apr 03 Jul 03 Oct 03 Jan 04 Apr 04 Jul 04 Li ti Oct 04 Jan 05 Pi Apr 05 Listing Price Jul 05 Oct 05 Jan 06 Apr 06 Jul 06 Oct 06 Sales P i Jan 07 S l Price Apr 07 Jul 07 Oct 07 Median Listing Price vs. Median Sales Price Jan 08 Source: ARMLS Apr-08 Jul-08 19 Oct-08 Jan-09
  20. 20. Metro Phoenix New Housing Permits 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Source: The Arizona Republic, 20 Phoenix Business Journal
  21. 21. Phoenix Market: All Detached Product – Historical Finished Lot Inventory 80,000 72 66 70,000 70 000 60 60,000 54 48 50,000 50 000 M 42 O N 40,000 36 T H 30 S 30,000 30 000 24 20,000 18 12 10,000 6 0 Finished Q04 Q05 Q05 Q05 Q05 Q06 Q06 Q06 Q06 Q07 Q07 Q07 Q07 Q08 Q08 Q08 Q08 Lot Inv 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q Months of Supply 21 Source: Metrostudy
  22. 22. Phoenix Market: 4th Qtr 2008 Months Supply of Vacant Lots by Lot Width 264 240 216 192 168 144 120 96 72 48 24 0 Att < 45 45 50 55 60 65 70/75 80/85 90+ Standard L t St d d Lot Width 22 Source: Metrostudy
  23. 23. Phoenix Market: 4th Qtr 2008 Vacant Lot Months of Supply by Submarket (1st of 2) North Phoenix Near North Phx Tempe Florence Peoria Central Pheonix Hunt Hwy… East Mesa South Surprise North Surprise North Avondale East Chandler West Chandler Near SW Phx South Buckeye South Scottsdale West Mesa 0 24 48 72 96 120 144 168 192 216 240 264 288 312 23 Source: Metrostudy
  24. 24. Phoenix Market: 4th QTR 2008 Vacant Lot Months of Supply by Submarket (2nd of 2) Near West Phx Maricopa South Mountain Tolleson Gilbert Glendale Goodyear Queen Creek Sun City Area North Scottsdale Casa Grande AJ-Gold Camp North Buckeye Coolidge Litchfield Park Cave Creek Fountain Hills 0 24 48 72 96 120 144 168 192 216 240 264 288 312 24 Source: Metrostudy
  25. 25. 25 Source: Maricopa Association of Governments
  26. 26. Source: Maricopa Association of Governments 26
  27. 27. 27

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