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The Changing Demographicsof Texas and Their Impact on     our Nonprofit Sector                               The Texas Non...
Growing States, 2000-2010                                                                                 Numerical       ...
Total Population and Components of                               Population Change in Texas, 1950-2011                    ...
The 10 Fastest Growing Metro Areas                          from April 1, 2010, to July 1, 2011                           ...
The 10 Metro Areas with the Largest Numeric                            Increase from April 1, 2010, to July 1, 2011       ...
The 10 Counties with the Largest Numeric                          Increase from April 1, 2010, to July 1, 2011            ...
Texas Business-Cycle Index                             7
Texas Jobs Growing Faster Than            Nation’s                                 8
Estimated Annual Net Migration to                                             Texas, 2000 to 2009250,000                  ...
Percent of Migrants to Texas between                                      2000 and 2009 by Race and Ethnicity             ...
States with Largest Estimated                         Unauthorized Immigrant Populations, 2010                            ...
Estimated domestic migration (2000-2008) by                                county as a percentage of 2000 population      ...
Estimated international migration (2000-2008) by county                                                     as a percentag...
http://www.forbes.com/special-report/2011/migration.html   14
http://www.forbes.com/special-report/2011/migration.html   15
Texas Racial and Ethnic Composition,                                                  2000 and 2010                       ...
Population                                                                         50000                                  ...
Texas Population Pyramid by Race/Ethnicity, 2010                         Male White, Non-Hispanic       Male Hispanic     ...
Texas Population Pyramid by Race/Ethnicity, 2010                                                           Male White, Non...
Texas Population Pyramid by Race/Ethnicity, 2010                                        Male Hispanic         Male Black, ...
Total Population by County, 2010                      Legend                      co48_d00                      PROJECTION...
Change of the Total Population by County, 2000 to                                                     2010                ...
Percent of the Population Less than 18 Years of Age, Living                         Under Poverty for During Past 12 Month...
Median Household Income by County, 2005-2009                 $18,000-30,000                 $ 30,000-35,000               ...
Educational Attainment in Texas, 2009                         Level of Educational                  Percent of     State  ...
Race/Ethnic Composition by Education Level                             aged 25 years and more, Texas, 2009                ...
Projected Percent of Labor Force by Education                               Attainment in Texas, 2000 and 2040           3...
Physicians per 1,000 Population, 2010              Physician Rate                                                    Physi...
Physicians per 1,000 Population Aged 65 Years                                       and Older by County, 2008             ...
Physicians per 100,000 by                     Metro & Border Status of Counties, 2009   200   180                         ...
Percent of People Lacking Health Insurance                         Coverage by Metro and Non-Metro Area, 2009             ...
Percent Health Insurance Coverage by Race/Ethnicity                                             and Type of Insurance, 201...
Projected Population Growth in Texas, 2000-2040                                                              YearSource: T...
Projected Racial and Ethnic Percent, Texas, 2000-204070%60%50%40%                                                         ...
Population Aged 65 Years and Older by                                    County, 2009 Estimated          Percent 65 Years ...
Projected Population Among Older Texans      3,500,000      3,000,000      2,500,000      2,000,000                       ...
Percent of Persons Aged 65 Years and Older                                 by County, 2000 Census and 2040 Projected      ...
Teen Birth Rate by State, 2006                                                                               Birth rate pe...
Projected Increase in Obesity in Texas by                                                                            Ethni...
Estimated Number of Adults with Obesity                   Legend                                 by County, 2008          ...
Projected Number of Adults with Diabetes by Race                                       and Ethnicity, Texas, 2010-2040    ...
Projected Percent of the Adult Population with      Diabetes by County, 2010 and 2040                 LE 15%              ...
Demographics and Destiny                           43
ContactLloyd Potter, Ph.D., M.P.H. Office: (512) 463-8390 or (210) 458-6530 Email: Lloyd.Potter@osd.state.tx.us Internet: ...
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The Changing Demographics of Texas and Their Impact on our Nonprofit Sector

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Lloyd Potter, Ph.D., M.P.H., Texas State Demographer

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The Changing Demographics of Texas and Their Impact on our Nonprofit Sector

  1. 1. The Changing Demographicsof Texas and Their Impact on our Nonprofit Sector The Texas Nonprofit Summit September 20, 2012 Austin, Texas
  2. 2. Growing States, 2000-2010 Numerical Percent 2000 2010 Change Change Population* Population* 2000-2010 2000-2010United States 281,421,906 308,745,538 27,323,632 9.7%Texas 20,851,820 25,145,561 4,293,741 20.6%California 33,871,648 37,253,956 3,382,308 10.0%Florida 15,982,378 18,801,310 2,818,932 17.6%Georgia 8,186,453 9,687,653 1,501,200 18.3%North Carolina 8,049,313 9,535,483 1,486,170 18.5%Arizona 5,130,632 6,392,017 1,261,385 24.6% 15.7% of numerical change in U.S. Population values are decennial census counts for April 1 for 2000 and 2010.Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 Census Count. 2
  3. 3. Total Population and Components of Population Change in Texas, 1950-2011 Percent Change Due to Numerical Percent Natural NetYear* Population Change Change Increase Migration1950 7,711,194 -- -- -- --1960 9,579,677 1,868,483 24.2 93.91 6.091970 11,196,730 1,617,053 16.9 86.74 13.261980 14,229,191 3,032,461 27.1 41.58 58.421990 16,986,510 2,757,319 19.9 65.85 34.152000 20,851,820 3,865,310 22.8 49.65 50.352009 24,782,302 3,930,484 18.8 54.04 45.332010 25,145,561 4,293,741 20.62011 25,674,681 529,120 2.1 54.79 44.99* All values for the decennial dates are for April 1st of the indicated census year. Values for 2009 and 2011 are for July 1 asestimated by the U.S. Census Bureau.Source: Derived from U.S. Census Bureau Estimates for dates indicated by the Texas State Data Center, University of Texas at San Antonio.Note: Residual values are not presented in this table. 3
  4. 4. The 10 Fastest Growing Metro Areas from April 1, 2010, to July 1, 2011 Percent Increase 1. Kennewick-Pasco-Richland, Wash. 4.3 Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos, 2. 3.9 Texas 3. Hinesville-Fort Stewart, Ga. 3.4 4. McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, Texas 3.0 5. Raleigh-Cary, N.C. 2.9 6. Warner Robins, Ga. 2.9 7. Provo-Orem, Utah 2.7 Charleston-North Charleston- 8. 2.6 Summerville, S.C. Myrtle Beach-North Myrtle Beach- 9. 2.6 Conway, S.C. 10. Yuma, Ariz. 2.6 4Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2012
  5. 5. The 10 Metro Areas with the Largest Numeric Increase from April 1, 2010, to July 1, 2011 Numeric Increase 1. Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, Texas 154,774 2. Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown, Texas 139,699 Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, D.C.-Va.-Md.- 3. 121,911 W.Va. New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island, N.Y.- 4. 118,791 N.J.-Pa. 5. Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana, Calif. 115,964 6. Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, Fla. 105,490 7. Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, Ga. 90,345 8. Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, Calif. 80,146 9. Phoenix-Mesa-Glendale, Ariz. 70,349 10. Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos, Texas 67,230 5Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2012
  6. 6. The 10 Counties with the Largest Numeric Increase from April 1, 2010, to July 1, 2011 Numeric Increase 1. Harris, Texas 88,452 2. Los Angeles, Calif. 70,451 3. Maricopa, Ariz. 63,127 4. Miami-Dade, Fla. 58,331 5. Riverside, Calif. 49,979 6. Dallas, Texas 47,875 7. Orange, Calif. 45,513 8. San Diego, Calif. 44,756 9. Bexar, Texas 41,376 10. Tarrant, Texas 40,776 Texas contains eight of the 25 counties with the highest numerical gains 6Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2012
  7. 7. Texas Business-Cycle Index 7
  8. 8. Texas Jobs Growing Faster Than Nation’s 8
  9. 9. Estimated Annual Net Migration to Texas, 2000 to 2009250,000 International State-to-State200,000150,000100,000 50,000 Hurricane Katrina 0 2000 to 2001 to 2002 to 2003 to 2004 to 2005 to 2006 to 2007 to 2008 to 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census 2009 Estimates 9
  10. 10. Percent of Migrants to Texas between 2000 and 2009 by Race and Ethnicity 52% of all migrants were international 100% 5% 18% 12% 90% 80% 23% 15% 8% 70% 67% of all 60% migrants 28% 50% 40% 50% 40% Other 30% Black 20% 44% 33% Hispanic 10% 24% White 0% Net domestic International Total migration migration (848,702 migrants ) (933,083 migrants)Sources: Percentages of domestic and international migrants by race and ethnicity derived from the 2006-2008 American Community Survey. Total numbers of domestic and international 10migrants between 2000-2009 are from Table 4. Cumulative Estimates of the Components of Resident Population Change for the United States, Regions, States, and Puerto Rico: April 1,2000 to July 1, 2009, U.S. Census Bureau
  11. 11. States with Largest Estimated Unauthorized Immigrant Populations, 2010 Estimate State Range (thousands) California 2,550 (2,350 - 2,750) 6.5% of Texas’ 2010 Population Texas 1,650 (1,450 - 1,850) Florida 825 (725 - 950) New York 625 (525 - 725) New Jersey 550 (425 - 650) Illinois 525 (425 - 625) Georgia 425 (300 - 550) Arizona 400 (275 - 500)Source: Pew Hispanic Center estimates based on residual methodology applied to March Supplements to the Current Population Survey (February 1, 2011). 11
  12. 12. Estimated domestic migration (2000-2008) by county as a percentage of 2000 population Legend -20 to -45% -19 to -10% -9 to -5% -4 to 0% 1 to 5 % 6 to 20% 21 to 30% 31 to 65%Source: Population Division, U.S. Census Bureau, March 19, 2009. Map produced 12by the Texas State Data Center
  13. 13. Estimated international migration (2000-2008) by county as a percentage of 2000 population Legend 0-1% 1-2.5% 2.5-3.5% 3.5-5% 5-10%Source: Population Division, U.S. Census Bureau, March 19, 2009. Map produced 13by the Texas State Data Center
  14. 14. http://www.forbes.com/special-report/2011/migration.html 14
  15. 15. http://www.forbes.com/special-report/2011/migration.html 15
  16. 16. Texas Racial and Ethnic Composition, 2000 and 2010 2000 2010 Hispanic Hispanic or Latino or Latino 32% 38% NH White NH 45% White NH 53% Other 4% NH NH Black Other NH Black 11% 6% 11%Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 Census count
  17. 17. Population 50000 0 100000 150000 200000 250000 Under 1 year 4 years 8 years 12 years 16 years 20 years 24 yearsSource: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1 28 years 32 years 36 years 40 years 44 years 48 years Age 52 years 56 years 60 years 64 years 68 years 72 years 76 years Hispanic 80 years Texas White (non-Hispanic) and 84 years Hispanic Populations by Age, 2010 88 years 92 years White (non-Hispanic) 96 years 17 100 to 104…
  18. 18. Texas Population Pyramid by Race/Ethnicity, 2010 Male White, Non-Hispanic Male Hispanic Male Black, Non-Hispanic Male Asian, Non-Hispanic Male Other, Non Hispanic Female White, Non-Hispanic Female Hispanic Female Black, Non-Hispanic Female Asian, Non-Hispanic Female Other, Non Hispanic 100 to 104 years 95 years 90 years 85 years 80 years 75 years 70 years 65 years 60 years 55 years 50 years 45 years 40 years 35 years 30 years 25 years 20 years 15 years 10 years 5 years Under 1 year 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 18Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1
  19. 19. Texas Population Pyramid by Race/Ethnicity, 2010 Male White, Non-Hispanic Female White, Non-Hispanic 100 to 104 years 95 years 90 years 85 years 80 years 75 years 70 years 65 years 60 years 55 years 50 years 45 years 40 years 35 years 30 years 25 years 20 years 15 years 10 years 5 years Under 1 year 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 19Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1
  20. 20. Texas Population Pyramid by Race/Ethnicity, 2010 Male Hispanic Male Black, Non-Hispanic Male Asian, Non-Hispanic Male Other, Non Hispanic Female Hispanic Female Black, Non-Hispanic Female Asian, Non-Hispanic Female Other, Non Hispanic 100 to 104 years 95 years 90 years 85 years 80 years 75 years 70 years 65 years 60 years 55 years 50 years 45 years 40 years 35 years 30 years 25 years 20 years 15 years 10 years 5 years Under 1 year 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 20 200,000Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1
  21. 21. Total Population by County, 2010 Legend co48_d00 PROJECTIONS X$.totpop10 82 - 10,000 10,001 - 50,000 50,001 - 100,001 100,001 - 500,001 500,001 - 1,000,000 1,000,001 - 4,100,000Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Census Counts 21
  22. 22. Change of the Total Population by County, 2000 to 2010 Legend co48_d00 79 counties lost PROJECTIONS X$.totpopch0010 population over the -3,200 - 0 decade 1 - 10,000 10,001 - 50,000 50,001 - 100,000 100,001 - 700,000Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2000 and 2010 Census Counts 22
  23. 23. Percent of the Population Less than 18 Years of Age, Living Under Poverty for During Past 12 Months, 2005-2009 5-20% 20-30% 30-40% 40-55%Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5-Year Sample 2005-2009
  24. 24. Median Household Income by County, 2005-2009 $18,000-30,000 $ 30,000-35,000 $ 35,000-40,000 $40,000-50,000 $ 50,000-76,000Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5-Year Sample 2005-2009
  25. 25. Educational Attainment in Texas, 2009 Level of Educational Percent of State Attainment persons aged Ranking 25 years and older High school diploma 79.9% 50 or equivalency Bachelors 25.5% 31 Graduate 8.5% 33Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 2009. 25
  26. 26. Race/Ethnic Composition by Education Level aged 25 years and more, Texas, 2009 3% 9% 19% 15% 6% 8% 67% 71% College and GreaterLess Than High School Source: Derived from 2009 American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates by the Office of the State Demographer. 26
  27. 27. Projected Percent of Labor Force by Education Attainment in Texas, 2000 and 2040 35.0 30.1 30.0 29.0 28.7 28.7 25.0 23.9 20.0Percent 18.8 18.2 15.0 12.9 10.0 5.3 4.4 5.0 0.0 No High School Diploma High School Graduate Some College Bachelors Degree Graduate/Professional Degree 2000 2040 Source: Texas State Data Center. 2008 Population Projections, 1.0 Migration Scenario.
  28. 28. Physicians per 1,000 Population, 2010 Physician Rate Physician Rate Change, 2000-2010 Physicians per 1,000 Population 2000Physicians per 1,000 Population 2010 PROJECTIONS X$.phys001 PROJECTIONS X$.difphys 0 -3 to -0.5 .01-.5 -0.49 to -.001 .51-1 0 1.1-1.5 .001 to .5 1.51-4 .51-2.1Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 Census Counts. Texas Medical Board.Maps produced by the Texas State Data Center. 28
  29. 29. Physicians per 1,000 Population Aged 65 Years and Older by County, 2008 Physcians per 1,000 persons aged 65+ Age 65p County$.Physper1k65p 0 GT 0 - LE 5 GT 5 - LE 10 GT 10 - LE 20 GT 20Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2009 Population Estimates. Texas Medical Board.Map produced by the Texas State Data Center. 29
  30. 30. Physicians per 100,000 by Metro & Border Status of Counties, 2009 200 180 175 159 160 140 120 110 100 95 80 60 53 40 20 0 Not Border Border Not Border Border Non-Metro Non-Metro Metropolitan Metropolitan Total 2009Sources: U.S. Census Bureau. 2009 Estimates.Department of State Health Services. Health Professions Resource Center Database. 30
  31. 31. Percent of People Lacking Health Insurance Coverage by Metro and Non-Metro Area, 2009 The Census Bureau estimates that in 2009 Texas had the highest uninsured rate in the country, at 26.1%, or 6.4 million people. Texas also had theMetropolitan Areas highest uninsured less than 20%Metropolitan Areas 20.0% to 22.9% rate of children, with less than 20% 23.0% to 25.9% 20.0% to 22.9% over 26% 17.4%, or 1.28 million 23.0% to 25.9% PUMAs over 26% children lackingNon-Metropolitan Areas PUMAs less than 20% insurance.Non-Metropolitan Areas 20.0% to 22.9% less than 20% 23.0% to 25.9% 20.0% to 22.9% over 26% 23.0% to 25.9% over 26% Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2009 American Community Survey . Map produced by the Texas State Data Center. 31
  32. 32. Percent Health Insurance Coverage by Race/Ethnicity and Type of Insurance, 2010 70 66 61 60 52 50 45 40 37 32 34 29 30 25 26 23 22 20 20 14 15 10 0 White Black Hispanic Asian Other None Public PrivateNote: Public includes individuals with public only and those with public plus private insurance. Private includes individuals who only haveprivate insurance.Source: American Community Survey, 2010 PUMS data 32
  33. 33. Projected Population Growth in Texas, 2000-2040 YearSource: Texas State Data Center 2008 Population Projections 33
  34. 34. Projected Racial and Ethnic Percent, Texas, 2000-204070%60%50%40% Anglo30% Black Hispanic20% Other10%0% 2000 2002 2004 2008 2010 2012 2014 2018 2020 2022 2024 2030 2032 2034 2040 2006 2016 2026 2028 2036 2038 Source: Texas State Data Center 2008 Population Projections , 2000-2007 Migration Scenario 34
  35. 35. Population Aged 65 Years and Older by County, 2009 Estimated Percent 65 Years and Older Population 65 Years and Older Percent of the Total Population aged 65 Pct 2009 Total Population aged 65 plus 2009 TOT_POPP9 TOT_POP9 LE 10% LE 5,000 GT 10% - LE 15% GT 5,000 - LE 15,000 GT 15% - LE 20% GT 15,000 - LE 25,000 GT 20% - LE 25% GT 25,000 - LE 100,000 GT 25% GT 100,000Source: Texas State Data Center. 2009 Population Estimates. 35Maps produced by the Texas State Data Center.
  36. 36. Projected Population Among Older Texans 3,500,000 3,000,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 Age 65-74 1,500,000 Age 75-85 1,000,000 Age 85+ 500,000 0 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030 2033 2036 2039Source: Texas State Data Center. 2008 Population Projections, 2000-2004 Migration Scenario. 36
  37. 37. Percent of Persons Aged 65 Years and Older by County, 2000 Census and 2040 Projected 2000 Count 2040 ProjectionPercent 65 Years Old and Older < 11.9 (n=66) <11.9 Percent 65 Years Old and Older 12.0 – 14.9 Source: Institute for Demographic and Socioeconomic Research, < 11.9 (n=2) The University of Texas at San Antonio. Census 2000 Summary File 1. 12.0 - 14.9 (n=70) Source: Institute for Demographic and Socioeconomic Re 12.0 - 14.9 (n=19) The University of Texas at San Antonio. Texas Population 15.0 - 19.9 (n=80) 15.0 – 19.9 15.0 - 19.9 (n=79) and Projections Program, 2006 Projections. 20.0 or more (n=38) 20.0 or more (n=154)more 20.0 orSource: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 Census Count. Texas State Data Center. 2009 Population Projections.Maps produced by the Texas State Data Center. 37
  38. 38. Teen Birth Rate by State, 2006 Birth rate per 1,000 Rank State women ages 15-19 1 Mississippi 68.4 2 New Mexico 64.1 3 Texas 63.1 4 Arkansas 62.3 5 Arizona 62 6 Oklahoma 59.6 7 Nevada 55.8 8 Tennessee 54.7 9 Kentucky 54.6 10 Georgia 54.2 11 Louisiana 53.9 12 Alabama 53.5Source: National Center for Health Statistics at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention 38
  39. 39. Projected Increase in Obesity in Texas by Ethnicity, 2006 to 2040Source: Office of the State Demographer projections, using 2000-2004 migration scenario population projections 39
  40. 40. Estimated Number of Adults with Obesity Legend by County, 2008 co48_d00 Sheet1$.Nadultobes 0-10,000 10,001-25,000 25,001-75,000 75,001-250,000 250,001-73,000Source: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention: National DiabetesSurveillance System. Available online at: http://apps.nccd.cdc.gov/DDTSTRS/default.aspx. 40
  41. 41. Projected Number of Adults with Diabetes by Race and Ethnicity, Texas, 2010-2040 8,000,000 6,000,000 Total Latino 4,000,000 Anglo African American Other 2,000,000 0Source: Office of the State Demographer, 2010 41
  42. 42. Projected Percent of the Adult Population with Diabetes by County, 2010 and 2040 LE 15% 15-20% 20-25% 25-30% 30-37.5%2010 2040 42
  43. 43. Demographics and Destiny 43
  44. 44. ContactLloyd Potter, Ph.D., M.P.H. Office: (512) 463-8390 or (210) 458-6530 Email: Lloyd.Potter@osd.state.tx.us Internet: http://osd.state.tx.us 44

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