My presentation for Creative Industries KTN on intro to futures thinking

1. Horizon ScanningEngaging with the Future Dr Chris Yapp Chris_yapp@hotmail.co.uk June 11 1 CIKTN Chris Yapp

2. June 11 2 Futures Thinking Contingency planning Scenarios Systems thinking Complexity theory Ethnographic Futures CIKTN Chris Yapp

3. What type of future? Desired ( my plan) Desirable ( Plan B) Plausible ( time to rethink?) Consensus ( my contrarian plan) Unpleasant ( don’t want to go there) June 11 CIKTN Chris Yapp 3

4. Unpicking Assumptions “The problem is that companies just don’t get Web 2.0. The benefits are out there and the tools are cheap. Planning is expensive and wasteful. Get on with realising the benefits” A Social Media guru While at the same time... Predicted 100% compound growth for 5 years All existing services would still be there and free Values of today’s teenagers would still be their values in 10 years Governments wouldn’t regulate... June 11 CIKTN Chris Yapp 4

5. Dimensions of the Current Challenge June 11 5 structural Economic Change Market Step Change Niche Portfolio Reactive Proactive Strategic Response Sitting Tight Mopping up cyclical CIKTN Chris Yapp

6. Dynamics of the Current Challenge June 11 6 New Entrant structural Economic Change Market Step Change Niche Portfolio Reactive Proactive Strategic Response Sitting Tight Mopping up cyclical CIKTN Chris Yapp

7. June 11 7 Problem Types Do we know where We are going? YES Best practice Scaling practice TASK: Operational Management TASK: Process Development NO YES Do we know How to get There? TASK: Direction Setting TASK: Concept Creation Next practice Emerging practice NO After Eddie Obeng CIKTN Chris Yapp

8. Whose problem? June 11 8 High Political System Think Tank Complexity Consultant Wisdom of The Crowds Academic /Expert Low Low High Uncertainty CIKTN Chris Yapp

9. What value? June 11 9 High Political System Think Tank Track record Complexity Ideas Consultant Wisdom of The Crowds Knowledge Academic /Expert Low Low High Uncertainty CIKTN Chris Yapp

10. During Step Change? June 11 10 High Political System Consultancy squeezed as limited track record Think Tank Complexity Consultant Wisdom of The Crowds Academic /Expert Low Low High Uncertainty CIKTN Chris Yapp

11. Horizon Scanning 'the systematic examination of potential threats, opportunities and likely future developments, including (but not restricted to) those at the margins of current thinking and planning.' Sigma Scan Politics Economics Science and Technology Environment Society June 11 11 Outsights-IPSOSMori www.sigmascan.org UK Office of Science and Technology CIKTN Chris Yapp

12. The Ways of not knowing H Knowledge Of Outcome Domain Of Risk Domain of Uncertainty Knowledge Of Probability L H Domain of Ignorance Domain of Ambiguity L June 11 12 CIKTN Chris Yapp

13. Why do we get it wrong? Today!!! Prisoners of Language Timing Unintended consequences Sources of Innovation Ask the wrong question/people? Culture Events June 11 13 CIKTN Chris Yapp

14. Not understanding today… Societies taboos Poor data for emerging trends Examples Police Paedophiles Education International/global interconnectivity June 11 14 CIKTN Chris Yapp

15. Timing Inevitability-Predictability Risk and uncertainty Unforseen barriers Social factors Long-term skill developments June 11 15 CIKTN Chris Yapp

16. Timing “In the Future blind People will Be able to drive cars” June 11 16 CIKTN Chris Yapp

17. Results Probability 0.9 with some 0.2 Today with Resources: 1-3 years In practice: 3-10 years In reality: 10-100 years June 11 17 CIKTN Chris Yapp

18. Outsights Drivers of 21st century 1. War, terrorism and insecurity 2. Layers of power 3. Economic and financial stability 4. BRICs and emerging powers 5. Five flows of globalisation 6. Intellectual property 7. Health 8. Mobility 9. Population 10. Trust and reputation 11. Values and beliefs 12. Identity 13. Consumerism 14. Networks and connectivity 15. Space 16. Science futures 17. Science and society 18. Resource availability 19. Climate change 20. Environmental degradation 21. Urbanisation June 11 18 CIKTN Chris Yapp

19. 1066 and All That June 11 CIKTN Chris Yapp 19 Roundheads Right Cavaliers Wrong Romantic Repulsive

20. The Futurists Dilemma June 11 CIKTN Chris Yapp 20 ? Focussed Theme High Credibility Broad Vision Low Credibility Right Wrong

21. A Rose by any other name.. Bouba Kiki June 11 21 CIKTN Chris Yapp

22. Learning from the edge:Synesthesia June 11 22 CIKTN Chris Yapp

23. Emery and Trist Causal Texture Theory Four Textures Placid Random Placid Clustered Disturbed Reactive Turbulent June 11 CIKTN Chris Yapp 23

24. System and Environment June 11 CIKTN Chris Yapp 24 Environment System

25. The Links L11 Linking components of the system L22 Linking components of the environment L12 Linking the system to the environment (planning) L21 Linking the environment to the system (learning) June 11 CIKTN Chris Yapp 25

26. The Four Links June 11 CIKTN Chris Yapp 26 Environment L21 Organisation L22 L12 L11

27. Placid Random Organisation June 11 CIKTN Chris Yapp 27 Structure of Field Resources, goals and noxiants are randomly distributed in the Field. “Perfect Market Conditions” L11 Characteristics of successful coping Response strategies in the type Experience-based tactics Local optimization in the “here and now” Salient Links L11

28. Placid Clustered June 11 CIKTN Chris Yapp 28 Environment Structure of Field Resources, goals and/or noxiants are located in advantageous (“high ground”) positions L21 Organisation Characteristics of successful coping/response strategy in the type Strategizing for securing or accessing “high ground” locations and identifying right placing of outputs Attending to distinctive competence and resource Centralizing operations L11 Salient Links L11, L21

29. Disturbed Reactive June 11 CIKTN Chris Yapp 29 Environment Structure of Field Oligopoly Similar organizations in head-to-head competition More L12 and L21 L21 Organisation L12 Characteristics of successful coping/response strategy in type Game-based strategies Communicating with others to influence inputs Mounting operational “campaigns” Rapid decision making “coming to terms” with others sharing same field L11 Salient Links L11, L12,L21

30. Turbulence Organisation June 11 CIKTN Chris Yapp 30 Structure of Field The whole common ground is in motion. L22 uncertain and changing, taking on a life of its own Distinctions between L12-L21 and L22 begin to break down Environment L21 L22 L12 L11 Characteristics of successful coping/response strategy in the type No survival for systems acting alone Collaborative strategies among dissimilar organizations in the field Salient Links L11, L12,L21, L22 Distinction between 1 and 2 begin to break down

31. Prisoners of Language 1,000,000 cars People will always want shoes Classroom of the Future Library with no books 5 Computers June 11 31 CIKTN Chris Yapp

32. June 11 32 Who do you ask? “ What do you teach a child at 5 years old So that they will be IT Literate at 20? CIKTN Chris Yapp

33. June 11 33 Core to the problem.. The different disciplines involved The hardware doesn’t exist The software hasn’t been written Some of the key companies haven’t yet been formed So who do you ask? CIKTN Chris Yapp

34. June 11 34 Organisational culture Specialists and generalists Personal credibility Tolerance of uncertainty Story telling Leadership CIKTN Chris Yapp

35. Events 9/11 BSE Coalition Government Middle East: Tunisia, Egypt...... BLACK SWANS June 11 35 CIKTN Chris Yapp

36. Data-driven Innovation/Co-creation Web 2.0 bubble? Sustainability of Free/Freemium.. Impact of Regulation, e.g. EU Privacy, security Business models? Interdependencies... IPR regimes Everything has a history...? Demographics.... June 11 CIKTN Chris Yapp 36

37. Thank You! Any Questions? My BCS blog: http://www.bcs.org/content/conBlog/20 June 11 37 CIKTN Chris Yapp