Cgy it decisions june 2011


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Presentation at IT Decisions Conference on Scenario Planning and IT

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Cgy it decisions june 2011

  1. 1. SAMI Consulting, St Andrews Management Institute<br />6/29/2011<br /><br />1<br />Scenario Planning<br />And<br />IT Decision Making<br />Dr Chris Yapp<br /><br />IT Decisions Conference<br />June 2011<br />
  2. 2. SAMI<br />Our offer<br />To enhance the capability to anticipate <br />To transform emergent thinking into strategy and implementation<br />Consulting, executive education and research to deliver “robust decisions in uncertain times”<br />“You can never plan the future by the past”<br />Edmund Burke, 1729-1797<br />6/29/2011<br />2<br /><br />
  3. 3. Who we are<br /><ul><li>Formed in 1989</li></ul>Until 1999 based at St Andrews University<br />Now virtual, owned by University & Fellows<br />Celebrated our 20th anniversary at the Royal Society<br /><ul><li>People:</li></ul>8 Fellows, <br />Director level experience in major organisations, public and private sectors, <br />Consult, teach & write on business, policy, strategy and futures, leadership; <br />7 Principals, <br />Senior experience in major organisations, public and private sectors,<br />Experts in aspects of futures, strategic planning and organisational development<br />Also 46 Associates with specialist expertise eg <br />Sectors: oil & gas, ICT, FS, construction, government, health, NGOs<br />Functional specialists: innovation, creative spaces, audio-visual communication, occupational psychology, reconfiguration -----<br />6/29/2011<br />3<br /><br />
  4. 4. June 11<br />4<br />Futures Thinking<br />Contingency planning<br />Scenarios<br />Systems thinking<br />Complexity theory<br />Ethnographic Futures<br /><br />
  5. 5. Imagine 2011 in 1981<br />Technology<br />WWW<br />Mobile Phones<br />iPOD/PAD/Phone<br />DAB<br />DTT,HDTV,3DTV<br />Wii,Xbox360,PS3<br />BUT AI?, VideoConf?, Concorde 2,Bullet trains, FTTH,Flying cars…<br />What about<br />Chelsea FC owned by a Russian<br />BRICs<br />Global Terrorism<br />Climate Change<br />Bollywood<br />HIV/AIDS<br />
  6. 6. My Experience over 30 years<br />20% will happen as consensus<br />15% will happen but slower than consensus<br />5% will happen faster than consensus<br />15% will be superceded before it happens<br />10% stalls/disappoints<br />20% just doesn’t happen<br />15% is off Radar<br />6/29/2011<br /><br />6<br />
  7. 7. Three Horizons<br />
  8. 8. Repeating Problems<br />Standards Wars<br />WIIFM<br />Infrastructure lags<br />Long-term capacity developments<br />June 11<br /><br />8<br />
  9. 9. What type of future?<br />Desired ( my plan)<br />Desirable ( Plan B)<br />Plausible ( time to rethink?)<br />Consensus ( my contrarian plan)<br />Unpleasant ( don’t want to go there)<br />June 11<br /><br />9<br />
  10. 10. Beware…<br />Modern Myths<br />This time it’s different…<br />Putting New in front of everything..<br />Everything has a history<br />Revolution or cohort effects<br />Roadblocks (IPv6?)<br />
  11. 11. Unpicking Assumptions<br />“The problem is that companies just don’t get Web 2.0.<br />The benefits are out there and the tools are cheap. Planning is expensive and wasteful. Get on with realising the benefits”<br />A Social Media guru<br />While at the same time...<br />Predicted 100% compound growth for 5 years<br />All existing services would still be there and free<br />Values of today’s teenagers would still be their values in 10 years<br />Governments wouldn’t regulate...<br />June 11<br /><br />11<br />
  12. 12. 1066 and All That<br />June 11<br /><br />12<br />Roundheads<br />Right<br />Cavaliers<br />Wrong<br />Romantic<br />Repulsive<br />
  13. 13. The Futurists Dilemma<br />June 11<br /><br />13<br /> ?<br />Focussed<br />Theme<br />High<br />Credibility<br />Broad<br />Vision<br />Low <br />Credibility<br />Right<br />Wrong<br />
  14. 14. Dimensions of the Current Challenge<br />June 11<br />14<br />structural<br />Economic<br />Change<br />Market Step Change<br />Niche Portfolio<br />Reactive<br />Proactive<br />Strategic<br /> Response<br />Sitting Tight<br />Mopping up<br />cyclical<br /><br />
  15. 15. Dynamics of the Current Challenge<br />June 11<br />15<br />New Entrant<br />structural<br />Economic<br />Change<br />Market Step Change<br />Niche Portfolio<br />Reactive<br />Proactive<br />Strategic<br /> Response<br />Sitting Tight<br />Mopping up<br />cyclical<br /><br />
  16. 16. June 11<br />16<br />Problem Types<br />Do we know where<br />We are going?<br />YES<br /> Best practice<br />Scaling practice<br />TASK:<br />Operational<br />Management<br />TASK:<br />Process<br />Development<br />NO<br />YES<br />Do we know<br />How to get<br />There?<br />TASK:<br />Direction<br />Setting<br />TASK:<br />Concept<br />Creation<br />Next practice<br />Emerging practice<br />NO<br />After Eddie Obeng<br /><br />
  17. 17. Whose Problem?<br />June 11<br />17<br />High<br />Political<br />System<br />Think<br />Tank<br />Complexity<br />Consultant<br />Wisdom of<br />The Crowds<br />Academic<br />/Expert<br />Low<br />Low<br />High<br />Uncertainty<br /><br />
  18. 18. What value?<br />June 11<br />18<br />High<br />Political<br />System<br />Think<br />Tank<br />Track record<br />Complexity<br />Ideas<br />Consultant<br />Wisdom of<br />The Crowds<br />Knowledge<br />Academic<br />/Expert<br />Low<br />Low<br />High<br />Uncertainty<br /><br />
  19. 19. During Step Change?<br />June 11<br />19<br />High<br />Political<br />System<br />Consultancy squeezed as limited track record<br />Think<br />Tank<br />Complexity<br />Consultant<br />Wisdom of<br />The Crowds<br />Academic<br />/Expert<br />Low<br />Low<br />High<br />Uncertainty<br /><br />
  20. 20. Timing<br />“In the Future blind People will<br />Be able to drive cars”<br />June 11<br />20<br /><br />
  21. 21. Results<br />Probability 0.9 with some 0.2<br />Today with Resources: 1-3 years<br />In practice: 3-10 years<br />In reality: 10-100 years<br />June 11<br />21<br /><br />
  22. 22. Why do we get it wrong?<br />Today!!!<br />Prisoners of Language<br />Timing<br />Unintended consequences<br />Sources of Innovation<br />Ask the wrong question/people?<br />Culture<br />Events<br />June 11<br />22<br /><br />
  23. 23. Not understanding today…<br />Societies taboos<br />Bubbles<br />Poor data for emerging trends<br />Examples<br />Police<br />Paedophiles<br />Education<br />International/global interconnectivity<br />June 11<br />23<br /><br />
  24. 24. Timing<br />Inevitability-Predictability<br />Risk and uncertainty<br />Unforseen barriers<br />Social factors<br />Long-term skill developments<br />June 11<br />24<br /><br />
  25. 25. Sources of Innovation<br />Manufacturer Active Process<br />User Active process<br />Source: Eric Von Hippel, MIT<br />
  26. 26. Innovation <br />Open Innovation has a 200 year history<br />Innovation with lead users preceded the internet<br />Professional solve their own problems<br />Big shift in computing is that consumers not industry in the driving seat.<br />
  27. 27. A Rose by any other name..<br />Bouba<br />Kiki<br />June 11<br />27<br /><br />
  28. 28. Learning from the edge:Synesthesia<br />June 11<br />28<br /><br />
  29. 29. Prisoners of Language<br />1,000,000 cars<br />People will always want shoes<br />Classroom of the Future<br />Library with no books<br />5 Computers<br />June 11<br />29<br /><br />
  30. 30. June 11<br />30<br />Who do you ask?<br />“ What do you teach a child at 5 years old<br />So that they will be IT Literate at 20?<br /><br />
  31. 31. June 11<br />31<br />Core to the problem..<br />The different disciplines involved<br />The hardware doesn’t exist<br />The software hasn’t been written<br />Some of the key companies haven’t yet been formed<br />So who do you ask?<br /><br />
  32. 32. June 11<br />32<br />Organisational culture<br />Specialists and generalists<br />Personal credibility<br />Tolerance of uncertainty<br />Story telling<br />Leadership<br /><br />
  33. 33. Events<br />9/11<br />BSE<br />Coalition Government<br />Middle East: Tunisia, Egypt......<br />BLACK SWANS<br />June 11<br />33<br /><br />
  34. 34. Uncertainties Today<br />Web 2.0 bubble?<br />IPv4 to IPv6 transition<br />Sustainability of Free/Freemium..<br />Impact of Regulation, e.g. EU<br />Privacy, security<br />Business models?<br />Interdependencies...<br />IPR regimes<br />Everything has a history...?<br />Demographics....<br />Energy Security<br />Public/Private Clouds<br />June 11<br /><br />34<br />
  35. 35. Overoptimism or hype?<br /><br />
  36. 36. Hofstadter’s Law<br />It always takes longer than you expect, even when you take into account Hofstadter's Law<br />29/06/2011<br />36<br /><br />
  37. 37. Thank You!<br />Any Questions?<br />My BCS blog:<br />Twitter: @chris_yapp<br />June 11<br />37<br /><br />