The Future Of Social Networks

The Future Of Social Networks Charlene Li Vice President & Principal Analyst Co-author of Groundswell Forrester Research March 4, 2008

They are online with their social networks

Theme Social networks will be like air.

Components of social networks
Profile
Relationships
Activities
Business model
Universal identity A single social graph Social context for activities Social influence defines marketing value

My multiple identities

Universal identity
[email_address]
[email_address]
Mobile number

Universal identity foundations
Federation (OpenID approach)
A few major players will serve as major federation focal points
Yahoo!, Microsoft, Google, Plaxo, etc.
All players must realize that they can grow the market faster/better by working together
Data Portability Group is the beginning

Bill of Rights for Users of the Social Web
“ We publicly assert that all users of the social web are entitled to certain fundamental rights, specifically:
Ownership of their own personal information, including:
their own profile data
the list of people they are connected to
the activity stream of content they create;
Control of whether and how such personal information is shared with others; and
Freedom to grant persistent access to their personal information to trusted external sites.”
- Authored by Joseph Smarr, Marc Canter, Robert Scoble, and Michael Arrington
http://blog.broadbandmechanics.com/2007/09/a-bill-of-rights-for-users-of-the-social-web

My Facebook social graph Missing Colleagues Parents Extended family School parents Neighbors Babysitter Walking group

My real social graph is much more complex

Let’s end the insanity

Relationships today are explicit – and a pain Twitter Facebook LinkedIn Plaxo

New “entrants” will challenge the incumbents Millions of regular users Search & deep content Ad and content networks Relationship maps

Relationship mapping will be automatic and permission-based

What people do today on social networks

Dave has a nice book review on Facebook

But it would be more helpful on Amazon “ See friends’ reviews”

How Yahoo! could incorporate social networks Search based on what my friends finds relevant See which of my friends owns a Focus – and what they think of it Compare daily portfolio performance to friends’ Elevate stories tagged by friends – anywhere

The under-rated value of networks

Endorsement value depends on your network
Your authority on the specific topic
Your network’s interest and authority on the topic
The trust level among your network on the topic

The future business model for social networks
Marketers will pay to reach and influence valuable
Each person will have their own “personal CPM”*
Social networks will compete to have the best experience for high-influence individuals
* From Marian Salzman, JWT

Evolution of open platforms Walled garden services Portal aggregators 1993 1999 2003 2008-9 2013 Search freedom Data portability Ubiquitous social networks

Recommendations
Create linkages between services based on individually-controlled identity federation
Compete on creating the most compelling social experience, not social graph lock-in
Develop social applications that have meaning
Integrate social networks into existing activities
Design business models that reflect the value created by people’s social networks

Thank you Charlene Li +1 650.581.3833 [email_address] www.forrester.com groundswell.forrester.com

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The Future Of Social Networks

by Charlene Li

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