The 2017 Budget and Economic Outlook

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Congressional Budget Office

Presentation by Keith Hall, CBO Director, to the Prosperity Caucus

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Congressional Budget Office
The 2017 Budget and Economic Outlook
Presentation to the Prosperity Caucus
Washington, D.C.
March 30, 2017
Keith Hall
Director
This presentation draws on The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2017 to 2027 (January 2017), www.cbo.gov/publication/52370.

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The Economic Outlook

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Presentation by Keith Hall, CBO Director, at the Peter G. Peterson Foundation’s 2016 Fiscal Summit. In 2016, the federal budget deficit will increase, in relation to the size of the economy, for the first time since 2009, according to CBO’s estimates. If current laws generally remained unchanged, the deficit would grow over the next 10 years, and by 2026 it would be considerably larger than its average over the past 50 years, CBO projects. Debt held by the public would also grow significantly from its already high level. To analyze the state of the budget in the long term, CBO has extrapolated its 10-year baseline projections an additional two decades. If current laws governing taxes and spending remain in place, the outlook for the budget would steadily worsen over the long term, with revenues falling well short of spending. CBO is in the process of completing a detailed update of its long-term projections; but in January the agency did a simplified update. On that basis, budget deficits are projected to rise steadily and federal debt held by the public is projected to exceed 130 percent of GDP by 2040. To put the federal budget on a sustainable path for the long term, lawmakers would have to make major changes to tax policies, spending policies, or both – by reducing spending for large benefit programs below the projected amounts, letting revenues rise more than they would under current law, or adopting some combination of those approaches. The size of such changes would depend on the amount of federal debt that lawmakers considered appropriate.

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The 2017 Budget and Economic Outlook

1. Congressional Budget Office The 2017 Budget and Economic Outlook Presentation to the Prosperity Caucus Washington, D.C. March 30, 2017 Keith Hall Director This presentation draws on The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2017 to 2027 (January 2017), www.cbo.gov/publication/52370.

2. 1CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE The Budget Outlook

3. 2CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE

4. 3CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE

5. 4CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE

6. 5CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE

7. 6CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE

8. 7CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE

9. 8CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE

10. 9CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE

11. 10CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE

12. 11CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE

13. 12CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE

14. 13CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE

15. 14CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE The Economic Outlook

16. 15CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE Economic Outlook

17. CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE 16

18. CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE 17

19. CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE 18

20. CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE 19

21. CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE 20

22. 21CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE