SlideShare a Scribd company logo
1 of 14
Download to read offline
Economic Outlook Survey
January 2017
Economic Outlook Survey
GDP growth estimated at 6.8% in 2016-17: FICCI’s Economic Outlook Survey
HIGHLIGHTS
GDP growth for FY 17 estimated at 6.8%
The latest round of FICCI’s Economic Outlook
Survey puts forth an annual median GDP growth
forecast of 6.8% for 2016-17. This is 0.5
percentage points lower than the estimate of 7.3%
put across in the last round. The survey was
conducted in the months of December 2016/
January 2017 and drew responses from leading
economists representing industry, banking and
financial services sector.
Median Estimates
Economic Outlook
Survey: 2016-17
CSO
estimates
Growth
(in %)
Present
Round
Last
Round
GDP@
market
prices
6.8 7.3 7.1
GVA@ basic
prices
6.7 7.5 7.0
Agriculture
& Allied
activities
3.2 3.1 4.1
Industry 5.7 7.1 5.2
Services 8.5 9.1 8.8
The Central Statistical Organization had estimated
a GDP growth of 7.1% for 2016-17 earlier in
January this year.
According to the survey results, agriculture sector
is expected to witness an uptick in the fiscal year
2016-17. The monsoons have been good which is
expected to support agricultural production.
However, both industry and services sectors are
anticipated to moderate. Industry and services
sector are expected to grow by 5.7% and 8.5%
respectively in 2016-17.
The decision of the Government to demonetize
high value currency notes has had an impact on
the cash dependent sectors primarily belonging to
the informal economy. This is expected to cause
some slowdown in industrial and services sector
growth.
Retail trade, hospitality, tourism, gems and
jewellery have reported a dip in business. Even
sectors like automobiles and consumer goods
have seen a drop in demand especially in rural
areas.
However, once the re-monetization phase is
complete and currency is back in circulation, GDP
growth would see a recovery.
Quarter 3 and Quarter 4 FY 17 GDP growth
Median Estimates
Economic Outlook Survey
Growth (in %) Q3
2016-17
Q4
2016-17
GDP@ market
prices
6.8 6.7
GVA@ basic
prices
6.7 6.7
Agriculture &
Allied activities
2.9 2.9
Industry 5.3 5.6
Services 7.7 7.8
IIP growth @1.5% in 2016-17
The median growth forecast for IIP has been put
at 1.5% for the year 2016-17, with a minimum
and maximum range of (-) 2.1% and 2.9%
respectively. This is marginally lower than the
estimate of 1.7% put across in the last survey
round.
Inflation to remain benign
The median forecast for Wholesale Price Index
based inflation rate for 2016-17 has been put at
3.4%, with a minimum and maximum range of
3.1% and 3.5% respectively.
WPI inflation is projected at 3.8% for the fourth
quarter of 2016-17.
Consumer Price Index has a median forecast of
4.7% for 2016-17, with a minimum and
maximum range of 3.8% and 5.1% respectively.
CPI forecast for Q4 2016-17 was put at 4.2%
according to our survey results.
Economic Outlook Survey
Fiscal Deficit to GDP ratio for 2016-17 to be in
line with Government’s indicative trajectory
Repo Rate
VIEWS OF ECONOMISTS
Views on remonetization and the course of
economic recovery
On November 8, 2016, the Government decided to
demonetize high denomination currency notes in
order to unearth black money and counterfeit
currency. The economy has been impacted
temporarily, however the process of
remonetisation is underway and is gradually
gaining momentum. Given this backdrop,
economists were asked to share their prognosis
on the likely course of economic recovery.
The economists had a divided view on the time
frame by which the economy would return to
normalcy. Although some believed that things will
start rolling back to the way they were in the pre-
demonetization days by the end of the current
quarter (March 2017), others felt that it could take
at least two more quarters for things to fully settle
(June 2017).
Economists pointed out that India’s economic
growth was being propelled by government
spending and private consumption and the latter
has been hit due to the demonetization move. This
will affect recovery in investments and overall
growth. Economists felt that the government will
continue the focus on additional spending
especially in infrastructure projects to give a push
to the economy.
Nonetheless, the regulatory bodies have been
taking steps to put the economy back on track.
The process of remonetisation has started and the
RBI and government has taken several measures
such as speedy recalibration of ATMs, acceleration
in the pace of printing new notes, increase cash
withdrawal limits etc. to pump cash into the
system. The Government is also on the course of
improving the electronic payments infrastructure
to move the country to a less cash economy.
The road to remonetisation, thus, will be paved
with less dependency on cash and greater focus on
digital transactions. This will not only make
payments more transparent and consequently
boost government’s revenue, but will prove to be
a boon for the Indian economy in the medium to
long run.
With regard to digitization, economists felt that
the transition from cash to digital payments will
be harder in the rural areas. It was suggested that
instead of promoting plastic currency, the Aadhar
enabled payment system would facilitate a
smooth transition in the rural areas.
In addition, the participating economists opined
that the demonetization exercise would lead to a
healthy correction in many sectors of the
economy, especially in the real estate segment.
3.7
4.2
4.7
0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0
Q3 FY17
Q4 FY17
FY17
CPI Growth Forecast ( %)
4.8
4.4
4.0 3.9
3.5
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17
Fiscal deficit as a % of GDP
Repo Rate
End of 2016-17
6.25%
Economic Outlook Survey
Assessment of the forthcoming monetary
policy
Economists were also asked to share their
assessment about the bi-monthly monetary policy
to be announced in the first week of February
2017. A majority of the respondents expected the
Reserve Bank of India to maintain status quo with
regard to repo rate on account of domestic and
global factors.
The economists felt that the forthcoming Union
Budget 2017-18 is likely to be expansionary and
some fiscal stimulus is on the way from
Government’s side. It was opined that the Reserve
Bank would like to take a detailed account of the
stimulus and the borrowing targets before taking
a decision to cut the repo rate.
Also, upside risks to inflation remain as the global
commodity prices are firming up. The central bank
would continue to closely watch the inflation level.
Further, some major banks have recently revised
down their lending rate which has given room to
the Reserve Bank to undertake a halt.
On the global front, policy stance of developed
nations such as the United States will be critical.
However, economists anticipate the
accommodative stance to continue with a
probable rate cut of 25 bps in first half of the
financial year 2017-18.
Expectations from the Union Budget 2017-18
The forthcoming Union Budget will be a budget of
many firsts and assumes greater significance in
light of the demonetization move of the
Government. In fact, 2016 has been a year of some
exceptional events – both on the global and
domestic fronts. Amidst an environment of
persisting uncertainty, it will be important for
India to keep the focus on strengthening the
domestic economy.
The participating economists were asked to share
their top five expectations from the Union Budget
2017-18. The respondents unanimously felt that
the budget should revamp the income tax slabs for
both individuals and corporates. This will help
lend some support to the consumer spending
which has been hit post demonetisation.
Also, allocations towards agriculture in form of
increased expenditure on irrigation and higher
spend on MNREGA are seen, which will give a
thrust to rural demand.
A majority of respondents indicated more
incentives being announced for promoting digital
transactions. It was also suggested that additional
benefits should be bestowed upon Fintech
companies in a bid to move towards a cashless
economy. Respondents also hoped that the budget
would look at addressing the impact of
demonetisation on the informal sector which is
largely cash dependent. It is important to ensure
that there are enough incentives for the informal
setups to move into the formal system.
Government is also expected to continue the focus
on infrastructure, MSME, real estate and housing
sector.
Real estate sector has been displaying a muted
performance and has been further affected by
demonetisation. The sector is likely to have a
mention in the budget and new schemes and
policies to revive the real estate sector and the
housing segment - especially affordable housing
can be on the anvil.
Some of the other expectations indicated by the
participating economists were - greater infusion
of capital in public sector banks and
announcement of further measures to strengthen
asset quality of the public sector banks.
The economists opined that the forthcoming
budget would focus on giving an impetus to
growth (which is inclusive) and provide fillip to
gross fixed capital formation by enhancing
complementarities between public and private
investment.
Steps would also be taken towards reviving and
deepening of the corporate bond market.
Also, they expect the government to further boost
its efforts to increase employment through its
flagship programmes such as ‘Make in India’ and
‘Skill India’. Economists also expect the
government to unveil incentives to promote
exports.
Economic Outlook Survey
Majority of the economists also believed that
guidelines will be laid for the roll out of the Goods
and Services Tax.
Top Global Trends of 2017
Upsides
1. Fiscal incentives to stimulate consumption
demand
2. Pick up in investment demand
3. Higher global growth with US economy
expected to pickup
4. Higher trade growth
Downside Risks
1. Policy uncertainty in major advanced
economies and a sense of protectionist
sentiment
2. Rising global commodity prices
3. Tightening of Monetary Policy by Federal
Reserve
4. BREXIT and further weakening of Europe
5. Continued economic slowdown in China and
other emerging market economies
Key upside and downside risks for India
Upsides
1. Stable macroeconomic fundamentals –
moderate inflation, range bound current
account deficit and fiscal deficit
2. Structural reforms such as GST and law on
Insolvency & Bankruptcy
3. Shift towards digitization
4. Effective policy reform towards a transparent
tax structure
5. Continued government spending on
infrastructure investments
Downside Risks
1. Weak domestic investments
2. High Non Performing Assets
3. Risk of rising trade deficit owing to higher
crude prices
4. Higher capital outflows as interest rate
differential between US and India narrow
5. Rupee remaining weak and volatile
6. Impact of demonetisation
a) liquidity shortage
b) weak consumption demand
Economic Outlook Survey
Survey Profile
The present round of FICCI’s Economic Outlook Survey was conducted in the months of December 2016/
January 2017 and drew responses from leading economists representing industry, banking and financial
services sector. The economists were asked to provide forecast for key macro-economic variables for the year
2016-17 as well as for Q3 (September-December) FY17 and Q4 (January- March) FY17.
In addition, economists were asked to share their views on certain contemporary subjects. Views were sought
on the top trends to look out for in the year 2017. Economists were also asked to share the prognosis about
economy post demonetization and their expectations from the forthcoming Union Budget. The participants
were also asked to give their assessment of the forthcoming monetary policy.
Survey Results: Part A
Projections – Key Economic Parameters
National Accounts
GDP growth at 2011-12 prices
Annual (2016-17) Q3 2016-17 Q4 2016-17
Growth (in %) Median Min Max Median Min Max Median Min Max
GDP@ market prices 6.8 6.6 7.1 6.8 5.5 7.0 6.7 6.2 7.0
GVA@ basic prices 6.7 6.5 7.1 6.7 5.9 7.0 6.7 5.9 7.1
Agriculture & Allied
activities
3.2 2.4 4.1 2.9 2.2 4.0 2.9 2.5 3.8
Industry 5.7 4.8 6.9 5.3 4.0 6.9 5.6 4.4 7.1
Services 8.5 7.8 9.3 7.7 7.0 9.0 7.8 7.4 9.2
The latest round of FICCI’s Economic Outlook Survey puts forth an annual median GDP growth forecast of
6.8% for 2016-17. This is 0.5 percentage points lower than the estimate of 7.3% put across in the last
round.
The median growth forecast for agriculture and allied activities has been put at 3.2% for 2016-17, with a
minimum and maximum growth estimate of 2.4% and 4.1% respectively. Industry and services sector are
expected to grow by 5.7% and 8.5% respectively in 2016-17.
The quarterly median forecasts indicate a GDP growth of 6.8% in Q3 2016-17 and 6.7% in Q4 2016-17.
The ratio of Gross Fixed Capital Formation to
GDP for 2016-17 has been estimated at 29.1%.
The median growth prediction for Q4 2016-17
is put at 27.2%.27.4 27.2
29.1
26.0
26.5
27.0
27.5
28.0
28.5
29.0
29.5
Q3 FY17 Q4 FY17 FY17
GrossFixed Capital Formationas % of
GDPMP(in %)
Economic Outlook Survey
Index of Industrial Production (IIP)
Wholesale Price Index (WPI) & Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Fiscal Deficit
The median growth forecast for IIP was put
at 1.5% for 2016-17 by the participating
economists, with a minimum and maximum
range of (-) 2.1% and 2.9% respectively.
Although industrial production has remained
weak for most part of 2016, the latest IIP
data reported improvement in growth. The
index grew by 5.7% in the month of
November 2016 vis-à-vis (-) 1.8% growth in
October 2016.
Median Wholesale Price Index based inflation rate is projected at 3.4% in 2016-17, with a minimum and
maximum range of 3.1% and 3.5% respectively. The latest actual data on WPI puts across an inflation rate
of 3.4% for the month of December 2016, with inflation in the third quarter of 2016-17 at 3.4%.
According to the survey results, the WPI inflation is projected at 3.8% for the fourth quarter of 2016-17.
Consumer Price Index has a median forecast of 4.7% for 2016-17, with a minimum and maximum range of
3.8% and 5.1% respectively. CPI forecast for Q4 2016-17 was put at 4.2% according to our survey results.
The median fiscal deficit to GDP ratio was put at
3.5% for the fiscal year 2016-17 with a minimum
and maximum range of 3.5% and 3.6%
respectively.
1.9 1.8
1.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
Q3 FY17 Q4 FY17 FY17
IIP Growth Forecast (in %)
3.4
3.8
3.4
3.2 3.4 3.6 3.8 4.0
Q3 FY17
Q4 FY17
FY17
WPI Growth Forecast ( %)
3.7
4.2
4.7
0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0
Q3 FY17
Q4 FY17
FY17
CPI GrowthForecast ( %)
4.8 4.4
4.0 3.9
3.5
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17
Fiscal deficit as a % of GDP
Economic Outlook Survey
Money and Banking
External Sector
2016-17 Exports Imports
USD billion 268.2 380.2
Growth (in %) 2.2 -2.5
Repo Rate
End of 2016-17
6.25%
Growth in exports has picked up and has remained
in the positive zone for four consecutive months
ending December 2016. However going forward,
weak external demand and inward looking policies
by major economies can pose a risk.
Based on the responses of the participating
economists, the median growth forecast for exports
has been put at 2.2% for fiscal year 2016-17 and for
imports at (-) 2.5%.
6.0 6.3
7.8
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
Q3 FY17 Q4 FY17 FY17
Bank Credit:Growth(in %)
67.8
68.0 68.0
67.6
67.7
67.7
67.8
67.8
67.9
67.9
68.0
68.0
68.1
Q3 FY17 Q4 FY17 FY17
USD/INRExchangeRate - End period
CAD as
% of
GDP
2016-17
Present
Round
Last
Round
0.7% 0.8%
Economic Outlook Survey
Survey Results: Part B
Views of the Economists
VIEWS ON REMONETIZATION AND THE COURSE OF ECONOMIC RECOVERY
The Government decision to demonetize high denomination currency notes in order to unearth black money
and counterfeit currency has been a historic one. The move led to an immediate squeeze in liquidity and the
economy has been impacted temporarily; however the process of remonetisation is underway and is
gradually gaining momentum. Given this backdrop, economists were asked to share their prognosis on the
likely course of recovery.
The economists had a divided view on the time frame by which the economy would return to normalcy.
Although some believed that things will start rolling back to the way they were in the pre-demonetization
days by the end of the current quarter (March 2017), others felt that it could take at least two more quarters
for things to fully settle (June 2017).
Economists pointed out that India’s economic growth was being propelled by government spending and
private consumption and the latter has been hit due to the demonetization move. This will affect recovery in
investments and overall growth. The impact on the informal sector has been significant and is expected to
take more time to normalise. Economists felt that the government will continue the focus on additional
spending especially in infrastructure projects to give a push to the economy.
The regulatory bodies have taking steps to put the economy back on track. The process of remonetisation has
started and the RBI and government have taken several measures such as speedy recalibration of ATMs,
accelerating the pace of printing new notes, increase cash withdrawal limits etc. to pump cash into the
system. The Government is also on the course of improving the electronic payments infrastructure to move
the country to a less cash economy.
The road to remonetisation, thus, will be paved with less dependency on cash and greater focus on digital
transactions. This will not only make payments more transparent and consequently boost government
revenue, but will prove to be a boon for the Indian economy in the medium to long run.
With regard to digitization, economists felt that the transition from cash to digital payments will be harder in
the rural areas. It was suggested that instead of promoting plastic currency, the Aadhar enabled payment
system would facilitate a smooth transition in the rural areas.
In addition, the participating economists opined that the demonetization exercise would lead to a healthy
correction in many sectors of the economy, especially in the real estate segment.
ASSESSMENT OF THE FORTHCOMING MONETARY POLICY
Economists were also asked to share their assessment about bi-monthly monetary policy to be announced in
the first week of February 2017. A majority of the respondents expected the Reserve Bank of India to
maintain status quo with regard to repo rate on account of domestic and global factors.
The economists felt that the forthcoming Union Budget 2017-18 is likely to be expansionary and some fiscal
stimulus is on the way from Government’s side. It was opined that the Reserve Bank would like to take a
detailed account of the stimulus and the borrowing targets before taking a decision to cut the repo rate.
Economic Outlook Survey
Also, upside risks to inflation remain as the global commodity prices are firming up. The central bank would
continue to closely watch the inflation level, both overall as well as core inflation, alongside focusing on
growth considerations. This stance has also been indicated in its previous policy report.
Further, some major banks have recently revised down their lending rate which has given some room to the
Reserve Bank to undertake a halt.
On the global front, policy stance of developed nations such as the United States will be critical. The prevailing
global economic conditions and volatility in the financial markets are also expected to act as deterrents.
However, economists anticipate the accommodative stance to continue with a probable rate cut of 25 bps in
first half of the financial year 2017-18.
EXPECTATIONS FROM THE UNION BUDGET 2017-18
The forthcoming Union Budget will be a budget of many firsts and assumes greater significance in light of the
demonetization move of the Government. In fact, 2016 has been a year of some exceptional events – both on
global and domestic fronts. Amidst an environment of persisting uncertainty, it will be important for India to
keep the focus on strengthening the domestic economy.
The participating economists were asked to share their top five expectations from the Union Budget 2017-18.
The respondents unanimously felt that the budget should revamp the income tax slabs for both individuals as
well as corporates. This will help lend some support to the consumer spending which has been hit post
demonetisation.
Also, allocations towards agriculture in form of increased expenditure on irrigation and higher spend on
MNREGA are seen, which will give a thrust to rural demand.
A majority of respondents indicated more incentives being announced for promoting digital transactions. It
was also suggested that additional benefits should be bestowed upon Fintech companies in a bid to move
towards a cashless economy. Respondents also hoped that the budget would look at addressing the impact of
demonetisation on the informal sector which is largely cash dependent. It is important to ensure that there
are enough incentives for the informal setups to move into the formal system.
Government is also expected to continue the focus on infrastructure, MSME, real estate and housing sector.
Real estate sector has been affected by demonetisation and has been displaying a muted performance. The
sector is likely to have a mention in the budget and new schemes and policies to revive the real estate sector
and the housing segment - especially affordable housing can be on the anvil.
Some of the other expectations indicated by the participating economists were - greater infusion of capital in
public sector banks and announcement of further measures to strengthen asset quality of the public sector
banks.
The economists opined that the forthcoming budget would focus on giving an impetus to growth (which is
inclusive) and provide fillip to gross fixed capital formation by enhancing complementarities between public
and private investment.
Steps would be taken towards reviving and deepening of the corporate bond market and a time frame for
disposal of SARFAESI cases will be indicated.
Also, they expect the government to further boost its efforts to increase employment through its flagship
programmes such as ‘Make in India’ and ‘Skill India’. Economists also expect the government to unveil
incentives to promote exports.
Economic Outlook Survey
Majority of the economists also believed that guidelines will be laid for the roll out of the Goods and Services
Tax.
TOP GLOBAL TRENDS OF 2017
KEY UPSIDE AND DOWNSIDE RISKS FOR INDIA
1. Fiscal incentives to
stimulate consumption
demand
2. Pick up in investment
demand
3. Higher global growth with
US economy expected to
pickup
4. Higher trade growth
1. Policy uncertainty in major
advanced economies and a
sense of protectionist
sentiment
2. Rising global commodity
prices
3. Tightening of Monetary
Policy by Federal Reserve
4. BREXIT and further
weakening of Europe
5. Continued economic
slowdown in China and
other emerging market
economies
6. Sluggish global trade
1. Stable macroeconomic fundamentals –
moderate inflation, range bound current
account deficit and fiscal deficit
2. Structural reforms such as GST and law on
Insolvency & Bankruptcy
3. Shift towards digitization
4. Effective policy reform towards a
transparent tax structure
5. Additional government spending on
infrastructure investments
1. Weak domestic investments
2. High Non Performing Assets
3. Risk of rising trade deficit owing to higher
crude prices
4. Higher capital outflows as interest rate
differential between US and India narrow
5. Rupee remaining weak and volatile
6. Impact of demonetisation
a) liquidity shortage
b) weak consumption demand
Economic Outlook Survey
Appendix
Outlook
2016-17
Outlook
Q3 2016-17
Outlook
Q4 2016-17
Key Macroeconomic Variables Mean Median Min Max Mean Median Min Max Mean Median Min Max
GDP growth rate at market
prices (%)
6.8 6.8 6.6 7.1 6.4 6.8 5.5 7.0 6.6 6.7 6.2 7.0
GVA growth rate at basic prices
(%)
6.8 6.7 6.5 7.1 6.5 6.7 5.9 7.0 6.6 6.7 5.9 7.1
Agriculture & Allied 3.2 3.2 2.4 4.1 3.0 2.9 2.2 4.0 3.0 2.9 2.5 3.8
Industry 5.8 5.7 4.8 6.9 5.4 5.3 4.0 6.9 5.7 5.6 4.4 7.1
Services 8.5 8.5 7.8 9.3 7.9 7.7 7.0 9.0 8.1 7.8 7.4 9.2
Gross Domestic Savings (% of
GDP at market prices)
30.6 30.5 29.0 32.3 30.1 31.0 27.9 31.3 30.2 31.5 27.5 31.5
Gross Fixed Capital Formation
(% of GDP at market prices)
29.8 29.1 26.6 35.8 28.2 27.4 25.7 32.2 28.1 27.2 25.3 32.5
Fiscal Deficit (as % to GDP)
Centre
3.5 3.5 3.5 3.6 - - - - - - - -
Growth in IIP (%) 1.0 1.5 -2.1 2.9 2.2 1.9 -0.7 5.7 2.5 1.8 0.3 5.9
WPI Inflation rate (%) 3.4 3.4 3.1 3.5 3.4 3.4 3.1 3.5 4.1 3.8 3.4 4.8
CPI combined new inflation
rate (%)
4.5 4.7 3.8 5.1 3.8 3.7 3.4 4.4 4.2 4.2 3.7 4.8
Money supply growth M3 (%)
(end period)
11.5 11.4 11.2 12.0 9.6 10.1 6.5 11.9 11.9 12.0 11.2 12.5
Bank credit growth (%) 8.1 7.8 5.5 11.0 6.2 6.0 5.1 8.1 7.2 6.3 5.7 10.0
Economic Outlook Survey
Repo Rate (end period) - 6.25 6.00 6.25 - - - - - - - -
Merchandise Export
Value in USD billion 266.9 268.2 260.0 270.5 66.3 67.1 63.0 67.9 68.6 69.7 65.0 70.0
Growth (%) 2.5 2.2 -0.5 6.5 2.4 3.3 -3.1 6.6 3.1 3.6 -2.8 7.9
Merchandise Import
Value in USD billion 374.8 380.2 364.0 383.4 99.8 101.0 95.0 102.4 98.5 97.9 92.0 106.0
Growth (%) -1.5 -2.5 -4.1 3.5 2.0 2.0 -2.1 6.1 10.1 5.8 -2.5 27.1
Trade Balance (% to GDP) -4.8 -4.9 -6.0 -4.0 -4.4 -4.5 -4.0 -4.8 -4.9 -4.9 -4.2 -5.6
CAB as % of GDP at current
price
-0.8 -0.7 -0.1 -2.0 -0.7 -0.8 -1.0 -0.2 -0.5 -0.3 -0.1 -1.1
US$ / INR exchange rate (end
period)
68.1 68.0 67.0 69.3 67.7 67.8 67.2 68.2 68.1 68.0 67.0 69.3
Economic Outlook Survey
Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry
Federation House
Tansen Marg, New Delhi 110001
Follow us on
Disclaimer: All views in this report are those of the participating economists.

More Related Content

What's hot

Wayne Lippman: AICPA Business & Industry U.S. Economic Outlook Survey 3Q 2015
Wayne Lippman: AICPA Business & Industry U.S. Economic Outlook Survey 3Q 2015Wayne Lippman: AICPA Business & Industry U.S. Economic Outlook Survey 3Q 2015
Wayne Lippman: AICPA Business & Industry U.S. Economic Outlook Survey 3Q 2015Wayne Lippman
 
CII - 85th Business Outlook Survey October- December 2013
CII - 85th Business Outlook Survey October- December 2013CII - 85th Business Outlook Survey October- December 2013
CII - 85th Business Outlook Survey October- December 2013BFSICM
 
Ficci business-confidence-survey
Ficci business-confidence-surveyFicci business-confidence-survey
Ficci business-confidence-surveyBFSICM
 
Weekly media update 02 09_2019
Weekly media update 02 09_2019Weekly media update 02 09_2019
Weekly media update 02 09_2019BalmerLawrie
 
Weekly media update 20 08_2018
Weekly media update 20 08_2018Weekly media update 20 08_2018
Weekly media update 20 08_2018BalmerLawrie
 
Babson Capital/UNC Charlotte Economic Forecast - September 10, 2013
Babson Capital/UNC Charlotte Economic Forecast - September 10, 2013Babson Capital/UNC Charlotte Economic Forecast - September 10, 2013
Babson Capital/UNC Charlotte Economic Forecast - September 10, 2013PublicFinanceTV
 
Focus of the Month: Ease of Doing Business: Moving Ahead Steadily
Focus of the Month: Ease of Doing Business: Moving Ahead SteadilyFocus of the Month: Ease of Doing Business: Moving Ahead Steadily
Focus of the Month: Ease of Doing Business: Moving Ahead SteadilyConfederation of Indian Industry
 
HDFC Securities' Monthly Strategy report - September 2014
HDFC Securities' Monthly Strategy report - September 2014HDFC Securities' Monthly Strategy report - September 2014
HDFC Securities' Monthly Strategy report - September 2014IndiaNotes.com
 
Weekly media update 09 09_2019
Weekly media update 09 09_2019Weekly media update 09 09_2019
Weekly media update 09 09_2019BalmerLawrie
 
Weekly media update 26 08_2019
Weekly media update 26 08_2019Weekly media update 26 08_2019
Weekly media update 26 08_2019BalmerLawrie
 
Weekly media update 26 08_2019_edited
Weekly media update 26 08_2019_editedWeekly media update 26 08_2019_edited
Weekly media update 26 08_2019_editedBalmerLawrie
 
Weekly media update 05.02.2018
Weekly media update 05.02.2018Weekly media update 05.02.2018
Weekly media update 05.02.2018BalmerLawrie
 
Weekly media update 08 02_2021
Weekly media update 08 02_2021Weekly media update 08 02_2021
Weekly media update 08 02_2021BalmerLawrie
 
Weekly media update 08 04_2019
Weekly media update 08 04_2019Weekly media update 08 04_2019
Weekly media update 08 04_2019BalmerLawrie
 

What's hot (20)

Focus of the Month: Rising NPAs of Banking Sector
Focus of the Month: Rising NPAs of  Banking SectorFocus of the Month: Rising NPAs of  Banking Sector
Focus of the Month: Rising NPAs of Banking Sector
 
Wayne Lippman: AICPA Business & Industry U.S. Economic Outlook Survey 3Q 2015
Wayne Lippman: AICPA Business & Industry U.S. Economic Outlook Survey 3Q 2015Wayne Lippman: AICPA Business & Industry U.S. Economic Outlook Survey 3Q 2015
Wayne Lippman: AICPA Business & Industry U.S. Economic Outlook Survey 3Q 2015
 
CII - 85th Business Outlook Survey October- December 2013
CII - 85th Business Outlook Survey October- December 2013CII - 85th Business Outlook Survey October- December 2013
CII - 85th Business Outlook Survey October- December 2013
 
FICCI's Economic Outlook Survey | July 2014
FICCI's Economic Outlook Survey | July 2014FICCI's Economic Outlook Survey | July 2014
FICCI's Economic Outlook Survey | July 2014
 
From the desk of Dr Didar Singh, Secretary Genera, FICCI
From the desk of Dr Didar Singh, Secretary Genera, FICCIFrom the desk of Dr Didar Singh, Secretary Genera, FICCI
From the desk of Dr Didar Singh, Secretary Genera, FICCI
 
Bank Credits to Agricultural and Manufacturing sectors and Economic Growth in...
Bank Credits to Agricultural and Manufacturing sectors and Economic Growth in...Bank Credits to Agricultural and Manufacturing sectors and Economic Growth in...
Bank Credits to Agricultural and Manufacturing sectors and Economic Growth in...
 
Ficci business-confidence-survey
Ficci business-confidence-surveyFicci business-confidence-survey
Ficci business-confidence-survey
 
Weekly media update 02 09_2019
Weekly media update 02 09_2019Weekly media update 02 09_2019
Weekly media update 02 09_2019
 
Weekly media update 20 08_2018
Weekly media update 20 08_2018Weekly media update 20 08_2018
Weekly media update 20 08_2018
 
Babson Capital/UNC Charlotte Economic Forecast - September 10, 2013
Babson Capital/UNC Charlotte Economic Forecast - September 10, 2013Babson Capital/UNC Charlotte Economic Forecast - September 10, 2013
Babson Capital/UNC Charlotte Economic Forecast - September 10, 2013
 
Focus of the Month: Ease of Doing Business: Moving Ahead Steadily
Focus of the Month: Ease of Doing Business: Moving Ahead SteadilyFocus of the Month: Ease of Doing Business: Moving Ahead Steadily
Focus of the Month: Ease of Doing Business: Moving Ahead Steadily
 
HDFC Securities' Monthly Strategy report - September 2014
HDFC Securities' Monthly Strategy report - September 2014HDFC Securities' Monthly Strategy report - September 2014
HDFC Securities' Monthly Strategy report - September 2014
 
Weekly media update 09 09_2019
Weekly media update 09 09_2019Weekly media update 09 09_2019
Weekly media update 09 09_2019
 
Weekly media update 26 08_2019
Weekly media update 26 08_2019Weekly media update 26 08_2019
Weekly media update 26 08_2019
 
Weekly media update 26 08_2019_edited
Weekly media update 26 08_2019_editedWeekly media update 26 08_2019_edited
Weekly media update 26 08_2019_edited
 
Weekly media update 05.02.2018
Weekly media update 05.02.2018Weekly media update 05.02.2018
Weekly media update 05.02.2018
 
FICCI Voice (October 2015)
FICCI Voice (October 2015)FICCI Voice (October 2015)
FICCI Voice (October 2015)
 
MNI India Consumer Report June 2014
MNI India Consumer Report June 2014MNI India Consumer Report June 2014
MNI India Consumer Report June 2014
 
Weekly media update 08 02_2021
Weekly media update 08 02_2021Weekly media update 08 02_2021
Weekly media update 08 02_2021
 
Weekly media update 08 04_2019
Weekly media update 08 04_2019Weekly media update 08 04_2019
Weekly media update 08 04_2019
 

Viewers also liked

New economic reforms in india
New economic reforms in indiaNew economic reforms in india
New economic reforms in indiaDeepak G
 
REAL ESTATE(REGULATION AND DEVELOPMENT)ACT,2016
REAL ESTATE(REGULATION AND DEVELOPMENT)ACT,2016REAL ESTATE(REGULATION AND DEVELOPMENT)ACT,2016
REAL ESTATE(REGULATION AND DEVELOPMENT)ACT,2016Pawan Pathak
 
RERA | Real Estate Regulatory Act
RERA | Real Estate Regulatory ActRERA | Real Estate Regulatory Act
RERA | Real Estate Regulatory ActUttam Kumar
 
Real Estate (Regulation and Development) Act, 2016
Real Estate (Regulation and Development) Act, 2016Real Estate (Regulation and Development) Act, 2016
Real Estate (Regulation and Development) Act, 2016sandesh mundra
 
Impact of the Real Estate (Regulation and Development) Act, 2016 - Sandeep Jh...
Impact of the Real Estate (Regulation and Development) Act, 2016 - Sandeep Jh...Impact of the Real Estate (Regulation and Development) Act, 2016 - Sandeep Jh...
Impact of the Real Estate (Regulation and Development) Act, 2016 - Sandeep Jh...Sandeep Jhunjhunwala
 
Economic survey 2016 - 17 highlights
Economic survey 2016 - 17 highlightsEconomic survey 2016 - 17 highlights
Economic survey 2016 - 17 highlightsKarthik Ragavan
 
Economic survey of india.ppt
Economic survey of india.pptEconomic survey of india.ppt
Economic survey of india.pptVamshi Raj
 
Presentation on Indian economy
Presentation on Indian economyPresentation on Indian economy
Presentation on Indian economyJags Bhanderi
 

Viewers also liked (12)

TFG PROFILE
TFG PROFILETFG PROFILE
TFG PROFILE
 
New economic reforms in india
New economic reforms in indiaNew economic reforms in india
New economic reforms in india
 
REAL ESTATE(REGULATION AND DEVELOPMENT)ACT,2016
REAL ESTATE(REGULATION AND DEVELOPMENT)ACT,2016REAL ESTATE(REGULATION AND DEVELOPMENT)ACT,2016
REAL ESTATE(REGULATION AND DEVELOPMENT)ACT,2016
 
RERA | Real Estate Regulatory Act
RERA | Real Estate Regulatory ActRERA | Real Estate Regulatory Act
RERA | Real Estate Regulatory Act
 
Real Estate (Regulation and Development) Act, 2016
Real Estate (Regulation and Development) Act, 2016Real Estate (Regulation and Development) Act, 2016
Real Estate (Regulation and Development) Act, 2016
 
India economic-survey-main-findings
India economic-survey-main-findingsIndia economic-survey-main-findings
India economic-survey-main-findings
 
Impact of the Real Estate (Regulation and Development) Act, 2016 - Sandeep Jh...
Impact of the Real Estate (Regulation and Development) Act, 2016 - Sandeep Jh...Impact of the Real Estate (Regulation and Development) Act, 2016 - Sandeep Jh...
Impact of the Real Estate (Regulation and Development) Act, 2016 - Sandeep Jh...
 
Economic survey 2016 - 17 highlights
Economic survey 2016 - 17 highlightsEconomic survey 2016 - 17 highlights
Economic survey 2016 - 17 highlights
 
Economic survey of india.ppt
Economic survey of india.pptEconomic survey of india.ppt
Economic survey of india.ppt
 
Union Budget 2017-18
Union Budget 2017-18Union Budget 2017-18
Union Budget 2017-18
 
Union Budget 2017-18
Union Budget 2017-18Union Budget 2017-18
Union Budget 2017-18
 
Presentation on Indian economy
Presentation on Indian economyPresentation on Indian economy
Presentation on Indian economy
 

Similar to FICCI Economic Outlook Survey Forecasts 6.8% GDP Growth

E-UPDates—A Monthly Statistical Bulletin
E-UPDates—A Monthly Statistical BulletinE-UPDates—A Monthly Statistical Bulletin
E-UPDates—A Monthly Statistical BulletinEcofin Surge
 
India: implementing the reform agenda
India: implementing the reform agendaIndia: implementing the reform agenda
India: implementing the reform agendaQNB Group
 
Economic survey 2017-18
Economic survey 2017-18Economic survey 2017-18
Economic survey 2017-18Pranjal Mehta
 
Media update 13.03.2017
Media update 13.03.2017Media update 13.03.2017
Media update 13.03.2017BalmerLawrie
 
Economic Outlook- Nov'15
Economic Outlook- Nov'15Economic Outlook- Nov'15
Economic Outlook- Nov'15choice broking
 
Economic survey 2017-18
Economic survey 2017-18Economic survey 2017-18
Economic survey 2017-18Kush Goyal
 
Economic survey 17 18 ...
Economic survey 17 18 ...Economic survey 17 18 ...
Economic survey 17 18 ...Kush Goyal
 
Global economic forecasts q3 2017
Global economic forecasts q3 2017Global economic forecasts q3 2017
Global economic forecasts q3 2017Gary Williams
 
Weekly media update 15.05.2017
Weekly media update 15.05.2017Weekly media update 15.05.2017
Weekly media update 15.05.2017BalmerLawrie
 
Economic Survey 2016-17
Economic Survey 2016-17Economic Survey 2016-17
Economic Survey 2016-17EdelmanIndiaPA
 
India Economic Survey 2017 by Edelman India
India Economic Survey 2017 by Edelman IndiaIndia Economic Survey 2017 by Edelman India
India Economic Survey 2017 by Edelman IndiaAklanta Kalita
 
Rong Viet Securities - Investment Strategy Report April 2017
Rong Viet Securities - Investment Strategy Report April 2017Rong Viet Securities - Investment Strategy Report April 2017
Rong Viet Securities - Investment Strategy Report April 2017Thomas Farthofer
 

Similar to FICCI Economic Outlook Survey Forecasts 6.8% GDP Growth (20)

FICCI’s Economic Outlook Survey | May 2016
FICCI’s Economic Outlook Survey | May 2016FICCI’s Economic Outlook Survey | May 2016
FICCI’s Economic Outlook Survey | May 2016
 
FICCI Economic Outlook Survey | November 2017
FICCI Economic Outlook Survey | November 2017 FICCI Economic Outlook Survey | November 2017
FICCI Economic Outlook Survey | November 2017
 
Focus of the Month: Union Budget 2017-18
Focus of the Month: Union Budget 2017-18Focus of the Month: Union Budget 2017-18
Focus of the Month: Union Budget 2017-18
 
Economy Matters December 2017
Economy Matters December 2017Economy Matters December 2017
Economy Matters December 2017
 
Economy Matters October 2017
Economy Matters October 2017Economy Matters October 2017
Economy Matters October 2017
 
Economy Matters January 2018
Economy Matters January 2018Economy Matters January 2018
Economy Matters January 2018
 
FICCI's Voice, May, 2017
FICCI's Voice, May, 2017FICCI's Voice, May, 2017
FICCI's Voice, May, 2017
 
E-UPDates—A Monthly Statistical Bulletin
E-UPDates—A Monthly Statistical BulletinE-UPDates—A Monthly Statistical Bulletin
E-UPDates—A Monthly Statistical Bulletin
 
India: implementing the reform agenda
India: implementing the reform agendaIndia: implementing the reform agenda
India: implementing the reform agenda
 
Economic survey 2017-18
Economic survey 2017-18Economic survey 2017-18
Economic survey 2017-18
 
Economy Matters May 2017
Economy Matters May 2017Economy Matters May 2017
Economy Matters May 2017
 
Media update 13.03.2017
Media update 13.03.2017Media update 13.03.2017
Media update 13.03.2017
 
Economic Outlook- Nov'15
Economic Outlook- Nov'15Economic Outlook- Nov'15
Economic Outlook- Nov'15
 
Economic survey 2017-18
Economic survey 2017-18Economic survey 2017-18
Economic survey 2017-18
 
Economic survey 17 18 ...
Economic survey 17 18 ...Economic survey 17 18 ...
Economic survey 17 18 ...
 
Global economic forecasts q3 2017
Global economic forecasts q3 2017Global economic forecasts q3 2017
Global economic forecasts q3 2017
 
Weekly media update 15.05.2017
Weekly media update 15.05.2017Weekly media update 15.05.2017
Weekly media update 15.05.2017
 
Economic Survey 2016-17
Economic Survey 2016-17Economic Survey 2016-17
Economic Survey 2016-17
 
India Economic Survey 2017 by Edelman India
India Economic Survey 2017 by Edelman IndiaIndia Economic Survey 2017 by Edelman India
India Economic Survey 2017 by Edelman India
 
Rong Viet Securities - Investment Strategy Report April 2017
Rong Viet Securities - Investment Strategy Report April 2017Rong Viet Securities - Investment Strategy Report April 2017
Rong Viet Securities - Investment Strategy Report April 2017
 

More from Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce & Industry (FICCI)

More from Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce & Industry (FICCI) (20)

ANNUAL FIBAC PRODUCTIVITY REPORT ON INDIAN BANKING INDUSTRY, 2018
ANNUAL FIBAC PRODUCTIVITY REPORT ON INDIAN BANKING INDUSTRY, 2018ANNUAL FIBAC PRODUCTIVITY REPORT ON INDIAN BANKING INDUSTRY, 2018
ANNUAL FIBAC PRODUCTIVITY REPORT ON INDIAN BANKING INDUSTRY, 2018
 
FICCI | "One Year of GST" Survey 2018
FICCI | "One Year of GST" Survey 2018FICCI | "One Year of GST" Survey 2018
FICCI | "One Year of GST" Survey 2018
 
Opportunities and Financing Outlook for Aviation sector
Opportunities and Financing Outlook for Aviation sectorOpportunities and Financing Outlook for Aviation sector
Opportunities and Financing Outlook for Aviation sector
 
Sustainable Development Goals - Linkages with corporate actions in India
Sustainable Development Goals - Linkages with corporate actions in IndiaSustainable Development Goals - Linkages with corporate actions in India
Sustainable Development Goals - Linkages with corporate actions in India
 
FICCI-Avalon Non-ferrous Metals industry report 2018
FICCI-Avalon Non-ferrous Metals industry report 2018FICCI-Avalon Non-ferrous Metals industry report 2018
FICCI-Avalon Non-ferrous Metals industry report 2018
 
Industry Survey Report on GST
Industry Survey Report on GST Industry Survey Report on GST
Industry Survey Report on GST
 
Medical Device Conference 2018: CEO Speak
Medical Device Conference 2018: CEO SpeakMedical Device Conference 2018: CEO Speak
Medical Device Conference 2018: CEO Speak
 
Trends & Opportunities for Indian Pharma
Trends & Opportunities for Indian PharmaTrends & Opportunities for Indian Pharma
Trends & Opportunities for Indian Pharma
 
FICCI IBA Bankers' Survey
FICCI IBA Bankers' Survey FICCI IBA Bankers' Survey
FICCI IBA Bankers' Survey
 
FICCI's Voice (December 2017)
FICCI's Voice (December 2017)FICCI's Voice (December 2017)
FICCI's Voice (December 2017)
 
FICCI Manufacturing Survey Report - July 2017
FICCI Manufacturing Survey Report -  July 2017FICCI Manufacturing Survey Report -  July 2017
FICCI Manufacturing Survey Report - July 2017
 
FICCI IBA Bankers Survey Report | July - December 2016
FICCI IBA Bankers Survey Report | July - December 2016FICCI IBA Bankers Survey Report | July - December 2016
FICCI IBA Bankers Survey Report | July - December 2016
 
FICCI Business Confidence Survey | October 2016
FICCI Business Confidence Survey | October 2016FICCI Business Confidence Survey | October 2016
FICCI Business Confidence Survey | October 2016
 
FICCI's Voice
FICCI's VoiceFICCI's Voice
FICCI's Voice
 
FICCI Voice
FICCI VoiceFICCI Voice
FICCI Voice
 
Brexit – views and suggestions from india inc
Brexit – views and suggestions from india incBrexit – views and suggestions from india inc
Brexit – views and suggestions from india inc
 
FICCI India Risk Survey 2016
FICCI India Risk Survey 2016 FICCI India Risk Survey 2016
FICCI India Risk Survey 2016
 
FICCI Recommendations: Geospatial Information Regulation Bill
FICCI Recommendations: Geospatial Information Regulation BillFICCI Recommendations: Geospatial Information Regulation Bill
FICCI Recommendations: Geospatial Information Regulation Bill
 
Role of Corporate in Road Safety
Role of Corporate in Road Safety Role of Corporate in Road Safety
Role of Corporate in Road Safety
 
FICCI Perception Survey on India ASEAN Economic Relations
FICCI Perception Survey on India ASEAN Economic RelationsFICCI Perception Survey on India ASEAN Economic Relations
FICCI Perception Survey on India ASEAN Economic Relations
 

Recently uploaded

Call Girls In DLf Gurgaon ➥99902@11544 ( Best price)100% Genuine Escort In 24...
Call Girls In DLf Gurgaon ➥99902@11544 ( Best price)100% Genuine Escort In 24...Call Girls In DLf Gurgaon ➥99902@11544 ( Best price)100% Genuine Escort In 24...
Call Girls In DLf Gurgaon ➥99902@11544 ( Best price)100% Genuine Escort In 24...lizamodels9
 
7.pdf This presentation captures many uses and the significance of the number...
7.pdf This presentation captures many uses and the significance of the number...7.pdf This presentation captures many uses and the significance of the number...
7.pdf This presentation captures many uses and the significance of the number...Paul Menig
 
MONA 98765-12871 CALL GIRLS IN LUDHIANA LUDHIANA CALL GIRL
MONA 98765-12871 CALL GIRLS IN LUDHIANA LUDHIANA CALL GIRLMONA 98765-12871 CALL GIRLS IN LUDHIANA LUDHIANA CALL GIRL
MONA 98765-12871 CALL GIRLS IN LUDHIANA LUDHIANA CALL GIRLSeo
 
DEPED Work From Home WORKWEEK-PLAN.docx
DEPED Work From Home  WORKWEEK-PLAN.docxDEPED Work From Home  WORKWEEK-PLAN.docx
DEPED Work From Home WORKWEEK-PLAN.docxRodelinaLaud
 
It will be International Nurses' Day on 12 May
It will be International Nurses' Day on 12 MayIt will be International Nurses' Day on 12 May
It will be International Nurses' Day on 12 MayNZSG
 
Catalogue ONG NƯỚC uPVC - HDPE DE NHAT.pdf
Catalogue ONG NƯỚC uPVC - HDPE DE NHAT.pdfCatalogue ONG NƯỚC uPVC - HDPE DE NHAT.pdf
Catalogue ONG NƯỚC uPVC - HDPE DE NHAT.pdfOrient Homes
 
Ensure the security of your HCL environment by applying the Zero Trust princi...
Ensure the security of your HCL environment by applying the Zero Trust princi...Ensure the security of your HCL environment by applying the Zero Trust princi...
Ensure the security of your HCL environment by applying the Zero Trust princi...Roland Driesen
 
Grateful 7 speech thanking everyone that has helped.pdf
Grateful 7 speech thanking everyone that has helped.pdfGrateful 7 speech thanking everyone that has helped.pdf
Grateful 7 speech thanking everyone that has helped.pdfPaul Menig
 
Monte Carlo simulation : Simulation using MCSM
Monte Carlo simulation : Simulation using MCSMMonte Carlo simulation : Simulation using MCSM
Monte Carlo simulation : Simulation using MCSMRavindra Nath Shukla
 
Vip Dewas Call Girls #9907093804 Contact Number Escorts Service Dewas
Vip Dewas Call Girls #9907093804 Contact Number Escorts Service DewasVip Dewas Call Girls #9907093804 Contact Number Escorts Service Dewas
Vip Dewas Call Girls #9907093804 Contact Number Escorts Service Dewasmakika9823
 
Lucknow 💋 Escorts in Lucknow - 450+ Call Girl Cash Payment 8923113531 Neha Th...
Lucknow 💋 Escorts in Lucknow - 450+ Call Girl Cash Payment 8923113531 Neha Th...Lucknow 💋 Escorts in Lucknow - 450+ Call Girl Cash Payment 8923113531 Neha Th...
Lucknow 💋 Escorts in Lucknow - 450+ Call Girl Cash Payment 8923113531 Neha Th...anilsa9823
 
M.C Lodges -- Guest House in Jhang.
M.C Lodges --  Guest House in Jhang.M.C Lodges --  Guest House in Jhang.
M.C Lodges -- Guest House in Jhang.Aaiza Hassan
 
Yaroslav Rozhankivskyy: Три складові і три передумови максимальної продуктивн...
Yaroslav Rozhankivskyy: Три складові і три передумови максимальної продуктивн...Yaroslav Rozhankivskyy: Три складові і три передумови максимальної продуктивн...
Yaroslav Rozhankivskyy: Три складові і три передумови максимальної продуктивн...Lviv Startup Club
 
Socio-economic-Impact-of-business-consumers-suppliers-and.pptx
Socio-economic-Impact-of-business-consumers-suppliers-and.pptxSocio-economic-Impact-of-business-consumers-suppliers-and.pptx
Socio-economic-Impact-of-business-consumers-suppliers-and.pptxtrishalcan8
 
Progress Report - Oracle Database Analyst Summit
Progress  Report - Oracle Database Analyst SummitProgress  Report - Oracle Database Analyst Summit
Progress Report - Oracle Database Analyst SummitHolger Mueller
 
Call Girls Pune Just Call 9907093804 Top Class Call Girl Service Available
Call Girls Pune Just Call 9907093804 Top Class Call Girl Service AvailableCall Girls Pune Just Call 9907093804 Top Class Call Girl Service Available
Call Girls Pune Just Call 9907093804 Top Class Call Girl Service AvailableDipal Arora
 
Call Girls In Panjim North Goa 9971646499 Genuine Service
Call Girls In Panjim North Goa 9971646499 Genuine ServiceCall Girls In Panjim North Goa 9971646499 Genuine Service
Call Girls In Panjim North Goa 9971646499 Genuine Serviceritikaroy0888
 
Regression analysis: Simple Linear Regression Multiple Linear Regression
Regression analysis:  Simple Linear Regression Multiple Linear RegressionRegression analysis:  Simple Linear Regression Multiple Linear Regression
Regression analysis: Simple Linear Regression Multiple Linear RegressionRavindra Nath Shukla
 
Tech Startup Growth Hacking 101 - Basics on Growth Marketing
Tech Startup Growth Hacking 101  - Basics on Growth MarketingTech Startup Growth Hacking 101  - Basics on Growth Marketing
Tech Startup Growth Hacking 101 - Basics on Growth MarketingShawn Pang
 

Recently uploaded (20)

Call Girls In DLf Gurgaon ➥99902@11544 ( Best price)100% Genuine Escort In 24...
Call Girls In DLf Gurgaon ➥99902@11544 ( Best price)100% Genuine Escort In 24...Call Girls In DLf Gurgaon ➥99902@11544 ( Best price)100% Genuine Escort In 24...
Call Girls In DLf Gurgaon ➥99902@11544 ( Best price)100% Genuine Escort In 24...
 
7.pdf This presentation captures many uses and the significance of the number...
7.pdf This presentation captures many uses and the significance of the number...7.pdf This presentation captures many uses and the significance of the number...
7.pdf This presentation captures many uses and the significance of the number...
 
MONA 98765-12871 CALL GIRLS IN LUDHIANA LUDHIANA CALL GIRL
MONA 98765-12871 CALL GIRLS IN LUDHIANA LUDHIANA CALL GIRLMONA 98765-12871 CALL GIRLS IN LUDHIANA LUDHIANA CALL GIRL
MONA 98765-12871 CALL GIRLS IN LUDHIANA LUDHIANA CALL GIRL
 
DEPED Work From Home WORKWEEK-PLAN.docx
DEPED Work From Home  WORKWEEK-PLAN.docxDEPED Work From Home  WORKWEEK-PLAN.docx
DEPED Work From Home WORKWEEK-PLAN.docx
 
It will be International Nurses' Day on 12 May
It will be International Nurses' Day on 12 MayIt will be International Nurses' Day on 12 May
It will be International Nurses' Day on 12 May
 
KestrelPro Flyer Japan IT Week 2024 (English)
KestrelPro Flyer Japan IT Week 2024 (English)KestrelPro Flyer Japan IT Week 2024 (English)
KestrelPro Flyer Japan IT Week 2024 (English)
 
Catalogue ONG NƯỚC uPVC - HDPE DE NHAT.pdf
Catalogue ONG NƯỚC uPVC - HDPE DE NHAT.pdfCatalogue ONG NƯỚC uPVC - HDPE DE NHAT.pdf
Catalogue ONG NƯỚC uPVC - HDPE DE NHAT.pdf
 
Ensure the security of your HCL environment by applying the Zero Trust princi...
Ensure the security of your HCL environment by applying the Zero Trust princi...Ensure the security of your HCL environment by applying the Zero Trust princi...
Ensure the security of your HCL environment by applying the Zero Trust princi...
 
Grateful 7 speech thanking everyone that has helped.pdf
Grateful 7 speech thanking everyone that has helped.pdfGrateful 7 speech thanking everyone that has helped.pdf
Grateful 7 speech thanking everyone that has helped.pdf
 
Monte Carlo simulation : Simulation using MCSM
Monte Carlo simulation : Simulation using MCSMMonte Carlo simulation : Simulation using MCSM
Monte Carlo simulation : Simulation using MCSM
 
Vip Dewas Call Girls #9907093804 Contact Number Escorts Service Dewas
Vip Dewas Call Girls #9907093804 Contact Number Escorts Service DewasVip Dewas Call Girls #9907093804 Contact Number Escorts Service Dewas
Vip Dewas Call Girls #9907093804 Contact Number Escorts Service Dewas
 
Lucknow 💋 Escorts in Lucknow - 450+ Call Girl Cash Payment 8923113531 Neha Th...
Lucknow 💋 Escorts in Lucknow - 450+ Call Girl Cash Payment 8923113531 Neha Th...Lucknow 💋 Escorts in Lucknow - 450+ Call Girl Cash Payment 8923113531 Neha Th...
Lucknow 💋 Escorts in Lucknow - 450+ Call Girl Cash Payment 8923113531 Neha Th...
 
M.C Lodges -- Guest House in Jhang.
M.C Lodges --  Guest House in Jhang.M.C Lodges --  Guest House in Jhang.
M.C Lodges -- Guest House in Jhang.
 
Yaroslav Rozhankivskyy: Три складові і три передумови максимальної продуктивн...
Yaroslav Rozhankivskyy: Три складові і три передумови максимальної продуктивн...Yaroslav Rozhankivskyy: Три складові і три передумови максимальної продуктивн...
Yaroslav Rozhankivskyy: Три складові і три передумови максимальної продуктивн...
 
Socio-economic-Impact-of-business-consumers-suppliers-and.pptx
Socio-economic-Impact-of-business-consumers-suppliers-and.pptxSocio-economic-Impact-of-business-consumers-suppliers-and.pptx
Socio-economic-Impact-of-business-consumers-suppliers-and.pptx
 
Progress Report - Oracle Database Analyst Summit
Progress  Report - Oracle Database Analyst SummitProgress  Report - Oracle Database Analyst Summit
Progress Report - Oracle Database Analyst Summit
 
Call Girls Pune Just Call 9907093804 Top Class Call Girl Service Available
Call Girls Pune Just Call 9907093804 Top Class Call Girl Service AvailableCall Girls Pune Just Call 9907093804 Top Class Call Girl Service Available
Call Girls Pune Just Call 9907093804 Top Class Call Girl Service Available
 
Call Girls In Panjim North Goa 9971646499 Genuine Service
Call Girls In Panjim North Goa 9971646499 Genuine ServiceCall Girls In Panjim North Goa 9971646499 Genuine Service
Call Girls In Panjim North Goa 9971646499 Genuine Service
 
Regression analysis: Simple Linear Regression Multiple Linear Regression
Regression analysis:  Simple Linear Regression Multiple Linear RegressionRegression analysis:  Simple Linear Regression Multiple Linear Regression
Regression analysis: Simple Linear Regression Multiple Linear Regression
 
Tech Startup Growth Hacking 101 - Basics on Growth Marketing
Tech Startup Growth Hacking 101  - Basics on Growth MarketingTech Startup Growth Hacking 101  - Basics on Growth Marketing
Tech Startup Growth Hacking 101 - Basics on Growth Marketing
 

FICCI Economic Outlook Survey Forecasts 6.8% GDP Growth

  • 2. Economic Outlook Survey GDP growth estimated at 6.8% in 2016-17: FICCI’s Economic Outlook Survey HIGHLIGHTS GDP growth for FY 17 estimated at 6.8% The latest round of FICCI’s Economic Outlook Survey puts forth an annual median GDP growth forecast of 6.8% for 2016-17. This is 0.5 percentage points lower than the estimate of 7.3% put across in the last round. The survey was conducted in the months of December 2016/ January 2017 and drew responses from leading economists representing industry, banking and financial services sector. Median Estimates Economic Outlook Survey: 2016-17 CSO estimates Growth (in %) Present Round Last Round GDP@ market prices 6.8 7.3 7.1 GVA@ basic prices 6.7 7.5 7.0 Agriculture & Allied activities 3.2 3.1 4.1 Industry 5.7 7.1 5.2 Services 8.5 9.1 8.8 The Central Statistical Organization had estimated a GDP growth of 7.1% for 2016-17 earlier in January this year. According to the survey results, agriculture sector is expected to witness an uptick in the fiscal year 2016-17. The monsoons have been good which is expected to support agricultural production. However, both industry and services sectors are anticipated to moderate. Industry and services sector are expected to grow by 5.7% and 8.5% respectively in 2016-17. The decision of the Government to demonetize high value currency notes has had an impact on the cash dependent sectors primarily belonging to the informal economy. This is expected to cause some slowdown in industrial and services sector growth. Retail trade, hospitality, tourism, gems and jewellery have reported a dip in business. Even sectors like automobiles and consumer goods have seen a drop in demand especially in rural areas. However, once the re-monetization phase is complete and currency is back in circulation, GDP growth would see a recovery. Quarter 3 and Quarter 4 FY 17 GDP growth Median Estimates Economic Outlook Survey Growth (in %) Q3 2016-17 Q4 2016-17 GDP@ market prices 6.8 6.7 GVA@ basic prices 6.7 6.7 Agriculture & Allied activities 2.9 2.9 Industry 5.3 5.6 Services 7.7 7.8 IIP growth @1.5% in 2016-17 The median growth forecast for IIP has been put at 1.5% for the year 2016-17, with a minimum and maximum range of (-) 2.1% and 2.9% respectively. This is marginally lower than the estimate of 1.7% put across in the last survey round. Inflation to remain benign The median forecast for Wholesale Price Index based inflation rate for 2016-17 has been put at 3.4%, with a minimum and maximum range of 3.1% and 3.5% respectively. WPI inflation is projected at 3.8% for the fourth quarter of 2016-17. Consumer Price Index has a median forecast of 4.7% for 2016-17, with a minimum and maximum range of 3.8% and 5.1% respectively. CPI forecast for Q4 2016-17 was put at 4.2% according to our survey results.
  • 3. Economic Outlook Survey Fiscal Deficit to GDP ratio for 2016-17 to be in line with Government’s indicative trajectory Repo Rate VIEWS OF ECONOMISTS Views on remonetization and the course of economic recovery On November 8, 2016, the Government decided to demonetize high denomination currency notes in order to unearth black money and counterfeit currency. The economy has been impacted temporarily, however the process of remonetisation is underway and is gradually gaining momentum. Given this backdrop, economists were asked to share their prognosis on the likely course of economic recovery. The economists had a divided view on the time frame by which the economy would return to normalcy. Although some believed that things will start rolling back to the way they were in the pre- demonetization days by the end of the current quarter (March 2017), others felt that it could take at least two more quarters for things to fully settle (June 2017). Economists pointed out that India’s economic growth was being propelled by government spending and private consumption and the latter has been hit due to the demonetization move. This will affect recovery in investments and overall growth. Economists felt that the government will continue the focus on additional spending especially in infrastructure projects to give a push to the economy. Nonetheless, the regulatory bodies have been taking steps to put the economy back on track. The process of remonetisation has started and the RBI and government has taken several measures such as speedy recalibration of ATMs, acceleration in the pace of printing new notes, increase cash withdrawal limits etc. to pump cash into the system. The Government is also on the course of improving the electronic payments infrastructure to move the country to a less cash economy. The road to remonetisation, thus, will be paved with less dependency on cash and greater focus on digital transactions. This will not only make payments more transparent and consequently boost government’s revenue, but will prove to be a boon for the Indian economy in the medium to long run. With regard to digitization, economists felt that the transition from cash to digital payments will be harder in the rural areas. It was suggested that instead of promoting plastic currency, the Aadhar enabled payment system would facilitate a smooth transition in the rural areas. In addition, the participating economists opined that the demonetization exercise would lead to a healthy correction in many sectors of the economy, especially in the real estate segment. 3.7 4.2 4.7 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 Q3 FY17 Q4 FY17 FY17 CPI Growth Forecast ( %) 4.8 4.4 4.0 3.9 3.5 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 Fiscal deficit as a % of GDP Repo Rate End of 2016-17 6.25%
  • 4. Economic Outlook Survey Assessment of the forthcoming monetary policy Economists were also asked to share their assessment about the bi-monthly monetary policy to be announced in the first week of February 2017. A majority of the respondents expected the Reserve Bank of India to maintain status quo with regard to repo rate on account of domestic and global factors. The economists felt that the forthcoming Union Budget 2017-18 is likely to be expansionary and some fiscal stimulus is on the way from Government’s side. It was opined that the Reserve Bank would like to take a detailed account of the stimulus and the borrowing targets before taking a decision to cut the repo rate. Also, upside risks to inflation remain as the global commodity prices are firming up. The central bank would continue to closely watch the inflation level. Further, some major banks have recently revised down their lending rate which has given room to the Reserve Bank to undertake a halt. On the global front, policy stance of developed nations such as the United States will be critical. However, economists anticipate the accommodative stance to continue with a probable rate cut of 25 bps in first half of the financial year 2017-18. Expectations from the Union Budget 2017-18 The forthcoming Union Budget will be a budget of many firsts and assumes greater significance in light of the demonetization move of the Government. In fact, 2016 has been a year of some exceptional events – both on the global and domestic fronts. Amidst an environment of persisting uncertainty, it will be important for India to keep the focus on strengthening the domestic economy. The participating economists were asked to share their top five expectations from the Union Budget 2017-18. The respondents unanimously felt that the budget should revamp the income tax slabs for both individuals and corporates. This will help lend some support to the consumer spending which has been hit post demonetisation. Also, allocations towards agriculture in form of increased expenditure on irrigation and higher spend on MNREGA are seen, which will give a thrust to rural demand. A majority of respondents indicated more incentives being announced for promoting digital transactions. It was also suggested that additional benefits should be bestowed upon Fintech companies in a bid to move towards a cashless economy. Respondents also hoped that the budget would look at addressing the impact of demonetisation on the informal sector which is largely cash dependent. It is important to ensure that there are enough incentives for the informal setups to move into the formal system. Government is also expected to continue the focus on infrastructure, MSME, real estate and housing sector. Real estate sector has been displaying a muted performance and has been further affected by demonetisation. The sector is likely to have a mention in the budget and new schemes and policies to revive the real estate sector and the housing segment - especially affordable housing can be on the anvil. Some of the other expectations indicated by the participating economists were - greater infusion of capital in public sector banks and announcement of further measures to strengthen asset quality of the public sector banks. The economists opined that the forthcoming budget would focus on giving an impetus to growth (which is inclusive) and provide fillip to gross fixed capital formation by enhancing complementarities between public and private investment. Steps would also be taken towards reviving and deepening of the corporate bond market. Also, they expect the government to further boost its efforts to increase employment through its flagship programmes such as ‘Make in India’ and ‘Skill India’. Economists also expect the government to unveil incentives to promote exports.
  • 5. Economic Outlook Survey Majority of the economists also believed that guidelines will be laid for the roll out of the Goods and Services Tax. Top Global Trends of 2017 Upsides 1. Fiscal incentives to stimulate consumption demand 2. Pick up in investment demand 3. Higher global growth with US economy expected to pickup 4. Higher trade growth Downside Risks 1. Policy uncertainty in major advanced economies and a sense of protectionist sentiment 2. Rising global commodity prices 3. Tightening of Monetary Policy by Federal Reserve 4. BREXIT and further weakening of Europe 5. Continued economic slowdown in China and other emerging market economies Key upside and downside risks for India Upsides 1. Stable macroeconomic fundamentals – moderate inflation, range bound current account deficit and fiscal deficit 2. Structural reforms such as GST and law on Insolvency & Bankruptcy 3. Shift towards digitization 4. Effective policy reform towards a transparent tax structure 5. Continued government spending on infrastructure investments Downside Risks 1. Weak domestic investments 2. High Non Performing Assets 3. Risk of rising trade deficit owing to higher crude prices 4. Higher capital outflows as interest rate differential between US and India narrow 5. Rupee remaining weak and volatile 6. Impact of demonetisation a) liquidity shortage b) weak consumption demand
  • 6. Economic Outlook Survey Survey Profile The present round of FICCI’s Economic Outlook Survey was conducted in the months of December 2016/ January 2017 and drew responses from leading economists representing industry, banking and financial services sector. The economists were asked to provide forecast for key macro-economic variables for the year 2016-17 as well as for Q3 (September-December) FY17 and Q4 (January- March) FY17. In addition, economists were asked to share their views on certain contemporary subjects. Views were sought on the top trends to look out for in the year 2017. Economists were also asked to share the prognosis about economy post demonetization and their expectations from the forthcoming Union Budget. The participants were also asked to give their assessment of the forthcoming monetary policy. Survey Results: Part A Projections – Key Economic Parameters National Accounts GDP growth at 2011-12 prices Annual (2016-17) Q3 2016-17 Q4 2016-17 Growth (in %) Median Min Max Median Min Max Median Min Max GDP@ market prices 6.8 6.6 7.1 6.8 5.5 7.0 6.7 6.2 7.0 GVA@ basic prices 6.7 6.5 7.1 6.7 5.9 7.0 6.7 5.9 7.1 Agriculture & Allied activities 3.2 2.4 4.1 2.9 2.2 4.0 2.9 2.5 3.8 Industry 5.7 4.8 6.9 5.3 4.0 6.9 5.6 4.4 7.1 Services 8.5 7.8 9.3 7.7 7.0 9.0 7.8 7.4 9.2 The latest round of FICCI’s Economic Outlook Survey puts forth an annual median GDP growth forecast of 6.8% for 2016-17. This is 0.5 percentage points lower than the estimate of 7.3% put across in the last round. The median growth forecast for agriculture and allied activities has been put at 3.2% for 2016-17, with a minimum and maximum growth estimate of 2.4% and 4.1% respectively. Industry and services sector are expected to grow by 5.7% and 8.5% respectively in 2016-17. The quarterly median forecasts indicate a GDP growth of 6.8% in Q3 2016-17 and 6.7% in Q4 2016-17. The ratio of Gross Fixed Capital Formation to GDP for 2016-17 has been estimated at 29.1%. The median growth prediction for Q4 2016-17 is put at 27.2%.27.4 27.2 29.1 26.0 26.5 27.0 27.5 28.0 28.5 29.0 29.5 Q3 FY17 Q4 FY17 FY17 GrossFixed Capital Formationas % of GDPMP(in %)
  • 7. Economic Outlook Survey Index of Industrial Production (IIP) Wholesale Price Index (WPI) & Consumer Price Index (CPI) Fiscal Deficit The median growth forecast for IIP was put at 1.5% for 2016-17 by the participating economists, with a minimum and maximum range of (-) 2.1% and 2.9% respectively. Although industrial production has remained weak for most part of 2016, the latest IIP data reported improvement in growth. The index grew by 5.7% in the month of November 2016 vis-à-vis (-) 1.8% growth in October 2016. Median Wholesale Price Index based inflation rate is projected at 3.4% in 2016-17, with a minimum and maximum range of 3.1% and 3.5% respectively. The latest actual data on WPI puts across an inflation rate of 3.4% for the month of December 2016, with inflation in the third quarter of 2016-17 at 3.4%. According to the survey results, the WPI inflation is projected at 3.8% for the fourth quarter of 2016-17. Consumer Price Index has a median forecast of 4.7% for 2016-17, with a minimum and maximum range of 3.8% and 5.1% respectively. CPI forecast for Q4 2016-17 was put at 4.2% according to our survey results. The median fiscal deficit to GDP ratio was put at 3.5% for the fiscal year 2016-17 with a minimum and maximum range of 3.5% and 3.6% respectively. 1.9 1.8 1.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 Q3 FY17 Q4 FY17 FY17 IIP Growth Forecast (in %) 3.4 3.8 3.4 3.2 3.4 3.6 3.8 4.0 Q3 FY17 Q4 FY17 FY17 WPI Growth Forecast ( %) 3.7 4.2 4.7 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 Q3 FY17 Q4 FY17 FY17 CPI GrowthForecast ( %) 4.8 4.4 4.0 3.9 3.5 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 Fiscal deficit as a % of GDP
  • 8. Economic Outlook Survey Money and Banking External Sector 2016-17 Exports Imports USD billion 268.2 380.2 Growth (in %) 2.2 -2.5 Repo Rate End of 2016-17 6.25% Growth in exports has picked up and has remained in the positive zone for four consecutive months ending December 2016. However going forward, weak external demand and inward looking policies by major economies can pose a risk. Based on the responses of the participating economists, the median growth forecast for exports has been put at 2.2% for fiscal year 2016-17 and for imports at (-) 2.5%. 6.0 6.3 7.8 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 Q3 FY17 Q4 FY17 FY17 Bank Credit:Growth(in %) 67.8 68.0 68.0 67.6 67.7 67.7 67.8 67.8 67.9 67.9 68.0 68.0 68.1 Q3 FY17 Q4 FY17 FY17 USD/INRExchangeRate - End period CAD as % of GDP 2016-17 Present Round Last Round 0.7% 0.8%
  • 9. Economic Outlook Survey Survey Results: Part B Views of the Economists VIEWS ON REMONETIZATION AND THE COURSE OF ECONOMIC RECOVERY The Government decision to demonetize high denomination currency notes in order to unearth black money and counterfeit currency has been a historic one. The move led to an immediate squeeze in liquidity and the economy has been impacted temporarily; however the process of remonetisation is underway and is gradually gaining momentum. Given this backdrop, economists were asked to share their prognosis on the likely course of recovery. The economists had a divided view on the time frame by which the economy would return to normalcy. Although some believed that things will start rolling back to the way they were in the pre-demonetization days by the end of the current quarter (March 2017), others felt that it could take at least two more quarters for things to fully settle (June 2017). Economists pointed out that India’s economic growth was being propelled by government spending and private consumption and the latter has been hit due to the demonetization move. This will affect recovery in investments and overall growth. The impact on the informal sector has been significant and is expected to take more time to normalise. Economists felt that the government will continue the focus on additional spending especially in infrastructure projects to give a push to the economy. The regulatory bodies have taking steps to put the economy back on track. The process of remonetisation has started and the RBI and government have taken several measures such as speedy recalibration of ATMs, accelerating the pace of printing new notes, increase cash withdrawal limits etc. to pump cash into the system. The Government is also on the course of improving the electronic payments infrastructure to move the country to a less cash economy. The road to remonetisation, thus, will be paved with less dependency on cash and greater focus on digital transactions. This will not only make payments more transparent and consequently boost government revenue, but will prove to be a boon for the Indian economy in the medium to long run. With regard to digitization, economists felt that the transition from cash to digital payments will be harder in the rural areas. It was suggested that instead of promoting plastic currency, the Aadhar enabled payment system would facilitate a smooth transition in the rural areas. In addition, the participating economists opined that the demonetization exercise would lead to a healthy correction in many sectors of the economy, especially in the real estate segment. ASSESSMENT OF THE FORTHCOMING MONETARY POLICY Economists were also asked to share their assessment about bi-monthly monetary policy to be announced in the first week of February 2017. A majority of the respondents expected the Reserve Bank of India to maintain status quo with regard to repo rate on account of domestic and global factors. The economists felt that the forthcoming Union Budget 2017-18 is likely to be expansionary and some fiscal stimulus is on the way from Government’s side. It was opined that the Reserve Bank would like to take a detailed account of the stimulus and the borrowing targets before taking a decision to cut the repo rate.
  • 10. Economic Outlook Survey Also, upside risks to inflation remain as the global commodity prices are firming up. The central bank would continue to closely watch the inflation level, both overall as well as core inflation, alongside focusing on growth considerations. This stance has also been indicated in its previous policy report. Further, some major banks have recently revised down their lending rate which has given some room to the Reserve Bank to undertake a halt. On the global front, policy stance of developed nations such as the United States will be critical. The prevailing global economic conditions and volatility in the financial markets are also expected to act as deterrents. However, economists anticipate the accommodative stance to continue with a probable rate cut of 25 bps in first half of the financial year 2017-18. EXPECTATIONS FROM THE UNION BUDGET 2017-18 The forthcoming Union Budget will be a budget of many firsts and assumes greater significance in light of the demonetization move of the Government. In fact, 2016 has been a year of some exceptional events – both on global and domestic fronts. Amidst an environment of persisting uncertainty, it will be important for India to keep the focus on strengthening the domestic economy. The participating economists were asked to share their top five expectations from the Union Budget 2017-18. The respondents unanimously felt that the budget should revamp the income tax slabs for both individuals as well as corporates. This will help lend some support to the consumer spending which has been hit post demonetisation. Also, allocations towards agriculture in form of increased expenditure on irrigation and higher spend on MNREGA are seen, which will give a thrust to rural demand. A majority of respondents indicated more incentives being announced for promoting digital transactions. It was also suggested that additional benefits should be bestowed upon Fintech companies in a bid to move towards a cashless economy. Respondents also hoped that the budget would look at addressing the impact of demonetisation on the informal sector which is largely cash dependent. It is important to ensure that there are enough incentives for the informal setups to move into the formal system. Government is also expected to continue the focus on infrastructure, MSME, real estate and housing sector. Real estate sector has been affected by demonetisation and has been displaying a muted performance. The sector is likely to have a mention in the budget and new schemes and policies to revive the real estate sector and the housing segment - especially affordable housing can be on the anvil. Some of the other expectations indicated by the participating economists were - greater infusion of capital in public sector banks and announcement of further measures to strengthen asset quality of the public sector banks. The economists opined that the forthcoming budget would focus on giving an impetus to growth (which is inclusive) and provide fillip to gross fixed capital formation by enhancing complementarities between public and private investment. Steps would be taken towards reviving and deepening of the corporate bond market and a time frame for disposal of SARFAESI cases will be indicated. Also, they expect the government to further boost its efforts to increase employment through its flagship programmes such as ‘Make in India’ and ‘Skill India’. Economists also expect the government to unveil incentives to promote exports.
  • 11. Economic Outlook Survey Majority of the economists also believed that guidelines will be laid for the roll out of the Goods and Services Tax. TOP GLOBAL TRENDS OF 2017 KEY UPSIDE AND DOWNSIDE RISKS FOR INDIA 1. Fiscal incentives to stimulate consumption demand 2. Pick up in investment demand 3. Higher global growth with US economy expected to pickup 4. Higher trade growth 1. Policy uncertainty in major advanced economies and a sense of protectionist sentiment 2. Rising global commodity prices 3. Tightening of Monetary Policy by Federal Reserve 4. BREXIT and further weakening of Europe 5. Continued economic slowdown in China and other emerging market economies 6. Sluggish global trade 1. Stable macroeconomic fundamentals – moderate inflation, range bound current account deficit and fiscal deficit 2. Structural reforms such as GST and law on Insolvency & Bankruptcy 3. Shift towards digitization 4. Effective policy reform towards a transparent tax structure 5. Additional government spending on infrastructure investments 1. Weak domestic investments 2. High Non Performing Assets 3. Risk of rising trade deficit owing to higher crude prices 4. Higher capital outflows as interest rate differential between US and India narrow 5. Rupee remaining weak and volatile 6. Impact of demonetisation a) liquidity shortage b) weak consumption demand
  • 12. Economic Outlook Survey Appendix Outlook 2016-17 Outlook Q3 2016-17 Outlook Q4 2016-17 Key Macroeconomic Variables Mean Median Min Max Mean Median Min Max Mean Median Min Max GDP growth rate at market prices (%) 6.8 6.8 6.6 7.1 6.4 6.8 5.5 7.0 6.6 6.7 6.2 7.0 GVA growth rate at basic prices (%) 6.8 6.7 6.5 7.1 6.5 6.7 5.9 7.0 6.6 6.7 5.9 7.1 Agriculture & Allied 3.2 3.2 2.4 4.1 3.0 2.9 2.2 4.0 3.0 2.9 2.5 3.8 Industry 5.8 5.7 4.8 6.9 5.4 5.3 4.0 6.9 5.7 5.6 4.4 7.1 Services 8.5 8.5 7.8 9.3 7.9 7.7 7.0 9.0 8.1 7.8 7.4 9.2 Gross Domestic Savings (% of GDP at market prices) 30.6 30.5 29.0 32.3 30.1 31.0 27.9 31.3 30.2 31.5 27.5 31.5 Gross Fixed Capital Formation (% of GDP at market prices) 29.8 29.1 26.6 35.8 28.2 27.4 25.7 32.2 28.1 27.2 25.3 32.5 Fiscal Deficit (as % to GDP) Centre 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.6 - - - - - - - - Growth in IIP (%) 1.0 1.5 -2.1 2.9 2.2 1.9 -0.7 5.7 2.5 1.8 0.3 5.9 WPI Inflation rate (%) 3.4 3.4 3.1 3.5 3.4 3.4 3.1 3.5 4.1 3.8 3.4 4.8 CPI combined new inflation rate (%) 4.5 4.7 3.8 5.1 3.8 3.7 3.4 4.4 4.2 4.2 3.7 4.8 Money supply growth M3 (%) (end period) 11.5 11.4 11.2 12.0 9.6 10.1 6.5 11.9 11.9 12.0 11.2 12.5 Bank credit growth (%) 8.1 7.8 5.5 11.0 6.2 6.0 5.1 8.1 7.2 6.3 5.7 10.0
  • 13. Economic Outlook Survey Repo Rate (end period) - 6.25 6.00 6.25 - - - - - - - - Merchandise Export Value in USD billion 266.9 268.2 260.0 270.5 66.3 67.1 63.0 67.9 68.6 69.7 65.0 70.0 Growth (%) 2.5 2.2 -0.5 6.5 2.4 3.3 -3.1 6.6 3.1 3.6 -2.8 7.9 Merchandise Import Value in USD billion 374.8 380.2 364.0 383.4 99.8 101.0 95.0 102.4 98.5 97.9 92.0 106.0 Growth (%) -1.5 -2.5 -4.1 3.5 2.0 2.0 -2.1 6.1 10.1 5.8 -2.5 27.1 Trade Balance (% to GDP) -4.8 -4.9 -6.0 -4.0 -4.4 -4.5 -4.0 -4.8 -4.9 -4.9 -4.2 -5.6 CAB as % of GDP at current price -0.8 -0.7 -0.1 -2.0 -0.7 -0.8 -1.0 -0.2 -0.5 -0.3 -0.1 -1.1 US$ / INR exchange rate (end period) 68.1 68.0 67.0 69.3 67.7 67.8 67.2 68.2 68.1 68.0 67.0 69.3
  • 14. Economic Outlook Survey Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry Federation House Tansen Marg, New Delhi 110001 Follow us on Disclaimer: All views in this report are those of the participating economists.