How CBO Forecasts Inflation
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Presentation by Bob Arnold, Unit Chief of CBO's Macroeconomic Analysis Division, to the Society of Actuaries.
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The document discusses various measures of inflation and cost of living. The consumer price index (CPI) measures the cost of typical household purchases and is used to track inflation. However, the CPI has limitations and may overstate inflation by about 1% annually due to substitution effects, new products, and unmeasured quality changes. The GDP deflator similarly measures price changes but for all goods and services produced rather than consumed. Price indexes are necessary to correct dollar amounts for inflation when making comparisons over time or calculating real interest rates.
24
The document discusses various measures of inflation and cost of living. The consumer price index (CPI) measures the cost of typical household purchases and is used to track inflation. However, the CPI has limitations and may overstate inflation by about 1% annually due to substitution effects, new products, and unmeasured quality changes. The GDP deflator similarly measures price changes but for all goods and services produced rather than consumed. Price indexes are necessary to correct dollar amounts for inflation when making comparisons over time or calculating real interest rates.
CBO’s Economic Forecasting Record: 2019 Update
1. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) prepares annual economic forecasts that underlie its federal budget projections, including key variables like output growth, unemployment, inflation, interest rates, and wages.
2. CBO evaluates the accuracy of its economic forecasts every two years. Its measures include mean error to assess bias, root mean square error to measure accuracy, and two-thirds spread to illustrate typical error ranges.
3. CBO's forecasts tend to be slightly more accurate and less biased than the Administration's, and on par with the Blue Chip consensus forecasts. Major sources of forecast errors include turning points in recessions, shifts in productivity trends, changes in oil prices, and persistent declines in interest rates.
Inflation - How it's measured
Inflation - How it's measured content slideshow. Designed for the Economic A level qualification. Can be used in revision and in class.
Subtopics:
Intro to Inflation
Index Figures, Measuring Inflation
The CPI
RPI: An Alternative Measure of Inflation
2015 Fed Challenge
The document provides an overview of the current economic conditions in the United States, risks to the economy, a one-year forecast, and a policy recommendation from the Federal Reserve. It finds that aggregate demand is strengthening, labor markets are improving but still show some slack, and inflation remains below target. The forecast predicts real GDP growth of 2.7%, unemployment falling to 4.7%, and both overall and core PCE inflation around 1.7-1.8%. The policy recommendation is to raise the target federal funds rate range to 0.25-0.5% while continuing other quantitative easing programs.
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The document provides an economic update and outlook for India from the perspective of an advisory firm. It discusses positive developments in the domestic economy including higher than expected GDP growth in the first quarter and signs of recovery in industrial production. Inflation remains high but fuel prices are declining. The new government is pursuing reforms and the outlook is hopeful for continued economic revival. Globally, recovery is ongoing in the US and Eurozone which supports Indian markets, while falling oil prices are a major positive.
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This document discusses the relationship between GDP and consumption in Nepal. It finds that consumption is the single most important component of calculating GDP, making up more than 50% of GDP calculations in most countries. GDP and consumption are positively correlated, as a rise in consumption leads to a corresponding rise in GDP. The study analyzes data from Nepal from 1975 to 2011, finding a highly significant relationship between GDP and consumption, with consumption explaining 99.6% of the variation in GDP. It concludes that consumption fully depends on and increases with the level of GDP in Nepal.
The U.S. Economic Outlook
The U.S. economic outlook forecasts slow but sustained growth through 2025, with a slight rise in unemployment as inflation gradually returns to pre-pandemic levels. Inflation presents the greatest uncertainty, with balanced upside risks of lower inflation and faster growth and downside risks of higher inflation and slower growth. The Congressional Budget Office outlook similarly forecasts positive but slow growth insufficient to prevent higher unemployment, declining inflation as supply constraints ease, and falling interest rates as inflation decreases and monetary policy loosens. There is debate around how much recent high inflation reflects fundamental supply issues versus temporary pandemic disruptions.
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24
The document discusses various measures of inflation and cost of living. The consumer price index (CPI) measures the cost of typical household purchases and is used to track inflation. However, the CPI has limitations and may overstate inflation by about 1% annually due to substitution effects, new products, and unmeasured quality changes. The GDP deflator similarly measures price changes but for all goods and services produced rather than consumed. Price indexes are necessary to correct dollar amounts for inflation when making comparisons over time or calculating real interest rates.
24
The document discusses various measures of inflation and cost of living. The consumer price index (CPI) measures the cost of typical household purchases and is used to track inflation. However, the CPI has limitations and may overstate inflation by about 1% annually due to substitution effects, new products, and unmeasured quality changes. The GDP deflator similarly measures price changes but for all goods and services produced rather than consumed. Price indexes are necessary to correct dollar amounts for inflation when making comparisons over time or calculating real interest rates.
CBO’s Economic Forecasting Record: 2019 Update
1. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) prepares annual economic forecasts that underlie its federal budget projections, including key variables like output growth, unemployment, inflation, interest rates, and wages.
2. CBO evaluates the accuracy of its economic forecasts every two years. Its measures include mean error to assess bias, root mean square error to measure accuracy, and two-thirds spread to illustrate typical error ranges.
3. CBO's forecasts tend to be slightly more accurate and less biased than the Administration's, and on par with the Blue Chip consensus forecasts. Major sources of forecast errors include turning points in recessions, shifts in productivity trends, changes in oil prices, and persistent declines in interest rates.
Inflation - How it's measured
Inflation - How it's measured content slideshow. Designed for the Economic A level qualification. Can be used in revision and in class.
Subtopics:
Intro to Inflation
Index Figures, Measuring Inflation
The CPI
RPI: An Alternative Measure of Inflation
2015 Fed Challenge
The document provides an overview of the current economic conditions in the United States, risks to the economy, a one-year forecast, and a policy recommendation from the Federal Reserve. It finds that aggregate demand is strengthening, labor markets are improving but still show some slack, and inflation remains below target. The forecast predicts real GDP growth of 2.7%, unemployment falling to 4.7%, and both overall and core PCE inflation around 1.7-1.8%. The policy recommendation is to raise the target federal funds rate range to 0.25-0.5% while continuing other quantitative easing programs.
Advice for the wise september '14
The document provides an economic update and outlook for India from the perspective of an advisory firm. It discusses positive developments in the domestic economy including higher than expected GDP growth in the first quarter and signs of recovery in industrial production. Inflation remains high but fuel prices are declining. The new government is pursuing reforms and the outlook is hopeful for continued economic revival. Globally, recovery is ongoing in the US and Eurozone which supports Indian markets, while falling oil prices are a major positive.
Gross domestic product of nepal
This document discusses the relationship between GDP and consumption in Nepal. It finds that consumption is the single most important component of calculating GDP, making up more than 50% of GDP calculations in most countries. GDP and consumption are positively correlated, as a rise in consumption leads to a corresponding rise in GDP. The study analyzes data from Nepal from 1975 to 2011, finding a highly significant relationship between GDP and consumption, with consumption explaining 99.6% of the variation in GDP. It concludes that consumption fully depends on and increases with the level of GDP in Nepal.
The U.S. Economic Outlook
The U.S. economic outlook forecasts slow but sustained growth through 2025, with a slight rise in unemployment as inflation gradually returns to pre-pandemic levels. Inflation presents the greatest uncertainty, with balanced upside risks of lower inflation and faster growth and downside risks of higher inflation and slower growth. The Congressional Budget Office outlook similarly forecasts positive but slow growth insufficient to prevent higher unemployment, declining inflation as supply constraints ease, and falling interest rates as inflation decreases and monetary policy loosens. There is debate around how much recent high inflation reflects fundamental supply issues versus temporary pandemic disruptions.
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The document analyzes the relationship between interest rates and GDP in the United States over 30 years using IMF statistics. Descriptive statistics show GDP ranged from $35.79 million to $242.35 billion with an average of $47.05 billion, while interest rates ranged from 0.02% to 23.5% with an average of 4.3479%. Pearson correlation found a positive relationship between interest rates and GDP of 0.523. Regression analysis found a negative relationship, with a 1% increase in interest rates associated with a 0.121 decrease in GDP. The analysis suggests GDP and interest rates are inversely related, so governments should control interest rates to help manage GDP.
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1) The document analyzes macroeconomic variables like interest rates, exchange rates, money supply, inflation expectations, GDP, and inflation in China, India, Vietnam, and Indonesia from 2000 to 2017 to determine leading indicators of economic stability.
2) The ARDL panel analysis shows that leading indicators of controlling economic stability differ across countries. For India it is interest rates, exchange rates, money supply, inflation expectations, and GDP. For Vietnam it is interest rates, money supply, and GDP. For Indonesia it is interest rates and money supply, and for China it is money supply.
3) The analysis finds that money supply has a significant effect on inflation in the panel as a whole, but results vary by country
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The document summarizes an OECD report which finds that global economic growth remains weak due to low trade, investment, and commodity prices. While monetary policy has been accommodative, fiscal policy in major economies has been contractionary and the pace of structural reforms is insufficient. Collective fiscal action and faster structural reforms are needed to boost global demand and reduce financial stability risks from emerging markets' high debt loads and volatile capital flows.
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This document discusses key economic indicators like inflation and unemployment. It defines inflation, lists common inflation measures like the CPI and PPI, and outlines drawbacks of the CPI. Unemployment is defined as those without a job but seeking work. Common types of unemployment include frictional, structural, and cyclical. Factors like minimum wages and recessions can impact unemployment levels.
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This document discusses various topics related to inflation including:
1. Definitions of inflation, real vs nominal GDP and interest rates, and different indices used to measure inflation like the GDP deflator, CPI, and PPI.
2. Causes of inflation including demand shocks, supply shocks, and increases in the money supply from a Keynesian and monetarist perspective.
3. Costs of inflation such as its impact on savers, wage-price spirals, arbitrary redistributions of income, and disruption to business planning.
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This document defines inflation and discusses its causes, effects, measurement, relationship to unemployment, and control measures. It outlines several theories of inflation including demand-pull, cost-push, and structural inflation. Causes of each type are described. The document also discusses measuring inflation through price indices, the difference between the WPI and CPI, core inflation, and reforms to the CPI. The effects of inflation on different groups like fixed income classes, borrowers, lenders, producers, and the government are analyzed. Fiscal and monetary policy measures to control inflation are outlined. India's inflation rates from 2012-2014 are reported.
Chapter 03 inflation and the cost of living
The consumer price index (CPI) measures the cost of a basket of goods and services relative to a base year, and is used to measure inflation. The CPI has limitations as it does not account for substitution effects, new products, or quality changes. It tends to overstate inflation by around 1% annually. The GDP deflator differs from the CPI as it measures prices of all goods and services produced rather than consumed, and automatically updates the basket over time. High inflation can lead to costs like shoeleather costs and menu costs as people and businesses adjust to rising prices.
101114+-+Rising+cost+of+living
This document analyzes whether perceptions of rising cost of living are accurate or a myth. It discusses various measures used to assess cost of living, including the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and other indices. While the CPI may overstate cost of living increases due to certain biases, other measures show similar increases over the past decade. Analysis of cost of living indices by demographics, income levels, and geography found only minor differences in cost of living growth rates. Wages have largely kept pace with cost of living increases at an aggregate level.
Monetary policy in the face of large supply shocks
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This document provides an overview of key economic indicators and concepts including:
1. Economic trends are measured using indicators like Gross National Product (GNP) and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to analyze a country's economic performance.
2. GNP measures the total value of goods and services produced by a country's citizens both domestically and abroad, while GDP only includes domestic production.
3. Other indicators discussed include Net National Product (NNP), Net Domestic Product (NDP), Balance of Payments, inflation rates, Wholesale Price Index, and Consumer Price Index.
4. Full employment, quality of life, and the effects of inflation on economies are also summarized.
CBO's Outlook for the Economy
Douglas Elmendorf, director of the Congressional Budget Office, presented CBO's economic outlook. CBO projects that the labor market recovery will continue slowly as structural issues and long-term unemployment impact participation rates. Potential GDP growth is estimated to average 2.1% through 2024 while actual GDP growth is projected to average 2.5% as the output gap closes. Inflation and interest rates are expected to remain low. The budget deficit is projected to decline but debt held by the public will continue rising as a share of GDP.
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Measuring The Cost of living
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures changes in the cost of a fixed basket of goods and services purchased by typical consumers. Statistics BD identifies a market basket of commonly purchased items and surveys prices to calculate the CPI, which tracks costs over time. The CPI is used to calculate inflation rates by comparing costs in the current period to a base year. While useful, the CPI has limitations as it does not account for substitutions, new products, or quality changes that affect consumers' actual cost of living. Economic data can be adjusted for inflation effects by using price indexes to convert nominal values into real terms.
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The document discusses different methods for estimating core inflation rates in the UK. It compares exclusion-based measures that remove volatile components like food and energy, to trimmed mean estimates that remove a certain percentage of prices changes from the top and bottom of the distribution. The trimmed mean approach produces a lower annual inflation rate of 5.4% compared to the headline rate of 8.6%. Core inflation estimates provide insight into underlying inflation pressures after accounting for erratic price movements.
State of the Construction Industry Report (2015)
This document provides an executive summary and analysis of the anticipated performance of the U.S. construction industry in 2015. It finds that while the construction industry rebounded in 2014, growth outpaced GDP and private sector growth continues, public sector construction is also showing signs of improvement. The U.S. economy is growing steadily but corporate profits are high while wages are still low. Inflation remains below targets due to falling energy prices, and the Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates in 2015 to address inflation, which will impact some industries. Overall, 2015 is forecast to be a strong growth year for construction.
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This document provides an executive summary and analysis of the anticipated performance of the U.S. construction industry in 2015. It finds that while the construction industry rebounded in 2014, growth outpaced GDP and private sector growth continues, public sector construction is also showing signs of improvement. The U.S. economy is growing steadily but corporate profits are high while wages are still low. Inflation remains below targets due to falling energy prices, and the Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates in 2015 to address inflation, which will impact some industries. Overall, 2015 is forecast to be a strong growth year for construction.
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US FOMC Released the data and projections of Expected US Economy in Medium Term. The Data is Revision. Economic forecast is subdued
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Built a model (p-value = 2.155 e -09) using R to predict the United States unemployment rate one year in advance.
12 the relationship between the interest rate and gdp lev
The document analyzes the relationship between interest rates and GDP in the United States over 30 years using IMF statistics. Descriptive statistics show GDP ranged from $35.79 million to $242.35 billion with an average of $47.05 billion, while interest rates ranged from 0.02% to 23.5% with an average of 4.3479%. Pearson correlation found a positive relationship between interest rates and GDP of 0.523. Regression analysis found a negative relationship, with a 1% increase in interest rates associated with a 0.121 decrease in GDP. The analysis suggests GDP and interest rates are inversely related, so governments should control interest rates to help manage GDP.
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1) The document analyzes macroeconomic variables like interest rates, exchange rates, money supply, inflation expectations, GDP, and inflation in China, India, Vietnam, and Indonesia from 2000 to 2017 to determine leading indicators of economic stability.
2) The ARDL panel analysis shows that leading indicators of controlling economic stability differ across countries. For India it is interest rates, exchange rates, money supply, inflation expectations, and GDP. For Vietnam it is interest rates, money supply, and GDP. For Indonesia it is interest rates and money supply, and for China it is money supply.
3) The analysis finds that money supply has a significant effect on inflation in the panel as a whole, but results vary by country
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The document summarizes key points from the UK's 2021 budget. It notes that GDP growth is forecast to be stronger than expected while inflation will be sharply higher. Spending increases are frontloaded in the budget while larger deficit reductions will come later. Most of the increase in departmental spending since 2009 has gone to health. Real wages are only expected to rise 2.4% by 2024, lower than previous growth. The poorest fifth will on average be £280 worse off due to changes while taxes will rise £3,000 per household under the current Prime Minister.
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The document summarizes an OECD report which finds that global economic growth remains weak due to low trade, investment, and commodity prices. While monetary policy has been accommodative, fiscal policy in major economies has been contractionary and the pace of structural reforms is insufficient. Collective fiscal action and faster structural reforms are needed to boost global demand and reduce financial stability risks from emerging markets.
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This document discusses key economic indicators like inflation and unemployment. It defines inflation, lists common inflation measures like the CPI and PPI, and outlines drawbacks of the CPI. Unemployment is defined as those without a job but seeking work. Common types of unemployment include frictional, structural, and cyclical. Factors like minimum wages and recessions can impact unemployment levels.
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This document discusses various topics related to inflation including:
1. Definitions of inflation, real vs nominal GDP and interest rates, and different indices used to measure inflation like the GDP deflator, CPI, and PPI.
2. Causes of inflation including demand shocks, supply shocks, and increases in the money supply from a Keynesian and monetarist perspective.
3. Costs of inflation such as its impact on savers, wage-price spirals, arbitrary redistributions of income, and disruption to business planning.
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This document defines inflation and discusses its causes, effects, measurement, relationship to unemployment, and control measures. It outlines several theories of inflation including demand-pull, cost-push, and structural inflation. Causes of each type are described. The document also discusses measuring inflation through price indices, the difference between the WPI and CPI, core inflation, and reforms to the CPI. The effects of inflation on different groups like fixed income classes, borrowers, lenders, producers, and the government are analyzed. Fiscal and monetary policy measures to control inflation are outlined. India's inflation rates from 2012-2014 are reported.
Chapter 03 inflation and the cost of living
The consumer price index (CPI) measures the cost of a basket of goods and services relative to a base year, and is used to measure inflation. The CPI has limitations as it does not account for substitution effects, new products, or quality changes. It tends to overstate inflation by around 1% annually. The GDP deflator differs from the CPI as it measures prices of all goods and services produced rather than consumed, and automatically updates the basket over time. High inflation can lead to costs like shoeleather costs and menu costs as people and businesses adjust to rising prices.
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This document analyzes whether perceptions of rising cost of living are accurate or a myth. It discusses various measures used to assess cost of living, including the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and other indices. While the CPI may overstate cost of living increases due to certain biases, other measures show similar increases over the past decade. Analysis of cost of living indices by demographics, income levels, and geography found only minor differences in cost of living growth rates. Wages have largely kept pace with cost of living increases at an aggregate level.
Monetary policy in the face of large supply shocks
Presentation at Resolution Foundation event hosting MPC Member Silvana Tenreyro's valedictory speech.
Indices of economic trends
This document provides an overview of key economic indicators and concepts including:
1. Economic trends are measured using indicators like Gross National Product (GNP) and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to analyze a country's economic performance.
2. GNP measures the total value of goods and services produced by a country's citizens both domestically and abroad, while GDP only includes domestic production.
3. Other indicators discussed include Net National Product (NNP), Net Domestic Product (NDP), Balance of Payments, inflation rates, Wholesale Price Index, and Consumer Price Index.
4. Full employment, quality of life, and the effects of inflation on economies are also summarized.
CBO's Outlook for the Economy
Douglas Elmendorf, director of the Congressional Budget Office, presented CBO's economic outlook. CBO projects that the labor market recovery will continue slowly as structural issues and long-term unemployment impact participation rates. Potential GDP growth is estimated to average 2.1% through 2024 while actual GDP growth is projected to average 2.5% as the output gap closes. Inflation and interest rates are expected to remain low. The budget deficit is projected to decline but debt held by the public will continue rising as a share of GDP.
Ready for the next recession? Assessing the UK’s macroeconomic framework
The UK economy is facing its highest risk of recession since 2007, as Brexit uncertainty and global instability loom large. When the next downturn will arrive is impossible to say, but now is a good time to ensure that we are ready to respond. Crucially the world has moved on since we last prepared our framework – the tools we used to fight the last recession won’t necessarily work for the next one.
How severe are the constraints of near zero interest rates on monetary policy? What is the potential for Quantitative Easing to replay its major financial crisis role? And while there is a generally accepted case for a wider role for fiscal policy, are we ready to deploy it as effectively as possible?
The Resolution Foundation is setting up a new Macroeconomic Policy Unit to get to the bottom of these big economic questions and more. To mark its launch, the Foundation hosted an event that brought together leading macroeconomists and policy makers. The launch included the publishing of a comprehensive assessment of the UK’s current macroeconomic policy framework. Speakers included MPC Member Gertjan Vlieghe and Head of Bloomberg Economics Stephanie Flanders.
Speakers:
Gertjan Vlieghe, Member of the Monetary Policy Committee
Stephanie Flanders, Head of Bloomberg Economics
Kate Barker, Former MPC member
Rupert Harrison, Portfolio Manager at Blackrock
James Smith, Research Director at the Resolution Foundation
Torsten Bell, Chief Executive of the Resolution Foundation (Chair)
Measuring The Cost of living
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures changes in the cost of a fixed basket of goods and services purchased by typical consumers. Statistics BD identifies a market basket of commonly purchased items and surveys prices to calculate the CPI, which tracks costs over time. The CPI is used to calculate inflation rates by comparing costs in the current period to a base year. While useful, the CPI has limitations as it does not account for substitutions, new products, or quality changes that affect consumers' actual cost of living. Economic data can be adjusted for inflation effects by using price indexes to convert nominal values into real terms.
ONS Economic Forum - 10 October 2022
The document discusses different methods for estimating core inflation rates in the UK. It compares exclusion-based measures that remove volatile components like food and energy, to trimmed mean estimates that remove a certain percentage of prices changes from the top and bottom of the distribution. The trimmed mean approach produces a lower annual inflation rate of 5.4% compared to the headline rate of 8.6%. Core inflation estimates provide insight into underlying inflation pressures after accounting for erratic price movements.
State of the Construction Industry Report (2015)
This document provides an executive summary and analysis of the anticipated performance of the U.S. construction industry in 2015. It finds that while the construction industry rebounded in 2014, growth outpaced GDP and private sector growth continues, public sector construction is also showing signs of improvement. The U.S. economy is growing steadily but corporate profits are high while wages are still low. Inflation remains below targets due to falling energy prices, and the Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates in 2015 to address inflation, which will impact some industries. Overall, 2015 is forecast to be a strong growth year for construction.
2015 State of the Construction Industry
This document provides an executive summary and analysis of the anticipated performance of the U.S. construction industry in 2015. It finds that while the construction industry rebounded in 2014, growth outpaced GDP and private sector growth continues, public sector construction is also showing signs of improvement. The U.S. economy is growing steadily but corporate profits are high while wages are still low. Inflation remains below targets due to falling energy prices, and the Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates in 2015 to address inflation, which will impact some industries. Overall, 2015 is forecast to be a strong growth year for construction.
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Presentation by Elizabeth Ash, William Carrington, Rebecca Heller, and Grace Hwang of CBO’s Labor, Income Security, and Long-Term Analysis and Health Analysis divisions to the Children’s Health Group, American Academy of Pediatrics. CBO’s Role and Most Recent Long-Term Budget Projections
Presentation by Molly Dahl, Chief of CBO’s Long-Term Analysis Unit, at a meeting of the National Conference of State Legislatures’ Budget Working Group.
Atlas of Military Compensation
In the President’s 2024 budget request, total military compensation is $551 billion, including veterans' benefits. That amount represents an increase of 134 percent since 1999 after removing the effects of inflation.
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The U.S. Budget and Economic Outlook (Presentation)
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CBO’s Recent Appeals for New Research on Health-Related Topics
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How the Congressional Budget Office Assists Lawmakers
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The Budget and Economic Outlook for 2024 to 2034: Press Briefing Slides
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Using Multiple Data Sources to Learn About the Race and Ethnicity of Taxpayers
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The 2024 Outlook for Navy Shipbuilding: Familiar Plans and Higher Costs
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Exploring the Effects of Medicaid During Childhood on the Economy and the Budget
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AHMR volume 10 number 1 January-April 2024
AHMR is an interdisciplinary peer-reviewed online journal created to encourage and facilitate the study of all aspects (socio-economic, political, legislative and developmental) of Human Mobility in Africa. Through the publication of original research, policy discussions and evidence research papers AHMR provides a comprehensive forum devoted exclusively to the analysis of contemporaneous trends, migration patterns and some of the most important migration-related issues.
Border towns and spaces of (in)visibility.pdf
This report explores the significance of border towns and spaces for strengthening responses to young people on the move. In particular it explores the linkages of young people to local service centres with the aim of further developing service, protection, and support strategies for migrant children in border areas across the region. The report is based on a small-scale fieldwork study in the border towns of Chipata and Katete in Zambia conducted in July 2023. Border towns and spaces provide a rich source of information about issues related to the informal or irregular movement of young people across borders, including smuggling and trafficking. They can help build a picture of the nature and scope of the type of movement young migrants undertake and also the forms of protection available to them. Border towns and spaces also provide a lens through which we can better understand the vulnerabilities of young people on the move and, critically, the strategies they use to navigate challenges and access support.
The findings in this report highlight some of the key factors shaping the experiences and vulnerabilities of young people on the move – particularly their proximity to border spaces and how this affects the risks that they face. The report describes strategies that young people on the move employ to remain below the radar of visibility to state and non-state actors due to fear of arrest, detention, and deportation while also trying to keep themselves safe and access support in border towns. These strategies of (in)visibility provide a way to protect themselves yet at the same time also heighten some of the risks young people face as their vulnerabilities are not always recognised by those who could offer support.
In this report we show that the realities and challenges of life and migration in this region and in Zambia need to be better understood for support to be strengthened and tuned to meet the specific needs of young people on the move. This includes understanding the role of state and non-state stakeholders, the impact of laws and policies and, critically, the experiences of the young people themselves. We provide recommendations for immediate action, recommendations for programming to support young people on the move in the two towns that would reduce risk for young people in this area, and recommendations for longer term policy advocacy.
A guide to the International day of Potatoes 2024 - May 30th
Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO)
Transit-Oriented Development Study Working Group Meeting
This presentation on TOD best practices and model zoning was shared with the Cuyahoga County TOD working group on June 5, 2024.
加急办理华威大学毕业证硕士文凭证书原版一模一样
原版一模一样【微信：741003700 】【华威大学毕业证硕士文凭证书】【微信：741003700 】学位证，留信认证（真实可查，永久存档）offer、雅思、外壳等材料/诚信可靠,可直接看成品样本，帮您解决无法毕业带来的各种难题！外壳，原版制作，诚信可靠，可直接看成品样本。行业标杆！精益求精，诚心合作，真诚制作！多年品质 ,按需精细制作，24小时接单,全套进口原装设备。十五年致力于帮助留学生解决难题，包您满意。
本公司拥有海外各大学样板无数，能完美还原海外各大学 Bachelor Diploma degree, Master Degree Diploma
1:1完美还原海外各大学毕业材料上的工艺：水印，阴影底纹，钢印LOGO烫金烫银，LOGO烫金烫银复合重叠。文字图案浮雕、激光镭射、紫外荧光、温感、复印防伪等防伪工艺。材料咨询办理、认证咨询办理请加学历顾问Q/微741003700
留信网认证的作用:
1:该专业认证可证明留学生真实身份
2:同时对留学生所学专业登记给予评定
3:国家专业人才认证中心颁发入库证书
4:这个认证书并且可以归档倒地方
5:凡事获得留信网入网的信息将会逐步更新到个人身份内，将在公安局网内查询个人身份证信息后，同步读取人才网入库信息
6:个人职称评审加20分
7:个人信誉贷款加10分
8:在国家人才网主办的国家网络招聘大会中纳入资料，供国家高端企业选择人才
Awaken new depths - World Ocean Day 2024, June 8th.
UN WOD 2024 will take us on a journey of discovery through the ocean's vastness, tapping into the wisdom and expertise of global policy-makers, scientists, managers, thought leaders, and artists to awaken new depths of understanding, compassion, collaboration and commitment for the ocean and all it sustains. The program will expand our perspectives and appreciation for our blue planet, build new foundations for our relationship to the ocean, and ignite a wave of action toward necessary change.
PUBLIC FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT SYSTEM (PFMS) and DBT.pptx
PUBLIC FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT SYSTEM (PFMS) and DBT - EXPLANATION
原版制作(Hope毕业证书)利物浦霍普大学毕业证文凭证书一模一样
学校原件一模一样【微信：741003700 】《(Hope毕业证书)利物浦霍普大学毕业证文凭证书》【微信：741003700 】学位证，留信认证（真实可查，永久存档）原件一模一样纸张工艺/offer、雅思、外壳等材料/诚信可靠,可直接看成品样本，帮您解决无法毕业带来的各种难题！外壳，原版制作，诚信可靠，可直接看成品样本。行业标杆！精益求精，诚心合作，真诚制作！多年品质 ,按需精细制作，24小时接单,全套进口原装设备。十五年致力于帮助留学生解决难题，包您满意。
本公司拥有海外各大学样板无数，能完美还原。
1:1完美还原海外各大学毕业材料上的工艺：水印，阴影底纹，钢印LOGO烫金烫银，LOGO烫金烫银复合重叠。文字图案浮雕、激光镭射、紫外荧光、温感、复印防伪等防伪工艺。材料咨询办理、认证咨询办理请加学历顾问Q/微741003700
【主营项目】
一.毕业证【q微741003700】成绩单、使馆认证、教育部认证、雅思托福成绩单、学生卡等！
二.真实使馆公证(即留学回国人员证明,不成功不收费)
三.真实教育部学历学位认证（教育部存档！教育部留服网站永久可查）
四.办理各国各大学文凭(一对一专业服务,可全程监控跟踪进度)
如果您处于以下几种情况：
◇在校期间，因各种原因未能顺利毕业……拿不到官方毕业证【q/微741003700】
◇面对父母的压力，希望尽快拿到；
◇不清楚认证流程以及材料该如何准备；
◇回国时间很长，忘记办理；
◇回国马上就要找工作，办给用人单位看；
◇企事业单位必须要求办理的
◇需要报考公务员、购买免税车、落转户口
◇申请留学生创业基金
留信网认证的作用:
1:该专业认证可证明留学生真实身份
2:同时对留学生所学专业登记给予评定
3:国家专业人才认证中心颁发入库证书
4:这个认证书并且可以归档倒地方
5:凡事获得留信网入网的信息将会逐步更新到个人身份内，将在公安局网内查询个人身份证信息后，同步读取人才网入库信息
6:个人职称评审加20分
7:个人信誉贷款加10分
8:在国家人才网主办的国家网络招聘大会中纳入资料，供国家高端企业选择人才
IEA World Energy Investment June 2024- Statistics
IEA World Energy Investment Report 2024
Publication: June 2024
RFP for Reno's Community Assistance Center
Property appraisals completed in May for downtown Reno’s Community Assistance and Triage Centers (CAC) reveal that repairing the buildings to bring them back into service would cost an estimated $10.1 million—nearly four times the amount previously reported by city staff.
World Food Safety Day 2024- Communication-toolkit.
Food safety, prepare for the unexpected - So what can be done in order to be ready to address food safety, food Consumers, food producers and manufacturers, food transporters, food businesses, food retailers can ...
原版制作(英国Southampton毕业证书)南安普顿大学毕业证录取通知书一模一样
学校原件一模一样【微信：741003700 】《(英国Southampton毕业证书)南安普顿大学毕业证》【微信：741003700 】学位证，留信认证（真实可查，永久存档）原件一模一样纸张工艺/offer、雅思、外壳等材料/诚信可靠,可直接看成品样本，帮您解决无法毕业带来的各种难题！外壳，原版制作，诚信可靠，可直接看成品样本。行业标杆！精益求精，诚心合作，真诚制作！多年品质 ,按需精细制作，24小时接单,全套进口原装设备。十五年致力于帮助留学生解决难题，包您满意。
本公司拥有海外各大学样板无数，能完美还原。
1:1完美还原海外各大学毕业材料上的工艺：水印，阴影底纹，钢印LOGO烫金烫银，LOGO烫金烫银复合重叠。文字图案浮雕、激光镭射、紫外荧光、温感、复印防伪等防伪工艺。材料咨询办理、认证咨询办理请加学历顾问Q/微741003700
【主营项目】
一.毕业证【q微741003700】成绩单、使馆认证、教育部认证、雅思托福成绩单、学生卡等！
二.真实使馆公证(即留学回国人员证明,不成功不收费)
三.真实教育部学历学位认证（教育部存档！教育部留服网站永久可查）
四.办理各国各大学文凭(一对一专业服务,可全程监控跟踪进度)
如果您处于以下几种情况：
◇在校期间，因各种原因未能顺利毕业……拿不到官方毕业证【q/微741003700】
◇面对父母的压力，希望尽快拿到；
◇不清楚认证流程以及材料该如何准备；
◇回国时间很长，忘记办理；
◇回国马上就要找工作，办给用人单位看；
◇企事业单位必须要求办理的
◇需要报考公务员、购买免税车、落转户口
◇申请留学生创业基金
留信网认证的作用:
1:该专业认证可证明留学生真实身份
2:同时对留学生所学专业登记给予评定
3:国家专业人才认证中心颁发入库证书
4:这个认证书并且可以归档倒地方
5:凡事获得留信网入网的信息将会逐步更新到个人身份内，将在公安局网内查询个人身份证信息后，同步读取人才网入库信息
6:个人职称评审加20分
7:个人信誉贷款加10分
8:在国家人才网主办的国家网络招聘大会中纳入资料，供国家高端企业选择人才
原版制作(DPU毕业证书)德保罗大学毕业证Offer一模一样
学校原件一模一样【微信：741003700 】《(DPU毕业证书)德保罗大学毕业证》【微信：741003700 】学位证，留信认证（真实可查，永久存档）原件一模一样纸张工艺/offer、雅思、外壳等材料/诚信可靠,可直接看成品样本，帮您解决无法毕业带来的各种难题！外壳，原版制作，诚信可靠，可直接看成品样本。行业标杆！精益求精，诚心合作，真诚制作！多年品质 ,按需精细制作，24小时接单,全套进口原装设备。十五年致力于帮助留学生解决难题，包您满意。
本公司拥有海外各大学样板无数，能完美还原。
1:1完美还原海外各大学毕业材料上的工艺：水印，阴影底纹，钢印LOGO烫金烫银，LOGO烫金烫银复合重叠。文字图案浮雕、激光镭射、紫外荧光、温感、复印防伪等防伪工艺。材料咨询办理、认证咨询办理请加学历顾问Q/微741003700
【主营项目】
一.毕业证【q微741003700】成绩单、使馆认证、教育部认证、雅思托福成绩单、学生卡等！
二.真实使馆公证(即留学回国人员证明,不成功不收费)
三.真实教育部学历学位认证（教育部存档！教育部留服网站永久可查）
四.办理各国各大学文凭(一对一专业服务,可全程监控跟踪进度)
如果您处于以下几种情况：
◇在校期间，因各种原因未能顺利毕业……拿不到官方毕业证【q/微741003700】
◇面对父母的压力，希望尽快拿到；
◇不清楚认证流程以及材料该如何准备；
◇回国时间很长，忘记办理；
◇回国马上就要找工作，办给用人单位看；
◇企事业单位必须要求办理的
◇需要报考公务员、购买免税车、落转户口
◇申请留学生创业基金
留信网认证的作用:
1:该专业认证可证明留学生真实身份
2:同时对留学生所学专业登记给予评定
3:国家专业人才认证中心颁发入库证书
4:这个认证书并且可以归档倒地方
5:凡事获得留信网入网的信息将会逐步更新到个人身份内，将在公安局网内查询个人身份证信息后，同步读取人才网入库信息
6:个人职称评审加20分
7:个人信誉贷款加10分
8:在国家人才网主办的国家网络招聘大会中纳入资料，供国家高端企业选择人才
United Nations World Oceans Day 2024; June 8th " Awaken new dephts".
The program will expand our perspectives and appreciation for our blue planet, build new foundations for our relationship to the ocean, and ignite a wave of action toward necessary change.
A Guide to AI for Smarter Nonprofits - Dr. Cori Faklaris, UNC Charlotte
A Guide to AI for Smarter Nonprofits - Dr. Cori Faklaris, UNC CharlotteUniversity of North Carolina at Charlotte
Working with data is a challenge for many organizations. Nonprofits in particular may need to collect and analyze sensitive, incomplete, and/or biased historical data about people. In this talk, Dr. Cori Faklaris of UNC Charlotte provides an overview of current AI capabilities and weaknesses to consider when integrating current AI technologies into the data workflow. The talk is organized around three takeaways: (1) For better or sometimes worse, AI provides you with “infinite interns.” (2) Give people permission & guardrails to learn what works with these “interns” and what doesn’t. (3) Create a roadmap for adding in more AI to assist nonprofit work, along with strategies for bias mitigation.
Contributi dei parlamentari del PD - Contributi L. 3/2019
DI SEGUITO SONO PUBBLICATI, AI SENSI DELL'ART. 11 DELLA LEGGE N. 3/2019, GLI IMPORTI RICEVUTI DALL'ENTRATA IN VIGORE DELLA SUDDETTA NORMA (31/01/2019) E FINO AL MESE SOLARE ANTECEDENTE QUELLO DELLA PUBBLICAZIONE SUL PRESENTE SITO
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A guide to the International day of Potatoes 2024 - May 30th
A guide to the International day of Potatoes 2024 - May 30th
Transit-Oriented Development Study Working Group Meeting
Transit-Oriented Development Study Working Group Meeting
Awaken new depths - World Ocean Day 2024, June 8th.
Awaken new depths - World Ocean Day 2024, June 8th.
PUBLIC FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT SYSTEM (PFMS) and DBT.pptx
PUBLIC FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT SYSTEM (PFMS) and DBT.pptx
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World Food Safety Day 2024- Communication-toolkit.
World Food Safety Day 2024- Communication-toolkit.
United Nations World Oceans Day 2024; June 8th " Awaken new dephts".
United Nations World Oceans Day 2024; June 8th " Awaken new dephts".
A Guide to AI for Smarter Nonprofits - Dr. Cori Faklaris, UNC Charlotte
A Guide to AI for Smarter Nonprofits - Dr. Cori Faklaris, UNC Charlotte
Contributi dei parlamentari del PD - Contributi L. 3/2019
Contributi dei parlamentari del PD - Contributi L. 3/2019
How CBO Forecasts Inflation
- 1. Presentation to the Society of Actuaries September 7, 2022 Bob Arnold Macroeconomic Analysis Division How CBO Forecasts Inflation
- 2. 1 Background § Inflation: A rise in the overall price level, measured using a price index, and usually expressed as an annual rate of change. § Overall Inflation – GDP Price Index § Consumer Price Inflation – CPI-U: Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers – PCEPI: Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index § Core Consumer Price Inflation – CPI excluding food and energy – PCEPI excluding food and energy – Trimmed mean CPI and median CPI (Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland) – “Sticky-price” CPI (Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta)
- 3. 2 Inflation is measured from the fourth quarter of one calendar year to the fourth quarter of the next. PCE and Core PCE Inflation
- 4. 3 The Phillips Curve π! = απ" + β U! − U∗ + 𝛾𝑍$ + 𝜖$ • Where πt = inflation (for example, the percentage change in PCEPI) πe = expected inflation Ut = unemployment rate U* = noncyclical rate of unemployment Zt = supply-shock variables (for example, energy and import prices; productivity growth) • Factors: inflation expectations, economic slack, and supply shocks • Focus: Beta parameter ( β ) – Determines how sensitive inflation is to slack – Unemployment gap (Ut – U*) is a measure of labor market slack
- 5. 4 The unemployment gap is the difference between the unemployment rate and the noncyclical rate of unemployment. Core PCE inflation is measured as the rate of growth from one quarter to the next, annualized. The change in inflation is calculated as the difference in inflation from one quarter to the next. The Unemployment Gap and the Change in Core PCE Inflation
- 6. 5 The unemployment gap is the difference between the unemployment rate and the noncyclical rate of unemployment. Housing services inflation is measured as the rate of growth from one quarter to the next, annualized. The change in inflation is calculated as the difference in inflation from one quarter to the next. Unemployment Gap and the Change in Inflation in Housing Services
- 7. 6 For 2017 through 2021, inflation is calculated from the fourth quarter of one calendar year to the fourth quarter of the next. For the first half of 2022, inflation is calculated from the fourth quarter of 2021 to the second quarter of 2022, annualized. Contributions to the Change in PCE Inflation
- 8. 7 Inflation is measured from the fourth quarter of one calendar year to the fourth quarter of the next. A Comparison of CBO’s Forecasts of Inflation With Those in the Survey of Professional Forecasters